Fiscal risks comments on the case of Brazil

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1 Fiscal risks comments on the case of Brazil Jorge Arbache Ministry of Planning FGV-IMF Seminar - April 28, 2016

2 Increasing interdependence among economies imply that some countries may export their fiscal risks e.g. interest rates, exchange rate and other channels Fiscal risks may therefore have systemic aspects and require a wider look

3 LDO fiscal risk annex what s new? We revamped the Fiscal Risk Annex better sequencing, new sessions, reviewed content We introduced, among others: A macro risk assessment, i.e. sensitivity analysis and alternative scenarios e.g. we stressed key parameters to simulate the potential impacts of macro changes on revenues and spending A non-macro risk assessment example: we looked at the BPC program and risks of public banks capitalization A management risk session

4 Next steps Quarterly Fiscal Risks Bulletin In the first issue -- special session examining the impacts the of the minimum wage on municipal fiscal accounts Next year s LDO a wider coverage of fiscal risks and deeper analysis

5 Looking ahead need to keep an eye on nonconventional sources of fiscal risks

6 Fiscal risks in Brazil highly volatile growth rate y = 5E-08x 6-9E-06x 5 + 0,0006x 4-0,0147x 3 + 0,124x 2 + 0,3301x R² = 0, Taxa de crescimento Taxa média Polinômio (Taxa de crescimento) Source: ASSEC/MP

7 Fiscal risks in Brazil highly volatile growth rate África Subsaariana Brasil América Latina e Caribe Mundo Países de renda alta Países de renda média Índia China Source: ASSEC/MP Coefficient of Variation

8 Average growth rate during growth acceleration and growth collapses ,57 5 4, , Tx média Tx cresc durante aceleração Tx cresc durante colapso Hiato tx cresc durante aceleração e colapso -1,26 Methodology to identify growth acceleration and collapses: Arbache and Page 2007 Source: ASSEC/MP

9 The problem is highly asymmetric impacts of growth volatility on key indicators Productivity growth ratio Poverty incidence Investment growth ratio... And fiscal revenues High growth volatility also encourages short-sighted behavior both at the private and public sides several transmission channels into fiscal accounts Source: ASSEC/MP

10 Fiscal risks in Brazil - Demographics Dependency ratio rise Health spending Pensions spending Productivity growth slowdown Source: IBGE

11 Fiscal risks in Brazil growth challenges Labor productivity (US$ PPP ) Fonte: The Conference Board

12 BEL LUX NLD DEU FRA AUT SWE USA SVK CAN IRL AUS ITA ESP FIN POL GBR DNK GRC MLT BGR LVA JPN CZE ARG LTU SVN HUN TUR KOR EST RUS CYP PRT ROU MEX ZAF CHL CHN IDN IND BRA 3,76 Fiscal risks in Brazil growth challenges International Competitiveness Index (relative prices compared to USA / labor productivity compared to USA) the lower, the better Source: Arbache 2015

13 Fiscal risks in Brazil growth challenges Economic complexity index the higher, the better 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 Brasil China Índia 0,4 0, Source: Hausmann and Hidalgo

14 Fiscal risks in Brazil growth challenges Industrial density (US$ constant) Brasil China Coreia Japão Cingapura Source: Arbache (2012)

15 Fiscal risks in Brazil growth challenges 40 Labor productivity Agriculture Manufacturing Services Mining Fonte: Groningen Development Center

16 Fiscal risks in Brazil growth challenges High exposure to exogenous shocks: Low savings ratio Share of commodity sector in the economy e.g. listed companies; larger companies Share of commodities and semi-manufactured goods on exports

17 Fiscal risks in Brazil The case of BPC BPC - Spending (% of GDP) Cenário/Ano Reajuste INPC + PIB 39,7 62,6 95,7 143,5 Em % PIB 0,67% 0,80% 0,92% 1,04% Reajuste INPC 39,7 60,8 82,6 110,2 Em % PIB 0,67% 0,77% 0,79% 0,80% 1/2 SM (INPC + PIB) 39,7 133,1 203,6 305,3 Em % PIB 0,67% 1,70% 1,95% 2,20% Source: ASSEC/MP

18 Fiscal risks in Brazil Legal issues: the case of BPC 2,40% BPC Spending (% of GDP) 2,20% 2,00% 1,60% 1,59% 1,20% 1,04% 0,80% 0,40% 0,72% /4 SM 1/2 SM Source: ASSEC/MP

19 Fiscal risks in Brazil areas that require a closer eye include Contingent liabilities; e.g. legal issues Subnational debts Subnational pension funds Public banks capitalization risk SOE capitalization risk; e.g. Petrobras SOE pension funds Non-performing loans risks e.g. FIES, MCMV Bankruptcy of private firms risks E-commerce and cross-border service trade

20 Final comments Fiscal risks management requires better identification and careful monitoring, a medium/long-term planning perspective, strengthened institutions, and a permanent review of policies and programs Integration of fiscal risk analysis into fiscal policy is critical A less volatile, more sustained growth critical for fiscal management and planning

21 Thank You

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