The Innovation Cycle - Technology Changing Lives

Transcription

1 qctconnect.com The Innovation Cycle - Technology Changing Lives Nicholas Yu Vice President of Engineering Rakesh Kumar Advisor, QCT (President, TCX Inc.) PAGE 1

2 Outline Expanding Market Opportunities Market convergences, Wireless connectivity and new Applications are driving Connected Life, Mobile Life and Mobile Computing Internet of Everything Semiconductor innovation continues to be a critical enabler Continued use of Moore s Law if economically feasible Increased use of More than Moore, and Co-design Expand use of the successful Integrated Fabless Manufacturing (IFM) model in the research domain PAGE 2

3 Disclaimer Nothing in these materials is an offer to sell any of the components or devices referenced herein. Certain components for use in the U.S. are available only through licensed suppliers. Some components are not available for use in the U.S. PAGE 3

4 Social Media Quiz Blogger Delicious DesignFloat digg facebook Flickr Google MySpace Reddit StumbleUpon Technorati Twitter WordPress Yahoo! YouTube This is our life! PAGE 4

5 The Connected, Mobile Life is continuing to spur the Semiconductor Innovation Cycle Applications Component Features/ Functions Devices/ Features/ Form Factors Software Usage Models Hardware PAGE 5

6 Convergence #1 on Smartphones Wireless Converged Computing Consumer Electronics PAGE 6

7 Convergence #2 Internet Anytime, Anywhere, for Anyone World maps National Maps Online Shopping News Games Camera GPS Stock Ticker Charts & Graphs Music Business Location- Based Apps Search engine Weather Financial Updates Video Internet Wireless Source: The Nielson Company Survey (Jul 09) 34% year-over-year increase in US consumers accessing the web via a mobile device PAGE 7

8 Connected Mobility Many Applications, Devices & Form Factors PAGE 8

9 What is a Smartbook? Feature Phones Smartphones Growth Driven by Innovation & New Features High Price $ Low Price $ Smartbooks Growth Driven by Lower Price Netbooks Notebooks Always On, Always Connected & Location Aware PAGE 9

10 Applications Component Features/ Functions Devices/ Features/ Form Factors Software Usage Models Hardware PAGE 10

11 And more even Data more Data In Then the there beginning was Voice there and was Data VOICE ,000 10, ,000 Kbps AMPSEVDO-revO HSDPA 3.6 GSM HSDPA CDMA 7.2WCDMA GPRS HSPA+ CDMA EVDO-revA 1x EVDO-revB EDGE Alexander Graham Bell Invents the telephone! Voice Camera Calls GPS Ringtones 3D Music Games Streaming 2D Texting Games Video Screensavers Social Video Media PAGE 11

12 And Data Demand keeps Growing ,000 10, ,000 Kbps DC-HSPA+ / LTE Cloud Computing PAGE 12

13 And the need for more compute power All the Power of a Laptop in Your Pocket Snapdragon Family Qualcomm Enhanced CPU** (1-1.5GHz) Intel MIPS ARM MCU < 20 MIPS ARM7TDMI 23 MIPS* (27 MHz) Enhanced Platform Multimedia Platform ARM9 ARM9 Up to 250 MIPS* Up to 160 MIPS* (225 MHz) (146 MHz) Convergence Dual-Core ARM9 + ARM11 Up to 740 MIPS* (400 MHz) (~2.5 MHz) * Dhrystone 2.1 ** ARM Instruction Set PAGE 13

14 Moving Forward Connectivity + Mobile Life Internet of Everything Wireless Digital Home Green Energy Converged Computing Consumer Electronics Mobile Health PAGE 14

15 Applications Component Features/ Functions Devices/ Features/ Form Factors Software Usage Models Hardware PAGE 15

16 Drivers for Hardware Innovations Semiconductors offer: Low Cost Low Power Hi Performance Small and thin Technology Scaling More Moore - If cost effective Innovation using More than Moore Co-design and early Path-finding for Architecture, Design, Si, and Packaging optimization Fabless/IFM* Model Here to Stay Increased collaborative efforts with eco-system partners for timely product development and volume ramp *IFM: Integrated Fabless Manufacturing PAGE 16

17 Continued Moore Scaling is threatened many TECHNICAL challenges Lithography Immersion / EUV New Materials & Structures Many process options to meet applications needs 6-88 nm FinFETs Ref: Sematech # Elements Used / Potentially used in Semiconductor Industry technical solutions will likely be there when needed 's 1990's 2000's Ref: Sematech / Intel Ref: Sematech PAGE 17

18 Continued Moore Scaling is threatened many ECONOMIC challenges Increased Capital Cost Increased R&D Cost Sources: Sematech PAGE 18

19 Continued Moore Scaling is threatened cost effectiveness is an issue 1 Relative Cost Per Gate (log scale) 90nm 65nm Cost Reduction has driven the Technology Roadmap 45nm -29%/year 32/28 nm Year Production Source: ITRS Litho, Optimized Process solutions & DD reduction are a must for continued scaling economics PAGE 19

20 And, its Moore than the Silicon In Manufacturing today The packaged Silicon must be cost effective in manufacturing PAGE 20

21 Innovative Packaging Architectural Advantages Emerging TSS [Thru Si Stacking] Source: IMEC Source: IMEC ecubes.org PAGE 21

22 Battery/Chip Power Management an ongoing crisis Puzzles Arcade Advanced Arcade Video Applications Power Requirements Improvement Battery Crisis Battery Capacity Hardware & Power Management Improvement 2G < 1W 2.5G~2-3W 3G up to 5W 4G up to 10W Source: Informa, Nov-08 PAGE 22

23 Product Innovation Through Early Co-Design Pathfinding / Tradeoffs / Optimization Partitioning Architecture Performance Software Power Design Cost Silicon Technology Packaging & Test More Moore More Than Moore PAGE 23

24 Traditional Fabless Model General Release Fabless investment in IP/Design Prod Dev Foundry Investment Capital, Development and Manufacturing ROI Module Dev. Integration / Qual Product Dev. Production PAGE 24

25 IFM* enables early Foundry engagement for leading Fabless companies IFM Dev. Start General Release ROI Fabless investment in IP/Design/Prod Dev Foundry Investment Capital, Development and Manufacturing Product Dev. Module Dev. Integration / Qual Product Dev. Production * IFM: Integrated Fabless Manufacturing PAGE 25

26 Early engagement with Research organizations for early co-design start IFM Engagement Model for Leading Fabless Companies Research Co-Design Start IFM Dev. Start General Release Early Path-finding Product Dev. Module Dev. Integration / Qual Product Dev. Production * IFM: Integrated Fabless Manufacturing PAGE 26

27 Eco-system Alignment Across Entire Value Chain is Required for Optimized Product Innovation & Execution PAGE 27

28 Strong Fabless Revenue Growth Fabless revenue is now over 20% of overall semiconductor revenue $60,000 $50,000 Fabless Revenue $52,000 $51,000 $54,000* $49,591 ($M) $40,000 $30,000 CAGR = 17% $22,347 $33,362 $38,977 $20,000 $10,000 $6,729 $7,435 $16,983 $13,307 $14,632 $10,183 $7,280 $ Source: Global Semiconductor Alliance (formerly FSA) *Some smaller companies have not reported 2009 revenue, which may affect results. * Includes AMD PAGE 28

29 Driving Semiconductor Technology Advancements and Supply Chain Partnerships 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 1 Billionth unit shipped August Cumulative Shipments (Millions) MSMs Total ASICs 3 Billionth unit shipped November Billionth unit shipped September Billionth unit shipped February Billionth unit shipped January 2008 Global Diversification of Supplier Base Foundry Partners Assembly and Test Partners 0 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 PAGE 29

30 Summary It s All About Collaboration Consumer Demand for Location Aware, Always Connected Mobile devices will continue Technical Solutions for More Moore Scaling & More Than Moore Integration Semiconductor Economics?? Fabless/IFM Model : Co-design & Collaboration Many challenges ahead if semiconductor economics hold up, many more applications will flourish! PAGE 30

31 PAGE 31 Thank You