I will be talking today about the importance of coordinated global traffic movement and air traffic flow management to address delays today and avoid

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2 I will be talking today about the importance of coordinated global traffic movement and air traffic flow management to address delays today and avoid gridlock in the skies in the future. Content: Traffic prediction for 2020 Examples of regional growth Consequences of no action Airline operation Connectivity and predictability Air Traffic Flow Management New regional initiatives IATA future focus 2

3 First let us have look at what we may be facing from a traffic movement perspective. This slide shows ACTUAL passenger flights from which is then extrapolated to Most significant is Asia (including China) where traffic is expected to increase by about 50% from 2012 to

4 Using the same data calculation methodology for South America, Middle east and Africa. Percentage increase from 2012 to 2020: South America - 40% Middle East - 40% Africa 11% This is good for business but we need to consider how we will manage the traffic safely and efficiently to avoid it deteriorating to gridlock. Using one example we can analyze the impact of this increase in traffic if we do nothing. 4

5 This slide shows the movement of traffic predicted in 2020 in China. This IATA simulation is based on data from the Civil Aviation Administration of China. The simulation is based on the today s airspace configuration and shows domestic and international traffic at the five major airports: Beijing Shanghai Pudong Shanghai Hongqiao Guanzhou, Shenzhen The simulated traffic movement is at the top of the slide (in green dots) and the bottom graph shows the potential delays in hours at the major airports. The green line in the bottom graph indicates the approximate delays that we have today and the red line shows the potential delays in You will see that delays may get close to two hours if nothing is done. Obviously this is a concern. 5

6 On 1 November 2012 the authorities introduced Multi-Airports Collaborative Departure Clearance System at Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. Each system assesses the departures of flights from its own airport and then coordinates with other airports to calculate traffic throughput between the airports. When applicable flow constraints are imposed number of flights per hour at handoff fixes on the main routes (A461, A593, A599). This provides airlines the calculated take off time 90 minutes prior to departure and allows accurate planning. The Civil Aviation Administration of China and the Air Traffic Management Bureau (China) have plans to implement a nation wide air traffic flow management to accommodate the rapid traffic growth. IATA is very pleased to be working closely with the authorities in China on this very important initiative. 6

7 Singapore, Hong Kong and Thailand have an agreement for coordinated Airport Collaborative Decision Making (A-CDM) between airport locations. This is primarily linked to surface management - providing departure information to airlines - but the plan is to expand into the airspace structure. An interesting aspect of the work is that there are cost effective solutions that do not require excessive infrastructure. For example information provided on a common (virtual) internet site easily assessable for all stakeholders potentially avoiding the costs and political issues associated with the establishment of costly centers. Plan is to expand and we would like to see Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam involved. 7

8 We have spent a few minutes looking at Asia/North Asia but we must remember that airline operations are global. To emphasize this the next few slides show the operation of one Cathay Pacific B777 in one week. The journey starts with a trip between Hong Kong Taipei leg return (Sat 10/11 Nov). 8

9 Then the aircraft goes from Jakarta and back (11/12 Nov). 9

10 Then it goes to Beijing return (12/13 Nov). 10

11 This is followed by a trans-pacific flight to Los Angeles and back to Hong Kong (13/14 Nov). 11

12 Then New York and back to Hong Kong (15/16 Nov). 12

13 And finally the aircraft completes its journey is London, culminating a week in the life of the flight (17 Nov). 13

14 That was only one Cathay aircraft. Imagine all their 113 aircraft operating on their global schedule (Orange). Add to that the schedules of Singapore Airlines (Green) and you can see the global reach and connectivity occurring day to day. 14

15 Adding Emirates (blue) 15

16 Adding British Airways (dark blue) 16

17 Finally, adding United Airlines (light blue) to depict the global reach and connectivity occurring day to day. So for airlines, effective traffic coordinated not only between airports, but between states, sub-regions, regions, and ultimately globally is critically importance for efficiency, PREDICTABILITY and planning. A lack of predictability (i.e. the ATC system not performing as advertised) can create huge cost and disruption. This is where Air traffic Flow Management comes in. Air Traffic Flow management Strategic and tactical management of air traffic with the objective of smoothing and efficiently managing flows through predefined management techniques. 17

18 There are new initiatives (as discussed) and established Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) operations. Hopefully we will see an Air Traffic Flow Management zone for Asia in the next three to five years. Initiatives are in place in the Middle East (flow management and coordination). The Network Manager area (green) covers Europe and helps manage traffic in that region. Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Control System Command Center (red). The blue area indicates collaboration between the Network Manager, Canada and the Federal Aviation Administration on the North Atlantic traffic flows. We need more coordination and communication between centers and regions. We need to think globally. 18

19 We have the guidance material to do this: the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Collaborative air traffic flow management manual. Final draft - 2 volumes one on Air Traffic Flow Management and one on Collaborative Decision Making Collaborative Decision Making: All stakeholders participate in the decisions that affect them. Global benefits: Efficiency Predictability Coordinated decisions Must be cost and effective could be virtual? Also, we must ensure that we are managing traffic in an efficient system. It is counter productive to design a flow management around inefficient airspace. 19

20 This slide presents the military airspace in the Middle East region depicted in white. Flexible use of airspace - a very simple and basic implementation has minimal or no cost to key stakeholders. 20

21 This slide shows military airspace in the European region depicted in lavender and yellow. The significant amount of airspace designated as military stresses the importance of effective coordination between civil and military authorities. Europe works well and this must be the case in other areas. 21

22 There are guiding principles and strategies ICAO Circular - Civil/Military Cooperation in Air Traffic Management Key points: All airspace managed flexibly Optimum operational solutions Military airspace managed to minimize the impact on civil operations 22

23 The expected increase in traffic around the world will be significant. We need regional and global collaboration to manage it properly. IATA is very supportive on new initiatives but they need to be cost effective solutions. Efficiency, predictability and planning are key components to be considered. Passenger experience will be enhanced and we will have increased aircraft and infrastructure utilization. 23

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