Innovative Strategies to Understand and Address Poverty and Homelessness in Washington State

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1 Innovative Strategies to Understand and Address Poverty and Homelessness in Washington State Presentation to the National Governors Association Policy Institute for Governors Human Services Advisors by Melissa Ford Shah, MPP June 20, 2016 Washington State Department of Social and Health Services Economic Services Administration 1

2 Overview of Innovative Strategies Highlighted Today Strategy 1: Cross-System Pilot to Address Family Homelessness Strategy 2: Predicting Key Outcomes for TANF Adults and Foster Care Youth Strategy 3: Pilot Initiatives Developed by Local TANF Field Staff Strategy 4: Omnibus Anti-Poverty Legislative Proposal 2

3 STRATEGY 1 Develop and Evaluate a Cross-System Pilot to Address Family Homelessness 3

4 Evaluation of the Ending Family Homelessness (EFH) Pilot EFH provided rapid re-housing and employment services that were piloted in five counties in Washington State To evaluate, used matched comparison groups Mason Whatcom Snohomish Spokane Compared EFH participants to three groups: Homeless or residing in shelter Transitional housing Other (non-efh) rapid re-housing Cowlitz Study Timeline EFH participants first enrolled in the pilot between April and December 2013 Pre-Period 12 to 24 months BASELINE Demographics and family composition Geography/housing market Homelessness Health and safety risk factors* Criminal justice involvement* TANF and employment experience* INDEX MONTH Post-Period 12 months OUTCOMES TANF receipt WorkFirst progression Program sanctions Employment and earnings Returns to homelessness Arrests *These measures were observed over a 24-month pre-period. 4

5 Baseline Risk Factors of EFH Participants The majority of families entering EFH lived in counties with low housing vacancy rates and had children in the household under the age of 6 Many also had issues related to behavioral health, family violence, and criminal justice Geography and Local Housing Market Lived in a county with few vacant units Family Characteristics Youngest child under age 6 or not yet born Single parent Pregnant in the index month Health and Safety Risk Factors Substance use disorder, prior 24 months Mental health treatment need, prior 24 months Evidence of family violence, past 24 months Criminal Justice Involvement Arrested in prior 24 months Ever incarcerated in a correctional facility 6% 11% 28% 28% 35% 50% 67% 65% 69% 5

6 Returns to Homelessness over a 12-Month Post-Period Unadjusted Rates from Matched Samples 10 out of 111 EFH parents experienced a new episode of homelessness The occurrence of a new homeless spell was about three times higher among those in the homeless/shelter group (32 percent vs. 9 percent) The rate of return to homelessness was statistically indistinguishable for EFH clients compared to those in transitional housing or other rapid re-housing New Episode of Homelessness Recorded by Caseworker EFH Treatment Group n = 10 of 111 9% MATCHED COMPARISON GROUPS Statistically significant at p <.001 Rapid Rehousing 14 of 111 Transitional Housing 16 of % 14% Homeless/Shelter 35 of % 6

7 Successes of Cross-System Collaboration Shared use of data and information system for referrals Housing providers in pilot communities gained access to the Benefit Verification System to identify whether individuals were receiving TANF Case management information system was used to make referrals directly from TANF caseworkers to local housing providers Close collaboration at both the local and state level between the homeless service, public assistance, and employment systems Led to greater understanding of one another s systems and how families access (or disconnect from) benefits across systems 100 Day Challenge was a recent initiative that built on the lessons of EFH Deeper systems collaboration work on the most vulnerable subset of families experiencing homelessness, those that are literally unsheltered Limited time and scope three counties, 100 days, and a focus on unsheltered families allowed ESA field staff and housing providers to fine tune how they work together to identify and quickly rehouse unsheltered families 7

8 Challenges of Working Across Systems Not a shared definition of homelessness between public assistance and homeless service systems Per agency rule, Washington s TANF program includes temporary stays with family and friends in its definition of homeless By contrast, homeless service system uses a much narrower definition of homeless Limitations of sending referrals through TANF case management system Some inefficiency to housing providers learning to use and then regularly checking a system in which they may rarely see a referral (especially in rural areas) Federal (HUD) requirement that housing providers move to coordinated entry through a central agency in each locality greatly complicated the TANF to housing provider referral process developed during EFH implementation Systems different missions translated into to different ideas about who should be targeted for rapid re-housing and employment services TANF and employment systems wanted to focus on a work-ready population who would be able to support themselves in housing within 6 months of program entry Homeless system wanted to serve those in most need of housing, including those who were pregnant, chemically dependent, or faced other serious barriers to work 8

9 STRATEGY 2 Predict Key Outcomes for TANF Adults and Foster Care Youth 9

10 Predictive Modeling in Social Service Context Statistical modeling can be used to identify key risk and protective factors that help to predict whether or not a negative (or positive) event will happen Three recently developed predictive models in Washington State focused on social service populations: TANF adults experiencing new spells of homelessness Youth experiencing homelessness in the year after aging out of foster care TANF adults existing the program to persistent employment Basic approach leverages data integrated across systems to identify which factors are most associated with a particular outcome 10

11 Predicting New Homeless Spells among Adults on TANF DECREASED RISK RISK FACTORS Arrested, prior month Homeless in prior month Inpatient alcohol/drug treatment, 4-6 months prior Child Protective Services involvement, index month Domestic violence, prior 24 months Non-compliance TANF sanction, index month Mental health treatment need, prior 24 months Pregnant/expecting household Resides in a rural county PROTECTIVE FACTORS Youngest child age 6-11 Chronic illness risk in top 20 percent of TANF adults 4+ children in the household Earnings in top quartile, index month Public Housing Authority assistance, prior 24 months On TANF, prior month 1.81 INCREASED RISK NOTE: This chart shows a subset of factors included in the model; all factors displayed here are statistically significant at p = <

12 Predicting Homelessness among Youth Aging Out of Foster Care DECREASED RISK RISK FACTORS* Youth is a parent Homeless or receiving housing assistance, prior 12 months Youth is African American 4+ congregate care placements (relative to <4) 4+ school moves in prior 3 years (relative to <2) 4+ convictions/adjudications, prior 24 months Juvenile Rehabilitation service in prior 24 months 2+ foster care placements Indication of mental health treatment need in prior 24 months Any homelessness in school data, prior 3 years Injury, prior 24 months 2-3 school moves in prior 3 years (relative to <2) History of behavior issues in child welfare records PROTECTIVE FACTORS Relative foster care placement (1+) GPA, high (relative to low) INCREASED RISK 2.12 *NOTE: 1) Disrupted adoptions are highly predictive of homelessness (Odds Ratio = 3.39), but the prevalence is extremely low (2 percent) and therefore not included in the above chart; 2) prior homelessness or housing assistance was based on data from ACES and HMIS and included permanent and permanent supportive housing, and 3) all factors are statistically significant at p <.05 except history of behavior issues in child welfare records (p =.22). 12

13 Predicting Exit from TANF Cash Assistance to Stable Employment DECREASED EMPLOYABILITY STRENGTHS Recently gained employment Recently maintained employment 2 months on TANF clock 4+ years college, including BA, MA, or PhD 2-3 years of college, including associate's degree 1 year of college Recent High Wage (HW) program participation CHALLENGES AND OTHER FACTORS Client's child has a health, emotional, or behavioral issue Client has mental health issues that will affect participation Not pregnant and youngest child less than 6 years-old Substance use disorder identified in health records Homeless (sheltered or unhoused) Chronic illness risk score Client's background check limits WorkFirst activities More than 4 years on TANF clock Pregnant Returning cycler starting new spell on TANF INCREASED EMPLOYABILITY 6.07 NOTE: This chart does not show the full list of approximately 100 factors included in the model. 13

14 Challenges to Moving Predictive Models from Research to Practice Raw data is not linked across service systems, cleaned, and turned into meaningful measures in real time There is significant additional work to translate predictive models developed from research databases into applications that inform decision-making in real time Predictive modeling tools require investment in frontline staff readiness to use data in decision-making When presented with data from other systems such as health and behavioral health caseworkers may have ethical concerns about their right to access the data, as well as practical concerns about how to interpret and use the data Improving risk scoring transparency for caseworkers may be more important than maximizing predictive accuracy It is not always obvious how best to use the information obtained from a predictive model Is the risk model sufficiently predictive to be actionable, and if so, do we use a scoring algorithm to identify and target interventions to individuals at greatest risk? Can we develop interventions to address key risk factors? 14

15 STRATEGY 3 Pilot Initiatives Developed, Implemented, and Refined by Local TANF Field Staff Across the State 15

16 Systems to Family Stability: 16 Pilot Sites Washington was selected to be part of the DHHS Administration for Children and Families (ACF) Systems to Family Stability National Policy Academy Testing new approaches to helping low-income families Asked local field offices for pilot proposals focused on helping families achieve and sustain self-sufficiency 16 pilots were selected across 25 local offices Two target populations: TANF Cyclers and Disconnected Youth Array of services, including: Links to services and programs for infants, toddlers, and preschoolers Parenting classes and play-and-learn groups Case-conferencing with schools and truancy boards Training and job opportunities for teens, as well as non-custodial parents 16

17 Rapid Cycle Learning to Continuously Improve Project Design SFS Policy Academy provides training, coaching and access to national expertise in poverty reduction and employment and training programs, which will help improve outcomes and strengthen service delivery Each of the 16 pilot sites is assigned a coach from within DSHS/ESA to serve as a resource and to assist the site as needed with implementation Sites also have access to national expertise for refining project design and implementing simple strategies for rapid cycle learning Sites are encouraged to continuously review their pilot and, if needed, make changes along the way Changes will be documented for further review and discussion As the local pilots progress, they will be assessed to see if the new approaches are effective and feasible for incorporation into standard operating procedures 17

18 STRATEGY 4 Inform Development of an Omnibus Anti-Poverty Legislative Proposal 18

19 Omnibus Anti-Poverty Legislative Proposal: Objectives By 2027, reduce the number of people in Washington living in poverty by 50% Poverty is not too big to take on DSHS/ESA cannot meet this challenge alone We need to work with external stakeholders, other state agency partners, executive leaders, and program staff We need to hear from individuals who struggle daily with the conditions of poverty Use a two generation framework and whole family approach to develop and refine policies and programs that help break the cycle of poverty 19

20 Omnibus Anti-Poverty Legislative Proposal: Process Stakeholder forum to brainstorm legislative concepts for tackling poverty (April 2016) Focus groups with individuals living in poverty to improve our understanding of their needs and circumstances (May 2016) Summit to consolidate anti-poverty initiatives and ideas, build on momentum, and comment on draft legislation (Early Fall 2016) Executive branch vetting and decisions on whether (and if yes, what) to move forward (Fall 2016) 20

21 Omnibus Anti-Poverty Legislative Proposal: Concepts More money in pockets Ex: Reinstate the child support pass-through for TANF families Ex. Eliminate means testing for non-parental caregivers in TANF child-only households Less money out the door Ex: No fee for reconnecting utilities for people receiving public assistance Opportunities to thrive Ex: Exempt the value of one vehicle as part of TANF eligibility 21

22 Acknowledgments David Stillman Babs Roberts David Mancuso Assistant Secretary, DSHS Economic Services Administration Director, Community Services Division, DSHS Economic Services Administration Director, DSHS Research and Data Analysis Division 22