BUEC 560: Term Paper # 1

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1 Marius Valentin Todirascu MBA Class 1 st year 23/24 NRE - specialization BUEC 56: Term Paper # 1 Gas Trade and Pipelines in North America - 1 -

2 Table of Contents I. Introduction II. Present situation. 1. Natural Gas Demand in Canadian and US Gas Market Regions. 2. Natural Gas Supply in North America 3. Natural Gas Resources and Reserves in North America 4. Natural Gas Trade on the North American Market 5. Major Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines and Export Capacity 6. Prices Evolution III. Future Forecasts. 1. Future Demand. 2. Supply levels, Prices, Pipeline developments - 2 -

3 I. Introduction The National Energy Board s forecasts for energy demand and supply to 225 indicates that due to the structure of the Canadian economy, energy use patterns change slowly and Canada will continue to satisfy the majority of its energy needs from fossil fuels in the next 2 years and likely for a considerable period thereafter. In this scenario, natural gas will be in high demand as a premium clean-burning fossil fuel although a major uncertainty is the availability of supplies of natural gas throughout this period. North America s natural gas supply/demand balance is growing tighter leading to higher prices and price volatility. Canada is now part of an integrated North American market where natural gas is traded on a daily basis with prices reflecting demand and supply factors in both Canada and United States. Higher, more volatile natural gas price damage the competitiveness of many companies in different fields since in other parts of the world the price of natural gas is lower and more stable. Associations from these industries support the integrated North American natural gas market and consider that market-based approaches are the best way to encourage new sources of gas supply to develop avoiding the dramatic price fluctuations in natural gas prices that occurred in the last years as a strictly North American phenomenon. The support for market based price formation is the physical contact between demand and supply throughout the continent mainly achieved by a network of pipelines that links the major producing areas to the major consuming regions. Without this network of pipelines the integrated gas market would not be possible. Since on the demand side prices are driven mainly by weather, storage levels, economic growth and fuel competition, the pipeline capacity plays an important role on the supply side along with the production, drilling rates, storage, etc

4 II. Present situation 1. Natural Gas Demand in Canadian and US Gas Market Regions The North American gas market has been divided into several regions using mainly geographic criteria but also considering particularities of demand and supply, pipeline connections, etc. Canada was divided into two market regions: Western Canada an Eastern Canada while United States gas market consists of 6 regional markets: West, Midwest, Central, Gulf, South Atlantic and Northeast. (see Map 1 on page 2.) In 22, the largest demand growth in North America occurred in the South Atlantic. There were significant decreases in western regions in both Canada and United States. Because of higher prices, industrial demand was generally down in Western Canada and US as well as in the Gulf region. The natural gas demand in 22 and its evolution from 21 are presented in the following table: 22 (Bcf) 21 (Bcf) US Residential 4,914 4,776 US Commercial 3,113 3,38 US Industrial 7,178 7,363 US Electric Power 5,552 5,343 US Other 1,696 1,727 Total US Demand 22,453 22,247 US LNG Exports US Exports to Mexico Total US Gas Disposition 22,779 22,453 Canada Residential Canada Commercial Canada Industrial Canada Electric Power Canada Other Total Canadian Demand 2,78 2,697 Total N.A. Demand 25,161 24,944 Total N.A. Disposition 25,487 25,15 Source: EIA May 23, StatsCan, NR Can estimates. Change (Bcf) Change (%) 3% 2% -3% 4% -2% 1% -5% 88% 1% 7% 6% 4% -1% -17% % 1% 1% - 4 -

5 The North American gas demand and consumption was up 1%. US demand increased 1% due to weather effect on core (residential and commercial) markets. EIA introduced new definitions of the industrial and power generation demand sectors (non-core demand) in April 23 that lowered the values calculated using the old definitions. In Canada, the total gas demand remained virtually flat when compared to

6 Despite the overall 1% increase there were important changes in certain sectors and regions. Non-core demand fell in every region except the South Atlantic where demand was up in all sectors. The Gulf of Mexico has the greatest gas demand of all North American regions, but saw huge declines in non-core demands over 22. The West experienced large declines in non-core section as well as the Canadian regions. This decline in non-core demand was largely a consequence of the declining industrial demand which decreased due to high gas prices. For example, in Canada, the industrial gas sales accounted for 34% in 22, 4% down from the 38% registered in Natural Gas Supply The major natural gas producing basins in North America are as follows: - Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) and Scotian Shelf - in Canada - Rockies, MidContinent, Gulf in US. There are also other smaller producing basins in US such as those in California and Appalachians. Large reserves not exploited yet have been discovered in Alaska North Slope and in Mackenzie Delta. In 22 supply was lower in all major regions across Canada and the US. The largest supply reduction occurred on the US Gulf Coast which incurred a 5% decrease in production compared to 21. In other US regions production remained approximately constant. In Western Canadian Basin, the production fell by 1.1 % in 22. In the past three years production remained fairly flat despite 2,188 wells being drilled over the period. The main supply regions in North America are shown in Map

7 - 7 -

8 The values of North American supply are summarized in the following table: 22 (Bcf) 21 (Bcf) Gulf Onshore 6,935 6,988 Gulf Offshore 4,336 4,812 Total Gulf 11,271 11,8 US Midcontinent 1,981 1,998 US Rockies 3,729 3,847 Other US 2,66 2,31 Total US Production 19,47 19,676 Western Canada 5,927 5,994 Scotian Shelf Total Canada Production 6,112 6,174 Total N.A. Production 25,159 2,697 US Net LNG Imports US Net Mexican Imports US Supplementals 8 86 Total N.A. Supply 25,143 25,978 Sources: EIA May 23, NGM, StatsCan, NRCan estimates. Change (Bcf) Change (%) -.8% -9.9% -4.5% -.9% -3.1% 1.7% -3.2% -1.1% 2.8% -1.% -2.7% -4.1% -1.8% -7.% -3.2% Total North American production decreased 2.7% in 22. US production decreased by 629 Bcf or 3.2% while Canadian production decreased by 62 Bcf or 1%. Net LNG imports declined slightly while US gas exports to Mexico increased significantly. US coalbed methane (CBM) production accounts for about 8% of total US natural gas production and more than 35% of Rockies (Wyoming, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico) gas production. Since 1997, US CBM production has grown at an average annual rate of 8% to reach 1,614 Bcf in 22. Canadian CBM in Alberta is still in the exploration phase with a production level between 15 and 25 MMcf per day. Rapid production growth (mainly due to CBM boom) in the Rockies correlated to limited local demand and export pipeline capacity resulted in a surplus of supplies that caused the prices to fall in the region well below those of NYMEX. Several projects are expected to increase pipeline capacity out of the Rockies region between 24 and 27. Despite its 2.8 % increase in 22, the Sable Offshore Energy Project (SOEP) shows a decline in production with 15% less in the first 7 months in 23 than in the same period of 22. Approximately 75 % of - 8 -

9 the Sable production is exported to the US via St. Stephen, New Brunswick, while the remaining 25% is consumed in Atlantic Canadian markets. 3. Natural Gas Resources and Reserves in North America The locations and scale of cumulative natural gas production, reserves, discovered resources and undiscovered resources in North America are shown in the Map

10 Based on estimates from the NEB, Canada s total natural gas resource base including cumulative production and undiscovered resources is 596 Tcf. These estimates include 8 Tcf of undiscovered CBM resources in WCSB accounting for more than 2% of the NEB s total undiscovered resource estimate. For US, according to MMS and USGS, the total natural gas resource is 2,63 Tcf. The total natural gas resource base (proved reserves, discovered resources and undiscovered resources) for Canada and US is presented in the following table: (Tcf) Alberta British Columbia Saskatchewan Mainland Territories Unconventional Resources Total Western Canada Ontario Nova Scotia Total Eastern Canada Grand Banks and Labrador Mackenzie/Beaufort Arctic Islands Other Frontier Total Frontier Total Canada US Onshore and State Offshore US Federal Offshore Unconventional Resources Total US Total NA Sources: NEB, USGS, MMS Proved Reserves (Jan. 1.2) Discovered Resources Undiscovered Resources ,41 1,42 Total Remaining Resources ,614 2,89 Based on these estimates the US has about 85 years supply of natural gas at 22 levels of domestic production while Canada has 77 years supply considering the same year as for production level. Reserves data changes every year as a result of exploration. Reserves trends are - 1 -

11 a powerful indicator of future production. In the past, reserves additions greater than production have signaled future increases in production. As reserve additions in recent years tended to equal production levels, forecasts indicate a flat supply for the medium-term. 4. Natural Gas Trade on the North American Market. The price of natural gas paid by different segments of end users comprises the gas commodity, transportation and distribution charges and depends on the volume of gas purchased. The transportation cost, which is the cost of moving gas by pipeline to a utility or distribution company, is determined by regulation. In Canada international and interprovincial pipeline transportation is regulated by NEB while FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) regulates interstate and international pipeline transportation in the US. Since 1985, the Canadian and US gas markets have increasingly evolved into an integrated North American market. The gas can be supplied from many sources and delivered to different markets through an extensive and developing North American pipeline grid. The gas trading is based on contracts between the seller and purchaser. The contracts can be on long term or on short term. Prices are referenced to specific locations where natural gas is physically sold and purchased. The sale of gas in the short term (less than 3 days) usually uses the prices from the local market. In the case of long term contracts the price may be established using a monthly reference price at a trading hub different from the contractual location. With the increased integration of markets, regional supply and demand forces are felt throughout the North American market. Natural gas sellers would prefer to sell their gas in a location where prices are higher in order to maximize their returns. On the other hand gas moves between locations that present a sufficient price differential to cover the cost of operating the connecting pipeline. When the pipeline capacity between two particular locations is fully

12 utilized, additional gas flow cannot be sent. Prices in a particular region can disconnect from those in the integrated market. If the prices between locations are frequently disconnected and the price differentials are significant for longer periods, additional transportation capacity is needed. Natural gas can be traded at many locations in North America as shown in the Map 4. These are called pricing points

13 Over time the pricing points may evolve into trading hubs characterized by multiple pipeline interconnections that allow physical exchanges where gas can be easily bought or sold. Trading hubs have also access to natural gas storage facilities which enhance the trading options. Pricing points are not as liquid as the trading hubs because in general they lack storage facilities and have fewer pipeline interconnections. The two hubs on which prices are based in North America are the AECO-C in Alberta and the Henry Hub in Louisiana located near the major gas producing and consuming region of Gulf of Mexico. The gas sold under the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) uses Henry Hub as delivery point. The prices at other hubs will usually be referenced as differential from AECO or the Henry Hub (NYMEX). AECO is located near Suffield, west of the Alberta/Saskatchewan border and is operated by EnCana and uses its storage facility. From the perspective of Canadian natural gas trading, the only trading hub outside AECO is Dawn in Southwest Ontario. It has been connected to pipelines from the United States and has storage facilities developed by Union Gas. With the construction of the Vector Pipeline system, Dawn has become a significant trading point for Ontario and Quebec. Other trading points that involve Canadian suppliers or consumers are Dracut, Massachusets which is the interconnection point between the Maritimes and Northeast Pipeline and the Tennessee Gas Pipeline systems and Sumas located at the British Columbia/Washington border where the Westcoast Energy Inc. system interconnects with the Northwest Pipeline system. The overall North American gas trading is being supported by an extensive pipeline grid that links the main natural gas producing areas with the large consumer regions. The main gas pipelines in North America are shown in the Map

14 Map 5: Gas Pipelines Map of gas pipelines in North America 5. Major Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines and Export Capacity The major Canadian pipeline systems are shown in the Map 6. The Canadian pipeline grid allows the transportation of natural gas from the main producing areas to consumers in all provinces and also allows the producers to export part of their extracted gas into the U.S. market. In Canada, the biggest consumer is the province of Ontario with a demand of 1,31 Bcf in 22. Alberta is the second largest consumer in Canada with 825 Bcf demand level followed by British Columbia (259 Bcf), Quebec (234 Bcf) and Saskatchewan (224 Bcf). Manitoba s level of

15 demand was 91Bcf in 22 and the Maritimes region used approx. 47 Bcf (25% of the Scotian Shelf production. Map 6 The exported Canadian gas goes mainly to the US Midwest (Monchy, Elmore and Emerson export points), West (Huntington and Kingsgate) and Northeast (Niagara Falls, Iroquis, East Hereford and St.Stephen)

16 The following table shows the Canadian domestic demand and gas exports in 22 in comparison with the previous year. Domestic Demand and Canadian Exports 22 (Bcf) Gross Exports to US West Gross Exports to US Midwest Gross Exports to US Northeast Total Gross Exports Imports from US Net Exports Western Canada Demand Eastern Canada Demand Total Canadian Demand Net Exports Canadian Demand Total Canadian Gas Sold 1,36 1, , ,483 1,352 1,356 2,78 3,483 2,78 6, (Bcf) 1,14 1, , ,5 1,451 1,245 2,697 3,5 2,697 6,196 Sources: EIA May 23, NGM, StatsCan, NRCan estimates. Change (Bcf) Change (%) -6% 3% 4% 1% 2% % -7% 9% % % % % Canadian domestic demand and net exports remained relatively flat in 22. The 7% decrease in the West was balanced by the 9% increase in the East. The exports to US West decreased by 6% while they increased in Midwest (3%) and Northeast (4%). Alliance Pipeline accounted for 32% of the gas exported to US Midwest while the Maritimes and Northeast Pipeline accounted for 14% of all exports to the US northeastern region in 22. Despite the economic slow down in and the 4.9% drop in overall gas consumption in 21, 3,571 miles of pipeline and 12.8 billion cubic feet per day pipeline capacity were added to the US national pipeline network during 22. Since the early 199s, the annual level of gas pipeline capacity has grown steadily in US. The major natural gas transportation routes and selected key locations in the United States are showed in the Map

17 Map 7: Major Natural Gas Transportation Routes and Capacity Levels at selected Key Locations, Price Evolution In 22, the AECO price averaged CDN$ 3.83/GJ with a low of $ 2.58 and a high of $ 5.29, 35% lower than in 21. International border export prices and Canadian domestic prices closely tracked the NYMEX price in 22. In 22, natural gas prices in the export markets averaged US $ 3.5/MMBtu a decrease of 29% over 21. NYMEX average price in 22 was US $ 3.22 a 25% decrease from US $ 4.27 in 21. In 23 (Jan-May), prices have increased by an average of 5% approximately in all regions of North America. In Canada, the average increase in 23 over 22 is 15% (November and December not included)

18 III. Future Forecasts 1. Future Demand According to studies made by EIA and various consultants the US gas demand will reach 28 Tcf by 215. This represents an average increase of about 1.8% per year. For Canada, different studies conducted by NEB and TCPL and other consulting groups show a demand of 4 Tcf by 215 level that can be reached with an average increase of 2.7% per year from current demand levels. Adding up the average forecasts of US and Canadian gas demand, the quantity demanded in 215 amounts 32 Tcf. This means that North America will need an additional 9.2 Tcf of annual gas supply by 215. The biggest part of this increase comes from industrial and power generations sectors. 2. Supply levels, Prices, Pipeline developments. The same studies indicate a future level of 22.1 Tcf of gas produced in US in 215, level that can be reached by an average annual increase of 1.3%. This is less than the forecasted demand showing that US will remain a net importer of gas over the period. There are considerable differences in opinion about US gas production. Some forecasts include the northern gas in this prediction, others don t. For Canada the average of the forecasts shows Canadian production reaching 7.4 Tcf by 215. This implies an annual increase of 1.5%. Canada will export much of this gas in the US. Due to concerns regarding short-term natural gas supply, LNG is being considered as a viable option to domestic supplies. The department of Energy in US reported 25 planned or proposed terminals as of 23. Canadian companies like Irving Oil, Access Northeast Energy and

19 TransCanada have plans to build LNG projects in Canada and the US. Forecasts show LNG imports to US reaching more than 2 Tcf by 215. The increased forecasted supply for Canadian gas takes in consideration an increase of Scotian Shelf production at about.7 Tf by 215. Also the MacKenzie Delta supplies are taken in consideration beginning with 29. The level of production is expected to reach.62 Tcf in 215. Other possible sources of production include northern gas and coalbed methane. With no pipeline application to date many forecasts do not include Alaska s North Slope gas earlier than 21. The CBM production is expected to increase in Alberta and US Rockies in the coming years. Averaging the different forecasts for Canadian and US gas supply results in a quantity of 29.5Tcf for 21 and about 32 Tcf for 215. Gas prices are expected to stay approximately stable for the with US prices averaging between US $ $4.6/MMBtu. For the same period the Canadian prices are expected to average about CDN $ 5/GJ with a predicted level of CDN $ 4.94/GJ in 21 and $5.33/GJ in 215. The Canadian export will remain relatively flat over the forecast period reaching 3.72 Tcf by 21 then falling to 3.56 Tcf by 215. In compliance to the forecasted supply, the future pipeline developments consider the pipeline to link the Mackenzie Delta reserves to the Alberta TransCanada system. There is no application to date for a pipeline to link the Alaskan North Slope to the existing pipeline network. In the East the Maritimes and Northeast Pipeline has all the formal applications filed with regulators for an expansion of 4 MMcf/d to handle volumes from Encana s Deep Panuke project which has been temporarily put on hold. In US, the main developments related to the new sources of supply consist in increasing the pipeline capacity in the Rockies area as a result of expanding CBM gas production

20 References: 1. National Energy Board: Canada s Energy Future Scenarios for Supply and Demand to edition. 2. National Energy Board: Canadian Natural Gas Market Dynamics and Pricing: An Update October 22 edition. 3. PriceWaterhouseCoopers: 23 Canadian Energy Survey Survey of 22 Results. 4. Natural Resources Canada- Energy Sector- Natural Gas Division: Canadian Natural Gas Review of 22 $ Outlook to 215 pdf report. November downloaded on Feb.14 th U.S.A. - Energy Information Administration website. Annual Energy Outlok 24 with Projections to 225. html - Feb.14 th U.S.A. - Energy Information Administration website. Expansion and Change on the U.S. Natural Gas Pipeline Network 22, by James Tobin Feb.14 th National Energy Board website. - Feb.14 th

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