Outlook for Sugarcane Biofuels Building on Brazil s s Experience with ethanol

Transcription

1 BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION UNIÃO DA INDÚSTRIA DE CANA-DE-AÇÚCAR Outlook for Sugarcane Biofuels Building on Brazil s s Experience with ethanol Joel Velasco Chief Representative North America 1

2 OUTLINE 1 Overview of the Sugarcane Industry 2 Building Blocks of Energy Security 3 Sugarcane & Climate Change 4 U.S. Policies 2

3 ABOUT UNICA UNICA is the leading sugarcane industry association, representing 118 producers and mills in Brazil Responsible for 60% of all ethanol and sugar production in Brazil Emerging as a leader in the generation of bioelectricity already meeting 3% of Brazil s electricity demand International presence, now in Washington & Brussels, to engage in constructive dialogue 3

4 SUGARCANE PRODUCTS Note: Estimates based on available data projections. 4

5 CURRENT PRODUCTION 7 BGY MW 31 MT 5 Note: Estimates based on available data projections.

6 ESTIMATED PRODUCTION 2008/09e 2015/ /21 Sugarcane production (million tons) ,038 Sugar (million tons) Internal market and stocks Surplus Export Ethanol (billion gallons) Internal market and stocks Surplus Export Bioelectricity (MW average) Bioelectricity in Brazilian energy matrix (%) 3% 15% 15% Note: e = estimated data; potential generation of surplus electricity has been calculated based on the utilization of 75% of the available bagasse and 50% of the available straw, and considering the sugarcane production during 2007/08 harvest season, Sources UNICA, Copersucar and Cogen, 6

7 Building Blocks of Energy Security Fuel + Infrastructure + Prices 7 7

8 FUEL: SUGARCANE ETHANOL IN BRAZIL South-Central region represents about 90% of sugarcane harvest Sources: NIPE-Unicamp, IBGE and CTC 8

9 FUEL: SUGARCANE ETHANOL IN BRAZIL Sources: INPE Canasat 9

10 FUEL: DEFORESTATION UNRELATED TO SUGARCANE -0,04-0,84-0, Sources: INPE and UNICA. Deforestation data is calendar year while sugarcane production is based on harvest. 10

11 INFRASTRUCTURE: FLEX FUEL CARS & DISTRIBUITON 11

12 INFRASTRUCTURE: FLEX FUEL CARS & DISTRIBUITON About 90% of new cars sold are Flex Fuel Vehicles Domestic Ethanol Sales (E-100) Accumulated Sales of Flex-Fuel Vehicles Source: ANP & ANFAVEA 12

13 PRICES: CONSUMERS NEED TO SEE SAVINGS Petroleum Gasoline (E-25) Ethanol (E-100) Sources: IMF, IPEA, CEPEA/ESALQ, ANP 13

14 RESULT: GASOLINE IS NOW THE ALTERNATIVE FUEL Gasoline Ethanol Source: ANP & UNICA 14

15 RESULT: 1% OF ARABLE LAND DISPLACES 50% GASOLINE Millions of Acres (2007) % BRAZIL 2103 TOTAL ARABLE LAND 877 total land % arable land 1. Total Crop Land % 21.6% Soybean % 5.8% Corn % 3.9% Sugarcane % 2.2% Sugarcane for ethanol 8 0.4% 1.0% Orange 2 0.1% 0.3% 2. Pastures % 49% 3. Available area Total arable land (crop land + pastures) % 30% Sources: IBGE, UNICA 15

16 Sugarcane & Climate Change Mitigating Climate Change Impact 16 16

17 UNDERSTANDING SUGARCANE S ENERGY Source: UNICA, CTC. 17

18 AVERAGE PRODUCTION YIELDS Liters per hectare Sugarcane (Brazil) Beets (Europe) Sugarcane (India) Corn (USA) Cassava (Thailand) Wheat (Europe) Source: IEA International Energy Agency (2005), USDA (2008), MTEC, MAPA, ICONE, UNICA 18

19 NET ENERGY BALANCE Resulting energy for every unit of fossil fuel input Sugarcane (Brazil) Wheat (Europe) Beets (Europe) Corn (USA) Source: World Watch Institute, compilation of various sources. 19

20 AVOIDED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS Compared with yesterday s gasoline baseline Note: Reductions represent well-to-wheel CO 2 -equivalent GHG emissions avoided from unit of ethanol compared to gasoline, calculated on a life-cycle basis. Source: IEA International Energy Agency (May, 2004), based on a review of recent articles. 20

21 ABOVE & BELOW GROUND CARBON UPTAKE 3 METERS 2 METERS 1 METER tons C/ha 5-7 years 1 METER 2 METERS 3-5 tons C/ha 3 METERS 4 METERS Source: Polo de Biocombustivel (Weber Amaral) from various sources. 21

22 CANE VS. PASTURES: CARBON UPTAKE Annual tons carbon per hectare 3-8 t C/ha t C/ha Source: Polo de Biocombustivel (Weber Amaral) from various sources. 22

23 Sugarcane & U.S. Policy RFS & LCFS Requirements 23 23

24 U.S. RENEWABLE FUELS STANDARD Sugarcane Ethanol with +50% GHG reduction Source: EISA of 2008, Dept of Energy, ITC; E-10 Blend Wall Limit based on EIA s projections of gasoline consumption and do not include bottleneck and other infrastructure concerns. 24

25 LOW CARBON FUELS STANDARD Gram of CO 2 per megajoule ILUC using GTAP Source: California Air Resources Board s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, March

26 LOW CARBON FUELS STANDARD & SUGARCANE Gram of CO 2 per megajoule E-10 with Sugarcane 73.4 gco 2 /MJ E-10 with Sugarcane 27.4 gco 2 /MJ Source: California Air Resources Board s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, March