German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA) at the German Geological Survey (BGR)
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1 German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA) at the German Geological Survey (BGR) BGS s Global Mineral Statistics Centenary Symposium London, 30th April 2014 The Geological Society of London German Mineral Resources Agency Mineral statistics and advice to industry Peter Buchholz Head of the German Mineral Resources Agency at the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Berlin, Germany 1
2 Raw material price cycles and global economic development CRB Metals Sub-Index st oil crisis 2nd oil crisis Asia crisis Inde ex value collaps of the UdSSR China factor CRB Financial market crisis? demand nominal real, basis: year 2000 Reuters CRB-Metals-Subindex copper-, steel-, lead-scrap, zinc, tin Source: BGR database, CRB, World Bank 2
3 Demand of metals in industrialised countries as a share of global demand Considered metals: Aluminium, steel, copper, zinc and tin % Großbritannien University of Bonn, M. Stürmer, contracted by DERA,
4 Demand of metals in industrialised countries as a share of global demand Considered metals: Aluminium, steel, copper, zinc and tin % Großbritannien Deutschland University of Bonn, M. Stürmer, contracted by DERA,
5 Demand of metals in industrialised countries as a share of global demand Considered metals: Aluminium, steel, copper, zinc and tin % 60 Großbritannien USA Deutschland University of Bonn, M. Stürmer, contracted by DERA,
6 Demand of metals in industrialised countries as a share of global demand Considered metals: Aluminium, steel, copper, zinc and tin % 60 Großbritannien USA Deutschland Japan Südkorea University of Bonn, M. Stürmer, contracted by DERA,
7 Demand of metals in emeging countries as a share of global demand Considered metals: Aluminium, steel, copper, zinc and tin % Brasilien China Indien Russland University of Bonn, M. Stürmer, contracted by DERA,
8 Influence of future technologies on future raw materials demand Example Hybrid-/Electro vehicle Car electronics: Gold, Silver, Germanium, Indium Motor: Copper, Aluminium, Magnesium, Lead, Zinc, Nickel, Iron Permanent magnets in electro motors: Neodymium, Dysprosium, Copper, Iron Traction battery NiMH battery: Nickel, Lanthan, Neodymium Cobalt Li-Ion battery: Lithium, Cobalt, Nickel/Manganese, Copper 8
9 German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA) at the German Geological Survey (BGR) Situation in Germany 9
10 Resource situation in Germany National production, recycling and imports 9% 2012: 150 Bn Imports 2011: 138 Bn Imports 10 16% Total demand 2010 ca. 138 bn. 9% 1%3% 27% 22% 2010: 110 Bn Imports ca. 10 Bn Recycling ca. 18 Bn National prod. 1% Crude oil Gas 6% Coal <1 % Other energy resources 3% 3% Non-ferrous metals Metal working companies: companies 3,4 Mio. jobs Iron and steel Ferroalloys Other metals Precious metals Non-metals National production* Recycling * *DERA/BGR estimate
11 German mineral imports
12 12 Import dependence of Germany [%]
13 German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA) at the German Geological Survey (BGR) Why DERA? 13
14 Deutsche Rohstoffagentur in der BGR Gründung am 4. Oktober 2010 in Hannover German Mineral Resources Agency, DERA Founded 10/2010 in Hannover Opening of DERA in Berlin 28. August 2012 DERA at BGR office in Berlin-Spandau Wilhelmstraße
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16 German Mineral Resources Agency, DERA Sustainable and Secure Supply of Mineral Resources for Germany Targets Improve market transparency in the mineral resources sector by providing minerals information and analysis and advise companies about price and supply risks Professional backing of measures taken by the German government and companies to secure raw materials supply Services (A) Raw Materials Information and Analyses 1. Raw Material Information System 2. Risk Assessment (B) Contributions for a Sustainable and Secure Raw Materials Supply 3. Raw Material Potentials 4. Diversifying Supply Development of strategies for security of supply, network building, Raw Material Dialogues, Industry Workshops, conferences, organization of the German Raw Materials Efficiency Award
17 German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA) at the German Geological Survey (BGR) Services provided by DERA Minerals information and analyses 17
18 DERA early warning indicators Methodology 1. First Screening of ca. 40 raw materials 2. Analysis of critical raw materials 3. Development of mitigation strategies Identification of critical raw materials Detailed evaluation of price and supply risks Recommendations for risk mitigation 18
19 Oil and gas, price and supply risk: Security aspects (strategic Elipse in the Near East) 19
20 Antimony, price and supply risk: Export ban on ores and concentrates in China, export quota for antimony prod. high country concentration of mine production (China effect, 74 %) 20
21 Beryllium, price and supply risk: high company concentration of mine production (USA, 90 %) 21
22 D = Dysprosium, price and supply risk: Export quotas/trade restrictions in China high country concentration of mine production (China effect SE ~90 %) 22
23 Iron ore, price and supply risk: freight capacities (shortage during economic growth between ) high company concentration in iron ore trade (~ 75 %) small supply elasticity for special ore qualities 23
24 Fluorspar, price and supply risk: rare qualities (acid grade) high country concentration of mine production (China effect, 50 %) 24
25 Gallium, Germanium, Indium, price and supply risk: mined as a byproduct (small supply elasticity) high country concentration of mine and refinery production 25
26 Platin, Palladium, price and supply risk: increased country risk RSA / labour strikes+ turbulences (mine prod. Pt = 74 %) strategic commodity in Russia (mine production Pd = 49 %) 26
27 Tantal, price and supply risk: environmental risk due to radioactivity of concentrates (tantalum) social risks, tantalum/tin/tungsten/gold: DR Congo; Dodd Frank Act (USA) 27
28 Assessment of price and supply risks Methodology: Global concentration of supply (Herfindahl-Hirschman-Index, HHI) Rare Earths: Global concentration of mine production Russia 2010: 1,495 t SEO USA 2010: 1,483 t SEO from dumps 97 % of global production HHI = 9,520 India 2009: 2009: 35 t SEO Brazil 2010: 1,043 t Monazite 28 China 2010: 118,900 t SEO
29 Assessment of price and supply risks Methodology: Weighted country risk (GLR) by World Governance Indicators World Bank Group Governance Indicators (WGI) -2.5 to to to to to to to to to 2.0 World Governance Indicators by World Bank: - Control of Corruption - Voice and Accountability - Political Stability and Absence of Violence - Government Effectiveness - Regulatory Quality - Rule of Law World Bank Group, Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI). 29
30 DERA study on critical raw materials 1,5 Metals (ore) Metals (refined) Industrial minerals high Weighted country risk of prod duction, world bank data 1,0 0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0 Au Ag Sn V Co Sn Fluorit Graphit Phosphat Baryt Magnesit Cr Ni FeCr Pd Rohstahl Granat Zn Mn Bentonit Zn Al Pb Cd Pb Talk Si Ni Fe Co In Bx Mo Cu Glimmer Cu Kali Kaolin Rutil Zr Li Ti Seltene Erden Mg Sb W Bi Pt Nb 1,5 low medium high Herfindahl-Hirschman-Index of production 2009/2010 (country concentration ) 30
31 DERA study on critical raw materials DERA criticality list 2012 HHI GLR % Rare Earths Nigeria Niobium ,10 Kanada 99,6 % Antimony , ,47 USA Russische Föderation Tadschikistan Australien Brasilien 93,7 % China 99,9 % China High Risk Moderate Risk Low Risk Tungsten ,41 Russische Föderation Kanada China 92,8 % Platinum ,09 Russische Föderation 94,3 % Simbabwe Mongolei Südafrika Fluorite ,36 Mexiko 78,0 % Zircon ,62 China Südafrika Australien China 84,6 % Peru Tin ,45 Indonesien 81,7 % China %
32 DERA early warning indicators Methodology 1. First Screening of ca. 40 raw materials 2. Analysis of critical raw materials Identification of critical raw materials Detailed evaluation of price and supply risks 32
33 Risk assessment Defining benchmarks t Zn+Pb+Ag] Specific exploration expenditures [US$ / tonne extracted Zn+Pb+Ag] Share of lead, silver, zinc ore exploration budgets of total expenditures for minerals (without crude oil) [%] Buchholz et al., 2012 [%] [US$ / Average US$/t US$/tonne Zn 33
34 Future supply and demand Supply scenario 1 Proposed annual growth of supply of antimony to 2016: 1,8 %; Supply 2016 = t Proposed annual growth of demand of antimony to 2016: 3,3 %; Demand 2016 = t [1.000 t] Angebotsszenario ,3 % 2,4 % 1,5 % geplante zusätzliche Bergwerksförderung bis 2016 Bergwerksförderung bis 2011 Antimonverbrauch bis 2011 (Annahme) Antimonverbrauch Wachstumsrate 3,3 % Antimonverbrauch Wachstumsrate 2,4 % Antimonverbrauch Wachstumsrate 1,5 % Deficit: ca t (-6,8 %) Deficit after ROSKILL (2012) in 2016 between t and t antimony.
35 DERA Raw Materials Information Risk Evaluation for Antimony 35
36 DERA Minerals Information and Analyses Minerals Information 1-22 DERA Information Service (digital archive and literature search, testing phase) Raw Material Prices DERA Information System (web based, under construction) 36
37 DERA early warning indicators Methodology 1. First Screening of ca. 40 raw materials 2. Analysis of critical raw materials 3. Development of mitigation strategies Identification of critical raw materials Detailed evaluation of price and supply risks Recommendations for risk mitigation 37
38 DERA Industry workshops specialised on critical raw materials Industry workshops and studies Rare earths (continuously) Germanium (2012/2014) Zircon ( ) Copper (04/2013) Antimony ( ) Tungsten ( ) Tin ( ) Platinum, Zinc (in progress, 2014)
39 Mitigation strategies for the manufacturing industry Manufacturing industry Price escalator clauses Buyers communities Diversification of supply Supply contracts Hedging Stocks Substitution Material efficiency Recycling Cost increase for securing supply Long term supply contracts / off-take agreements Cofinance of mining and processing facilities Vertical integration (exploration and mining) 39
40 National Networks National Networks Examples for strategic partners of DERA 40
41 DERA in the industry media
42 German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA) at the German Geological Survey (BGR) Services provided by DERA Contributions for a sustainable and secure raw materials supply 42
43 3. Raw material potentials, by country, current activities Arctic Russia PDAC 2014 Canada Kazakhstan Mongolia Brazil Peru Chile South Africa Australia AHK-DERA study on investment conditions Canada & Chile, 2011 AHK-DERA-GTAI study on investment conditions, Russland Rohstoffgigant Russland, 2012 AHK-DERA-GTAI study on investment conditions, Australia & South Africa, 2013 DERA/BGR study on mineral potential in Mongolia (2011), Kazakhstan and South Africa, 2013 DERA/BGR studies on the Arctic Region (North America, Greenland, North Scandinavia, Russia) 43
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52 DERA Minerals information and advice for industry and government Evaluation of price and supply risks Supply strategies Several thousand companies attracted Specific advise to companies DERA dialogues DERA criticality list DERA industry workshops Detailed risk assessment, evaluation and recommendations 52
53 German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA) at the German Geological Survey (BGR) Thank you for your attention! Peter Buchholz Head of the German Mineral Resources Agency at the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Berlin, Germany 53 Fotos: Fotalia, BGR
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