Real Estate Market Observations

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1 Real Estate Market Observations April 2016 R. Scott Dennis Chief Executive Officer INVESCO REAL ESTATE North America: Dallas San Francisco Newport Beach New York Atlanta Europe: London Paris Munich Prague Madrid Luxembourg Warsaw Milan Asia Pacific: Hong Kong Hyderabad Shanghai Tokyo Seoul Singapore Sydney Beijing Thinking about the outlook Different risk levers may be appropriate at different times Capital Market Risk Consider investing with sharp focus on the entry price High capital market risk Low real estate fundamentals risk Low capital market risk Low real estate fundamentals risk Consider general buy/hold where outlook warrants High capital market risk High real estate fundamentals risk Low capital market risk High real estate fundamentals risk Consider general hold/sell where outlook warrants Consider investing with sharp focus on the asset quality Source: Invesco Real Estate as of March 2014 Market Fundamentals Risk 2 1

2 Current Real Estate Market Conditions Factors to Consider 1. Record transaction level. 2. Cap rates are at all time lows. 3. Occupancy rates are at all time highs. 4. Pockets of record construction levels. 5. Public markets foreshadow private markets. 6. Global slowdown. 7. Weakness created by price of oil, volatility in stock market, etc. 8. Year 7 of bull real estate market. 9. Recession? Historically happens 1-3 years after unemployment drops below 5% years from beginning of rate rise to inverted yield curve, then 1.5 years from inverted yield curve to recession. 3 Return Expectations US Respondents to Kingsley Survey Expected Nominal Total Rate of Return (%) Non-US Respondents Real Estate US Stocks Foreign Equities Fixed Income VC/Private Equity Cash Hedge Funds 9.7% 6.6% 7.1% 3.3% 12.3% 1.7% 8.8% 4 Source: Kingsley Associates, Institutional Real Estate, Inc Annual Investor Study 2

3 Investor objectives for real estate Two-thirds of institutional investors target absolute returns of 6-11% per annum Investors targeted annualized absolute returns Series % 2 68% More than % 23% 2 Investors main reasons for investing in real estate Series % 61% 54% 45% 15% 12% 4 32% 32% 1 5% 7% 8% 4% 1% 2 16% 5 Source: Invesco Real Estate based on data from Preqin Investor Outlook as of June 2015 Three Clear Market Peaks in the Last 26 Years NFI-ODCE Quarterly Appreciation Index (Excluding Income) Dec-88 Dec-89 Dec-90 Dec-91 Dec-92 Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 6 Source: NFI-ODCE and Invesco Real Estate as of December 31, 2015 Index January 1978=100 3

4 Market Peaks with Income included NFI-ODCE Quarterly Index (Including Appreciation and Income) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Dec-88 Dec-89 Dec-90 Dec-91 Dec-92 Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Source: NFI-ODCE and Invesco Real Estate as of December 31, 2015 Index January 1978=100 7 The case for long term investing An investment program beginning at previous market peaks If you Invested in ODCE 12% At 2008 Peak 1 At 2008 Peak & Each Subsequent Year 12% At Peak At 2001 Peak & Each Subsequent Year for 10 Years 12% At Peak 1990 Peak & Each Subsequent Year for 10 Years % % 8% 8% 7.94% 7.78% 8% 7.31% 6% 6% 6% 4.25% 4% 4% 4% 2% 2% 2% IRR IRR IRR IRR IRR IRR Source: NFI-ODCE and Invesco Real Estate as of December 31, January 1, January 1, January 1, Hypothetical $100M investment into the NFI-ODCE not including the re-investment of dividends. 4

5 Home country bias Why is property such an outlier? Global Equity Market (%) 1 Global Fixed Income Market (%) 2 3% 11% Australia: $848 BN 2% 2 Australia: $706 BN Rest of Asia: $3,483 BN Rest of Asia: $8,514 BN 25% 61% Americas: $19,801 BN 43% Americas: $18,530 BN Europe: $8,145 BN 35% EMEA: $15,203 BN Equities: Typically 40 to 6 allocated domestically Global Private Real Estate Market (%) 3 28% Australia: $554 BN 2% Rest of Asia: $6,922 BN 34% Americas: $8,311 BN 36% EMEA: $8,729 BN Bonds: Typically 40 to 6 allocated domestically Direct Property: Typically 90 to 10 allocated domestically 9 1 Source: Invesco using data from MSCI World as of December 31, Source: Invesco using data from Barclays Global Aggregate Index as of December 31, Source: Invesco using data DTZ Money Into Property Report as of December 31, 2014 The Case for Global Real Estate Investors have different motivations Why real estate? Large asset class Various ways to access it Income orientation Strong relative performance Diversification with traditional asset classes Why international? Lack of domestic opportunities Different growth drivers Diversification with domestic market Markets comparable in transparency Portfolio risk reduction and return enhancement 10 Source: Invesco Real Estate 5

6 Different measures of the global universe The opportunity set internationally is significant Estimated size of global real estate investment universe (US$ billions) Chart title Total investable universe 1 Core funds 2 Listed 3 5, ,349 7, Total: 24,759 billion Total: 270 billion Total: 1,362 billion United States Asia Pacific Europe 11 Note: 1. Total Investable Universe market size is estimated based on each region s investable stock as defined by latest DTZ Money into Property as of year-end Regional compositions of the IPD Global Quarterly Property Fund Index are estimated based on fund-level Net Asset Value (NAV) as of Q Regional market capitalization of the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Real Estate Index is estimated based on the free float method as of Q Source: Invesco Real Estate based on data from DTZ Money into Property 2015 Report, IPD Global Quarterly Property Fund Index, and FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Real Estate Index Quarterly transaction activity (exc. land) Transaction volumes are at their highest level since the GFC Real Capital Analytics all property transaction volume excluding land (US$ billions, quarterly) $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $ Americas Europe Asia Pacific 4 Quarter Moving Average The figure relates to direct transactions involving all property types except for land. Source: Invesco Real Estate based on data from Real Capital Analytics as of December

7 MSCI IPD real estate total return by country A diversified global portfolio seems to offer a smoother ride over time IPD direct real estate total return for 32 countries and the global (%, local currency) US Global Source: Invesco Real Estate using data from MSCI IPD as of September Global Investor Survey Rates: Attractiveness of Real Estate by Region US and UK/Europe Most Attractive for New Investments Region US Foreign US Canada Mexico Region US Foreign UK Northern Europe Southern Europe Central/Eastern Europe Russia Region US Foreign Brazil South America Central America Region US Foreign Japan Australia/NZ China India Source: Kingsley Associates, Institutional Real Estate, Inc Annual Investor Study 14 7

8 H House View: two prevailing themes Capitalize on near-term growth and prepare for next stage of the cycle 1. Make the most of strong near-term growth Push rent growth Embrace vacancy and short-term rollover in strong locations Implement accretive renovations Build-to-core to capture wholesale value 2. Prepare for future while real estate is strong Sell tactically into robust capital market Increase apartment and retail allocations; reduce office Invest into trends less reliant on the cycle Remain devoted to strong locations and quality assets 15 Cap rates may move higher; full reversion not expected Global QE, other factors should prevent reversion to GFC highs Cap rates per sector (%) Q Q Apartment Industrial Office Retail Source: Invesco Real Estate using data from NCREIF December

9 Fundamentals advancing, rental growth Comparison of cyclical market positions in 2015 and 2016 Percentage of markets in rent growth quadrants in 2015 and % growth % falling 65% growth 6 3% falling rising -6 4% decline 28% rising -6 3% decline Note: The size of the pie represents the percentage of markets that falls within the particular rental growth quadrant. 17 Source: Invesco Real Estate as of September 2015 Asia Pacific 2016 capital value outlook Some city/sector combinations are now in the late stage of a cyclical upswing The outlook for capital values in 2016 for selected Asia Pacific cities Declining Recovering Retail: Singapore Office: Osaka City, Tokyo 23, Taipei, Residential: Tokyo Retail: Melbourne, Beijing, Shanghai, Seoul, Kuala Lumpur Office: Fukuoka, Osaka, Tokyo 5, Bangkok Retail: Perth Industrial: Shanghai Residential: Bangkok Office: Nagoya Retail: Guangzhou, Shenzhen Industrial: Singapore Office: Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, Singapore Retail: Hong Kong Industrial: Melbourne, Sydney Residential: Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur Office: Shanghai Industrial: Brisbane Office: Beijing Retail: Brisbane, Residential: Beijing Industrial: Hong Kong, Beijing, Perth Office: Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney, Guangzhou, Seoul Retail: Sydney Industrial: Tokyo Residential: Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenzhen Office: Mumbai Declining Stabilizing/peaking Recovering Office: Perth Residential: Singapore 18 Note: Market positions are not relative and comparable. Duration of market cycles also varies. Source: Invesco Real Estate as of September

10 The 2016 outlook for Asia Pacific real estate rents Fundamentals continue to improve in almost all Asia Pacific cities and sectors Office Sector Industrial Sector Residential Sector Retail Sector growth Kuala Lumpur Shenzhen Hong Kong Tokyo Guangzhou Beijing, Shanghai, Singapore falling Beijing, Shanghai Hong Kong Singapore Hong Kong Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai Bangkok, Mumbai, Tokyo 5, Tokyo 23 Hong Kong Brisbane, Perth Kuala Lumpur Tokyo Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Seoul Singapore Taipei, Tokyo 5, Seoul Melbourne Bangkok Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth, Sydney Fukuoka, Osaka, Osaka City Sydney Melbourne, Sydney Singapore Kuala Lumpur Nagoya rising Brisbane Perth decline Note: Market positions are not relative and comparable. Duration of market cycles also varies. This does not constitute investment advice. There is no guarantee that the results will be realized. Source: Invesco Real Estate as of November The 2016 European capital value outlook Many city/sector combinations are in early to mid stage of a cyclical upswing The outlook for capital values in 2016 for selected European cities Declining Recovering Office: Dublin, London (City), London (WE) Retail: Dublin Office: Hamburg, Zurich Retail: Prague Office: Munich, Stockholm, Industrial: London, Birmingham, Manchester Gothenburg Office: Berlin Retail: Berlin Office: Zurich Office: Madrid Retail: Hamburg, Stockholm, London, Warsaw Industrial: Dublin Office: Manchester Industrial: Berlin Retail: Moscow Office: Moscow Declining Stabilizing/peakingIndustrial: Milan, Moscow Retail: Frankfurt Recovering Office: Paris (CBD), Barcelona Industrial: Hamburg, Stockholm, Gothenburg, Warsaw Office: Frankfurt, Lyon, Birmingham Retail: Birmingham Industrial: Munich, Frankfurt, Prague Retail: Lyon, Manchester Industrial: Amsterdam Office: Paris (Rive Gauche) Retail: Paris, Milan, Munich Office: Amsterdam Retail: Madrid, Barcelona, Amsterdam Industrial: Paris (IDF), Brussels Industrial: Madrid, Barcelona, Lyon Office: Brussels Retail: Brussels Office: Prague, Milan Office: Warsaw 20 Note: Market positions are not relative and comparable. Duration of market cycles also varies. Source: Invesco Real Estate as of September

11 The Outlook for European Real Estate in 2016 Fundamentals continue to improve in almost all European cities and sectors Office Sector Industrial Sector Residential Sector Retail Sector growth Paris Rive Gauche, Stockholm, Dublin Zurich falling Birmingham, Munich Birmingham, Berlin Amsterdam, Rotterdam, London London West End, London City Dublin Dublin, Stockholm Hamburg Berlin, Warsaw, Prague rising London, Madrid, Manchester, Frankfurt, Paris, Barcelona Frankfurt, Hamburg, Berlin Stockholm, Frankfurt, Munich Lyon, Amsterdam, Brussels, Munich Milan Manchester, Madrid, Moscow Barcelona Hamburg, Milan Madrid, Barcelona Warsaw, Brussels, Lyon Manchester Prague, Paris IDF Moscow, Warsaw Milan, Prague, Paris CBD, Lyon, Amsterdam Brussels decline Note: Market positions are not relative and comparable. Duration of market cycles also varies. This does not constitute investment advice. There is no guarantee that the results will be realized. Source: Invesco Real Estate as of September The 2016 United States capital value outlook Many city/sector combinations are in late recovery stage of a cyclical upswing The outlook for capital values in 2016 for selected United States cities Declining Office: Houston, Apartment: Houston Apartment: Austin, Dallas, Seattle Industrial: Miami, New York, Washington DC Office: Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose Retail: Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles, New York, San Diego, San Jose, Seattle, Washington DC Apartment: Boston, Chicago, Miami, San Diego, San Francisco Industrial: Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, Los Angeles, San Jose Office: Austin, Los Angeles, New York Retail: Boston, Phoenix, San Francisco Recovering Industrial: Houston Office: Washington DC Retail: Houston Industrial: Boston, Dallas, Phoenix, Seattle Office: Seattle Retail: Atlanta, Denver, Miami Office: Atlanta Apartment: Atlanta, Denver, Los Angeles, New York, Orange County, San Jose Industrial: Oakland, Riverside Office: Miami Declining Stabilizing/peaking Recovering Apartment: Washington DC 22 Note: Market positions are not relative and comparable. Duration of market cycles also varies. Source: Invesco Real Estate as of September

12 The 2016 outlook for United States real estate rents Fundamentals continue to improve in almost all US cities and sectors Office sector Industrial sector Residential sector Retail sector growth Chicago, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, Phoenix falling San Francisco, Seattle Baltimore, Chicago, Dallas, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Seattle Boston, Ft. Lauderdale, Ft. Worth, Riverside Baltimore, Minneapolis, Seattle, Tampa Austin, Oakland, San Diego, San Jose Atlanta, Oakland, Orange County Atlanta, Austin, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Phoenix, San Jose, West Palm Beach Boston, Denver, Orange County Denver, New York, Orlando, Portland, Riverside, San Diego, San Francisco Denver, Los Angeles, San Diego Ft. Lauderdale, Riverside, San Antonio, San Diego Los Angeles, Oakland, Orange County Los Angeles, Oakland, Orange County, Orlando, Phoenix, Portland, Seattle Chicago San Francisco, San Jose New York San Jose Austin, Boston, Denver, Miami, New York, Tampa, Washington DC Philadelphia Atlanta, Baltimore Miami, Orlando, Washington DC Dallas Atlanta, Dallas, Los Angeles Miami Houston Houston New York, Newark Washington DC Miami Houston Houston rising Washington DC decline 23 Note: Market positions are not relative and comparable. Duration of market cycles also varies. This does not constitute investment advice. There is no guarantee that the results will be realized. Source: Invesco Real Estate as of November 2015 Conclusions Real estate continues to outperform expectations Strong drivers of performance Nearing end of up cycle? Historically attractive return characteristics through cycles 24 12

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