Overview of the Italian Dairy Market

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1 Overview of the Italian Dairy Market Pio De Gregorio Head of Anna Tugnolo Senior Analyst 30 th November 2015

2 Summary Supply Demand Market External Trade Economic and financial analysis 2

3 The Italian Dairy Industry 3,420 companies 39,209 employees Milk production 2014 : 3,2 million tons Cheese production 2014 : 1 million tons 11.5% of total Italian food production 3 Source: - UBI Banca on ISTAT data

4 The Italian Milk Market Milk Market (value million of euro) F 2016F var.% 16/15 var.% 15/14 var.% 14/13 var.% 13/12 Production 2, , , , , % -3.5% -0.4% -2.7% Import % -10.9% -8.2% 7.1% Export % 16.4% 37.7% 12.8% Balance Domestic Market 2, , , , , % -4.5% -1.6% -1.4% Export/Production 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% Import/Market 12.8% 13.9% 12.9% 12.1% 12.1% 4

5 The Italian Cheese Market Cheese Market (value million of euro) F 2016F var.% 16/15 var.% 15/14 var.% 14/13 var.% 13/12 Production 4, , , , , % -1.3% 1.7% -1.3% Import 1, , , , , % -0.6% 0.0% 10.1% Export % -0.5% 8.0% 8.3% Balance Domestic Market 4, , , , , % -1.2% 0.2% 0.1% Export/Production 16.0% 17.5% 18.6% 18.8% 19.3% Import/Market 24.9% 27.4% 27.3% 27.5% 27.3% 5

6 The Italian Dairy Industry Companies Breakdown by Number of Employees employees 3.4% >=250 employees 0.3% employees 18.8% 0-9 employees 77.5% Year Source: - UBI Banca on ISTAT data

7 The Italian Dairy Industry Average Revenue per Company (million of euro) Source: - UBI Banca on ISTAT data

8 The Italian Dairy Industry Companies Breakdown by Type of Ownership Cooperative 16% Corporations 31% Sole proprietorship or Limited partnership 53% Year Source: - UBI Banca on ISTAT data

9 The Italian Dairy Industry 1% 9% 1% 5% 2% 5% 1% 15% Companies Regional Breakdown 3% 1% 1% 4% 2% 2% Regions with Higher Concentration of Dairy Companies 4% 19% 12% 3% 4% 7% 9 Source: - UBI Banca on ISTAT data

10 The quest for quality in the Italian Food Industry Quality as competitive key factor 100% 90% Industrie Alimentari e Main delle competitive Bevande - Principali factors (in punti % of di total forza companies competitiva delle 2011) imprese per attività economica (in% del totale aziende) - Anno % 90% 80% % sul totale aziende del settore 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 30% 24% 38% 29% 20% 20% Prezzo Price Qualità Quality Flessibilità Production produttiva flexibility Diversificazione Product diversification Produttiva 10% 0% Industrie Food Industry alimentari Industria Beverage delle Industry bevande According to the last ISTAT Census on Italian companies, quality represents the key competitive factor for the Food Industry. Price is far less relevant and production flexibility and product diversification are even less important. 10 Source: - UBI Banca on ISTAT data

11 The Italian Cheese Industry PDO Protected Denomination of Origin DOP Denominazione di Origine Protetta Brand of juridical protection assigned by European Union to food products whose characteristics are exclusevely connected to the specific territory of production. The characteristics are related to the natural environment traditional production processes which have been developed over time in a specific geographical area raw materials produced locally. All these factors are designated in a production protocol which has to be complied with by all companies which manufacture DOP products. 11 Source: - UBI Banca on Ismea data

12 The Italian Cheese Industry PGI Protected Geographical Indication IGP Indicazione Geografica Protetta Brand of juridical protection assigned by European Union to food products whose characteristics are exclusevely connected to the specific territory of production. However, while for DOP products the entire production process must be run in the typical geographical area, for PGI products at least one phase of the entire production process must be done in the designated area. The typical phases of production process, as well as other specific aspects, are indicated in a production protocol which has to be complied with by all companies which manufacture PGI products. 12 Source: - UBI Banca on Ismea data

13 The Italian Cheese Industry DOP, IGP e STG food products recognized by European Union (31th december 2013) fresh meat processed meat Cheese other products of animal origin vegetable s and cereals oils and fats others All. 1 bakery products seafood products other products Quality agrifood products DOP IGP STG TOTAL France Germany Greece Italy Netherland Portugal United Kingdo Spain UE ,181 extra-ue World Italy as % of World 3.5% 25.3% 21.4% 10.8% 30.9% 35.0% 16.3% 12.7% 13.5% 4.4% 26.9% 17.1% 4.7% 21.4% 13 Source: - UBI Banca on Ismea data

14 The Italian Cheese Industry 14 Source: - UBI Banca on Ismea data

15 Summary Supply Demand Market External Trade Economic and financial analysis 15

16 The European Dairy Industry Milk Consumption European Union (Year litres per capita) Ireland Finland Estonia United Kingdom Latvia Sweden Denmark Spain Austria European Union (28) Croatia Czech Republic France Germany Italy Hungary Belgium Netherlands Slovakia Poland Lithuania 31,0 61,6 61,6 57,7 52,3 52,1 52,1 48,9 47,8 47,5 46,6 40,9 91,9 89,4 85,6 81,0 74,3 102,1 113,8 137,9 127,3 16

17 The Italian Dairy Industry Cheese Consumption European Union (Year Kilos per capita) 17 Source: International Dairy Federation

18 The Italian Dairy Industry Average monthly expense of Italian families for Milk, cheese and eggs Year 2014 : 59.7 euro (+1% on 2013) ITALY North Centre South and Islands Source: - UBI Banca on ISTAT data

19 The Italian Dairy Industry Daily consumers of dairy products Milk Grana cheese Fresh cheese Fruit yogurt Plain yogurt Hard cheese 19 Source: MIPAAF-SINAB-Bio Bank-IFOAM-Nomisma

20 The Italian Dairy Industry 2.0 Italian domestic consumption of dairy products (% annual change Jan-Sept 2015 / Jan-Sept 2014) % quantity value fresh milk uht milk total cheese hard cheese semi-hard cheese soft cheese yogurt butter 20 Source: Ismea

21 Summary Supply Demand Market External Trade Economic and financial analysis 21

22 Key recent developments End of quota system Russian embargo As of last April, the EU Quota system has been Abolished. Farmers are allowed to Produce freely. This has led to an increase Of quantity supplied Not just in Italy, but At the European level. The Russian government Has imposed tight Restrictions to the Import of dairy Products from the European Union. This has caused a fall In demand at the time Supply is rising As a result of the End of the quota system. The two factors are exterting a strong downward pressure on milk prices across the EU. 22 Source: - UBI Banca on Ismea data

23 The Italian Dairy Industry Indexes of prices at the factory gate Milk price Hard cheese price 23 Source: CRPA-APROLAV

24 The Italian Dairy Industry Milk/Feed Ratio Milk/Feed Ratio is defined as milk price divided by the cost of purchased feed 24 Source: CRPA-APROLAV

25 The Italian Dairy Industry Index of Business Climate Food & Beverage Industry EXPO Effect Dairy Industry 25 Source: Ismea

26 The Italian Dairy Industry Comparative historical overview of the price of some cheeses 26 Source: ZMP, USDA, CCIA A Milano

27 Summary Supply Demand Market External Trade Economic and financial analysis 27

28 The Italian Dairy Industry Export, Import and External balance 5,000 4,000 EXPORT IMPORT BALANCE 3,000 2,000 million 1, ,000-2,000-3, Source: - UBI Banca on ISTAT data

29 The Italian Dairy Industry Export 3,000 2,500 CAGR = +6,7% million 2,000 1,500 +0,3% 1, Jan-Jul 2014 Jan-Jul Source: - UBI Banca on ISTAT data

30 The Italian Dairy Industry Total, domestic and foreign revenue 160 Foreign Sales Total Sales 100 Domestic Sales 80 apr-15 lug-15 gen-08 apr-08 lug-08 ott-08 gen-09 apr-09 lug-09 ott-09 gen-10 apr-10 lug-10 ott-10 gen-11 apr-11 lug-11 ott-11 gen-12 apr-12 lug-12 ott-12 gen-13 apr-13 lug-13 ott-13 gen-14 apr-14 lug-14 ott-14 gen-15 indexes rebased on moving average 12 m 30 Source: - UBI Banca on ISTAT data

31 The Italian Dairy Industry Export Revenue/Total Revenue 12.3% 11.7% 12.6% 13.9% 14.7% 9.2% 10.2% Source: - UBI Banca on ISTAT data

32 Summary Supply Demand Market External Trade Economic and financial analysis 32

33 The Italian Dairy Industry Selected sample of small-medium companies in the Italian Dairy Industry The sample is made up of 117 companies selected according to the following criteria: 1 Companies classified as operating in the Industry of Operation of dairies and cheese making by ISTAT Italian National Statistical Office 2 Company accounts available from 2008 through Detailed company accounts available 4 Sales in 2014 over 5 million 5 Legal form: companies/corporations (excluding cooperatives, consortiums, etc ) The sample of selected companies is closed. 33 Source: - UBI Banca

34 Selected Sample of SME Companies in the Italian Dairy Industry Sales Average sales (million euro) Average sales % annual change 20, % 16, % th housands of 12,000 8,000 ann nual % change 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% 4, % % Sales ('000 (euro ) million) 15,400 14,858 15,910 17,458 17,523 18,215 18, Sales (% change) -3.5% 7.1% 9.7% 0.4% 3.9% 2.1% In the last five years the average sales of sample companies have increased costantly. 34 Source: - UBI Banca

35 Selected Sample of SME Companies in the Italian Dairy & Cheese Industry Profit margins EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin 10.0% 10.0% 7.5% 7.5% 5.0% 5.0% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% NOPAT Margin 5.0% 3.8% 2.5% 1.3% The NOPAT margin of the sample companies has declined as a result of the increase of input prices and the pressure on selling prices due to soft domestic demand. 0.0% Source: - UBI Banca

36 Selected Sample of SME Companies in the Italian Dairy & Cheese Industry Capital turnover Fixed assets as % of sales Net operating working capital as % of sales 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Turnover of invested capital Fixed assets have declined as a % of sales thanks to the growth of the latter, whereas the net operating working capital as a % of sales has remained fairly 1.0 stable. Hence the capital turnover (Sales / Invested capital) has been stable at just over 2x Source: - UBI Banca

37 Selected Sample of SME Companies in the Italian Dairy & Cheese Industry Debt Net Debt (in 000 ) Net Debt / Shareolders Equity 4, thousands of 3,000 2,000 1, Net Debt / EBITDA Net debt of the sample companies has trended down since As a result, the financial structure looks quite strong Source: - UBI Banca

38 Selected Sample of SME Companies in the Italian Dairy & Cheese Industry ROI Return on Invested Capital NOPAT Margin % 2.25% % 1.97% 1.82% 1.90% ROI - Return On Invested Capital % 5.00% 4.00% 3.79% 5.34% 4.83% 4.21% 4.38% 3.00% 2.97% Capital turnover % 1.00% 0.00% The Return on Invested Capital of sample companies has declined in the last years as a consequence of the fall in the NOPAT margin, while the capital turnover ratio has remaind fairly constant Source: - UBI Banca

39 The quest for value in the Italian Food Industry The value chain Value of food products Allocation among sectors in the value chain (2008 and 2011) Import of Final Food Products Value Added Food Industry Value Added Agri Industry Value Added Distribution Value Added Other Sectors Import of Crops Tax Given at 100 the price paid by final customers for food products, in 2011 the added value share of the food industry was only 10,3%, compared with an added value share of 24% for the distribution sector (transport and retail). 39 Source: - UBI Banca on ISMEA/ISTAT data

40 The quest for value in the Italian Food Industry The value chain The profit margin of the Italian Food Industry Food Industry ,3 5,3 2,9 3,0 2,4 2,0 10,6 10,3 Agricolture ,9 1,6 2,7 3,1 0,7 1,1 5,0 6,1 Retail & Transport ,3 10,6 3,1 3,3 10,9 10,2 24,3 24,1 Other sectors ,7 6,1 2,7 2,8 6,8 6,8 15,2 15,7 Salari Wages Ammortamenti Depreciation Profitto Profiteconomico In 2011 the operating pre-tax profit margin of the Italian Food Industry was equal to only 2,0% of the total price paid by final customers. 40 Source: - UBI Banca on ISMEA/ISTAT data

41 The quest for value in the Italian Food Industry New supply contracts How is it possible to make quality food products that provide an adequate economic returns to both raw material producers and food manufacturing companies? Probably by building new supply relationships that cut away trading intermediaries and offer other advantages to both parts Indeed, in recent years in Italy new contracts have been developed to create direct supply channels between farmers and food companies (so called Contratti di fornitura Supply Contracts). 41 Source: - UBI Banca

42 The quest for value in the Italian Food Industry The advantages of direct supply contracts Safer income thanks to pre-defined supply price For the Farmers Higher income thanks to superior quality Better agriculture techniques thanks to collaboration with food processing companies Safer supply Reduction of transport costs For the Food Company Higher quality of supply Made in Italy label Full trackability of products Less volatility of supply prices 42 Source: - UBI Banca

43 The quest for value in the Italian Food Industry Direct supply contract Dairy sector September 2015 Dairy and Cheese Supply 5 Production Organisations AOP Associazione di Organizzazioni di Produttori - Latte Italia 1,000 members 1 million of tons of milk 43 Source: - UBI Banca

44 Conclusions The Italian Food Industry is characterised by small companies whose negotiating power is low with regard to companies operating in the distribution system of food products. However, a small improvement in the profitability of SME sampled in the Italian Food Industry would be sufficient to make it possible for them to create shareholders value, i.e. to bring the level of ROI above that of WACC. Many companies, even the small ones, are trying to achieve this improvement in profitability by increasing the quality of their products. Indeed, quality is considered by the vast majority of Italian food companies as the most important competitive factor. Therefore, the quest for value has become a quest for quality. In this respect, it is becoming increasingly important the creation of direct supply channels between farmers and the food processing companies. On the one side, these contracts facilitate the realisation of integrated Made in Italy supply chain to further elevate the quality of products. On the other side, these direct supply contracts allow both farmers and food processing companies to increase their profitability. 44 Source: - UBI Banca

45 Thank You for Your Attention 45

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