A Tale of Three Models: What Contributes to Student Persistence

Transcription

1 A Tale of Three Models: What Contributes to Student Persistence Becky Patterson: Executive Director, Office of Institutional Research and Planning Arnold Hook: Assistant Director, Office of Institutional Research and Planning Il Barrow, Senior Institutional Research Analyst, Office of Institutional Effectiveness Robert (Bob) Goldstein: Vice Provost, Institutional Research, Effectiveness, and Analytics

2 OUTLINE Explanation of models 1 st to 2 nd year 1 st to 3 rd year 1 st to 4 th year Model results Descriptive statistics: 2008, 2009, 2010 cohorts Putting the data to use

3 PURPOSE Provide decision support with regard to the development of an enrollment management plan and help around the issues of retention and graduation to forward our effort to obtain the 2020 Strategic Plan goal of a 60% graduation rate in Identify a return on the investment of national surveys. 3

4 Entering Cohort Year (1 st Fall) ESTABLISHING THE COHORTS Cohort Size* Retained 2 nd Fall Retained 3 rd Fall Retained 4 th Fall ,738 1,351 1,178 1,066 61% ,701 1,338 1,160 1,060 62% ,578 1,243 1, % Percent of Cohort Retained 4 th Fall *Note: The cohort size was determined by the number of students in the Graduation Rate Survey (GRS) cohort who responded to 4 specific questions that were similar on both the BCSSE (2008) and the CIRP (2009, 2010).

5 Methodology

6 Creation of the Third Model (1 st to 4 th Fall) Binary Logistic Regression Cut point: 67% - represents the proportion of students in the fall 2008 and fall 2009 cohorts returning in the 4 th fall (fall 2011 and fall 2012 respectively) Stepwise regression: backward elimination 6

7 Comparison of variables: the three models

8 SIGNIFICANT VARIABLES 1 ST Fall to 2 ND Fall (First Model) Distance from home First generation Number of days from application to admission First-semester cumulative GPA (end of first fall semester) 1 ST Fall to 3 RD Fall (Second Model) First-Year cumulative GPA Second-Year cumulative GPA At least one grade of W At least 50% of general education courses complete Change in academic standing Participation in Greek activities 1 ST Fall to 4 TH Fall (Third Model) Any grade of D, F, or W College-ready in mathematics 2 nd fall and 3 rd fall GPA of 2.5 or greater Lost financial aid from 1 st fall to 2 nd fall Lost financial aid from 2 nd fall to 3 rd fall Retained 3 rd fall 8

9 ACCURACY OF PREDICTIONS 1 ST Fall to 2 ND Fall (First Model) 80.2% overall 70.5% on those not returning 82.8% on those who did return 1 ST Fall to 3 RD Fall (Second Model) 80.7% overall 80.5% on those not returning 80.8% on those who did return 1 ST Fall to 4 TH Fall (Third Model) 85.0% overall 93.8% on those not returning 90.8% on those who did return 9

10 HISTORICAL RETENTION AND PERSISTENCE RATES Entering Freshmen Cohort (Full-Time) Year N After First Year Retention Rates 1 Persistence Rates 2 After Second Year After Third Year After Fourth Year After Fifth Year After Sixth Year , % 55.4% 49.8% 46.8% 44.3% 45.0% , % 59.0% 54.0% 50.0% 47.0% 48.0% , % 62.3% 56.1% 54.2% 51.6% 50.7% , % 64.1% 59.5% 55.5% 52.0% 53.1% , % 64.9% 60.3% 55.2% 54.2% 54.6% 2004* 2, % 64.9% 60.2% 55.5% 55.4% 55.0% , % 65.4% 61.3% 55.6% 55.7% 56.1% , % 66.6% 63.5% 58.5% 58.1% 57.5% , % 66.8% 62.4% 57.8% 58.2% 58.6% , % 68.2% 63.3% 59.7% 57.8% , % 66.2% 61.4% 57.5% , % 65.4% 60.7% , % 65.9% , %

11 Descriptive Statistics (Third Model)

12 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS Entering Cohort Applied as an undecided major Yes No Total ,279 1, ,200 1, ,137 1,578 Entering Cohort Enrolled as an undecided major Yes No Total ,294 1, ,219 1, ,073 1,578

13 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS Enrolled with more than 15 pre-college Entering credits Cohort Yes No Total ,623 1, ,525 1, ,432 1,578 Number of days from application to admissions Entering Percentiles # Mean Minimum Cohort 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th Maximum , , ,

14 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS Entering Cohort Entered UofLcollege ready in mathematics Total Yes No , , , , , ,578 Total 4, ,017 Entering Cohort Entered UofLcollege ready in English Total Yes No , , , , , ,578 Total 4, ,017

15 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS Entered UofLcollege ready in Entering reading Cohort Yes No Total , , , , , ,578 Total 4, ,017 Entering Cohort Any grade of D, F, or W Yes No Total , , , , , ,578

16 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS Lost financial aid money from 1 Entering to 2 Cohort fall Yes No Total , , , ,578 Entering Cohort Lost financial aid money from 2 nd to 3 rd fall Total Yes No ,129 1, ,151 1, ,004 1,578

17 FOR THOSE NOT RETAINED IN THE 4 TH FALL Entering Cohort Subsequent enrollment in another institution 2-year 4-year Total Total ,023 Subsequent enrollment in another Entering institution Cohort Private Public Total Total ,023

18 MOST POPULAR MAJORS Top five majors at UofL Entering cohort Total Undecided ,431 Biology Nursing Psychology Mechanical Engineering Top five majors of those than Entering cohort Total transferred to another institution Undecided Nursing Associate in Science Criminal Justice Business Administration

19 FOR THOSE NOT RETAINED IN THE 4 TH FALL Top five transfer institutions Entering cohort Total Jefferson Community and Technical College Indiana University Southeast University of Kentucky Elizabethtown Community College Northern Kentucky University Top five institutions of those that transferredand earned at least one grade of D, F, or W at UofL Entering cohort Total Jefferson Community and Technical College Indiana University Southeast University of Kentucky Elizabethtown Community College Northern Kentucky University

20 FOR THOSE NOT RETAINED IN THE 4 TH FALL Entering Earned a degree at another institution Cohort Associate Bachelor Total Total

21 Implementing the results

22 PUTTING THE DATA TO USE Justified establishing a consultancy agreement with AACRAO to assess the institutional enrollment management plan including institutional fit and issues of affordability Promoted the expanded and applied use of the national student engagement surveys (i.e., NSSE, FSSE, BCSSE) Prompted the re-examination of the institutional advising model based on national best practices Identified problematic gate keeper courses that adversely impact student persistence to develop academic and non-academic support strategies Examined course sequencing within academic programs in relation to student enrollment patterns Identified under-utilized high impact practices for growth opportunities (e.g., learning communities, international service opportunities, etc.)

23 CONTACT INFORMATION Becky Patterson: Executive Director, Office of Institutional Research and Planning Arnold Hook: Assistant Director, Office of Institutional Research and Planning Robert (Bob) Goldstein: Vice Provost, Institutional Research, Effectiveness, and Analytics 23

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