Global Agriculture Markets: Today and

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1 Global Agriculture Markets: Today and Tomorrow AgriEvolution Summit New Delhi, India JB Penn Chief Economist December 5,

2 bal Agriculture Markets: Today and Tomorrow Brief Historic Review ( ) 2013) Subtle Market Structure Shifts Occurring Looking Beyond 2013 Concluding Observations 2

3 Brief Historic Review 3

4 Brief Historic Review Global Agriculture Markets Period of unprecedented prosperity in developedd country agriculture Key drivers: population and income growth, urbanization -Dietary shifts -Renewed attention to developing country agriculture Now, another market transition? 4

5 12 Global Macro Economy World GDP growth rates Annual % Change Developed Developing F 2016F 2018F -4 Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook, October 08,

6 GDP Growth Rates % change F European Union Commonwealth of Independent States Latin America and the Caribbean United States Central and eastern Europe ASEAN-5 Sub-Saharan Africa Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook, October 08,

7 Population Growth and Distribution 2000 to Billions More Developed Regions* Less Developed Regions Least Developed Regions B 7.2B 9.6B B % 4% 56% 30% 9% Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook, October 08,

8 Urbanization: Rural-Urban Population Shift 7 6 Population in Billion Urban Rural Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects, The 2009 Revision Population Database 8

9 Commodity Index Prices, Jan 1990 Nov USD Nominal Food Metals Fuel Commodity Metals Price Index, 2005 = 100, includes Copper, Aluminum, Iron Ore, Tin, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, and Uranium Price Indices Commodity Fuel (energy) Index, 2005 = 100, includes Crude oil (petroleum), Natural Gas, and Coal Price Indices Commodity Food Price Index, 2005 = 100, includes Cereal, Vegetable Oils, Meat, Seafood, Sugar, Bananas, and Oranges Price Indices Source: IMF Primary Commodity Prices 9

10 Subtle Market Structure Shifts Oc ccurring 10

11 Global Grain Market Dynamics Major shifts underway since 2000 not widely recognized Competitiveness among producing regions slowly shifting due to: On farm technology cost/ton at farm gate Infrastructure investment cost/ton at export location Government policies shifting: Subsidies policies shifting in developed and developing 11

12 Major Grain Exporterr Market Shares Shifting 40% 1990s Avg. 2000s Avg. 2010s Avg. 20% 0% United States Canada EU-27 Other 10% 5% 0% Argentina Australia Ukraine Brazil Russia India Kazakhstan Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, Official USDA Estimates, September

13 US Dominant Role Declining Sharply 400 MMT US Grain Exports Share of Global Exports 60% % % % US Exports Global Export Total US Exports as % of Global Exports (right axis) Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, Official USDA Estimates, September

14 Soy Market Shares Also Shifting 80% Share of World Export 70% 60% % of expo orts 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% U.S. Argentina Brazil All Others Source: Informa Economics, Weekly Soybean Complex, June

15 Non-traditional Exporters Are Less Stable Productio Regions coefficient of variation Argentina & Brazil Australia Ukraine Russia Kazakhstan 20 Canada US 15 World Average 10 EU Growing market instability likely as importance of non-traditional suppliers grows price volatility, political instability, trade disruptions Source: Informa Economics, Weekly Soybean Complex, June

16 Global Grain Market Dynamics -Inaddition tonew consumers 1.1B since 2000 mostly in lower latitudes - New export producers also emerged 16

17 China Emerges As Major Soy Importer (circa MMT World Share 45% Imports % of Global Soy Exports 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, Official USDA Estimates, September

18 China Leaves Global Wheat Market MMT Trade Balance MMT Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, Official USDA Estimates, September 2013 Forecast to import 8.5 MMT in 2013/

19 14 MMT Whither China and the Global Corn Market? Trade Balance 4-6 Corn: from 3 MMT (2012) to MMT (2022) Forecast 7 MMT for 2013/2014 Will corn be added to soy as a basic import? Or import pork? Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, Official USDA Estimates, September

20 Brazil Gains Preeminencee as Global Agriculture Exporter (circa 2000) Captures much of global soy trade growth Rapidly expands grain, meat, poultry export sales Third-largest agricultural exporter (value) after US and EU 120 MMT #1 exporter: coffee, soy, beef, sugar, ethanol and frozen chickens 30% Grain Exports 80 20% Soy Exports Global Grain/Soy Share (right axis) 40 10% 0 0% Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, Official USDA Estimates, September

21 Increasing Reliance on South American Exports 70 MMT World Share 70% % % Corn Soy Corn (% of world) Soy (% of world) Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, Official USDA Estimates, September

22 Black Sea Sector Stabilizes After USSR Breakup and La 1990s Crisis Enormous Potential 200 MMT World Share 12% Production Exports Share Of World Production 150 8% 100 4% Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, Official USDA Estimates, November % 22 22

23 Looking Beyond

24 Looking Beyond 2013: Global Grains 2,500 (MMT) Production Consumption 2,300 2,100 1,900 1, F Source: USDA/WASDE, November

25 Global Grains Stocks to Use: 74 Days 600 (MMT) 32% 500 Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 28% Yr Avg. = 20% 24% 20% % F Source: USDA/WASDE, November % 25

26 Northern Hemisphere Harvesting Large Grain Crops Source: USDA PSD report, November, Country 2012 (mmt) 2013F (mmt) EU China 477 USA 354 Russia 67 Canada 52 Ukraine 45 India produced 239 MMT in 2012/13, and 240 MMT in 2013/14 1% increase Large Southern Hemisphe ere Crops Again in Prospect for /2014 Corn 26.5 Soy 49.4 Corn 81 Soy 82 Argentina (mmt) Brazil (mmt) Planting conditions in Southern Hemisphere Now Market Focus Change 304 8% 480 1% % 88 31% 59 15% 60 32% Temperature, moisture, and soil conditions dominate next few weeks 26

27 Ag Commodity Prices Seeking New Trading Range US Wheat Prices Received by Farmers, $/MT $280/mt $220/mt 1970 to 2005 Average = $ to 1939 Average = $ to 1969 Average = $61.8 Source: USDA Feed Grains Database, November

28 Ag Commodity Prices Seeking New Trading Range US Corn Prices Received by Farmers, $/MT 200 $220/mt to 2005 Average = $89.6 $160/mt to 1939 Average = $ to 1969 Average = $ F Source: USDA Feed Grains Database, October

29 Observations 29

30 Concluding Observations Period of unprecedented prosperity driven by largely external forces Sector structure/markets changed significantly still not widely recognized calls for new mental models After 2013 few parallels entirely new situation Ag commodity markets seeing new trading range worldwide weather will be key determinant for

31 Global Agriculture Markets: Today and Tomorrow AgriEvolution Summit New Delhi, India JB Penn Chief Economist December 5,

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