NW Houston Chamber Economic Outlook Forum. Demographic Update. March 28, 2014
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1 NW Houston Chamber Economic Outlook Forum Demographic Update March 28, 2014
2 Population & Survey Analysts Largest Demographic Firm in Texas Work Only with School Districts Work with Approximately Districts per Year Has a 30+ Year Relationship with Real Estate Experts in Houston Region Demographic Team includes Specialists in Economics, Geography, Legal Issues, and GIS Systems, as well as Demography
3 Recent Clients ( ) Birdville I.S.D. Bryan I.S.D. Cedar Hill I.S.D. Conroe I.S.D. Copperas Cove I.S.D. Crosby I.S.D. Cy-Fair I.S.D. Dayton I.S.D. DeSoto I.S.D. Dripping Springs Duncanville I.S.D. Fort Bend I.S.D. Friendswood I.S.D. Frisco I.S.D. Godley I.S.D. Goose Creek C.I.S.D. Highland Park I.S.D. Humble I.S.D. Katy I.S.D. Klein I.S.D. Lake Travis I.S.D. Lamar C.I.S.D. Leander I.S.D. Lovejoy I.S.D. Manor I.S.D. Mansfield I.S.D. Mesquite I.S.D. Midway I.S.D. Needville I.S.D. Ector Co. I.S.D. Plainview I.S.D. Prosper I.S.D. Sheldon I.S.D. Waller I.S.D. Waco I.S.D.
4 Primary vs. Secondary Data Sources Secondary Data Texas State Data Center, Houston-Galveston Area COG, and many other entities depend heavily on extrapolation methods (use of past rates of change to predict a future rate of growth or decline) PASA studies the following: Leading Indicators of Employment Primary Data: Projected Housing for Active Subdivisions & for As-Yet-Undeveloped Tracts Ratios of Population and of Students per Housing Unit per Subdivision/Apt. Population Regeneration vs. Decline -- in Existing, Built-Out Subdivisions
5 Absolute Change in Enrollment Student Total Enrollment (Pre-PEIMS) 4th Week Survey, Fall to Fall 2013 (pre-peims Enrollment)
6 Absolute Change in Student Total Enrollment Enrollment (Pre-PEIMS) 4th Week Survey, Fall to Fall 2012
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11 West Grand Parkway Corridor 12,569 Projected Additional Housing Units October October 2018
12 Houston Region -- and NW Houston Employment Trends Employment Growth and Critical Employment Centers -- Both Act as Local Population Growth Stimuli Houston area = better than elsewhere economy with economic activity growing at twice the rate of the Nation Houston has now added over double the number of jobs lost in the economic downturn Multi-nucleated employment hubs surrounding Klein I.S.D., Conroe I.S.D., Aldine I.S.D. and Spring I.S.D. In these school districts, the strongest economic sectors are Education and Medical Services; Professional and Management Jobs; Manufacturing; and Retail Trade
13 Future Transportation and Other Infrastructure Improvements Transportation and Other Infrastructure Improvements Act as Local Economic Development Stimuli The Grand Parkway will be the most significant driver of residential growth in the NW Houston area segments F-1 & F-2 & G -- completed by Dec. 2015) places the Klein, Spring, and Conroe School Districts on the cusp of accelerated residential and commercial growth on the north side of the Houston region; North Harris County Regional Water Authority has been adding new pipelines, and will continue to do so through 2030, which immediately stimulates residential and commercial development.
14 Utility Districts in Klein I.S.D.
15 Development Density: Klein I.S.D. % of KISD Built out 67% Active 9% Undev. planned Undev. no plans 2% 19% Parks 3%
16 NW Houston Population and Housing Trends NW Houston is adding more housing units than any other specific 135-sq. mile Houston area for the five-year projection period ending in Oct., 2018, but the western Grand Parkway catchment area of the same 135-sq. mile size is also accelerating in housing growth Even if there is a downturn in economic activity, the coveted residential locations may continue to increase at the same rate of growth Socioeconomic factors play a big role in spawning high residential growth measured via school district data through test scores and the percent of disadvantaged students (i.e., quality of life factors) In the downturn and now in the recovery, transportation improvements have played the biggest role in determining the locational configuration of housing and population growth for suburban school districts Greater surface water supplies and a focus on more predictable long-term water supplies will affect each suburban school district; reservoirs are likely to be required for some undeveloped-tracts to be utilized
17 NW Houston Chamber Economic Outlook Forum Demographic Update March 28, 2014
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