Lu Yongjin Shanghai Water Engineering Design & Research Institute

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1 Impacts of Climate Change on Shanghai Flood Prevention Lu Yongjin Shanghai Water Engineering Design & Research Institute

2 flood in Shanghai Shanghai Located downstream of Taihu Lake, whose north is the Estuary of Yangtze River, south is the Hangzhou Bay and east to the East Sea, the Huangpu River run through its urban area. Taihu Lake Hangzhou Bay East Sea Typhoons, rainy spell in early summer is the main origin i of flood. Storm surge and heavy rainstorm are the main objects of flood prevention.

3 Typhoon and storm surge Generally there are 2~3 typhoons influence Shanghai each year, which usually happened during May to Oct.. Most of the typhoons which influence Shanghai land in Zhejiang Province, very a few just land in Shanghai. Due to the wind power, low pressure, water increment and huge waves, overflow and break of dike may cause the city be flooded. Last century, there were 3 records of storm surge overflow in Huangpu River.

4 In recent years, no typhoon attack Shanghai directly, but the tendency become more serious in two ways, high tide level rising and increase of the possibility of super typhoon. It shows that the high tide level at the city center is lower than 5m before 1980, but during 1980s, there ware 3 times over 5m, and from 2000 to now, there have been another 3 times also. The figure below shows the trend of high tide level. n last 20 years, the high tide level rise 7~9mm/a. One of the reason for that is sea-level rise. According to State Oceanic Administration, in recent 3 decades, mean sea level along Chinese coast generally raised 9cm, Shanghai is 12cm; Till 2050, there may be another 13~22cm. 最高潮位 (m) 吴淞口 黄浦公园 y = x y = x 年份

5 It is more clear that disaster of extreme climate seems be more serious. In recent years, Fujian province and Zhejiang province,in the south of Shanghai, are frequently attacked by typhoon, both its power and frequency are higher than average in history. In August 2006, the typhoon Sami landed on the boundary of Zhejiang and Fujian, wind speed was up to 60m/s, it was the most powerful typhoon landed in main land of China during last half century, the strength is equivalent to the Hurricane Katrina, attacked New Orleans in August, We now have to accept that the chance of We now have to accept that the chance of super typhoon occurrence is increasing, the range of typhoon attack directly extended to the north further and the possibility of landing in Shanghai is much higher than before.

6 Rain storm in urban area Just like typhoon, rainstorm happened more frequent in recent years also. On August 25, 2008, hourly rainfall was 118mm, it is the highest record in 130 years; On July 30, 2009, 3 hours rainfall was about 140mm, the return period is 70 years. It is showed that the rainfall of short period rise greatly. Once-a-year heavy rain in the past may happen several times a year now.

7 Countermeasures to super typhoon Sea dike is the outer flood prevention line of Shanghai, Most of them are designed under the standard of 200-year return period of high tide level combine with the wind of velocity 32.7m/s. How to prevent super typhoon with the wind velocity such as more than 50m/s? We now have some ideas : 1. Set up second defense line. Which Use the abandoned old sea dike and/or main traffic road paralleling to sea dike to form a sealed circle. Once the sea dike of most outer failed by super typhoon, the second line may limit the range of flooded and the damage of inner land may be reduced effectively.

8 2. Beach nourish and ecosystem improve in front of the sea dike. Beach in front of the sea dike play a important role for ecology and wave protection. But in past 3 decades, urban construction make large amount of high beach were reclaimed for land. To change the bad situation, local government request when one beach is reclaimed, double beach must be nourished.

9 3. Improve the sea dike to be more compatible for the action of overtopping, try for no collapse even when overflow happened by super typhoon. 4. Complete safety monitoring, early warning and disaster management system.

10 5. Construct a storm surge barrier at the mouth of Huangpu River. Storm surge of Huangpu River is the most direct and lethal menace to Shanghai urban, and the only defensive line is flood wall along the River, which practical defense ability is about 200 years return period. The width of the Huangpu River is about 550m, the main navigable span is primarily 225m.If the storm surge barrier constructed,it may be the second large in the world.

11 Countermeasures to heavy rainstorm Currently the standard of Shanghai drainage is 1~5 year return period, most is 1-year, and dthe peak rainfall llis 36mm/h, maximum for 5-year return period is 56mm/h. Obviously, it cannot adapt to heavy rainstorm. To solve the problem, some new concepts and methods should be adopted: 1. Build Natural Drainage System (NDS) NDS combined with civil engineering and ecological engineering, make use of absorption ability of soil and plants to reduce the size of draining pipe, and to reduce dirty rain water direct into rivers. There several specific practices,such as connecting with plants beside roads and large area of vegetation into a whole; replace impervious road surface with porous road surface, increase green land and reduce hard impervious coverage.

12 2. Green roof Plant on the plat roof can effectively reduce rain runoff and heat island effect. In the past decade, to solve the roof leaking, heat prevention, and to improve city landscape, Shanghai municipal cost a lot in flat-to-sloping roof reforming, now it should be the time of roof-with-green.

13 3. Build lower public green and leisure places The way is to stagnant rainwater on purpose to reduce the surface runoff by using street vegetation, low lands. 4. Build underground regulative pool(urp) In old urban area, it is hard to reform drainage system, URP can play a role of integration of water transition, storage and rainwater purification. Not only it can improve the adaptability to rainstorm, but also greatly reduce initial polluted rainwater into rivers directly.

14 5. Strictly limit the reduction of water surface The function of rivers and lakes in urban area is irreplaceable, such as store rainwater and improve micro-climate. In order to get more land, much rivers and lakes are filled in the past, water surface ratio in the city reduced from 4%~5% % to about 3%, in rural area reduced from 13%~16% to less than 12%, even about 8% in some areas. In recent 5 years, this descending trend is strictly controlled, water surface ratio in urban area even increased a little.

15 Conclusions From the 1980s, much has been done for flood prevention, but the future is not so optimistic. To solve the problem, we suppose that something should be paid more attention: 1. Integrate Flood prevention works much more with urban general plan,to consider the subject under the requirement of sustainable development and comprehensively utility; 2. Distinguish the defense objects by their urgency and severity, wise to cope with the current and the future to implement disaster reduction step by step; 3. Do one s best for super typhoon and extreme rainstorm,as if it may truly happen in very near future. THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

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