Canada, Mexico and the United States:

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1 Canada, Mexico and the United States: Energy Competitors or Collaborators? Mexico s current challenges for remaining a major energy partner in North America Isidro Morales Director EGAP, Gobierno y Política Pública Tecnológico de Monterrey, State of Mexico campus Miami, April 23-24, 2012

2 Mexico is not only a major trading partner of North America, but a strategic oil and gas reservoir for the region. Top Sources of Net Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Imports: Canada (25%) Saudi Arabia (12%) Nigeria (11%) Venezuela (10%) Mexico (9%)

3 The US remains the major trade partner of Mexico. Mexican Crude Oil Exports by Major Countries Shares. Mexico-US exports of crude oil by types Thousand barrils daily % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% United States Spain India China Dutch Antilles Canada San José Agreement Netherlands United Kingdom Israel Portugal Other countries China Dutch Antilles Canada San José Agreement Netherlands United Kingdom Israel Portugal Other countries Olmeca Istmo Maya

4 Mexico has become addicted to oil revenues. Crude oil revenues remain crucial for Mexico, although they risk to be reduced in the years to come due to a decline in the volume of exports. Oil income remains crucial in Govt. fiscal revenues Oil revenues remain 15% (circa) of overall exports income, comparing with the revenues coming from the transport sector. Mexico's foreign income from main sources in the current account. Shares % 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% Foreign remittances Total Transport Exports Tourism Total Oil Exports Source: Banco de México

5 Furthermore, reserves and production risk to decline, and prospective resources have become expensive ENE; 2012 Source: PEMEX

6 The current administration has attempted to tackle the problem in terms of energy security: i.e. To boost oil and gas production and stop the depletion of proved reserves. 100% replacement of depleted reserves To increase rate of production to 3.3 MBD in 2025 Crude oil exports could lift from 1.2 to 1.7 Million barrels daily. Mexico. Evolution of crude oil consumption and exports under two scenarios. Thousand barrels daily 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Crude oil to refineries Exports (Inertial) Exports (NES-2012) Source:

7 Mexico could significantly increase its conventional and non-conventional gas resources. Mexico. Estimated production of conventional natural gas. Million daily cubic feet Mexico. Anticipated production of shale gas. Million daily cubic feet Inertial scenario Scenario under NES-2012 Source: SENER, ENE Inertial scenario Scenario under NES-2012 Source: SENER, ENE-2012

8 Mexico could evolve from a net importer to a major net gas exporter Mexico. Estimated foreign trade of natural gas under two scenarios. Million daily cubic feet 4, , , , EXPORTS IMPORTS (3,000.00) Source: SENER, ENE, 2012 Gross imports (inertial scenario) Gros imports (NES-2012) (2,000.00) (1,000.00) Total conventional gas reserves amount to 61.2 TCF. Current recoverable shale gas reserves amount to 681 TCF.

9 Drilling costs remain uncompetitive for PEMEX at current gas prices while infrastructure must be enhanced. Should a new state company for developing unconventional oil and gas resources be created? A new regulatory approach is needed if the transmission grid is to be enlarged by private entrepreneurs. Plays Cost per well (Million dollars) Eagle Ford 4.0 to 6.5 Marcellus 3.0 to 4.7 Barnett South/Western Counties 1.6 ato 3.7 Barnett-Woodford 6.5 Emergente-1 (PEMEX) 11.9 Source: EIA, 2011 and PEMEX

10 However, Mexico must overcome a myriad of challenges in order to fulfill its targeted goals. But PEMEX must overcome a myriad of challenges. Future investments range 22.5 to 27.2 billion annual dollars and drilling operations from 1767 to 2258 annual wells. While annual investments in the business-asusual scenario amount to 22.5 billion dollars annually and drilling ranges on average 1,767 annual wells during , in the second scenario investments reach 27-2 billion annual dollars and the account of annual wells amount to 2258 during the same time period While developing shale gas could be cheaper and less risky than deep water oil, there are fiscal, infrastructure, environmental, and policy constraints for developing shale gas. A debate is currently taking place in the Mexican energy community, about the best policy options to develop shale resources: infrastructure incentives, fiscal incentives, to develop only humid gas resources, to create a whole new state enterprise, fiscally independent from PEMEX, in order to exploit non-conventional resources according to international best standards. According to specialists, it will take 10 years for Mexico to put on stream gas from its shale reservoirs.

11 Conclusions. In order to meet future oil, gas, and electricity requirements, the Mexican energy sector needs 22 to 27 billion dollars of annual investments in the oil and gas sectors, and an additional 6.2 billions annually in the power sector. In a scenario of declining net oil revenues, matching funds should normally come from the private sector, clearly permitted by current legislation. However, negative externalities impacting the energy sector i.e. the proliferation of pipelines smuggling and lawlessness spaces - reinforced by environmental, fiscal, institutional, policy and political concerns pending in deep water activities and the development of shale gas, will probably discourage private investments in the oil and gas sectors. For private investors, the most promising opportunity areas are in building capacity in the electricity sector, gas distribution and storage, and the development of shale gas.

12 Conclusions 2 A major policy change might come if a PRD (center left) administration comes to power at the end of Mr. López Obrador champions resource nationalism and the supression of oil exports. He claims to build 5 new refineries in order to supress gasoline imports. Services contracts with current investors might be revisited. PRI and PAN presidential candidates might countinue with current energy policies. There are uncertainties pending about the potential of gas exports: will they be feasible? If so, which would be the market outlets: the US, overseas? Will it be better for Mexico to increase imports from the US, at current prices instead of investing in Mexico s shale plays? There also is a great potential in Mexico s renewable resources: i.e. wind, geothermal, solar, but most of them are called to be developed by private firms. They still lack the market incentives in order to plan long term investments.

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