Increasing Product Exports: It s a New Ball Game for the U.S. Platts North American Refining and Trading Conference Houston, Texas May 22, 2012

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1 Increasing Product Exports: It s a New Ball Game for the U.S. Platts North American Refining and Trading Conference Houston, Texas May 22, 2012 Baker & O Brien, Inc. All rights reserved.

2 Overview Recent Growth in U.S. Refined Product Exports Exports by U.S. Region Mexico is the Dominant Export Destination but New Growth is Limited ULSD Export Demand is Diverse and Growing Potential Export Markets in the Future U.S. Refiners are Globally Competitive 1

3 Thousand Barrels per Day U.S. Refined Product Export Growth 3,000 2,500 Other Pentanes and Lighter Oxygenates Total Gasoline and Distillates Residual Fuel Oil Petroleum Coke 12-Month Rolling Average Annual Growth Rate (AGR) Since Jan-10 10% 20% 49% 2,000 1,500 28% 1, % 11% Source: EIA 2

4 Thousand Barrels per Day U.S. Gasoline and Distillate Exports 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Other Diesel ULSD Jet Fuel Gasoline 12-Month Rolling Average AGR Since Jan-10-8% 49% % % 0 Source: EIA 3

5 Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts U.S. PADD Map 5 W A S H I N G T O N O R E G O N N E V A D A I D A H O U T A H M O N T A N A 4 W Y O M I N G N O R T H D A K O T A S O U T H D A K O T A N E B R A S K A M I N N E S O T A 2 W I S C O N S I N I O W A I L L. M I C H I G A N I N D. O H I O N E W H A M P S H I R E V E R M O N T M A I I N E C A L I F O R N I A A R I Z O N A C O L O R A D O K A N S A S OKLAHOMA M I S S O U R I K E N T U C K Y T E N N E S S E E N E W Y O R K P E N N. M A S S. R. I. C O N N. N E W J E R S E Y H A W A I I N E W M E X I C O 3 T E X A S A R K A N S A S L A. M I S S. A L A. W.. V A.. V I I R G I I N I A N.. C A R O L I N A S.. C A R. D E L A W A R E M A R Y L A N D 1 G E O R G I A A L A S K A F L A.. 4

6 Thousand Barrels per Day Gasoline & Distillate Exports by PADD 1,400 Last 12 Month Average (Ending 2/12) 1,200 1, Other Diesel ULSD Jet Fuel Gasoline % of total Source: EIA PADD I PADD II PADD III PADD V 5

7 Thousand Barrels per Day 450 Top Gasoline & Distillate Export Destinations Last 12 Month Average (Ending 2/12) Other Diesel ULSD Jet Fuel Gasoline Source: EIA 0 Mexico Netherlands Chile Canada Brazil Panama Colombia Gibraltar 6

8 Gasoline Exports to Mexico Mexico comprises 58% of U.S. gasoline exports All other countries comprise less than 6% each U.S. gasoline exports to Mexico comprise 78% of all Mexican gasoline imports Mexico gasoline demand has been flat for 4 years Since 2009, U.S. gasoline exports to Mexico have: Replaced 77 MB/D of gasoline production shortfall from Mexican refineries Displaced 30 MB/D of gasoline imports from Europe Gasoline export growth to Mexico is limited Only 55 MB/D European imports left to displace 7

9 Other Gasoline Export Markets U.S. gasoline exports to Brazil surged to 60 MB/D in the fall of 2011 due to an ethanol production shortfall in Brazil Gasoline exports to Brazil slowed to 20 MB/D since November 2011 Exports to Brazil should decline to near zero in as Brazil s ethanol/gasoline supply balance returns to normal Small growth in other export destinations Overall, could see 5-10% growth in U.S. gasoline export volumes for as Hovensa volumes into Latin America are replaced 8

10 ULSD Exports Offer Promise PADD 3 ULSD spot prices averaged 4-5 cents per gallon below Europe over last 2 years PADD 3 is also well positioned to supply incremental ULSD demand in Latin America Low cost hydrogen provides U.S. refiners with a competitive advantage Latin American ULSD demand is expected to exceed the region s production 9

11 ULSD Export Destinations U.S. ULSD Exports Last 12 Months (ending 2/12) 14% 15% Europe Other Central America Mexico Other South America Chile Africa 10

12 Thousand Barrels per Day Mexico Chile Colombia Costa Rica Peru Top 5 Latin American Destinations for U.S. ULSD 12-Month Rolling Average

13 Exports to Mexico are Limited Mexican refined product import growth has slowed since the last quarter of 2011 Deterioration of Mexican refinery production appears to have stabilized Start up of Minatitlan refinery upgrade Nov Mexico is struggling to direct capital to upstream projects to stave off crude oil production declines Mexican refinery production is expected to be maintained at current levels Increased Mexican refinery production is certainly possible, which would back out imports 12

14 ULSD Exports to Chile ULSD required in Santiago since late 2011 Previous limit was 50 ppm Balance of country has required 50 ppm diesel since 2010 U.S. ULSD exports to Chile increased by 67 MB/D over last year a 368% increase Chilean import growth will likely slow to 5-10% annually now that a new ULSD demand baseline has been set 13

15 Potential ULSD Export Growth U.S. ULSD exports have increased 49% annually since 2010 Europe 44% average annual growth Latin America 53% average annual growth Latin American growth will be lower after the stabilization of Chilean imports Europe is still a strong potential market ULSD exports likely to show strong growth rates of 20-30% annually through

16 Other Product Export Growth Projected annual export growth rates to 2013 for the following product categories: Diesel above 15 ppm sulfur: minus 5 10% Jet fuel: +5-10% Petroleum coke: +5-10% Residual fuel oil: no growth Pentanes plus: % All to Canada from increased shale oil production Oxygenates: +0-5% Ethanol exports slow down from 135% AGR (last 12 months) as Brazilian ethanol returns 15

17 Fuel Ethanol Export Destinations U.S. Fuel Ethanol Exports Last 12 Months (ending 2/12) 17% 4% 9% 10% 35% Brazil Canada United Kingdom Netherlands Finland Others 25% 16

18 U.S. Refiners Globally Competitive Low natural gas costs reduce both fuel and hydrogen supply costs US advantage over Europe is $1.50-$2.00 per barrel of ULSD on hydrogen costs alone Low cost shale oils (Eagle Ford & others) and more heavy Canadian supplies should help competitiveness of PADD 3 export refiners Flat domestic demand and recent refinery expansions make more incremental US barrels attractive for export destinations 17

19 Conclusions Gasoline exports have stabilized and only limited growth anticipated in the future ULSD export growth is more promising Exports to Mexico are not expected to show significant growth due to current situation Europe and Latin America are expected to continue as growth markets for ULSD exports Low cost fuel and hydrogen costs should keep US refiners globally competitive 18

20 Increasing Product Exports: It s a New Ball Game for the US Platts North American Refining and Trading Conference Houston, Texas May 22, 2012 Baker & O Brien, Inc. All rights reserved.

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