Nagyfeszültségü gàzszigetelt berendezések (GIS) élettartam költségeinek szàmitàsa HV GIS - Life cycle cost calculations

Transcription

1 Nagyfeszültségü gàzszigetelt berendezések (GIS) élettartam költségeinek szàmitàsa HV GIS - Life cycle cost calculations Endre MIKES AREVA T&D Senior Expert, Müszaki Tanàcsos MEE 57. Vàndorgyülés, Siofok, 2010 Szept. 16

2 LCC Calculations LCC calculations cover not only purchasing costs of S/S s but all costs during the whole life cycle Investment cost, land costs Operation costs (incl. maintenance, running cost and failure) Renewal, disposal cost databases, statistics are needed for components, substations, general costs calculation of cost for many different cases baywise, substationswise, yearwise or periods 2 Endre Mikes 2

3 GIS Example - F35 S/S Hinterthal Switz. Single busbar substation: 3 Endre Mikes 3

4 LCC Calculations AL3C Architecture and basics of AL3C AL3C uses an easy to use graphical user interface AL3C can calculate the following cost Investment cost Operation cost (incl. maintenance, running cost and failure) Disposal cost AL3C uses two databases a component and substation database AL3C calculates the cost baywise with variables 4 Endre Mikes 4

5 AL3C: Implemented LCC scheme Implemented life cycle cost scheme Life Cycle Investment (Acquisition ) Operation Disposal (Ownership ) Running Scheduled Unscheduled Failure Component Replacement Penalty Outage Additional Input Data (IEC ) 5 Endre Mikes 5

6 AL3C: GUI and Input Component database 6 Endre Mikes 6

7 AL3C: GUI and Input Substation database 7 Endre Mikes 7

8 AL3C: GUI and Input Substation Layout transformer bay line bay transformer bay line bay 8 Endre Mikes 8

9 AL3C: Calculation Basis Life Cycle Investment Land Foundation + Building Substation Layout Packing + Shipment Erection + Commissioning Secondary Equipment + Monitoring Studies + Management Spare Parts Training of Personnel Special Tools + Test Equipment Investment (Acquisition ) Running Scheduled of each component (CB, CT, VT, ES etc) Operation Unscheduled Disposal (Ownership ) Failure 9 Endre Mikes 9

10 AL3C: Calculation Basis Life Cycle Operation Investment (Acquisition ) Running Scheduled Operation Unscheduled Disposal (Ownership ) Failure Energy Consumption of the Components Employee Storage of Spare Parts Scheduled incl. Planning and Financial Loss due to undelivered Power 10 Endre Mikes 10

11 AL3C: Calculation Basis Life Cycle Failure Investment (Acquisition ) Running Scheduled Operation Unscheduled Disposal (Ownership ) Failure Component Replacement in case of Failure End of Series Production Rise of the Component and Replacement after some Years Penalty + additional Failure Financial Loss due to undelivered Energy in case of a Failure 11 Endre Mikes 11

12 AL3C: Calculation Basis Life Cycle Failure Probabilities Investment (Acquisition ) Operation Disposal (Ownership ) Running Scheduled Unscheduled Failure failure rate λ (1) design, production, installation: first Weibull-distribution ageing: second Weibull-distribution time (years) maintenance: third Weibull-distribution 12 Endre Mikes 12

13 AL3C: Calculation Basis Life Cycle Failure Probability of GIS Investment (Acquisition ) Operation Disposal (Ownership ) Running Scheduled Unscheduled Failure Major failures by time in service kv-245 kv SEH 14 (13.3%) External influence 23 (21.2%) Human error 2 ( 1.8%) Transport damage 12 (10.6%) Design fault 12 (10.6%) Manufacturing fault 9 ( 8.8%) Material fault 14 (13.3%) Voltage transformer 21 (20.4%) Insulation defect Endre Mikes 13

14 AL3C: Calculation Basis Life Cycle Failure Probability for GIS Investment (Acquisition ) Operation Disposal (Ownership ) Running Scheduled Unscheduled Failure 1000 produced GIS bays until kv-245 kv SEH Endre Mikes 14

15 AL3C: Calculation Basis Life Cycle Failure Probability of GIS Investment (Acquisition ) Running Scheduled Operation Unscheduled Disposal (Ownership ) Failure Implemented exponential failure distribution failure rate λ (1) AL3C uses a constant failure rate because the Weibull-distributions are not seen for GIS λ time (years) f(t): failure probability density function R(t): reliability distribution F(t): failure distribution λ: failure rate 15 Endre Mikes 15

16 AL3C: Calculation Basis Life Cycle Failure Probability B65 Investment (Acquisition ) Running Scheduled Operation Unscheduled Disposal (Ownership ) Failure B65 GIS with Cigré B GIS with internal failure statistic statistic failure rates (2 failures in 2469 bay years) 16 Endre Mikes 16

17 AL3C: Calculation Basis Life Cycle Failure Probability Calculation Investment (Acquisition ) Running Scheduled Operation Unscheduled Disposal (Ownership ) Failure parallel circuit serial circuit F S (t): failure distribution of the system F x (t): failure distribution of the component x R S (t): reliability distribution of the system R x (t): reliability distribution of the component x Endre Mikes 17 17

18 AL3C: Calculation Basis Life Cycle Disposal Investment (Acquisition ) Running Scheduled Operation Unscheduled Disposal (Ownership ) Failure Disassembly Recycling 18 Endre Mikes 18

19 AL3C: Output Output 19 Endre Mikes 19

20 AL3C: Output Output Single Busbar Configuration Double Busbar Configuration 20 Endre Mikes 20

21 Application of FK3-X mechanisms within AREVA T&D T155-2 (550kV) GL318 (800kV) GL310 (100kV) DT2-550 (550kV) F35-4 (145kV) FKG1 (27.5kV) 21 Endre Mikes 21

22 kv GIS from SEH unit Major failure statistic for December 2007 Business-year Number of CB-bays in service * ' No. of CB-bay-years in service* '498 44'021 47'000 Major failures in businessyear Cumulated no of major failures Major failure frequency (Failures/100 bay-years) Meantime between major failures MtbF (years for one bay) *) Number of bays and bay years based on handover date to customer (without load break switch bays) 22 Endre Mikes 22

23 kv GIS from BHT unit 23 Endre Mikes 23

24 GIS F35 Compact 145 kv GIS S/S 24 Endre Mikes 24

25 S/S Study Example (1) Example AIS vs. GIS ADP Orly 225 kv 2400 m2 vs. 750 m2 Length and height of bay 84 & 16 m vs. 21 & 8 m only 25 Endre Mikes 25

26 S/S Study Example (2) Example AIS vs. GIS ADP Orly 225 kv The Task: Optimization of initial investments Reduction of energy costs Minimization of substation footprints Compliance with the airport safety rules To not disturb the radio navigation equipment of aircraft The Results: The substation will be realized in two steps: Step 1 involves a 40 MVA transformer connected to a GIS circuit breaker bay. Step 2 involves a second 40 MVA transformer to be installed and connected to the GIS with a circuit breaker bay and a busbar element. PBT: pay back time ADP has calculated the pay back time for both steps of realization. The following equation was taken into account: PBT = Ac( t) + Op( t) Eg( t) Ac(t): Acquisition cost (design, building, commissioning) Op(t): Operation cost (maintenance, replacement) Eg(t): Energy gain (energy transit, profit on resale) The calculation shows that the substation realized with only one transformer (only step 1) will be paid back in about 8 years. If the second transformer and the corresponding switchgear is also realized the cost will be paid back in about 11 years 26 Endre Mikes 26

27 AL3C: Demonstration Life Demonstration of AL3C Comparison between an AIS and a GIS substation with the same layout Comparison between a B65 GIS with Areva internal failure data and the same substation with the Cigré brochure 150 1) failure rates 1) Cigré brochure 150, REPORT ON THE SECOND INTERNATIONAL SURVEY ON HIGH VOLTAGE GAS INSULATED SUBSTATIONS (GIS) SERVICE EXPERIENCE, Working Group 23.02, February Endre Mikes 27

28 GIS példàk a megfelelö alàllomàsi technologiàt akkor, ha.. Tokozott GIS igy mindenre, mindenhol és mindig van megoldàs! 28 Endre Mikes 28

29 Tokozott GIS 31 éve a föld alatt, Zürich Sihlfeld S/S, 150/170 kv, 7+1 mezö, 3x40 MVA trafo Kérdések? Köszönöm szives figyelmüket! endre.mikes@areva-td.com 29 Endre Mikes 29