European Dairy Industry Model DEMAND FOR DAIRY PRODUCTS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION. Claudio Soregaroli (UNICATTT) Audrey Trévisiol (INRA)

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "European Dairy Industry Model DEMAND FOR DAIRY PRODUCTS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION. Claudio Soregaroli (UNICATTT) Audrey Trévisiol (INRA)"

Transcription

1 European Dary Industry Model DEMAND FOR DAIRY PRODUCTS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION Claudo Soregarol (UNICATTT) Audrey Trévsol (INRA) Workng Paper 02 /2005

2 Demand for dary products n the European Unon Claudo Soregarol, Unverstà Cattolca del Sacro Cuore (UNICATT), Pacenza, Italy Audrey Trevsol, Unversty of Toulouse (INRA), Toulouse, France 89 th EAAE Semnar, Modellng agrcultural polces: state of the art and new challenges. 3th-5 th February 2005, Parma, Italy Ths research s developed under the EDIM (European Dary Industry Model) project supported by the European Commsson wthn the 6 th framework program for Research and Development (http://edm.vtamb.com). Abstract The objectve of ths project s to develop complementary modellng tools able to smulate the mpact of alternatve polcy scenaros for the dary sector over the medum term. Because the analyss of the European Unon (EU) dary polcy n the future strongly depends on the evoluton of the demand for dary products and on the elastcty of demand, we have developed a specfc analyss to study demand for dary products n the European Unon. We focus on two ssues relatve to the European Unon demand for dary products. Frst, we present estmates of the autonomous trend n consumpton of dary products n the ffteen EU member countres. Second, we estmate demand prce and expendtures elastctes for dary products n France and for Italy. Keywords: demand, dary, trend, elastcty, AIDS. 1. Introducton Ths study s part of the European Dary Industry Model (EDIM) project. The objectve of ths project s to develop complementary modellng tools able to smulate the mpact of alternatve polcy scenaros for the dary sector over the medum term. A EU dary sector model has been developed by Bouamra et al. (2002). It ntegrates the whole channel of the EU dary ndustry from the supply of mlk to the demand for fnal commodtes through an ntermedate step of processng mlk nto fnal commodtes. It s an hedonc (mlk characterstcs), spatal equlbrum model whch ntegrates an agrcultural product (cow mlk), 2 mlk components (fat and proten), the dfferent member states (14) and the rest of the world, and 14 fnal dary products. The model ntegrates the EU dary polcy nstruments that nclude mlk producton quota, nterventon prces as for butter and SMP, domestc subsdes for ndustral uses of butter and SMP, a producton subsdy for casen, export subsdes and mport tarff rate quotas for each fnal dary product as well as drect payments. Fnally, GATT mport and export commtments are explctly modelled. Smulaton results from ths model are very senstve to the evoluton of domestc demand. Because, aggregate demand for dary products s rather nelastc, any change n aggregate demand generates large prce effects (gven that supply s fxed due to mlk quota). It s thus

3 very mportant to precsely analyze how demand for the dfferent dary products s lkely to change n the future. The vew behnd ths analyss s that annual consumpton of a product depends on prces and on other factors such as ncome, populaton growth, food habts or health concerns. In the followng study, we focus our attenton on the mpact of these nonprce factors that affect consumpton. Because n the exstng model assumptons on prce elastcty of demand for dary products comes from varous studes, we also estmate a demand system for dary products n France and Italy. We use an AIDS model of mult-stage budgetng allocaton. Usng the results we compute condtonal and uncondtonal elastctes for the dfferent dary products. 2. Methodology 2.1 Estmaton of consumpton trends We estmate the autonomous change n consumpton, that s excludng the changes n consumpton that are due to prce changes. We frst correct the observed data from varatons that are due to prce changes. We thus calculate the theoretcal consumpton of every past year assumng that the prce of the product s the prce observed n a gven year. We use the followng expresson to determne the adjusted consumpton: Pref Pt Ctc = Ct 1 + ε D (1) Pt wth Pt and Pref demand. Ctc the adjusted consumpton for year t, t the prce for the perod t and the reference perod, ε D C the observed consumpton for year t, the prce elastcty of Then, usng these adjusted consumpton data, we estmate a consumpton trend functon that depends on the followng possble explanatory varables: tme, GDP, populaton. Several forms of econometrc or statstcal models are used. The functonal forms used n ths study are the followng: - Lnear regresson. We estmate varous lnear regressons (usng the varables or the logarthm of varables, ncludng or not squares of the ndependent varables). - Lnear regresson usng a Box-Cox transformaton of the explaned varable: C λ ' Ct 1 t = = a x, t λ + ε t (2) - Models n dfferences, that s explanng the dfference of the explaned varable C t by the dfferences of explanatory varables. wth C t = Ct Ct 1 and x t = xt x( t 1) =1,,n C = a x, + b + ε (3) t t t

4 In the second step, we check the valdty of models (valdty of the estmated models s judged by checkng resdual propertes, model sgnfcance and sgnfcance of explanatory varables). To choose among the vald models, we use two selecton crtera: the adjusted R² and the mean squared error of the predctor. 2.1 Estmaton of prce elastcty of demand As t s now very common, we used the Almost Ideal Demand System (Deaton and Muellbauer, 1980). The general specfcaton of the AIDS model s: w n = α + γ log p + β log( Y / P) (4) j= 1 j j where: w s the budget share of the th good, α s the constant coeffcent n the th share equaton, γ j s the slope coeffcent assocated wth the j th good n the th share equaton, p j s the prce of the j th good, Y s the total expendture for goods. P s a general prce ndex. It s defned by: n n n 1 log P = α + α log p + γ j log p log p 0 j 2 = 1 = 1 j= 1 (5) As commonly used n emprcal work, P s replaced by the Stone prce ndex (P*). However, ths ndex does not satsfy the propertes of ndex numbers snce t vares wth changes n the unt of measurement of prces. As Moschn (1995) suggests, ths problem can be solved by usng a corrected Stone ndex defned as n S p log( P ) = w log( ) (6) 0 p = 1 0 where p s a base perod mean value for the th product. Hence, scalng prces by ther means s a practcal soluton to solve the problem of the unts of measurement. We use ths method n the emprcal applcaton. Moreover, the model s taken n dfferences, wth a term for the trend effect: Y w = α + γ j log( p j ) + β log( ) + η log( year) j=1,...,n (7) j P Theoretcal restrctons are mposed: addng-up, homogenety, symmetry, and negatvty. Concavty was locally mposed usng a semflexble approach of the Cholesky decomposton as proposed by Moschn (1998). For France, we estmate an AIDS model for each step of a four-stage budgetng allocaton (see Fgure 1). In the frst stage, consumer chooses between food and non food expenses.

5 Then, among food expenses, he chooses between dary products (except butter), fat products, meat and others. Because butter drectly competes wth other fat products, we desgned a fat product category. Moreover, n order to analyse the mpact of demand for meat on demands for dary product, we specfy a meat aggregate. Then n a thrd stage, we focus on the one hand on the fat system and on the other hand on the dary products. Fnally, n a fourth stage, because there are a lot of dfferent cheeses n France, we focus on the demand for cheese. Fgure 1: Utlty tree used to estmate a demand system for dary products n France For Italy, we use a smplfed utlty tree (Fgure 2). A three-stage budgetng allocaton s defned as cheese consumpton s not detaled as t was for France. However, the general deas for decomposton are smlar except the choce for butter consumpton. Here, butter s assumed to compete drectly wth other dary products. Fgure 2 - Utlty tree used to estmate a demand system for dary products n Italy

6 3. Data 3.1 Data used to compute estmates and projectons of consumpton We use annual data from Eurostat, CNIEL (Centre Natonal Interprofessonnel de l Econome Latère, France) and ZMP (Zentrale Markt- und PresberchtstelleZentrale Marktund Presberchtstelle) for total human consumpton (household consumpton + ndustral consumpton) by country. We used UNEP (Unted Natons Envronnemental Program) data and Eurostat data for Gross Domestc Product (GDP), data from the European Councl for populaton. We use prce data from INSEE (Insttut Natonal de la Statstque et des Etudes Economques, France), ZMP, UNICATT (Unversta Cattolca del Sacro Cuore, Italy), FAL (Bundesforschungsanstalt für Landwrtschaft, Germany ) and UK statstcs. When possble, data cover the perod To compute forecasts of consumpton, we assume varous growth rates of GDP. In ths paper, we present the results of consumpton forecastng for a GDP growth rate equal to 1% per year from 2004 to For populaton, we use forecasts computed by Unted Natons and Eurostat (avalable for each country). 3.2 Data used to compute elastcty estmates. For France, we use data about quantttes and values of dary products purchased n France from INSEE (for the 1 st, 2 nd and the fat products 3 rd stage) and SECODIP (for the dary products 3 rd stage and for the 4 th stage). Data from INSEE are annual data and cover the perod Data from SECODIP are four-week perod and cover the perod For Italy, we use data from Natonal Accountng Data from ISTAT (for the frst and second stages) and retal data from NIELSEN (for the 3 rd stage). Data cover respectvely the perods (annual data) and (by semester). 4. Results 4.1 Estmates of consumpton trends The EU dary model that was developed consders 14 dfferent dary products (butter, flud mlk, soft cheese, hard cheese, sem-hard cheese, processed cheese, blue cheese, fresh cheese, cream, fresh dary products, whole mlk powder, skmmed mlk powder, condensed mlk and casen). When possble, that s when tme seres data are avalable at ths level of dsagregaton, we estmate consumpton trends for each of the 13 fnal consumpton dary products (all except casen). Moreover, because the model represents the dary ndustry n each EU member states, we also estmate trends at the EU member state level. More precsely, we estmate trends for the 4 man dary consumer countres (Germany, France, Italy and the Unted Kngdom) and for the group of the other 11 EU member countres. In table 1, we provde the man results. We provde results for three countres plus the trend calculated at the EU-15 level. EU-15 trend s calculated usng the trends estmated for the dfferent member states. It s nterestng to note that butter and flud mlk consumpton are lkely to decrease at the EU-15 level. On the contrary, the demand for the other dary products s lkely to ncrease. Some ncreases n consumpton are rather hgh (cheese, fresh dary products). These reflect past evoluton. Obvously, t s questonable to know whether past

7 trends wll contnue. However, the estmated models always ntegrate the possblty of slow down n the consumpton (for example usng polynomal expressons). It should also be stressed that these results correspond to the total consumpton of dary products. That s the drect consumpton from consumers at home and outsde home plus the ndrect consumpton va the agro-food system. Table 1: Estmated annual average growth rate of dary product consumpton between 2000 and 2010 Product EU-15 Germany France Italy Butter -1.4% -1.8% -0.4% +0.7% Cheese +1.7% +1.4% +0.7% +1.2% Processed cheese +1.4% +0.4% +1.9% +1.5% Flud mlk -0.6% -1.1% -0.2% -1.4% Cream +1.3% +0.1% +2.1% +2.1% Fresh dary products +2.4% +1.0% +2.3% +3.7% Cheese = all knds of cheese except processed cheese Wth respect to mlk powders and condensed mlk, consumptons greatly vary from year to year and t s dffcult to estmate trends. We estmate that the annual average growth rate of consumpton for whole mlk powder s +1.7%. For condensed mlk, t s +2.3%. For skmmed mlk powder, t was not possble to estmate a trend as the evoluton of consumpton s not explaned by any of the varables we have. It seems that skm mlk powder can be substtuted by whey powder and thus the consumpton hghly depends on the relatve prce between these two products. Gven these dfferent trends of consumpton, usng the composton of the dfferent products n fat and proten, we compute an estmated annual average growth rate of fat and proten consumpton. We fnd that both fat and proten consumpton wll ncrease. It s estmated that EU consumpton of fat (from mlk) wll ncrease by 0.5% a year and that EU consumpton of proten (from mlk) wll ncrease by 1.1% a year. 4.2 Estmates of prce demand elastctes In the followng, we report our man fndngs wth respect to own and cross prce elastctes of dary products n France and Italy. We computed both the condtonal and the uncondtonal uncompensated elastctes. The several stage budgetng allocaton mples weak separablty of consumer preferences. The practcal mplcaton of ths assumpton s that estmaton s more smple and parsmonous n degree of freedom: n fact, each step can be estmated ndependently. However, the elastctes drectly estmated usng demand systems are condtonal to the assumed separablty tree and therefore to the assgned group of expendture. Whether condtonal or uncondtonal elastctes should be more relevant depends on the specfc objectve of the emprcal applcaton. For the polcy objectves of the EDIM project, uncondtonal elastctes are more relevant snce they better measure the detaled reacton of dary consumpton to a change n macroeconmc varables such as GDP and polcy measures. Therefore, to compute uncondtonal elastctes from the condtonal counterpart we adopted the method suggested by Edgerton (1997).

8 France In Tables 2 and 3, we present the condtonal and uncondtonal uncompensated prce elastctes of dary products. Uncondtonal elastctes are lower than condtonal ones. All expendtures elastctes are hghly sgnfcant and of the same order of magntude (around 0.6). Own prce elastctes are generally sgnfcant (except for cream) and as t s frequently found n the lterature demand for dary products s nelastc. However, we found a larger value for the demand for flud mlk. Ths result was not expected as t s generally thought that demand for flud mlk s very nelastc. Only a small number of cross prce elastctes are sgnfcant. Wth respect to uncondtonal elastctes, only one cross-prce relaton s sgnfcant: the one between cheese and cream whch reveals a complemantarty between these two products. Table 2: Condtonal uncompensated elastces for dary products Product Fresh Products Cream Cheese Flud Mlk Expendture Fresh Products *** * *** Cream *** *** Cheese ** *** *** *** Flud Mlk *** 1.027*** Fresh products (yoghurts + dary desserts + fresh cheese). *** sgnfcant at 1%, ** sgnfcant at 5%, * sgnfcant at 10% Table 3: Uncondtonal uncompensated elastctes for dary products Fresh Product Products Cream Cheese Flud Mlk Expendture Fresh Products ** *** Cream * *** Cheese * ** *** Flud Mlk *** 0.620*** Fresh products (yoghurts + dary desserts + fresh cheese). *** sgnfcant at 1%, ** sgnfcant at 5%, * sgnfcant at 10% Table 4 provdes the results wth respect to fat products. The expendture elastcty of demand for butter s hghly sgnfcant and of the same order of magntude as the ones obtaned for the other dary products. The prce elastcty of butter s weakly sgnfcant and consumpton s nelastc. Fnally, we do not get a sgnfcant cross-prce effect between butter and ols and margarne. Table 4: Uncondtonal uncompensated elastctes for fat products Product Butter Ols&Margarne Expendture Butter * *** Ols&Margarne ** 0.466*** *** sgnfcant at 1%, ** sgnfcant at 5%, * sgnfcant at 10% Fnally, Table 5 provdes the results for cheese whch are derved from the fourth stage. Agan, expendture elastctes are hghly sgnfcant and vary between 0.43 and Own prce elastctes are all negatve and they are hgh (n absolute term) for some cheese. We also fnd some substtuablty between the dfferent cheese categores (soft cheese and sem-hard cheese, fresh cheese and hard cheese, processed cheese and hard cheese).

9 Table 5: Uncondtonal uncompensated elastctes for the dfferent cheese categores Sem- Product Soft Hard Hard Blue Fresh Processed Expendture - Soft 0.586*** *** *** Hard *** ** 0.139*** 0.688*** Sem-Hard 0.527*** *** *** Blue *** ** 0.752*** Fresh ** *** *** Processed *** ** ** 0.428*** *** sgnfcant at 1%, ** sgnfcant at 5%, * sgnfcant at 10% Italy In Tables 6 and 7, we present the condtonal and uncondtonal uncompensated prce elastctes for dary products n Italy. Table 6: Condtonnal uncompensated elastces for dary products n Italy Lqud mlk Fresh dary PDO cheese Other cheese Butter EXP Lqud mlk *** *** *** 0.205*** 0.874*** Fresh dary *** *** *** 1.036*** PDO cheese *** *** *** *** *** 1.204*** Other cheese *** *** *** *** Butter 0.595*** *** *** *** 0.938*** Table 7: Uncondtonnal uncompensated elastctes for dary products n Italy Lqud mlk Fresh dary PDO cheese Other cheese Butter EXP Lqud mlk *** *** 0.628*** Fresh dary *** *** 0.347*** *** 0.744*** PDO cheese *** *** Other cheese *** *** *** Butter 0.242*** -0.22*** *** 0.674*** As n the case of France, the absolute value of the drect prce elastcty for lqud mlk s hgh compared to a pror expectatons. Qute nelastc appear to be the prce elastcty for PDO cheeses that also show the hghest total expendture elastcty. Among the other results, more nvestgaton s needed to explan the relatvely hgh substtutablty between lqud mlk and butter. Fnally, expendture elastctes are of the same order of magntude as compared to the results for France. 5. Conclusons Snce the results of the dary model, that ams at analyzng the mpact of the CAP reform, are very senstve to the assumptons on demand trend and snce trends may be dfferent among EU member countres, t was mportant to estmate these demand trends. Accordng to these estmates, consumpton trends of dary products are dfferent accordng to the product consdered. Consumpton of basc products such as butter and flud mlk wll decrease

10 whereas products such as cheese and fresh dary products wll ncrease. On the whole, t s expected that demand for proten ncreases more than the demand for fat n the future. Snce the results of any analyss of dary polcy reforms depend on the assumptons on prce elastcty of dary products, we estmate a demand system n France and Italy. We generally fnd that demand s rather prce nelastc and that expendture elastctes are sgnfcant and vary between 0.4 and 0.7. However, the absolute value of prce elastctes s sometme hgher than expected. It s specally the case for the demand for flud mlk both n France and Italy. For France, we also show that aggregate demand for cheese s relatvely prce nelastc. However, the demand of a specfc cheese s more prce elastc as substtuton between cheese s frequently sgnfcant. 6. Reference lst Bouamra-Mechemache Z., J.P. Chavas, T. Cox, V. Réqullart, 2002, EU dary polcy reform and future WTO negotatons: a spatal equlbrum analyss, Journal of Agrcultural Economcs. 53(2):4-29. Deaton, A., J. Muellbauer. Economcs and consumer behavor. Cambrdge Unversty Press (1980). Edgerton, D.L.. Weak Separablty and the Estmaton of Elastctes n Multstage Demand Systems. Amercan Journal of Agrcultural Economcs 79: (1997). Moschn, G.. Unts of measurement and the Stone ndex n demand system estmaton. Amercan Journal of Agrcultural Economcs 77: (1995). Moschn, G.. The Semflexble Almost Ideal Demand System. European Economc Revew, 42 (2): (1998).

Study on CET4 Marks in China s Graded English Teaching

Study on CET4 Marks in China s Graded English Teaching Study on CET4 Marks n Chna s Graded Englsh Teachng CHE We College of Foregn Studes, Shandong Insttute of Busness and Technology, P.R.Chna, 264005 Abstract: Ths paper deploys Logt model, and decomposes

More information

Can Auto Liability Insurance Purchases Signal Risk Attitude?

Can Auto Liability Insurance Purchases Signal Risk Attitude? Internatonal Journal of Busness and Economcs, 2011, Vol. 10, No. 2, 159-164 Can Auto Lablty Insurance Purchases Sgnal Rsk Atttude? Chu-Shu L Department of Internatonal Busness, Asa Unversty, Tawan Sheng-Chang

More information

Determining the Market Potential of Livestock and Poultry in the Philippines: An Application of the Almost Ideal Demand System

Determining the Market Potential of Livestock and Poultry in the Philippines: An Application of the Almost Ideal Demand System Determnng the Market Potental of Lvestock and Poultry n the Phlppnes: An Applcaton of the Almost Ideal Demand System Apolnares, R.J.V., Dgal, L.N., and J.M.P. Sarmento ABSTRACT Estmatng demand especally

More information

Inequality and The Accounting Period. Quentin Wodon and Shlomo Yitzhaki. World Bank and Hebrew University. September 2001.

Inequality and The Accounting Period. Quentin Wodon and Shlomo Yitzhaki. World Bank and Hebrew University. September 2001. Inequalty and The Accountng Perod Quentn Wodon and Shlomo Ytzha World Ban and Hebrew Unversty September Abstract Income nequalty typcally declnes wth the length of tme taen nto account for measurement.

More information

PRIVATE SCHOOL CHOICE: THE EFFECTS OF RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION AND PARTICIPATION

PRIVATE SCHOOL CHOICE: THE EFFECTS OF RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION AND PARTICIPATION PRIVATE SCHOOL CHOICE: THE EFFECTS OF RELIIOUS AFFILIATION AND PARTICIPATION Danny Cohen-Zada Department of Economcs, Ben-uron Unversty, Beer-Sheva 84105, Israel Wllam Sander Department of Economcs, DePaul

More information

Short-run and Long-run structural international tourism demand modeling based on Dynamic AIDS model -An empirical research in Japan-

Short-run and Long-run structural international tourism demand modeling based on Dynamic AIDS model -An empirical research in Japan- hort-run and ong-run structural nternatonal toursm demand modelng based on Dynamc AID model -An emprcal research n Japan- Atsush KOIKE a, Dasuke YOHINO b a Graduate chool of Engneerng, Kobe Unversty, Kobe,

More information

Implications of WTO Tariff Reductions for EU and US Dairy Policy

Implications of WTO Tariff Reductions for EU and US Dairy Policy Workng Paper Implcatons of WTO Tarff Reductons for EU and US Dary Polcy Mrana Pac Davd Blandford Kenneth Baley March 2009 IATRC Workng Paper #09-1 Internatonal Agrcultural Trade Research Consortum Implcatons

More information

On the Optimal Control of a Cascade of Hydro-Electric Power Stations

On the Optimal Control of a Cascade of Hydro-Electric Power Stations On the Optmal Control of a Cascade of Hydro-Electrc Power Statons M.C.M. Guedes a, A.F. Rbero a, G.V. Smrnov b and S. Vlela c a Department of Mathematcs, School of Scences, Unversty of Porto, Portugal;

More information

Risk Model of Long-Term Production Scheduling in Open Pit Gold Mining

Risk Model of Long-Term Production Scheduling in Open Pit Gold Mining Rsk Model of Long-Term Producton Schedulng n Open Pt Gold Mnng R Halatchev 1 and P Lever 2 ABSTRACT Open pt gold mnng s an mportant sector of the Australan mnng ndustry. It uses large amounts of nvestments,

More information

The Effects of Tax Rate Changes on Tax Bases and the Marginal Cost of Public Funds for Canadian Provincial Governments

The Effects of Tax Rate Changes on Tax Bases and the Marginal Cost of Public Funds for Canadian Provincial Governments The Effects of Tax Rate Changes on Tax Bases and the Margnal Cost of Publc Funds for Canadan Provncal Governments Bev Dahlby a and Ergete Ferede b a Department of Economcs, Unversty of Alberta, Edmonton,

More information

WORKING PAPER. C.D. Howe Institute. The Effects of Tax Rate Changes on Tax Bases and the Marginal Cost of Public Funds for Provincial Governments

WORKING PAPER. C.D. Howe Institute. The Effects of Tax Rate Changes on Tax Bases and the Marginal Cost of Public Funds for Provincial Governments MARCH 211 C.D. Howe Insttute WORKING PAPER FISCAL AND TAX COMPETITIVENESS The Effects of Tax Rate Changes on Tax Bases and the Margnal Cost of Publc Funds for Provncal Governments Bev Dahlby Ergete Ferede

More information

Ibon Galarraga, Luis M. Abadie and Alberto Ansuategi. 5 th Atlantic Workshop on Energy and Environmental Economics A Toxa, 2012

Ibon Galarraga, Luis M. Abadie and Alberto Ansuategi. 5 th Atlantic Workshop on Energy and Environmental Economics A Toxa, 2012 ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY, ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTIVENESS AND POLITICAL FEASIBILITY OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY REBATES: THE CASE OF THE SPANISH ENERGY EFFICIENCY RENOVE PLAN. Ibon Galarraga, Lus M. Abade and Alberto

More information

DO LOSS FIRMS MANAGE EARNINGS AROUND SEASONED EQUITY OFFERINGS?

DO LOSS FIRMS MANAGE EARNINGS AROUND SEASONED EQUITY OFFERINGS? DO LOSS FIRMS MANAGE EARNINGS AROUND SEASONED EQUITY OFFERINGS? Fernando Comran, Unversty of San Francsco, School of Management, 2130 Fulton Street, CA 94117, Unted States, fcomran@usfca.edu Tatana Fedyk,

More information

WORKING PAPERS. The Impact of Technological Change and Lifestyles on the Energy Demand of Households

WORKING PAPERS. The Impact of Technological Change and Lifestyles on the Energy Demand of Households ÖSTERREICHISCHES INSTITUT FÜR WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG WORKING PAPERS The Impact of Technologcal Change and Lfestyles on the Energy Demand of Households A Combnaton of Aggregate and Indvdual Household Analyss

More information

Communication Networks II Contents

Communication Networks II Contents 8 / 1 -- Communcaton Networs II (Görg) -- www.comnets.un-bremen.de Communcaton Networs II Contents 1 Fundamentals of probablty theory 2 Traffc n communcaton networs 3 Stochastc & Marovan Processes (SP

More information

Trade Adjustment and Productivity in Large Crises. Online Appendix May 2013. Appendix A: Derivation of Equations for Productivity

Trade Adjustment and Productivity in Large Crises. Online Appendix May 2013. Appendix A: Derivation of Equations for Productivity Trade Adjustment Productvty n Large Crses Gta Gopnath Department of Economcs Harvard Unversty NBER Brent Neman Booth School of Busness Unversty of Chcago NBER Onlne Appendx May 2013 Appendx A: Dervaton

More information

Marginal Benefit Incidence Analysis Using a Single Cross-section of Data. Mohamed Ihsan Ajwad and Quentin Wodon 1. World Bank.

Marginal Benefit Incidence Analysis Using a Single Cross-section of Data. Mohamed Ihsan Ajwad and Quentin Wodon 1. World Bank. Margnal Beneft Incdence Analyss Usng a Sngle Cross-secton of Data Mohamed Ihsan Ajwad and uentn Wodon World Bank August 200 Abstract In a recent paper, Lanjouw and Ravallon proposed an attractve and smple

More information

Economic Interpretation of Regression. Theory and Applications

Economic Interpretation of Regression. Theory and Applications Economc Interpretaton of Regresson Theor and Applcatons Classcal and Baesan Econometrc Methods Applcaton of mathematcal statstcs to economc data for emprcal support Economc theor postulates a qualtatve

More information

Analysis of Subscription Demand for Pay-TV

Analysis of Subscription Demand for Pay-TV Analyss of Subscrpton Demand for Pay-TV Manabu Shshkura * Norhro Kasuga ** Ako Tor *** Abstract In ths paper, we wll conduct an analyss from an emprcal perspectve concernng broadcastng demand behavor and

More information

SIMPLE LINEAR CORRELATION

SIMPLE LINEAR CORRELATION SIMPLE LINEAR CORRELATION Smple lnear correlaton s a measure of the degree to whch two varables vary together, or a measure of the ntensty of the assocaton between two varables. Correlaton often s abused.

More information

Modelling the World Oil Market Assessment of a Quarterly Econometric Model

Modelling the World Oil Market Assessment of a Quarterly Econometric Model Modellng the World Ol Market Assessment of a Quarterly Econometrc Model Stéphane Dées a1, Pavlos Karadeloglou a, Robert Kaufmann b, Marcelo Sánchez a a European Central Bank b CEES, Boston Unversty May

More information

The Analysis of Covariance. ERSH 8310 Keppel and Wickens Chapter 15

The Analysis of Covariance. ERSH 8310 Keppel and Wickens Chapter 15 The Analyss of Covarance ERSH 830 Keppel and Wckens Chapter 5 Today s Class Intal Consderatons Covarance and Lnear Regresson The Lnear Regresson Equaton TheAnalyss of Covarance Assumptons Underlyng the

More information

The Cost of Food Self-Sufficiency and Agricultural Protection in South Korea

The Cost of Food Self-Sufficiency and Agricultural Protection in South Korea The Cost of Food Self-Suffcency and Agrcultural Protecton n South Korea John C. Beghn (Iowa State Unversty) beghn@astate.edu Jean-Chrstophe Bureau (INA P-G and Iowa State Unversty) Sung Joon Park* (Bank

More information

Calculation of Sampling Weights

Calculation of Sampling Weights Perre Foy Statstcs Canada 4 Calculaton of Samplng Weghts 4.1 OVERVIEW The basc sample desgn used n TIMSS Populatons 1 and 2 was a two-stage stratfed cluster desgn. 1 The frst stage conssted of a sample

More information

DECOMPOSING ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY FOR MULTI-PRODUCT PRODUCTION SYSTEMS

DECOMPOSING ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY FOR MULTI-PRODUCT PRODUCTION SYSTEMS DECOMPOSING ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY FOR MULTI-PRODUCT PRODUCTION SYSTEMS EKONOMIKA A MANAGEMENT Tao Zhang Introducton Data envelopment analyss (DEA, the non-parametrc approach to measurng effcency, was frst

More information

The Analysis of Outliers in Statistical Data

The Analysis of Outliers in Statistical Data THALES Project No. xxxx The Analyss of Outlers n Statstcal Data Research Team Chrysses Caron, Assocate Professor (P.I.) Vaslk Karot, Doctoral canddate Polychrons Economou, Chrstna Perrakou, Postgraduate

More information

The Development of Web Log Mining Based on Improve-K-Means Clustering Analysis

The Development of Web Log Mining Based on Improve-K-Means Clustering Analysis The Development of Web Log Mnng Based on Improve-K-Means Clusterng Analyss TngZhong Wang * College of Informaton Technology, Luoyang Normal Unversty, Luoyang, 471022, Chna wangtngzhong2@sna.cn Abstract.

More information

PSYCHOLOGICAL RESEARCH (PYC 304-C) Lecture 12

PSYCHOLOGICAL RESEARCH (PYC 304-C) Lecture 12 14 The Ch-squared dstrbuton PSYCHOLOGICAL RESEARCH (PYC 304-C) Lecture 1 If a normal varable X, havng mean µ and varance σ, s standardsed, the new varable Z has a mean 0 and varance 1. When ths standardsed

More information

Causal, Explanatory Forecasting. Analysis. Regression Analysis. Simple Linear Regression. Which is Independent? Forecasting

Causal, Explanatory Forecasting. Analysis. Regression Analysis. Simple Linear Regression. Which is Independent? Forecasting Causal, Explanatory Forecastng Assumes cause-and-effect relatonshp between system nputs and ts output Forecastng wth Regresson Analyss Rchard S. Barr Inputs System Cause + Effect Relatonshp The job of

More information

Risk-based Fatigue Estimate of Deep Water Risers -- Course Project for EM388F: Fracture Mechanics, Spring 2008

Risk-based Fatigue Estimate of Deep Water Risers -- Course Project for EM388F: Fracture Mechanics, Spring 2008 Rsk-based Fatgue Estmate of Deep Water Rsers -- Course Project for EM388F: Fracture Mechancs, Sprng 2008 Chen Sh Department of Cvl, Archtectural, and Envronmental Engneerng The Unversty of Texas at Austn

More information

Institute of Informatics, Faculty of Business and Management, Brno University of Technology,Czech Republic

Institute of Informatics, Faculty of Business and Management, Brno University of Technology,Czech Republic Lagrange Multplers as Quanttatve Indcators n Economcs Ivan Mezník Insttute of Informatcs, Faculty of Busness and Management, Brno Unversty of TechnologCzech Republc Abstract The quanttatve role of Lagrange

More information

Answer: A). There is a flatter IS curve in the high MPC economy. Original LM LM after increase in M. IS curve for low MPC economy

Answer: A). There is a flatter IS curve in the high MPC economy. Original LM LM after increase in M. IS curve for low MPC economy 4.02 Quz Solutons Fall 2004 Multple-Choce Questons (30/00 ponts) Please, crcle the correct answer for each of the followng 0 multple-choce questons. For each queston, only one of the answers s correct.

More information

benefit is 2, paid if the policyholder dies within the year, and probability of death within the year is ).

benefit is 2, paid if the policyholder dies within the year, and probability of death within the year is ). REVIEW OF RISK MANAGEMENT CONCEPTS LOSS DISTRIBUTIONS AND INSURANCE Loss and nsurance: When someone s subject to the rsk of ncurrng a fnancal loss, the loss s generally modeled usng a random varable or

More information

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES CARBON MOTIVATED REGIONAL TRADE ARRANGEMENTS: ANALYTICS AND SIMULATIONS. Yan Dong John Whalley

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES CARBON MOTIVATED REGIONAL TRADE ARRANGEMENTS: ANALYTICS AND SIMULATIONS. Yan Dong John Whalley NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES CARBON MOTIVATED REGIONAL TRADE ARRANGEMENTS: ANALYTICS AND SIMULATIONS Yan Dong John Whalley Workng Paper 14880 http://www.nber.org/papers/w14880 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC

More information

Addendum to: Importing Skill-Biased Technology

Addendum to: Importing Skill-Biased Technology Addendum to: Importng Skll-Based Technology Arel Bursten UCLA and NBER Javer Cravno UCLA August 202 Jonathan Vogel Columba and NBER Abstract Ths Addendum derves the results dscussed n secton 3.3 of our

More information

H 1 : at least one is not zero

H 1 : at least one is not zero Chapter 6 More Multple Regresson Model The F-test Jont Hypothess Tests Consder the lnear regresson equaton: () y = β + βx + βx + β4x4 + e for =,,..., N The t-statstc gve a test of sgnfcance of an ndvdual

More information

UK Letter Mail Demand: a Content Based Time Series Analysis using Overlapping Market Survey Statistical Techniques

UK Letter Mail Demand: a Content Based Time Series Analysis using Overlapping Market Survey Statistical Techniques 10-170 Research Group: Econometrcs and Statstcs 2010 UK Letter Mal Demand: a Content Based Tme Seres nalyss usng Overlappng Market Survey Statstcal Technques CTHERINE CZLS, JEN-PIERRE FLORENS, LETICI VERUETE-MCKY,

More information

Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade. Working Paper Series, No. 81, July 2010. Truong P. Truong

Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade. Working Paper Series, No. 81, July 2010. Truong P. Truong Asa-Pacfc Research and Tranng Network on Trade Workng Paper Seres, No. 8, July 00 Revew of Analytcal Tools for Assessng Trade and Clmate Change Lnkages By Truong P. Truong Truong P. Truong s Honorary Professor

More information

Searching and Switching: Empirical estimates of consumer behaviour in regulated markets

Searching and Switching: Empirical estimates of consumer behaviour in regulated markets Searchng and Swtchng: Emprcal estmates of consumer behavour n regulated markets Catherne Waddams Prce Centre for Competton Polcy, Unversty of East Angla Catherne Webster Centre for Competton Polcy, Unversty

More information

Covariate-based pricing of automobile insurance

Covariate-based pricing of automobile insurance Insurance Markets and Companes: Analyses and Actuaral Computatons, Volume 1, Issue 2, 2010 José Antono Ordaz (Span), María del Carmen Melgar (Span) Covarate-based prcng of automoble nsurance Abstract Ths

More information

! # %& ( ) +,../ 0 1 2 3 4 0 4 # 5##&.6 7% 8 # 0 4 2 #...

! # %& ( ) +,../ 0 1 2 3 4 0 4 # 5##&.6 7% 8 # 0 4 2 #... ! # %& ( ) +,../ 0 1 2 3 4 0 4 # 5##&.6 7% 8 # 0 4 2 #... 9 Sheffeld Economc Research Paper Seres SERP Number: 2011010 ISSN 1749-8368 Sarah Brown, Aurora Ortz-Núñez and Karl Taylor Educatonal loans and

More information

Macro Factors and Volatility of Treasury Bond Returns

Macro Factors and Volatility of Treasury Bond Returns Macro Factors and Volatlty of Treasury Bond Returns Jngzh Huang Department of Fnance Smeal Colleage of Busness Pennsylvana State Unversty Unversty Park, PA 16802, U.S.A. Le Lu School of Fnance Shangha

More information

SUPPLIER FINANCING AND STOCK MANAGEMENT. A JOINT VIEW.

SUPPLIER FINANCING AND STOCK MANAGEMENT. A JOINT VIEW. SUPPLIER FINANCING AND STOCK MANAGEMENT. A JOINT VIEW. Lucía Isabel García Cebrán Departamento de Economía y Dreccón de Empresas Unversdad de Zaragoza Gran Vía, 2 50.005 Zaragoza (Span) Phone: 976-76-10-00

More information

Finn Roar Aune, Hanne Marit Dalen and Cathrine Hagem

Finn Roar Aune, Hanne Marit Dalen and Cathrine Hagem Dscusson Papers No. 630, September 2010 Statstcs Norway, Research Department Fnn Roar Aune, Hanne Mart Dalen and Cathrne Hagem Implementng the EU renewable target through green certfcate markets Abstract:

More information

The covariance is the two variable analog to the variance. The formula for the covariance between two variables is

The covariance is the two variable analog to the variance. The formula for the covariance between two variables is Regresson Lectures So far we have talked only about statstcs that descrbe one varable. What we are gong to be dscussng for much of the remander of the course s relatonshps between two or more varables.

More information

Analysis of Premium Liabilities for Australian Lines of Business

Analysis of Premium Liabilities for Australian Lines of Business Summary of Analyss of Premum Labltes for Australan Lnes of Busness Emly Tao Honours Research Paper, The Unversty of Melbourne Emly Tao Acknowledgements I am grateful to the Australan Prudental Regulaton

More information

The influence of supplementary health insurance on switching behaviour: evidence on Swiss data

The influence of supplementary health insurance on switching behaviour: evidence on Swiss data Workng Paper n 07-02 The nfluence of supplementary health nsurance on swtchng behavour: evdence on Swss data Brgtte Dormont, Perre- Yves Geoffard, Karne Lamraud The nfluence of supplementary health nsurance

More information

FIGHTING INFORMALITY IN SEGMENTED LABOR MARKETS A general equilibrium analysis applied to Uruguay *

FIGHTING INFORMALITY IN SEGMENTED LABOR MARKETS A general equilibrium analysis applied to Uruguay * Vol. 48, No. 1 (May, 2011), 1-37 FIGHTING INFORMALITY IN SEGMENTED LABOR MARKETS A general equlbrum analyss appled to Uruguay * Carmen Estrades ** María Inés Terra ** As n other Latn Amercan countres,

More information

Wage inequality and returns to schooling in Europe: a semi-parametric approach using EU-SILC data

Wage inequality and returns to schooling in Europe: a semi-parametric approach using EU-SILC data MPRA Munch Personal RePEc Archve Wage nequalty and returns to schoolng n Europe: a sem-parametrc approach usng EU-SILC data Marco Bagett and Sergo Sccchtano Unversty La Sapenza Rome, Mnstry of Economc

More information

When Talk is Free : The Effect of Tariff Structure on Usage under Two- and Three-Part Tariffs

When Talk is Free : The Effect of Tariff Structure on Usage under Two- and Three-Part Tariffs 0 When Talk s Free : The Effect of Tarff Structure on Usage under Two- and Three-Part Tarffs Eva Ascarza Ana Lambrecht Naufel Vlcassm July 2012 (Forthcomng at Journal of Marketng Research) Eva Ascarza

More information

An Alternative Way to Measure Private Equity Performance

An Alternative Way to Measure Private Equity Performance An Alternatve Way to Measure Prvate Equty Performance Peter Todd Parlux Investment Technology LLC Summary Internal Rate of Return (IRR) s probably the most common way to measure the performance of prvate

More information

Labor Supply. Where we re going:

Labor Supply. Where we re going: Labor Supply Where we re gong: I m gong to spend about 4 lectures talkng about labor supply. Along the way, I m gong to ntroduce some econometrc ssues and tools that we commonly use. Today s lecture and

More information

energies ISSN 1996-1073 www.mdpi.com/journal/energies

energies ISSN 1996-1073 www.mdpi.com/journal/energies Energes 2013, 6, 3444-3465; do:10.3390/en6073444 Artcle OPEN ACCESS energes ISSN 1996-1073 www.mdp.com/journal/energes Comparson and Analyss of Macro Energy Scenaros n Chna and a Decomposton-Based Approach

More information

A global view of managing water resources in Tunisia

A global view of managing water resources in Tunisia OCP Polcy Center Conference seres A global vew of managng water resources n Tunsa Jamel Chahed & Mustapha Besbes & Abdelkader Hamdane 11-13 June 2014 Tunsan water resources Average ranfall Pluval water

More information

A Source Differentiated Analysis of U.S. Meat Demand. Joao E. Mutondo and Shida Rastegari Henneberry

A Source Differentiated Analysis of U.S. Meat Demand. Joao E. Mutondo and Shida Rastegari Henneberry A Source Dfferentated Analyss of U.S. Meat Demand By Joao E. Mutondo and Shda Rastegar Henneberry Joao E. Mutondo s a postdoctoral research assocate n the Department of Agrcultural Economcs, Oklahoma State

More information

Module 2 LOSSLESS IMAGE COMPRESSION SYSTEMS. Version 2 ECE IIT, Kharagpur

Module 2 LOSSLESS IMAGE COMPRESSION SYSTEMS. Version 2 ECE IIT, Kharagpur Module LOSSLESS IMAGE COMPRESSION SYSTEMS Lesson 3 Lossless Compresson: Huffman Codng Instructonal Objectves At the end of ths lesson, the students should be able to:. Defne and measure source entropy..

More information

World Economic Vulnerability Monitor (WEVUM) Trade shock analysis

World Economic Vulnerability Monitor (WEVUM) Trade shock analysis World Economc Vulnerablty Montor (WEVUM) Trade shock analyss Measurng the mpact of the global shocks on trade balances va prce and demand effects Alex Izureta and Rob Vos UN DESA 1. Non-techncal descrpton

More information

Location Factors for Non-Ferrous Exploration Investments

Location Factors for Non-Ferrous Exploration Investments Locaton Factors for Non-Ferrous Exploraton Investments Irna Khndanova Unversty of Denver Ths paper analyzes the relatve mportance of geologcal potental and nvestment clmate for nonferrous mnerals exploraton

More information

Criminal Justice System on Crime *

Criminal Justice System on Crime * On the Impact of the NSW Crmnal Justce System on Crme * Dr Vasls Sarafds, Dscplne of Operatons Management and Econometrcs Unversty of Sydney * Ths presentaton s based on jont work wth Rchard Kelaher 1

More information

x f(x) 1 0.25 1 0.75 x 1 0 1 1 0.04 0.01 0.20 1 0.12 0.03 0.60

x f(x) 1 0.25 1 0.75 x 1 0 1 1 0.04 0.01 0.20 1 0.12 0.03 0.60 BIVARIATE DISTRIBUTIONS Let be a varable that assumes the values { 1,,..., n }. Then, a functon that epresses the relatve frequenc of these values s called a unvarate frequenc functon. It must be true

More information

Overview of monitoring and evaluation

Overview of monitoring and evaluation 540 Toolkt to Combat Traffckng n Persons Tool 10.1 Overvew of montorng and evaluaton Overvew Ths tool brefly descrbes both montorng and evaluaton, and the dstncton between the two. What s montorng? Montorng

More information

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN QUANTITATIVE COMPARATIVE METHODOLOGY:

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN QUANTITATIVE COMPARATIVE METHODOLOGY: Federco Podestà RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN QUANTITATIVE COMPARATIVE METHODOLOGY: THE CASE OF POOLED TIME SERIES CROSS-SECTION ANALYSIS DSS PAPERS SOC 3-02 INDICE 1. Advantages and Dsadvantages of Pooled Analyss...

More information

Why Do Cities Matter? Local Growth and Aggregate Growth

Why Do Cities Matter? Local Growth and Aggregate Growth Why Do Ctes Matter? Local Growth and Aggregate Growth Chang-Ta Hseh Unversty of Chcago Enrco Morett Unversty of Calforna, Berkeley Aprl 2015 Abstract. We study how growth of ctes determnes the growth of

More information

Is There A Tradeoff between Employer-Provided Health Insurance and Wages?

Is There A Tradeoff between Employer-Provided Health Insurance and Wages? Is There A Tradeoff between Employer-Provded Health Insurance and Wages? Lye Zhu, Southern Methodst Unversty October 2005 Abstract Though most of the lterature n health nsurance and the labor market assumes

More information

Estimation of price elasticities of demand for alcohol in the United Kingdom

Estimation of price elasticities of demand for alcohol in the United Kingdom Knowledge, Analyss, and Intellgence (KAI) Estmaton of prce elastctes of demand for alcohol n the Unted Kngdom João Sousa December 2014 HMRC Workng Paper 16 Estmaton of prce elastctes of demand for alcohol

More information

Cambodian Child s Wage Rate, Human Capital and Hours Worked Trade-off: Simple Theoretical and Empirical Evidence for Policy Implications

Cambodian Child s Wage Rate, Human Capital and Hours Worked Trade-off: Simple Theoretical and Empirical Evidence for Policy Implications GSIS Workng Paper Seres ambodan hld s Wage Rate, Human aptal and Hours Worked Trade-off: Smple Theoretcal and Emprcal Evdence for Polcy Implcatons Han PHOUMIN Sech FUKUI No. 6 August 2006 Graduate School

More information

Evaluating the Effects of FUNDEF on Wages and Test Scores in Brazil *

Evaluating the Effects of FUNDEF on Wages and Test Scores in Brazil * Evaluatng the Effects of FUNDEF on Wages and Test Scores n Brazl * Naérco Menezes-Flho Elane Pazello Unversty of São Paulo Abstract In ths paper we nvestgate the effects of the 1998 reform n the fundng

More information

PhD dissertation. A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Jordan s Trade Liberalisation

PhD dissertation. A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Jordan s Trade Liberalisation PhD dssertaton A Dynamc General Equlbrum Analyss of Jordan s Trade Lberalsaton Omar Ferabol Eultzstraße 2 09112 Chemntz emal: omar.ferabol@wrtschaft.tu-chemntz.de PhD supervsor: Prof. Dr. Bernd Lucke Referee:

More information

DEFINING %COMPLETE IN MICROSOFT PROJECT

DEFINING %COMPLETE IN MICROSOFT PROJECT CelersSystems DEFINING %COMPLETE IN MICROSOFT PROJECT PREPARED BY James E Aksel, PMP, PMI-SP, MVP For Addtonal Informaton about Earned Value Management Systems and reportng, please contact: CelersSystems,

More information

The Pricing Strategy of the Manufacturer with Dual Channel under Multiple Competitions

The Pricing Strategy of the Manufacturer with Dual Channel under Multiple Competitions Internatonal Journal of u-and e-servce, Scence and Technology Vol.7, No.4 (04), pp.3-4 http://dx.do.org/0.457/junnesst.04.7.4. The Prcng Strategy of the Manufacturer wth Dual Channel under Multple Compettons

More information

Medium and long term. Equilibrium models approach

Medium and long term. Equilibrium models approach Medum and long term electrcty prces forecastng Equlbrum models approach J. Vllar, A. Campos, C. íaz, Insttuto de Investgacón Tecnológca, Escuela Técnca Superor de Ingenería-ICAI Unversdad ontfca Comllas

More information

World currency options market efficiency

World currency options market efficiency Arful Hoque (Australa) World optons market effcency Abstract The World Currency Optons (WCO) maket began tradng n July 2007 on the Phladelpha Stock Exchange (PHLX) wth the new features. These optons are

More information

Management Quality, Financial and Investment Policies, and. Asymmetric Information

Management Quality, Financial and Investment Policies, and. Asymmetric Information Management Qualty, Fnancal and Investment Polces, and Asymmetrc Informaton Thomas J. Chemmanur * Imants Paegls ** and Karen Smonyan *** Current verson: December 2007 * Professor of Fnance, Carroll School

More information

5 Multiple regression analysis with qualitative information

5 Multiple regression analysis with qualitative information 5 Multple regresson analyss wth qualtatve nformaton Ezequel Urel Unversty of Valenca Verson: 9-13 5.1 Introducton of qualtatve nformaton n econometrc models. 1 5. A sngle dummy ndependent varable 5.3 Multple

More information

Study on Model of Risks Assessment of Standard Operation in Rural Power Network

Study on Model of Risks Assessment of Standard Operation in Rural Power Network Study on Model of Rsks Assessment of Standard Operaton n Rural Power Network Qngj L 1, Tao Yang 2 1 Qngj L, College of Informaton and Electrcal Engneerng, Shenyang Agrculture Unversty, Shenyang 110866,

More information

Testing the Infrequent Purchases Model Using Direct Measurement of Hidden Consumption from Food Stocks

Testing the Infrequent Purchases Model Using Direct Measurement of Hidden Consumption from Food Stocks Testng the Infrequent Purchases Model Usng Drect Measurement of Hdden Consumpton from Food Stocks John Gbson and Bonggeun Km Abstract Reports of zero expendture on ndvdual commodtes durng the reference

More information

George S. Ford, PhD Thomas M. Koutsky, Esq. Lawrence J. Spiwak, Esq. (July 2007)

George S. Ford, PhD Thomas M. Koutsky, Esq. Lawrence J. Spiwak, Esq. (July 2007) PHOENIX CENTER POLICY PAPER SERIES Phoenx Center Polcy Paper Number 29: The Broadband Performance Index: A Polcy-Relevant Method of Comparng Broadband Adopton Among Countres George S. Ford, PhD Thomas

More information

How Large are the Gains from Economic Integration? Theory and Evidence from U.S. Agriculture, 1880-2002

How Large are the Gains from Economic Integration? Theory and Evidence from U.S. Agriculture, 1880-2002 How Large are the Gans from Economc Integraton? Theory and Evdence from U.S. Agrculture, 1880-2002 Arnaud Costnot MIT and NBER Dave Donaldson MIT, NBER and CIFAR PRELIMINARY AND INCOMPLETE August 15, 2011

More information

THE DETERMINANTS OF THE TUNISIAN BANKING INDUSTRY PROFITABILITY: PANEL EVIDENCE

THE DETERMINANTS OF THE TUNISIAN BANKING INDUSTRY PROFITABILITY: PANEL EVIDENCE THE DETERMINANTS OF THE TUNISIAN BANKING INDUSTRY PROFITABILITY: PANEL EVIDENCE Samy Ben Naceur ERF Research Fellow Department of Fnance Unversté Lbre de Tuns Avenue Khéreddne Pacha, 002 Tuns Emal : sbennaceur@eudoramal.com

More information

1. Measuring association using correlation and regression

1. Measuring association using correlation and regression How to measure assocaton I: Correlaton. 1. Measurng assocaton usng correlaton and regresson We often would lke to know how one varable, such as a mother's weght, s related to another varable, such as a

More information

Is Thailand s Fiscal System Pro-Poor?: Looking from Income and Expenditure Components. Hyun Hwa Son

Is Thailand s Fiscal System Pro-Poor?: Looking from Income and Expenditure Components. Hyun Hwa Son Is Thaland s Fscal System Pro-Poor?: Loong from Income and Expendture Components Hyun Hwa Son The World Ban 88 H Street, NW Washngton, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. Emal: hson@worldban.org Abstract: Ths paper develops

More information

Returns to Experience in Mozambique: A Nonparametric Regression Approach

Returns to Experience in Mozambique: A Nonparametric Regression Approach Returns to Experence n Mozambque: A Nonparametrc Regresson Approach Joel Muzma Conference Paper nº 27 Conferênca Inaugural do IESE Desafos para a nvestgação socal e económca em Moçambque 19 de Setembro

More information

Forecasting the Direction and Strength of Stock Market Movement

Forecasting the Direction and Strength of Stock Market Movement Forecastng the Drecton and Strength of Stock Market Movement Jngwe Chen Mng Chen Nan Ye cjngwe@stanford.edu mchen5@stanford.edu nanye@stanford.edu Abstract - Stock market s one of the most complcated systems

More information

An Empirical Study of Search Engine Advertising Effectiveness

An Empirical Study of Search Engine Advertising Effectiveness An Emprcal Study of Search Engne Advertsng Effectveness Sanjog Msra, Smon School of Busness Unversty of Rochester Edeal Pnker, Smon School of Busness Unversty of Rochester Alan Rmm-Kaufman, Rmm-Kaufman

More information

Depreciation of Business R&D Capital

Depreciation of Business R&D Capital Deprecaton of Busness R&D Captal U.S. Bureau of Economc Analyss Abstract R&D deprecaton rates are crtcal to calculatng the rates of return to R&D nvestments and captal servce costs, whch are mportant for

More information

Problem Set 3. a) We are asked how people will react, if the interest rate i on bonds is negative.

Problem Set 3. a) We are asked how people will react, if the interest rate i on bonds is negative. Queston roblem Set 3 a) We are asked how people wll react, f the nterest rate on bonds s negatve. When

More information

Chapter 8 Group-based Lending and Adverse Selection: A Study on Risk Behavior and Group Formation 1

Chapter 8 Group-based Lending and Adverse Selection: A Study on Risk Behavior and Group Formation 1 Chapter 8 Group-based Lendng and Adverse Selecton: A Study on Rsk Behavor and Group Formaton 1 8.1 Introducton Ths chapter deals wth group formaton and the adverse selecton problem. In several theoretcal

More information

The impact of hard discount control mechanism on the discount volatility of UK closed-end funds

The impact of hard discount control mechanism on the discount volatility of UK closed-end funds Investment Management and Fnancal Innovatons, Volume 10, Issue 3, 2013 Ahmed F. Salhn (Egypt) The mpact of hard dscount control mechansm on the dscount volatlty of UK closed-end funds Abstract The mpact

More information

IS-LM Model 1 C' dy = di

IS-LM Model 1 C' dy = di - odel Solow Assumptons - demand rrelevant n long run; assumes economy s operatng at potental GDP; concerned wth growth - Assumptons - supply s rrelevant n short run; assumes economy s operatng below potental

More information

Dairy Food Consumption, Production, and Policy in Japan

Dairy Food Consumption, Production, and Policy in Japan Dary Food Consumpton, Producton, and Polcy n Japan Isabelle Schluep Campo and John C. Beghn Workng Paper 05-WP 401 August 005 Center for Agrcultural and Rural Development Iowa State Unversty Ames, Iowa

More information

THE METHOD OF LEAST SQUARES THE METHOD OF LEAST SQUARES

THE METHOD OF LEAST SQUARES THE METHOD OF LEAST SQUARES The goal: to measure (determne) an unknown quantty x (the value of a RV X) Realsaton: n results: y 1, y 2,..., y j,..., y n, (the measured values of Y 1, Y 2,..., Y j,..., Y n ) every result s encumbered

More information

THE DISTRIBUTION OF LOAN PORTFOLIO VALUE * Oldrich Alfons Vasicek

THE DISTRIBUTION OF LOAN PORTFOLIO VALUE * Oldrich Alfons Vasicek HE DISRIBUION OF LOAN PORFOLIO VALUE * Oldrch Alfons Vascek he amount of captal necessary to support a portfolo of debt securtes depends on the probablty dstrbuton of the portfolo loss. Consder a portfolo

More information

Power-of-Two Policies for Single- Warehouse Multi-Retailer Inventory Systems with Order Frequency Discounts

Power-of-Two Policies for Single- Warehouse Multi-Retailer Inventory Systems with Order Frequency Discounts Power-of-wo Polces for Sngle- Warehouse Mult-Retaler Inventory Systems wth Order Frequency Dscounts José A. Ventura Pennsylvana State Unversty (USA) Yale. Herer echnon Israel Insttute of echnology (Israel)

More information

Forecasting the Demand of Emergency Supplies: Based on the CBR Theory and BP Neural Network

Forecasting the Demand of Emergency Supplies: Based on the CBR Theory and BP Neural Network 700 Proceedngs of the 8th Internatonal Conference on Innovaton & Management Forecastng the Demand of Emergency Supples: Based on the CBR Theory and BP Neural Network Fu Deqang, Lu Yun, L Changbng School

More information

TIME AND INCOME IN TRAVEL DEMAND Towards a microeconomic activity framework.

TIME AND INCOME IN TRAVEL DEMAND Towards a microeconomic activity framework. TIME AND INCOME IN TRAVEL DEMAND Towards a mcroeconomc actvty framework. Sergo R. Jara-Díaz Unversdad de Chle, Caslla 228-3, Santago, Chle Fax (56-2) 6712799 e-mal: aradaz@tamarugo.cec.uchle.cl Abstract

More information

Assessing the Impact of Direct Marketing in Overall Business Strategy: A Double Hurdle Approach

Assessing the Impact of Direct Marketing in Overall Business Strategy: A Double Hurdle Approach Assessng the Impact of Drect Marketng n Overall Busness Strategy: A Double Hurdle Approach Problem Statement As farms contnue to ncrease acreage, an ncreasng emphass on dfferent management strateges has

More information

2.4 Bivariate distributions

2.4 Bivariate distributions page 28 2.4 Bvarate dstrbutons 2.4.1 Defntons Let X and Y be dscrete r.v.s defned on the same probablty space (S, F, P). Instead of treatng them separately, t s often necessary to thnk of them actng together

More information

Forecasting and Stress Testing Credit Card Default using Dynamic Models

Forecasting and Stress Testing Credit Card Default using Dynamic Models Forecastng and Stress Testng Credt Card Default usng Dynamc Models Tony Bellott and Jonathan Crook Credt Research Centre Unversty of Ednburgh Busness School Verson 4.5 Abstract Typcally models of credt

More information

CHAPTER 14 MORE ABOUT REGRESSION

CHAPTER 14 MORE ABOUT REGRESSION CHAPTER 14 MORE ABOUT REGRESSION We learned n Chapter 5 that often a straght lne descrbes the pattern of a relatonshp between two quanttatve varables. For nstance, n Example 5.1 we explored the relatonshp

More information