GENERATIONAL STABILITY AUSTRALIA S NUCLEAR POWER WORKFORCE 2020 TO 2050
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1 GENERATIONAL STABILITY AUSTRALIA S NUCLEAR POWER WORKFORCE 2020 TO 2050 PRELIMINARY REPORT OCTOBER 2011
2 COPYRIGHT & DISCLAIMER Copyright 2012 Jeff Pang for Sebenico Group Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. This publication is copyright. This publication may be downloaded or printed and reproduced in an unaltered form only. The material contained within this report has been developed by Jeff Pang for Sebenico Group Pty Ltd. Jeff Pang for Sebenico Group Pty Ltd accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the review and its contents and accepts no liability in respect of the materials contained within the report. Readers should exercise their own skill and judgment in evaluating the review report and, where necessary, obtain independent professional advice. Jeff Pang for Sebenico Group Pty Ltd accepts no responsibility for any loss or liability incurred or suffered where loss or liability was caused by the infringement of intellectual property rights, including moral rights of any third person. Jeff Pang for Sebenico Group Pty Ltd projections are based on a range of hypothetical scenarios and assumptions, and are not indicative of the likelihood of a specific outcome occurring.
3 +37,000 GENERATIONAL STABILITY A COMMITMENT TO INCLUDE NUCLEAR POWER INTO THE LOW-EMISSION ENERGY MIX WOULD FURTHER DELIVER UP TO 37,000 OPERATIONAL AND CONSTRUCTION JOBS DIRECTLY INTO AUSTRALIA S REGIONAL ECONOMIES
4 NUCLEAR INDUSTRY WORKFORCE REQUIREMENTS Previous studies undertaken into nuclear power in Australia considered the economic and environmental benefits. The 2006, Uranium Mining, Processing and Nuclear Energy Opportunities for Australia? report considered two nuclear power scenarios, 12 and 25 gigawatts (GW) by There have been no reports to date considering the associated workforce requirements. This preliminary report seeks to fill that gap by considering the workforce requirements, direct and indirect employment opportunities, education and skilling challenges by 2050 under three nuclear power scenarios ranging from 12GW to 50GW of generation capacity. The low, mid-range and high scenarios in this report involve bringing nuclear power plants into operation from 2020 and 2025 until total nuclear power generation capacity reaches 12GW, 25GW and 50GW by The occupation estimates are derived from power plant specific workforce averages for single and double unit nuclear power plants. The estimates on the following page are based on scenarios containing a combination of single and double unit plant types. Occupation specific estimates of the operation and construction workforce requirements for each of the scenarios are provided for the period between 2020 and The operational and construction workforce requirements across the three scenarios are based on a range of plant sizes, technology, economic and workforce assumptions including consortiums constructing nuclear power plants on a turnkey basis, and engineering and procurement contracts requiring the majority of the global engineering and construction workload to be undertaken by Australian workers. Australia s uranium exploration, mining and milling industry along with experts in nuclear science, research and regulatory bodies already provide over 2,000 nuclear power related jobs for the Australian economy. This preliminary report indicates that a commitment to include nuclear power into the low-emission energy mix would further deliver up to 37,000 operational and construction jobs directly into Australia s regional economies (see Figure 1)
5 NUCLEAR POWER GENERATION CAPACITY The scenarios in this report involve bringing nuclear power plants into operation from around 2020 and 2025 until total nuclear power generation capacity reaches 12GW, 25GW and 50GW by These scenarios involve moderate increases in generation capacity until around The majority of plants are assumed to be constructed between 2030 and 2045, based on plants becoming more economic once the first few plants are operational, and in order for greenhouse gas emission reduction targets to be reached by 2050 (see Figure 2).
6 POWER PLANT OPERATIONAL WORKFORCE REQUIREMENTS The long-term power plant onsite, offsite and contractor workforce requirements are expected to rise to 7,000 persons under the low scenario, up to 15,000 persons under the mid-range, and up to 30,000 persons under the high scenario by 2050 (see Figure 3). The number of nuclear power plant operational workers will increase up to 30,000 by 2050 (see Figure 5). As soon as 2030, Australia will require up to 10,000 nuclear power plant operational workers including scientists, engineers, power station managers, security, health and safety workers (see Figure 4).
7
8 CONSTRUCTION WORKFORCE REQUIREMENTS In addition to the long-term operational requirements, short-term construction workforce requirements for nuclear power stations will be significant by 2030 (see Figure 6). While the annual construction workforce estimates are highly sensitive due to peak workforce requirements and the specific timing of new power plant investment, the construction workforce requirements are expected to average around 7,000 jobs between 2035 and 2045 under the high scenario.
9 INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT REQUIREMENTS Under the mid-range and high scenarios up to 11,000 and 18,000 indirect employment opportunities respectively will be created for the nuclear fuel, waste and supply chain workforce for power station operations and maintenance (in addition to the 18,000 and 37,000 direct jobs) (see Figure 7).
10 SKILL DEVELOPMENT REQUIREMENTS Over half of the new jobs will require specific training in nuclear energy and safety, and additional development opportunities will arise across a broad range of occupations. Skilled electrical and mechanical technicians will comprise about a quarter of the workforce, placing further pressure on occupations already facing skill shortages. Engineers and professional occupations including scientists will comprise around half of the workforce, requiring significant increases in university graduates. Business, security, logistics and support roles comprise around a quarter of the workforce and will require additional training to manage the unique characteristics presented by the nuclear energy industry (see Figure 8).
11
12 Copyright 2011 Jeff Pang for Sebenico Group Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. This publication is copyright. This publication may be downloaded or printed and reproduced in an unaltered form only. Contact: Website:
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