Virginia Department of Transportation Weather and Pavement Forecasting RFP (May 1998)

Transcription

1 Virginia Department of Transportation Weather and Pavement Forecasting RFP (May 1998) Document Outline: General Information Project Description Concept of Operation Mandatory Requirements Statement of Qualifications - Minimum Inclusions - Scope of Work Technical Memorandum - Understanding of Virginia Climatology - Knowledge of VDOT s Roads and Winter Maintenance Practices - Provide two (2) 24-hour forecasts per day from October 15 through April 15, and one (1) 24-hour forecast per day from April 16 through October 14, and updates as required - Providing an outlook for the 24 to 72 hour period from forecast time - Providing advance warning for snowfall between a trace and up to 2 inches - Providing advance warning for snowfall greater than 2 inches and any freezing precipitation - Precipitation Forecasts - Wind Direction and Speed Forecasts - Air and Dew Point Temperature Forecasts - Frost Forecasts - Delivery of Forecasts and Updates - Provide unlimited toll-free access to forecast center Reporting Requirements - Average timing error for forecast start and stop times - Average advance warning time - Forecast verification - Submittal of statistics - Post-winter Conference Cost Proposal

2 Cost Information: The total cost of the forecasting contract resulting from the weather and pavement forecasting RFP was $105, Cost details of the line items under the forecasting contract are listed below: Item Months Unit Price Total Price 27 SCANCAST, pavement surface conditions 6 $ $54, and complete weather forecast 14 SCANCAST, pavement surface conditions (pavement temperature curve only) 6 $ $22,113 1 Delivery of SCANCAST via SSI Internet 6 $300 $1,800 Server 27 Forecast Updates per RPU 6 $75 $12,150 1 Average Timing Report $5,000 $5,000 1 Advance Warning Report $5,000 $5,000 1 Forecast Verification Report $5,000 $5,000 Total $105,616.50

3 REQUEST FOR PROPOSAL FOR WEATHER AND PAVEMENT FORECASTING SERVICE 5/11/ General Information 2.0 Project Description 3.0 Concept of Operation The Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) is soliciting proposals from vendors of weather forecasting services and consultants with special expertise in providing detailed forecasts of road and weather conditions in support of VDOT snow and ice control activities. The purpose of this proposed project is to provide VDOT with weather and pavement temperature forecasting information in support of snow and ice removal operations. VDOT realizes the importance of timely and accurate weather forecasting in order to provide for safety of the traveling public as well as for the safety of VDOT s employees. Specific forecasts for the transportation infrastructure allow VDOT to deploy snow removal forces in a more efficient and cost effective manner. The objective of this RFP is for VDOT to obtain weather and pavement temperature forecast for each RWIS site listed in Attachment 1. The successful contractor will provide weather and pavement forecasting services from a period of October 15 through April 15 for 3 consecutive years beginning in Contractor will utilize weather data from the National Weather Service and VDOT RWIS sites. VDOT will provide Contractor access to the RPU telephone numbers for the specific RWIS sites. All forecasts by the Contractor will become property of VDOT. VDOT may, at its discretion, share the forecast with other public agencies. 4.0 Mandatory Requirements The successful contractor will provide hourly forecasts of pavement temperature in degrees Fahrenheit for one surface sensor at sites identified by VDOT. A minimum of two routine Pavement Temperature Forecasts will be delivered daily to each District, Residency, Traffic Management System and TEOC no later than 5:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. and no earlier than 3:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m., respectively. The forecast will indicate the time(s) the pavement temperature is expected to rise above or fall below 32 F. Contractor will provide updates whenever an unforecasted pavement temperature change through the freezing point, 32 F, occurs or is expected to occur during precipitation at each forecast site. Contractor

4 will provide two (2) hours advance warning for all pavement temperature changes through the freezing point during precipitation and frost events. 5.0 Statement of Qualifications A. Include, at a minimum: 1. Name of firm and any subcontractors to be used as part of this proposal. 2. General background experience of the proposing firm(s) and any subcontractor(s). Descriptions of other projects that provide insight to firm s capabilities. 3. Specific experience of firm(s) and any subcontractor(s) in winter weather and pavement forecasting. Descriptions of projects of a similar nature. References for each project. 4. Names of project team member(s), client contact person(s), and telephone numbers. Description of each team member s related experience. 5. Provide a quality control plan. 6. Experience of the team of meteorologists proposed on the project. Information for each should include, at a minimum: (a) Educational background. (b) Experience in weather forecasting, and tailoring forecasts to small areas and operational requirements. (c) Experience in winter weather and road condition (d) forecasting. References of past employees or clients. Include names and telephone numbers. B. Scope of work: Provide a detailed description of how the firm views the tasks and subtasks (as outlined in Sections 6.0 and 7.0) required by this RFP. 6.0 Technical Requirements A. Understanding of Virginia climatology. Contractor must demonstrate an understanding of Virginia weather and climatology. Contractor must show a thorough knowledge of winter weather patterns and the variations in weather within the State. B. Knowledge of VDOT s roads and winter maintenance practices. Contractor must show that they understand how the information they provide impacts on snow removal operations, both positively and negatively. Contractor must also show a familiarity with Virginia s road system.

5 C. Provide two (2) 24-hour forecasts per day from October 15 through April 15, and one (1) 24-hour forecast per day from April 16 through October 14, and updates as required. Contractor must prepare two (2) 24-hour forecasts per day for the sites identified in Attachment 1 and deliver them to the appropriate location as identified in Attachment 1. Forecasts will be delivered not later than 5:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. and no earlier than 3:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m., respectively from October 15 through April 15. Also, one (1) 24-hour forecast for the same locations will be delivered no later than 3:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m. and no earlier than 1:00 a.m. and 1:00 p.m., respectively from April 16 through October 14. Contractor must deliver a forecast update within thirty (30) minutes whenever any Department-specified criteria occurs or is about to occur and was not previously forecast. The criteria are: Snowfall greater than or equal to a trace Freezing rain or drizzle Winds greater than 15 miles per hour Pavement temperature rising above or falling below 32 F. Updates will be required whenever the contractor s forecast for these criteria changes from the previous forecast. Updates must also meet the advance warning times specified in paragraphs E and F. In the event more severe criteria than those listed above are expected but the current forecast or update will not meet the desired advance warning time, the affected Districts will be notified immediately by telephone. This will be followed by electronic notification. D. Provide an outlook for the 24 to 72 hour period from forecast time. Contractor will provide a 24 to 72 hour outlook in narrative form with each routinely issued 24 hour forecast. The outlook will specify any periods of precipitation, winds, and high and low temperatures. E. Provide two (2) hour advance warning for snowfall greater than or equal to a trace and up to two (2) inches. Contractor will provide two (2) hour advance warning for all snowfalls greater than or equal to a trace amount and up to two (2) inches. The forecast warning will specify the times when heaviest snowfall is expected as well as anticipated start and stop times. F. Provide four (4) hour advance warning for snowfall greater than two (2) inches and any freezing precipitation.

6 Contractor will provide four (4) hour advance warning for snowfall greater than two (2) inches and any freezing precipitation in order that VDOT may properly allocate maintenance crews and configure equipment based on the type and amount of precipitation expected. G. Precipitation Forecasts. Contractor will provide precipitation forecasts which includes expected start and stop times, type and amounts. Contractor will provide snowfall amount forecast. The following ranges will be used in forecasting snowfall amounts: trace to 1", 1-2", 1-3", 2-4", 3-5", 4-6", 5-7", 6-9", 7-10", 8-12". Snowfall totals expected greater than 8-12" will also be in 4" ranges. In situations where snowfall totals vary greatly across Districts, the contractor will specify snowfall amounts down to the county level, if needed. H. Wind direction and speed forecast. Wind direction and speed forecasts will be issued as part of the routine forecast, updates and all warnings. The wind forecast will be in octant form, i.e., NW, ENE, etc., where an octant is equal to 45 degrees. The forecast will key on winds of greater than or equal to 15 miles per hour and indicate any times the wind speed is expected to change by more than five (5) miles per hour or the wind direction is expected to change by more than one (1) octant (45 degrees). I. Air and dew point temperature forecast. Air temperature and dew point temperature forecasts in degrees Fahrenheit will be included in each routine forecast, update or warning. J. Frost forecast. Contractor will notify VDOT whenever conditions are favorable for frost formation during the valid period of the forecast. This information will be included in the forecasters discussion portion of both morning and afternoon forecasts. Frost formation will not be considered an update criteria. K. Delivery of forecasts and updates. Contractor will specify how they plan to deliver forecasts to all VDOT locations. The primary means of transferring the information must be presented as well as any backup methods. The following is a list of possible delivery routes:

7 1. Satellite delivery i.e. Data Transmission Network. 2. Fax delivery. 3. Verbal delivery via telephone. 4. Internet. 5. Virginia Operational Information System (VOIS) Telephonic notification is required for heavy snow (t four inches) or freezing precipitation when the forecast will not meet desired advance warning time. Any updates to the forecast will be considered an entirely new forecast and must include all the elements of a regularly scheduled forecast. These updates should overwrite any old forecast already in the system. L. Provide unlimited toll-free access to the forecast center. Contractor will provide an unlimited toll-free telephone number to VDOT so that maintenance personnel can discuss current weather situation with forecaster(s) responsible for the VDOT forecast. 7.0 Reporting Requirements A. Average timing error for forecast start and stop times. Contractor will provide VDOT with statistics and data utilized to determine statistics showing average timing error for forecast start and stop times for snow greater than or equal to one (1) inch, freezing precipitation, or pavement temperatures going above or below 32 F during storm events. These timing errors will be calculated using data from the RPU sites. A timing error of one (1) hour or less is considered accurate. Average timing error greater than (1) hour will be grounds for Customer to cancel the Contract at Customer s discretion without additional compensation to the Contractor. Timing error: The difference between when a critical threshold was forecast and when it actually occurred. This can include both start and stop times. Percent accurate: The number of accurate forecasts for each criterion divided by the total number of forecasts during the event. Each forecast for each criterion is considered a separate forecast. B. Average advance warning time. Contractor will provide VDOT with statistics and data utilized to determine statistics showing the average advance warning time for forecasts of snow greater than or equal to one (1) inch, freezing

8 precipitation, and pavement temperatures going above or below 32 F during storm events. Statistics will indicate the average advance warning provided to VDOT for the above criteria for those RPU sites impacted by the storm event. For all routine forecasts, it will be assumed the delivery time will be 3:00 AM/PM local time. Lead-time will then be calculated by computing the difference between this delivery time and the actual start time of the event (snow, freezing rain, high winds, etc.). For non-routine updates, the delivery time will be the time included in the update plus 20 minutes. Advance warning will be calculated by computing the difference between delivery time and the actual start time of the event. Start times will be calculated using data from those RPU sites impacted by the storm event. An average advance warning time of two (2) hours or greater is expected. Average advance warning times of less than (2) hours is grounds for the Customer to cancel the Contract at Customer s discretion without additional compensation to the Contractor. C. Forecast verification. Contractor will provide VDOT with statistics and data utilized to determine statistics showing forecast verification rates for snowfall greater than or equal to one (1) inch and freezing rain. A forecast hit is defined as an event that was forecast and did occur within the forecast range. The forecast range is defined as beginning two hours (for snows less than 2 ) or four hours (for snows equal or greater than 2, or freezing rain) after the time of the forecast. A forecast miss is defined as a forecasted event that did not occur, or an event that occurred but was not forecast. Statistics will show the number of forecast hits and misses. The forecast verification rate for the above criteria is expected to be 85 per cent or better. An average forecast verification rate of less than 85 per cent is grounds for the Customer to cancel the Contract at Customer s discretion without additional compensation to the Contractor. D. Submittal of statistics. Contractor will submit the statistics required above to VDOT within the following timeframe: Time period Statistics submitted by October 15 January 15 January 30 January 16 April 15 April 30 E. Post-winter Conference Contractor will attend a post-winter conference with VDOT representatives to discuss results of the winter season. The meeting will

9 8. Cost Proposal discuss all aspects of the winter forecasting service with focus on how to improve service in the future. During the first year of the contract, a conference call will be held during the first week of February to discuss all activities to date. A proposal detailing the costs of each task and subtask shall be prepared separately, sealed, and attached to the Statement of Qualifications and Technical Requirements. The Cost Proposal will not be used as criterion in the technical evaluation process. The Cost Proposal will be opened after the selection of the best firm, prior to negotiations, or to choose between two or more equally qualified responders. The cost proposal will serve as a basis for contract negotiations.