Trade Report. Maersk Group. Mexico, in the lead of Latin American economies. Mexican trade raffles successfully the global economic crisis MEXICO

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1 Maersk Group Trade Report THIRD QUARTER 2015 MEXICO Mexico, in the lead of Latin American economies Mexican trade raffles successfully the global economic crisis Container cargo flow will enjoy its best result since 2012 with estimated growth of around 10% Despite the challenging economic environment, Mexico s trade numbers are still growing, placing the country in top spot among Latin American economies, even grabbing pole position from traditionally the biggest player, Brazil. This comes as container cargo flow will enjoy its best result since 2012 with estimated growth of around 10%, reaching 2,641,679 TEU (1) as of October. (1) Container flow is based in the TEU unit. TEU: Twenty Foot Equivalent Unit. (2) International Monetary Fund. Strong and stable, the country s economy has managed to overcome currency depreciation, falling oil and commodities prices and limited US economic. Consequently, Mexico s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) will grow 2.3% by end 2015, representing a considerable and reassuring distance from a lagging Latin American GDP, estimated at -0.3% (2). And even more important: the result shows that trade is a key component and a differentiator in Mexico s economic development. A country that for the last 20 years has managed to promote policy that has boosted commerce with the world. PAGE 1

2 Mexico s good trade result was caused mainly by robust manufacturing and consumer appetite, says Mario Veraldo, managing director for Maersk Line Mexico & Central America. Imports will remain stable in the range of 10%- and exports will shrink owing to an expected deceleration in the global economy, a possible drop in oil production and a weak construction sector. In 2015, the US represented another factor that boosted container flow and problems suffered by west coast ports. Ensenada s location (in the state of Baja California) and infrastructure allowed this Mexican port to position itself as the alternative access path to US markets. This earned Ensenada s port an increase of 96% in imports. But to build on this in 2016 will not be easy. For next year, it s expected that the Mexican economy will be under pressure and that the increase in the flow of containers will only grow 8%. According to Maersk Line the leading company in global container shipping - to maintain double-digit growth is not impossible but it will at least be a big challenge. It will be complicated to maintain the same pace of growth next year. To do that, it will be necessary to develop more infrastructure and continue to open the door to new markets in Asia, Middle East and Europe, explains Veraldo. To achieve that, it s very important to allow for more competition in Mexican ports. We need, for example, new terminals at ports where there s only one operator. At Christmas, more Mexican products Regarding the last quarter of the year, exports is expected to grow ahead of GDP, whilst imports are seen increasing a much better 13% to 14%. It will be worth paying attention to Christmas consumption because it will behave in a different manner compared to previous years. Between July and September, retail sales reported an average growth of around 7.5%, an uptrend that is expected to continue during the last quarter of the year. The increase in employment in recent months and the difference that currently exists between US dollars and Mexican pesos makes us think that the Mexican consumer will spend more during the upcoming Christmas season compared to what they spent last year, says Veraldo. With more Mexicans taking formal jobs, the average purchasing power of consumers Considering the peso-dollar difference, we can expect consumers - accustomed to buying imported goods or buying merchandise in the US market - will choose to buy Mexican products in the country instead of imported goods from the United States, Jorge Monzalvo, managing director of SeaLand Mexico increases. At Christmas, thanks to year end bonuses (known as Aguinaldos ) consumption is expected to rise. Considering the peso-dollar difference, we can expect consumers - accustomed to buying imported goods or buying merchandise in the US market - will choose to buy Mexican products in the country instead of imported goods from the United States, says Jorge Monzalvo, managing director of SeaLand Mexico, Maersk Group s shipping company specializing in the container transport across the Intra-Americas zone. According to some analysts, during this Christmas season, retail industry consumption will favor electronic products, clothing, footwear and vacation plans. PAGE 2

3 Favorable Outlook During 2016, Mexico s container flow will continue to reflect the uptrend of the country s economy. According to Maersk Line s forecasts, the flow could reach an 8% increase, because Mexico s foreign trade will continue to evolve with stability. This trend will be fueled, for the most part by an improvement in the US economy and the good behavior of the country s automotive industry. For 2016, our forecast is that imports will increase around 10%, thanks to an increased activity in the manufacturing and automotive industries. Exports will increase just above the GDP growth (2.5%), affirms the managing director Maersk Line México & Central America. And adds: These numbers could increase if Mexico is capable of diversifying For 2016, our forecast is that imports will increase around 10%, thanks to an increased activity in the manufacturing and automotive industries. Exports will increase just above the GDP growth (2.5%), Mario Veraldo, managing director Maersk Line México & Central America. its production and the markets with which it trades. Currently, 80% of Mexico s exports go across the border to the US. In terms of imports, another single country, China, holds the biggest share. Rightly, Mexico starts to look in different directions and into new markets. Two factors have driven this trend: China s economic slowdown and the falling prices of raw materials, says Veraldo. Mexico could increase its imports from Asia and Europe. In addition, the signing of agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Pacific Alliance prompts Mexico to look into other places. Among them are Mexico s southern neighbors - other Latin American countries. Pending Tasks Unlike other regional economies, Mexico has been able to keep its growth in spite of the difficult economic context of And beyond that, 2016 s expectations show signs of stability and moderate growth. Nevertheless, Mexico could make a big mistake if it turns indulgent and stops looking for new markets. To improve its results in foreign commerce, Mexico should keep investing in the development and modernization of its logistic infrastructure. To increase its competitiveness, Mexico needs to invest in the improvement of the infrastructure: roads, trains and ports. We shouldn t forget that an inefficient port or a bad quality road will become obstacles for commerce and economic growth, says Mario Veraldo, managing director for Maersk Line Mexico and Central America. Regarding this, it is worth mentioning that in Mexico, costs associated with the transport of merchandise represent 20% of the sales value (3). In countries like the US, Singapore, Japan, Canada and New Zealand (countries that take part in TPP) such a level is around 10%. So, considering that Mexico has much to do with infrastructure, especially in the field of multimodal corridors, facilities where containers move from vessels to trucks, from trucks to trains and airplanes and vice versa. We need to reach our destiny on time and properly, regardless of the cargo raw materials or finished merchandise. We should aspire to transport Mexican products through ports, roads or trains in a secure, fast and efficient fashion, says Monzalvo of SeaLand Mexico, which is Maersk Group s shipping company specialized in the container transport across the Intra-Americas zone. In spite of the deficiencies and multiple pending tasks, Mexico s current logistic infrastructure boosted container flow to the 10% growth expected by the end of With proper investments and strategic planning in the development of its infrastructure, Mexico s logistics factor will stop being an issue for the country. And when that happens, the nation s opportunities for economic growth and regional leadership will be more encouraging than ever. In Mexico, costs associated with the transport of merchandise represent 20% of the sales value (3). In countries like the US, Singapore, Japan, Canada and New Zealand (countries that take part in TPP) such a level is around 10%. So, considering that Mexico has much to do with infrastructure, especially in the field of multimodal corridors, facilities where containers move from vessels to trucks, from trucks to trains and airplanes and vice versa. (3) World Bank PAGE 3

4 Mexico s Container Based Commerce Mexico: annual growth on TEU Flow Number of TEU % 12% Import TEU 1,458,949 1,497,003 1,646,402 Export TEU 1,190,914 1,250,540 1,243,586 Total TEU 2,649,863 2,747,543 2,889,988 10% 8% 6% 4% TEU: Twenty-Foot Equivalent Unit. 2% Source: Maersk Line & SeaLand 0% * *Estimated 2015 growth according to Maersk Line & SeaLand Flow of TEU on Mexican Ports - October 2014 vs October 2015 Number of TEU Annual Oct Oct Change (%) Import Export Total Import Export Total Main ports Ensenada 35,393 41,777 77,169 68,386 39, , Manzanillo 560, , , , ,730 1,047,030 8 Lázaro Cárdenas 280, , , , , , Altamira 140, , , , , ,799 8 Veracruz 322, , , , , ,917 6 Other ports* 35,053 38,522 73,575 39,076 38,771 77,848 6 *Other ports include: El Sauzal, Pichilingue, Guaymas, Mazatlán, Salina Cruz, Coatzacoalcos, Puerto Chiapas, Tampico, Tuxpan, Dos Bocas, Seybaplaya, Progreso, Puerto Morelos. TEU: Twenty-Foot Equivalent Unit. Source: Maersk Line & SeaLand PAGE 4

5 About Maersk Line Maersk Line is the world s largest container shipping company. Maersk Line employs 7,100 seafarers and 23,000 landbased employees and operates 608 container vessels. Maersk Line serves customers through 374 offices in 116 countries. Latin America represents around 10% of Maersk Line s global volumes. About SeaLand SeaLAnd is present in 29 countries SeaLand connects the Americas with 35 services SeaLand operates 28 vessels SeaLand employs 288 people About Maersk Group Maersk Group has more than 6,800 staff in Latin America and 89,000 in the world. Maersk is present in more than 130 countries. The group is also engaged in oil and gas production, towage and emergency services at sea, oil drilling, and tankers, focusing heavily on the safety and training of its highly-skilled staff as well as sustainability. For further details and interview requests, please contact Concepcion Arias Boo Maersk Group International Communication Partner Tel: +45 (3363) Andrés Piedragil Gálvez PR Consulting México Tel: (55) PAGE 5

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