Renewable Energy Project Development Programme (PDP) East Africa

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1 Exportinitiative Erneuerbare Energien Renewable Energy Project Development Programme (PDP) East Africa Potential for investment in solar energy in East Africabusiness opportunities for German companies Mark Hankins, Integrated Energy Solutions

2 East African Market situation and industry structure An overview of the current market situation of solar energy in East Africa Ethiopia, Kenya Tanzania Status Quo Industry structure

3 Why Is The East African Solar Market of Interest? ENCOURAGING TRENDS FOR SOLAR EXTREMELY LARGE MARKET EARLY STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT HIGH DUTIES, POOR POLICY High electricity prices High costs for generator fuels Very low electricity access Grid demand is outstripping supply! Growing economies Improving policies & drivers Abundant insolation Sudan GOOD POLICY, LOW DUTIES MATURING MARKET GROWING DEMAND GOVERNMENT PROCUREMENTS Rwanda GOOD POLICY REGIME GOVERNMENT PROCUREMENTS RELATIVELY SMALL MARKET Uganda Tanzania Ethiopia Kenya STRONG PRIVATE SECTOR, MATURE MARKET WEAK POLICY, LOW DUTIES & VAT GROWING DEMAND GOVERNMENT PROCUREMENTS NEW OPPORTUNITIES (TELECOM, TOURISM) IMPROVING POLICY, LOW DUTIES & VAT EARLY STAGE PRIVATE SECTOR GROWING ECONOMY, GROWING DEMAND NEW OPPORTUNITIES (TELECOM, TOURISM) GOVERNMENT PROCUREMENT

4 East African Country Electrification Background Country Un-Electrified Rural HHs (million) Grid Size (MW) Rural Electrification Existing PV Market 2008 (kwp/yr) Kenya <5% >750 Uganda 4,5 320 <2% >350 Tanzania <2% <400 Ethiopia <3% >400 Rwanda <3% <100 TOTAL >29 million HHs >3200 MW <3% >2 MWp

5 SOLAR ENERGY MARKET SECTORS Description KENYA TANZANIA UGANDA RWANDA ETHIOPIA Household systems (SHS) Schools, clinics, water pumps, street lighting, Government High end HH, tourism, small business, telecomm PV increasingly competitive as hybrid power source XXXXX XXXXX XXX X XXXXX XX XXX XXX XXXX XXX XXXX XXXX XX X XX XXX XXX XX X XX

6 General Trends for Solar Energy Business MARKET VOLUME >2 MWp/Year Steady growth (15-25%/year) Kenya leads, following by Uganda, Ethiopia & Tanzania MARKET SEGMENTS SHS Institutional & Government Telecomm (emerging) Tourism (emerging) SWH 2005 Breakdown

7 Policy For Solar Energy Description KENYA TANZANIA UGANDA RWANDA ETHIOPIA SHS SUBSIDIES NO YES YES NO NO WB/REA WB/REA SOLAR DUTIES & VAT NO NO NO?? YES >60% FEED IN TARIFFS FOR PV ON HORIZON?? HYDRO, WIND, COGEN NO POSSIBLE NO UNLIKELY GOVERNMENT PROCUREMENT (PV) ~$1M/ YEAR INCREASE >$5M YEAR INCREASE >$5M YEAR STEADY >$5M YEAR INCREASE >$5M YEAR??? SOLAR WATER HEATER POLICY SUPPORT? LIKELY IN 2010 NOT SPECI- FIED YES LIKELY NO

8 KEY FEATURES OF THE KENYA SOLAR MARKET

9 PV MARKET SECTORS: >1.2 MWP/YEAR Solar PV Technology Off-grid HH electrification & small scale commercial Estimated installed capacity Estimated kwp installed/year (2008) Degree Competition >6-8 MWp >700 kw Extremely competitive. players of Many Off-grid community systems (including institutional and pumping systems) >1.5 MWp >250 kw Dominated by wholesaler/agent partnerships Telecom >100 kwp >100 kwp Emergent few players Tourism >50 kwp N/A Emergent

10 KENYA PV MARKET SET-UP Established importers (±8) represent international PV companies and sell their products to their selected distributors around the country. Opportunistic importers import PV modules & distribute to retailers of electric goods and shops. Sales agent companies target geographic and niche markets that they develop on behalf of the wholesaler High-end niche companies operate in NGO, UN and increasingly tourism and telecommunication markets. Some specialize remote parts of Sudan, Northern Kenya or Somalia. Diverse niches (pumping, back-up, etc). Technicians play key role in the market. Some skilled technicians operate as re-sellers and as sales agents in developed niches.

11 KENYA SOLAR WATER HEATER MARKET Long established trade Historically mixed history poor installation and follow up Predominately single-unit direct and indirect thermosyphon 4-6 major players Solar Water Heater Technology Estimated installed/year (2008) (M 2 ) Estimated financial volume ( /Year/2008) Urban Households M Tourism and Institution M

12 Key Features of the Tanzanian Market

13 TANZANIAN PV MARKET SECTORS: >300 KWP/YEAR Solar PV Technology Estimated installed capacity Estimated kwp installed/ye ar (2008) Degree of Competition Off-grid HH electrification 1 MWp >200 kw Medium & small scale commercial Off-grid community 0.3 MWp >100 kw Medium systems (including institutional and pumping systems) Tourism >50 kwp N/A Emergent

14 TANZANIAN PV MARKET SET-UP Dar es Salaam, Arusha and Mwanza are primary sales hubs established importers represent international PV companies. One of these is a battery company that sells Kenyan modified SLI batteries for household systems. 3 of these companies are subsidiaries of Kenyan companies A few opportunistic importers import PV modules and low cost components, as and when they can afford, from changing suppliers and distribute them to retailers of electric goods. There is no local battery production so all batteries are imported by sea or overland from Kenya and South Africa. Scores of retail agents (usually electric goods or hardware stores) represent importers and sell to regional markets that they develop on behalf of the wholesaler.

15 KEY FEATURES OF THE ETHIOPIAN MARKET

16 ETHIOPIAN PV MARKET SECTORS: >600 KWP/YEAR Solar PV Technology Off-grid household electrification & small scale commercial (Solar Home System) Estimated installed capacity >1.2 MWp (Apprx to 2008) Estimated kwp installed in 2008 Estimated financial volume ( for 2008) Degree of Competition >200 kw > 3M Very low competition. Customer s choice of equipment is usually limited by availability. Off-grid community systems (including institutional, worship places and pumping systems) >500 kwp >220 kw ~ 2.5M Large size supplies have always been international competitive bids. Telecom >3.5 MWp >150kW ~ 2M All equipment is supplied by international tenders.

17 ETHIOPIAN PV MARKET SET-UP 5-6 major players in the industry which import PV systems and components from various suppliers. Companies typically import systems in small consignments because of two reasons. New entrants to the market who have links or affiliation to international PV companies have set their presence in the country waiting for major demands. Traders import whenever they can but usually obtain systems locally for installation businesses. NGOs and regional governments (Oromia and Southern Region) actively promote solar PV systems

18 Structure, Capacity & Market Reach Parameter Kenya Tanzania Ethiopia Supply of Product Very high Good OK Large players > Market reach to smaller towns Good Growing Poor Public knowledge of solar >75% >50% >30% Market diversification Solar business associations Training capacity Exports Many niches Over the counter, procurement Over the counter, procurement 2, weak 1, weak formation Consultants, projects Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Somalia Consultants, projects Rwanda, Burundi, etc. Institution, projects Few

19 Exportinitiative Erneuerbare Energien Further Information on the PDP East Africa About solar energy in East Africa Mark Hankins - Thank you for your attention!

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