Dynamic Spectrum Management (DSM) introduction: the role of market structure and spectrum policy

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1 Dynamic Spectrum Management (DSM) introduction: the role of market structure and spectrum policy, 17th -19th April 2013, Thessaloniki Arturo Basaure

2 Agenda Introduction Market structure and spectrum policy analysis System Dynamic modeling Discussion 2

3 Introduction Market structure and spectrum policy differ from market to market Spectrum concentration and openess of the industry (vertical integration) are key elements to understand the future introduction of new technologies aiming to manage dynamically the spectrum Market structure determines the level of competition, and regulator can decide on separate the industry or allow integration Spectrum concentration determines the number of industry players, and the regulator can decide to allocate new spectrum to incumbent or new entrants 3

4 Phase Diagram spectrum decentralization vs. Industry openess Industry structure policy: 1. Switching costs: SIM lock/number portability 2. Level of infrastructure sharing 3. NO & SO separation, integration (MVNO) 4. Roaming & interconnection, interworking between operators 5. Unbundling of services Licensing policy: How to describe in a quantitative way these dimensions? 1. Number of licenses for mobile services 2. Level of liberalization of usage rights 3. Service and technology neutrality Source: Basaure, A; Casey, T; Hämmäinen, H. Regulation paths towards Cognitive Radio technologies. Cases of Finland and Chile. 23rd European Regional ITS Conference

5 Case 1: Finland 5. Consolidation (2006) Finland 4. MVNO caused price war rather than service innovation 4. Entrance of MVNOs ( ) 3. Number portability (2003) 2. NO / SO separation (1999) 0. Initial liberalization ( ) 1. GSM licenses and unbundling of handsets (1990) Basaure, A; Casey, T; Hämmäinen, H. Regulation paths towards Cognitive Radio technologies. Cases of Finland and Chile. 23rd European Regional ITS Conference

6 Case 2: Chile 4. The Chilean regulator opening the industry through number portability and network operator law. 2. Consolidation (2006) 0. First mobile licenses (1989) Chile 1. Three additional PCS licenses (1997) 4. Number portability (2011) NO law (2011) MVNOs 3. New 3G licenses (2009) 3. Unclear business models of new operators. Some roaming agreements already exist. Virtual operators entering the market Basaure, A; Casey, T; Hämmäinen, H. Regulation paths towards Cognitive Radio technologies. Cases of Finland and Chile. 23rd European Regional ITS Conference

7 Case 3: India and 2300 MHz spectrum auction; separation of license and spectrum; liberalization of spectrum ( ) 4. Spectrum refarming, sharing and trading; revised M&A and some consolidation in industry proposed in the New Telecom Policy 2012; ( ) 2. MNP; Multi- SIM handsets ( ) India 0. First two mobile licenses; additional spectrum through subscriber norms ( ) 1. Fourth operator license dual technology allowed under unified license ( ) Source: Sridhar, V. (2012). Telecom Revolution in India: Technology, Regulation and Policy. New Delhi, India: Oxford University Press, ISBN-13: ; ISBN-10: Comnet

8 Spectrum policy Centraliced versus decentraliced policy Source: Sridhar, Casey, Hämmäinen

9 Vertical integration The level of openness of the industry may be defined by the ratio between price and investment. Source: Davies, Howell, Mabin

10 Data analysis using Bayesian networks Analysis of data set based on OECD database First a smaller and more detailed selection of 11 markets: Finland, Sweden, UK, Chile, Turkey, China, India, New Zealand, Australia, USA and Japan (source: OECD and others sources) Second, a larget data set, consisting on 19 OECD selected countries (source: OECD Communication Outlook 2011, and other sources) 10

11 Spectrum policy Policy decision impacting the spectrum pmay be best measured by market HHI HHI is a rusult of spectrum allocation and other regulatory decisions. In addition, reselling rights may have impact in the future (not at this moment). Spectrum descentralization index = HHI Parent Child p-value Pearson's Correlation Number of MNOs HHI % Spectrum HHI Technology Neutrality (Regulator) % Technology Neutrality (Market) Number of MNOs % Technology Neutrality (Regulator) Reselling Rights % Technology Neutrality (Regulator) Technology Neutrality (Market) % Node Total Force Number of MNOs Technology Neutrality (Regulator) HHI Spectrum HHI Technology Neutrality (Market) Reselling Rights Analyzed countries: Finland, Sweden, UK, Chile, Turkey, China, India, New Zealand, Australia, USA and Japan 11

12 Market structure Policy decisions impacting the market structure may be best measured by price level and investment per capita. churn rate is not widely available and it is quite volatile This validates the system dynamic model of (Davies et al) Openess of the industry index= 1 / (price index *investments) Parent Child p-value Pearson's Correlation Prepaid Penetration % investment per capita churn rate % Prepaid Mobile ARPU % Mobile ARPU investment per capita % Penetration NO/SO separation % NO/SO separation Investment as percentage of revenue % NO/SO separation Price % Node Total Force Prepaid Penetration investment per capita Mobile ARPU NO/SO separation churn rate Investment as percentage of revenue Price OECD: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Finland, Germany, Greece, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States 12

13 Country analysis India 0.25 Industry openess Finland 0.2 Turkey NZ Chile Sweden Australia Belgium Germany UK /(price* investment per capita) Greece Korea Italy 0.05 Japan USA Spectrum decentralization (market HHI) 13

14 System Dynamics: modelling path dependance System modelling analysis of the path dependence of two technologies. Source: Sterman, Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, 2000 We apply this model to describe two scenarios for introducing DSM technologies: Spectrum Sharing End user centric scenario End user driven Mobile operator centric scenario Between mobile operators DSM IEEE based? 3GPP based Offloading Spectrum owner based on local operator Mobile and local operators SIM / WiFi authentication Mobile operators

15 Σ 15

16 Modelling market structure and spectrum concentration in a DSM introduction Total Demand Initial Installed Base end user centric devices Market Share end user centric devices - Total Attractiveness of All Products - Market Share MO devices Sales of end user centric devices B1 Share Saturation B1 Share Saturation <end user centric devices Share of Installed Base> R1 Network Effect Installed Base of end user centric devices Attractiveness of DSM devices Attractiveness of MO devices R1 Network Effect Effect of Compatibility on Attractiveness of end user devices amount of spectrum available for sharing R2 Effect of Compatibility on Attractiveness of MO devices R3 incentives for new entrant to invest incentives for incumbent to invest - spectrum policy descentralization Threshold for spectrum sharing R4 Threshold for Compatibility Effects Sensitivity of Attractiveness to Installed Base barries to entry B2 Sensitivity of Attractiveness to Installed MO devices Base - HHI initial HHI - price/qos index PPP - Openess o industry Initial Installed Base MO centric devices Sales of mobile operator centric devices Installed Base mobile operator centric devices Threshold for MO devices Compatibility Effect

17 Simulation of DSM introduction Simulation 1 2(a) 2(b) 3 initial HHI 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,45 Openess of industry industry unbundling 0,6 0,6 0,35 0,6 Standard cooperation 0,6 0,45 0,7 0,6 Operator centric devices share End user centric devices share Operator centric devices share End user centric devices share Operator centric devices share End user centric devices share

18 Next step: How DSM diffusion happens at different markets Description of operator centric versus end user scenarios in terms of industry openness and spectrum decentralization. Spectrum decentralization Operator centric devices end user centric devices Vertical disintegration 18

19 Mobile market structure and spectrum policy Arturo Basaure

20 Some References Sridhar, Casey, Hämmäinen. System Dynamics Approach to Analyzing Spectrum Management Policies for Mobile Broadband Services in India. International Journal of Business Data Communications and Networking, 8(1), 37-55, 2012 Davies, Howell, Mabin. Telecom Regulation, regulatory behaviour and its impact a system view. Communications & Strategies, Nakil, S; Mi-ae, K. An empirical analysis of the state of competition in OECD mobile wireless markets. ITS 2011 Bauer, Johannes M. Regulation, public policy, and investment in communications infrastructure. Telecommunications Policy 34 (2010) Sterman, Business Dynamics,

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