The Plants, They are a-changin': Implications of a changing climate on Colorado Plateau flora and the charismatic soil organisms

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1 The Plants, They are a-changin': Implications of a changing climate on Colorado Plateau flora and the charismatic soil organisms Michael Remke, Ph.D. Student, School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University

2 Colorado Plateau

3 Climate Increasing Summer Precipitation Decreasing Winter Precipitation Increasing Temperature (From cold to hot desert) Several Local Elevation Gradients Varying and unique soil types

4 Ecosystems Activity: Discuss Name the ecosystem Discuss the key environmental chatcteristics... *hints Elevation? Precipitation? Temperature? Disturbances?

5 Ecosystems

6 Ecosystems

7 Ecosystems

8 Ecosystems

9 Ecosystems

10 Ecosystems

11 Ecosystems

12 Colorado Plateau Attributes Ecosystems

13 Colorado Plateau Diverse Ecosystems Mt. Humphreys Elevation: 12,637 Precipitation:>30 Mountains Plateaus and mesas Ca nyo ns Colorado River Elevation: 1,000' Precipitation: <8

14 Diverse Ecosystems Alpine: Cold short growing seasons Lots of snowfall High Elevation No trees Mt. Humphreys Elevation:12,637 Precipitation: >30 Mean Temp: 32 Colorado River Elevation:1000 Precipitation:<8 Mean Temp: 82

15 Diverse Ecosystems Alpine: Cold short growing seasons Lots of snowfall High Elevation No trees Mt. Humphreys Elevation:12,637 Precipitation: >30 Mean Temp: 32 Colorado River Elevation:1000 Precipitation:<8 Mean Temp: 82

16 Diverse Ecosystems Alpine Sub-alpine High elevation forests Lots of snow and summer rain Sub-alpine Fir, Engelmann spruce Rare fires ( years)

17 Diverse Ecosystems Alpine Sub-alpine High elevation forests Lots of snow and summer rain Sub-alpine Fir, Engelmann spruce Rare fires ( years)

18 Alpine Sub-alpine Colorado Plateau Attributes Diverse Ecosystems Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer High species diversity Aspen, White fir, Engelmann Spruce, Douglas Fir, Limber Pine, Southwest White Pine Infrequent fire ( years)

19 Alpine Sub-alpine Colorado Plateau Attributes Diverse Ecosystems Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer High species diversity Aspen, White fir, Engelmann Spruce, Douglas Fir, Limber Pine, Southwest White Pine Infrequent fire ( years)

20 Diverse Ecosystems Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Aspen, Ponderosa Pine, Douglas fir Sometimes white fir and juniper Frequent fire (10-50 years)

21 Diverse Ecosystems Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Aspen, Ponderosa Pine, Douglas fir Sometimes white fir and juniper Frequent fire (10-50 years)

22 Diverse Ecosystems Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Frequent Fire (5-12 years)

23 Diverse Ecosystems Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Frequent Fire (5-12 years)

24 Diverse Ecosystems Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Varied disturbance based on many factors

25 Diverse Ecosystems Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Varied disturbance based on many factors

26 Diverse Ecosystems Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts Mt. Humphreys Elevation:12,637 Precipitation: >30 Mean Temp: 42 Colorado River Elevation:1000 Precipitation:<8 Mean Temp: 82

27 Diverse Ecosystems Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts Mt. Humphreys Elevation:12,637 Precipitation: >30 Mean Temp: 42 Colorado River Elevation:1000 Precipitation:<8 Mean Temp: 82

28 Diverse Ecosystems Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts Mt. Humphreys Elevation:12,637 Precipitation: >30 Mean Temp: 42 Colorado River Elevation:1000 Precipitation:<8 Mean Temp: 82

29 Diverse Ecosystems Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts Riparian Vegetation Springs, Seeps

30 Diverse Ecosystems Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts Riparian Vegetation Springs, Seeps

31 Diverse Ecosystems Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts Riparian Vegetation Springs, Seeps

32 Diverse Ecosystems Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts N Mt. Humphreys Elevation: 12,637 Precipitation:>30 Colorado River Elevation: 1,000' Precipitation: <8 Riparian Vegetation Springs, Seeps

33 Diverse Ecosystems Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts N Mt. Humphreys Elevation: 12,637 Precipitation:>30 Colorado River Elevation: 1,000' Precipitation: <8 Riparian Vegetation Springs, Seeps

34 Climate Change Mt. Humphreys Elevation:12,637 Precipitation: >30 ±?? = Less snow? Mean Temp: = 38.6 Climate Change ~ 3.6 Temp increase in the Southwest ~ Increased variation in precipitation Less snow? More rain? Less rain? More drought? Drought stress worse Because of warming Colorado River Elevation:1000 Precipitation:<8 ±?? = Wetter? Drier??? Mean Temp: = 85.6 Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer???????? Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts Riparian Vegetation Springs, Seeps

35 Climate Change Mt. Humphreys Elevation:12,637 Precipitation: >30 ±?? = Less snow? Mean Temp: = 38.6 Climate Change ~ 3.6 Temp increase in the Southwest ~ Increased variation in precipitation Less snow? More rain? Less rain? More drought? Drought stress worse Because of warming Colorado River Elevation:1000 Precipitation:<8 ±?? = Wetter? Drier??? Mean Temp: = 85.6 Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer???????? Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts Riparian Vegetation Springs, Seeps

36 Diverse Ecosystems Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts Mt. Humphreys Colorado River Elevation:1000 Precipitation:<8 Riparian Vegetation Springs, Seeps

37 Diverse Ecosystems Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts Mt. Humphreys Colorado River Elevation:1000 Precipitation:<8 Riparian Vegetation Springs, Seeps

38 Diverse Ecosystems Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts Mt. Humphreys Elevation: 12,637 Precipitation:>30 Colorado River Elevation: 1,000' Precipitation: <8 Riparian Vegetation Springs, Seeps

39 Ecosystems and Climate Alpine Systems ~ Perhaps the most sensitive to change Remke et al Alpine flowers abundance decreases in warmer environments Common species across environments become more dominant

40 Ecosystems and Climate Alpine Systems ~ Perhaps the most sensitive to change Remke et al Alpine flowers abundance decreases in warmer environments Common species across environments become more dominant

41 Ecosystems and Climate Alpine Systems ~ Perhaps the most sensitive to change Remke et al Alpine flowers abundance decreases in warmer environments Common species across environments become more dominant

42 Diverse Ecosystems Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine These forested systems share similar responses to Climate change Warmer + Drier ~ Greater probability of fire ignition Fires likely to be larger; more frequent (at least at first) Insect Damage Pine/Ips Beetles attack drought stressed tree Potential for more mortality

43 Diverse Ecosystems Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine These forested systems share similar responses to Climate change Warmer + Drier ~ Greater probability of fire ignition Fires likely to be larger; more frequent (at least at first) Insect Damage Pine/Ips Beetles attack drought stressed tree Potential for more mortality

44 Diverse Ecosystems Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper These forest types are less understood; Topics from the previous slide still true here Species on the move? Species may move up in elevation Species loss or conversion? Photo: Craig Allen

45 Diverse Ecosystems Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper These forest types are less understood; Topics from the previous slide still true here Species on the move? Species may move up in elevation Species loss or conversion? Photo: Craig Allen

46 Diverse Ecosystems Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper These forest types are less understood; Topics from the previous slide still true here Species on the move? Species may move up in elevation Species loss or conversion? Photo: Craig Allen

47 Diverse Ecosystems Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper These forest types are less understood; Topics from the previous slide still true here Species on the move? Species may move up in elevation Species loss or conversion? Photo: Craig Allen

48 Ecosystems and Climate Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts Much less work in these systems Species loss likely Conversion of native grasslands to cheat grass or other exotic annual grass dominated Loss of rare plants Loss of unique species to these systems Saguaro will no longer live in Saguaro National Park

49 Ecosystems and Climate Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts Much less work in these systems Species loss likely Conversion of native grasslands to cheat grass or other exotic annual grass dominated Loss of rare plants Loss of unique species to these systems Saguaro will no longer live in Saguaro National Park

50 Ecosystems and Climate Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts Much less work in these systems Species loss likely Conversion of native grasslands to cheat grass or other exotic annual grass dominated Loss of rare plants Loss of unique species to these systems Saguaro will no longer live in Saguaro National Park

51 Ecosystems and Climate Riparian Vegetation Springs, Seeps Sensitive to water availability; Geomorphic process Climate change compounds existing problems Less water ~ Less flooding Most riparian species dependent on a flood regime Mortality of native flora? Conversion to non-native flora?

52 Ecosystems and Climate Riparian Vegetation Springs, Seeps Sensitive to water availability; Geomorphic process Climate change compounds existing problems Less water ~ Less flooding Most riparian species dependent on a flood regime Mortality of native flora? Conversion to non-native flora?

53 Ecosystems and Climate Riparian Vegetation Springs, Seeps Sensitive to water availability; Geomorphic process Climate change compounds existing problems Less water ~ Less flooding Most riparian species dependent on a flood regime Mortality of native flora? Conversion to non-native flora?

54 Ecosystems and Climate Riparian Vegetation Springs, Seeps Sensitive to water availability; Geomorphic process Climate change compounds existing problems Less water ~ Less flooding Less flow in springs a threat to rare plants

55 Ecosystems and Climate Riparian Vegetation Springs, Seeps Sensitive to water availability; Geomorphic process Climate change compounds existing problems Less water ~ Less flooding Less flow in springs a threat to rare plants

56 Ecosystems and Climate Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts The Colorado Plateau is sensitive to environmental change From species migration To species mortality Threats include Loss of biodiversity Loss of ecosystem function Increased erosion

57 Ecosystems and Climate Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts The Colorado Plateau is sensitive to environmental change From species migration To species mortality Threats include Loss of biodiversity Loss of ecosystem function Increased erosion

58 Ecosystems and Climate Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts Solutions? Natural and active management

59 Ecosystems and Climate Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts Solutions? Natural Plants can adapt Plants can move somewhere new Active Management Help plants move? Improve restoration with microflora and fauna?

60 Ecosystems and Climate Solutions: Assist in Plant Migration? Holistic restoration? Soil resources? Micro flora and fauna? Barriers: Different Soil types Topography

61 Ecosystems and Climate Solutions: Assist in Plant Migration? Holistic restoration? Soil resources? Micro flora and fauna? Barriers: Different Soil types Topography

62 Ecosystems and Climate Solutions: Assist in Plant Migration? Holistic restoration? Soil resources? Micro flora and fauna? Barriers: Different Soil types Topography

63 Colorado Plateau Ecosystems and Climate Plants give fungi carbon Fungi give plants soil nutrients and water A plant is not just a plant.. Soil microbes Bacteria Fungi ~ mycorrhizae Facilitate plant survial Nutrient and water uptake Nematodes + more organisms

64 Ecosystems and Climate Active solutions Assisted migration: Move plant across topographic barriers Move plant to cooler site in anticipation of warming from climate change Active restoration and conservation Restoration of plants. Assisted migration of plants

65 Ecosystems and Climate Active solutions Active restoration and conservation Restoration of plants....and soil organisms Assisted migration of plants...and soil organisms

66 Ecosystems and Climate Active solutions Research Using the Southwest Experimental Garden Array 8 unique sites ~4 unique ecosystems ~ 2 unique soils Advanced Weather Monitoring equipment ~On Site Instruments ~Active Irrigation

67 Ecosystems and Climate Active solutions Research Using the Southwest Experimental Garden Array 8 unique sites ~4 unique ecosystems ~ 2 unique soils Advanced Weather Monitoring equipment ~On Site Instruments ~Active Irrigation

68 Ecosystems and Climate Active solutions Research Using the Southwest Experimental Garden Array Plant trees at site 3.6 warmer With or without moving microbes Plant trees at site 3.6 cooler With or without moving microbes

69 Ecosystems and Climate Active solutions Research Using the Southwest Experimental Garden Array Plant trees at site 3.6 cooler With or without moving microbes Plant trees at site 3.6 warmer With or without moving microbes

70 Ecosystems and Climate Active solutions Research Using the Southwest Experimental Garden Array Plants are larger when grown with their microbes Regardless of whether it is warmer or cooler So What Mike? If we consciously plan restoration or assisted migration by also pairing plants with soil microbes We could increase plant resiliency to dynamic climates

71 Ecosystems and Climate Active solutions Research Using the Southwest Experimental Garden Array Plants are larger when grown with their microbes Regardless of whether it is warmer or cooler So What Mike? If we consciously plan restoration or assisted migration by also pairing plants with soil microbes We could increase plant resiliency to dynamic climates

72 Ecosystems and Climate Active solutions Research Using the Southwest Experimental Garden Array So... We can move plants; we can help them by also moving their microbes Other research. Hopes to understand genetic traits that promote resistance to drought/warming and disease.. Cottonwood (Tom Whittham et al) and Southwest White Pine (Kristen Waring)

73 Ecosystems and Climate Active solutions Research Using the Southwest Experimental Garden Array So... We can move plants; we can help them by also moving their microbes Other research. Hopes to understand genetic traits that promote resistance to drought/warming and disease.. Cottonwood (Tom Whittham et al) and Southwest White Pine (Kristen Waring)

74 Ecosystems and Climate Active solutions Don t forget the little guys. Biological soil crust Biocrust is... Cryptobiotic soil Mosses Lichens Cyanobacteria Ecosystem engineers Soil stabalizers Nitrogen Fixers Drought tolerant Don t bust the crust... Sensitive to disturbance Slow growing

75 Ecosystems and Climate Active solutions Don t forget the little guys. Biological soil crust Biocrust is... Cryptobiotic soil Mosses Lichens Cyanobacteria Soil stabalizers Nitrogen Fixers Drought tolerant Sensitive to disturbance Slow growing

76 Ecosystems and Climate Active solutions Don t forget the little guys. Biological soil crust Biocrust is... Cryptobiotic soil Mosses Lichens Cyanobacteria Soil stabalizers Nitrogen Fixers Drought tolerant Sensitive to disturbance Slow growing

77 Ecosystems and Climate Active solutions Don t forget the little guys. Biological soil crust Biocrust is... Cryptobiotic soil Mosses Lichens Cyanobacteria Soil stabalizers Nitrogen Fixers Drought tolerant Sensitive to disturbance Drought tolerent Slow growing Video: Kyle Doherty

78 Ecosystems and Climate Active solutions Don t forget the little guys. Biological soil crust Biocrust is... Cryptobiotic soil Mosses Lichens Cyanobacteria Soil stabalizers Nitrogen Fixers Drought tolerant Sensitive to disturbance Drought tolerent Slow growing Video: Kyle Doherty

79 Ecosystems and Climate Active solutions Don t forget the little guys. Biological soil crust Biocrust is... Cryptobiotic soil Mosses Lichens Cyanobacteria Soil stabalizers Nitrogen Fixers Drought tolerant Sensitive to disturbance Drought tolerent Slow growing Video: Kyle Doherty

80 Ecosystems and Climate Active solutions Don t forget the little guys. Biological soil crust Biocrust is... Cryptobiotic soil Mosses Lichens Cyanobacteria Soil stabalizers Nitrogen Fixers Drought tolerant Sensitive to disturbance Drought tolerent Slow growing Video: Kyle Doherty

81 Ecosystems and Climate Active solutions Don t forget the little guys. Biological soil crust Why are you talking about this stuff Mike??? What if we used crust to jumpstart restoration? We can grow it in the greenhouse Transplant it in the field Nitrogen Fixing favors Plants Can slow soil erosion Can handle drought

82 Ecosystems and Climate Active solutions Don t forget the little guys. Biological soil crust Why are you talking about this stuff Mike??? What if we used crust to jumpstart restoration? We can grow it in the greenhouse Transplant it in the field Nitrogen Fixing favors Plants Can slow soil erosion Can handle drought

83 Colorado Plateau Climate Change and Plants Summary Vegetation may die or move Changes have already been observed We can expect more changes in the future We can be proactive to buffer against changes.. Climate Change ~ 3.6 Temp increase in the Southwest ~ Increased variation in precip Less snow? More rain? Less rain? More drought? Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts Riparian Vegetation Springs, Seeps

84 Colorado Plateau Climate Change and Plants Summary Vegetation may die or move Changes have already been observed We can expect more changes in the future We can be proactive to buffer against changes.. Climate Change ~ 3.6 Temp increase in the Southwest ~ Increased variation in precip Less snow? More rain? Less rain? More drought? Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts Riparian Vegetation Springs, Seeps

85 Ecosystems and Climate on the Colorado Plateau Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts Riparian Vegetation Springs, Seeps

86 Ecosystems and Climate on the Colorado Plateau My challenge to you as guides. Citizen Science Repeated measures of.. Crust cover? Invasive species? Mortality of native plants?...others ideas? Seriously Lets work together to better understand these topics Lets talk ~ michael_remke@nau.edu Alpine Sub-alpine Cool-Moist Mixed Conifer Warm-Dry Mixed Conifer Ponderosa Pine Pinion-Juniper Deserts grasslands Warm Deserts Riparian Vegetation Springs, Seeps

87 Questions? Michael Remke ~ michael_remke@nau.edu Bowker Research Group: bowkerlab.blogspot.com michaelremke.weebly.com ~

88 Disclaimer? Michael Remke All photos Michael Remke unless credit is given otherwise Citations available upon request Acknowledgements Matt Bowker, Jessica Dabell, Katarina Smail, Anita Antonika, Nancy Johnson, Kitty Gehring, Tom Kolb, Harlan Tso, Jeffery Wright, Amy Whipple, Paul Heinrich, Henry Grover, Kyle Doherty, Andy Krohn ~ michael_remke@nau.edu Bowker Research Group: bowkerlab.blogspot.com michaelremke.weebly.com ~

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