The Myth/Reality of Rising Africa

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1 The Myth/Reality of Rising Africa 2013/4/15 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. Public Management Consulting Department Emerging and BoP markets Consulting Group Group Manager Junji Koike Marunouchi Kitaguchi Bldg Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo ,Japan

2 The Myth/Reality of Rising Africa Contrary to the common perception of Japanese companies, business circumstances in Africa have been dramatically changing. Myth Market for specific industries African market is only for natural resources and infrastructure businesses. Reality Opportunities for any businesses Growing middle class creates business opportunities for broader industries. Tens of millions market size Market size in each country is limited. Low cost & low quality African consumers prefer low cost products and services. Billions market size Increasing number of companies see regional economic communities as targets. Valuable brands & high quality Growing middle class purchase products of higher quality and better design. Recycled products & services Human resources in Africa are not innovative and imitate products in developed nations. Innovative products & services Talented human resources in Africa have begun to create innovative products. 1

3 1Opportunities for any businesses Sub-Saharan Africa has been witnessing rapid economic growth and creating various business opportunities. GDP growth rate in Sub-Saharan Africa exceeds the world average and is next to developing countries in Asia. Changes and Forecast of Real GDP Growth Rates around the World ( ) Source) Created based on World Population Prospects (United Nations) 2

4 1Opportunities for any businesses Africa has developed nations equivalent to some growing nations in South-East Asia. GDP per capita for South Africa and Tunisia is estimated to reach the same level as that for China and Thailand, respectively, from now to According to this estimate, GDP per capita for Algeria, Egypt, and Morocco will exceed that for Indonesia, India, and Vietnam. Changes and Forecast of GDP Per Capita (PPP) for Major Countries in Northern Africa, the Republic of South Africa, and Major Countries in Asia ( ) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 China South Africa Thailand Tunisia Algeria Egypt Morocco Indonesia India Vietnam 2, (Year) Source) Created based on World Population Prospects (United Nations) and World Economic Outlook (IMF) 3

5 1Opportunities for any businesses Middle class populations in Africa has been rapidly growing. Some countries have 20% to 40% of population as middle class GDP per capita increased in Africa in ten years, from some 700 US dollars in 2000 to over 1,600 US dollars in GDP per capita is expected to further increase in the future. Changes and Forecast of Nominal GDP and GDP Per Capita in Africa ( ) (Unit: %) Per capita GDP growth rate Per capiat Real GDP growth rate Source) Created based on the Low Case Scenario in Africa in 50 Years Time (African Development Bank) 4

6 Percentage (Left) and Number (Right) of Middle-class People whose Daily Consumption is 4 Dollars or more in African Countries in (%) Tunisia Gabon Egypt Botswana Algeria Morocco South Africa Ghana Côte d'ivoire Kenya Cape Verde Cameroon Republic of The Gambia Djibouti Angola Senegal Lesotho Benin Nigeria Swaziland Comoros Namibia Togo Republic of Congo Ethiopia Uganda Mali Chad Guinea-Bissau Sierra Leone Zambia Niger Mauritania Malawi Guinea Madagascar Burkina Faso Burundi Tanzania Rwanda Mozambique Liberia Tunisia Gabon Egypt Botswana Algeria Morocco South Africa Ghana Côte d'ivoire Kenya Cape Verde Cameroon Republic of The Djibouti Angola Senegal Lesotho Benin Nigeria Swaziland Comoros Namibia Togo Republic of Congo Ethiopia Uganda Mali Chad Guinea-Bissau Sierra Leone Zambia Niger Mauritania Malawi Guinea Madagascar Burkina Faso Burundi Tanzania Rwanda Mozambique Liberia 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 ( 千人 ) 4, , ,013 8,755 10,017 4,812 4,288 6, , ,591 1, ,071 15,874 2,851 1, , Source) Created based on the Low Case Scenario in Africa in 50 Years Time (African Development Bank) ,120

7 2Billions market size As regional economic communities develop, broader size of regional markets will attract more investments. At present, economic communities are formed by regions, some of which have been seeking means to enhance their functions in earnest. It is also expected that internal custom duties are to be eliminated or non-tariff barriers are to be removed through system coordination in the future. Scope of Each Regional Economic Community CEN-SAD Morocco AMU Tunisia Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic Algeria Libya Egypt COMESA Cape Verde Mauritania Mali Niger Senegal ECCAS Eritrea Chad Sudan Gambia Guinea-Bissau IGAD Burkina Faso South Sudan Djibouti Guinea Benin Nigeria (Republic of Sierra Leone Togo Ethiopia Cote d'ivoire South Sudan) Liberia Ghana Central African ECOWAS CameroonRepublic Equatorial Guinea Somalia Uganda Kenya Sao Tome' and Principe Gabon Rwanda Democratic Republic of the Congo Republic of the Congo Burundi EAC Tanzania Seychelles Angola Zambia Malawi Comoros Namibia Zimbabwe Mozambique Botswana Madagascar Swaziland Mauritius South Africa Lesotho SADC Source) Created based on various data METI Doing Business in Africa 6

8 2Billions market size As regional economic communities, market size in Africa is already equivalent to that of Asian major nations. Many companies already develop entry strategies into regional economic communities. Sizes of Representative Regional Economic Communities Source) METI Doing Business in Africa 7

9 3Innovative products & services Sales of higher-quality and better-design products have been increasing thanks to growing middle class. Sumitomo chemical develops Olysetnet for middle and wealthy class and expand its business in Africa. Olysetnet Classic Source) Sumitomo Chemical Web site 8

10 4Innovative products & services Competent human resources in Africa have begun to create innovative products and services. Businesses for IT engineering and mobile application services have been increasing. Source) Rexvirt Communications Web Web site 9

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