QUALIFIED PERSON'S REPORT LINC ENERGY, ALASKA
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1 RYDER SCOTT COMPANY PETROLEUM CONSULTANTS QUALIFIED PERSON'S REPORT ON LINC ENERGY, ALASKA Estimated Future Reserves and Income Attributable to Certain Leasehold Interests Escalated Parameters As of December 1, 2015 Colorado License No Managing Senior Vice President RYDER SCOTT COMPANY, L.P. TBPE Firm Registration No. F-1580
2 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE NO. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1 ESTIMATES OF NET RESERVES AND INCOME PROBABLE & POSSIBLE... 2 DISCOUNTED FUTURE NET INCOME... 3 SUMMARY OF OIL AND GAS RESERVES AND RESOURCES... 4 PROPERTY DESCRIPTION... 5 PROPERTY OVERVIEW... 6 SIMULATION MODEL RESERVES INCLUDED IN THIS REPORT RESERVES CLASSIFICATION RESERVES UNCERTAINTY POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF REGULATION METHODOLOGY EMPLOYED FOR ESTIMATES OF RESERVES ASSUMPTIONS & DATA CONSIDERED FOR ESTMATES OF RESERVES FUTURE PRODUCTION RATES HYDROCARBON PRICES COSTS STANDARDS OF INDEPENDENCE AND PROFESSIONAL QUALIFICATION TERMS OF USAGE SIGNATURE PAGE PROFESSIONAL QUALIFICATIONS PETROLEUM RESERVE DEFINITIONS.. 23 FIGURE 1: GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION OF THE UMIAT FIELD... 6 FIGURE 2: STRUCTURE MAP OF LOWER GRANDSTAND... 7 FIGURE 3: GELOGIC CROSS-SECTION OF THE UMIAT FIELD... 8 FIGURE 4: STRATIGRAPHY OF THE UMIAT FIELD... 8 FIGURE 5: UMIAT #18 WELL LOG OVER THE LOWER GRANDSTAND RESERVOIR... 9 FIGURE 6: UMIAT #23H WELL TEST RESULTS FIGURE 7: TOTAL POROSITY VS EFFECTIVE POROSITY CROSS-PLOT FIGURE 8: POROSITY VS PERMEABILITY CROSS-PLOT FIGURE 9: WATER INJECTION DEVELOPMENT PATTERN PLAN FIGURE 10: GAS INJECTION DEVELOPMENT PATTERN PLAN FIGURE 11: PRODUCTION FORECAST FOR WATER INJECTION CASE TABLE 1: SIMULATION MODEL RESULTS COMPARISON 2013 VS CASHFLOW OUTPUT GRAND SUMMARY PROJECTIONS TOTAL PROBABLE RESERVES... 1 TOTAL POSSIBLE RESERVES... 2 LEASE TABLES
3 TBPE REGISTERED ENGINEERING FIRM F-1580 FAX (303) SEVENTEENTH STREET SUITE 1550DENVER, COLORADO TELEPHONE (303) Linc Energy Louisiana, Suite 1500 Houston, Texas Gentlemen: Executive Summary At your request, Ryder Scott Company, L.P. (Ryder Scott) has prepared an estimate of the probable and possible reserves, future production and income attributable to certain leasehold interests of Linc Energy (Linc) as of December 1, The subject properties are located in the state of Alaska. The reserves included herein were estimated based on the definitions and disclosure guidelines contained in the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), World Petroleum Council (WPC), American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG), and Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers (SPEE) Petroleum Resources Management System (SPE-PRMS) based on escalated price and constant cost parameters (SPE-PRMS forecast case), provided by Linc. Such forecasts were based on projected escalations or other forward looking changes to current prices and/or costs as noted. The results of our third party study, completed on November 16, 2015, are presented herein. The properties evaluated by Ryder Scott represent 100 percent of the total net probable and possible liquid hydrocarbon reserves of Linc as of December 1, There are no gas reserves included in this evaluation. Based on information provided by Linc, the third party estimate conducted by Ryder Scott addresses 100 percent of the total probable and 100 percent of the total possible net liquid hydrocarbon reserves. The estimated reserves presented in this report, as of December 1, 2015, are related to hydrocarbon prices based on escalated price parameters. As a result of both economic and political forces, there is significant uncertainty regarding the forecasting of future hydrocarbon prices. The recoverable reserves and the income attributable thereto have a direct relationship to the hydrocarbon prices actually received; therefore, volumes of reserves actually recovered and amounts of income actually received may differ significantly from the estimated quantities presented in this report. The results of this study are summarized below LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 4600HOUSTON, TEXAS TEL (713) FAX (713) TH STREET S.W. SUITE 600 CALGARY, ALBERTA T2R 1J4 TEL (403) FAX (403)
4 Page 2 ESCALATED PARAMETERS Estimated Net Reserves and Income Data Certain Leasehold Interests of Linc Energy As of December 1, 2015 Total Total Probable Reserves Possible Reserves Undeveloped Undeveloped Net Remaining Reserves Oil/Condensate MBarrels 98,954 45,725 Income Data ($M) Future Gross Revenue $11,297,091 $5,030,509 Deductions 5,059,374 1,798,113 Future Net Income (FNI) $ 6,237,717 $3,232,396 Discounted 10% $ 1,035,124 $ 557,225 Liquid hydrocarbons are expressed in standard 42 gallon barrels and shown herein as thousands of barrels (MBarrels). In this report, the revenues, deductions, and income data are expressed as thousands of U.S. dollars (M$). The estimates of the reserves, future production, and income attributable to properties in this report were prepared using the economic software package Aries TM Petroleum Economics and Reserves Software, a copyrighted program of Halliburton. The program was used at the request of Linc. Ryder Scott has found this program to be generally acceptable, but notes that certain summaries and calculations may vary due to rounding and may not exactly match the sum of the properties being summarized. Furthermore, one line economic summaries may vary slightly from the more detailed cash flow projections of the same properties, also due to rounding. The rounding differences are not material. The future gross revenue is after the deduction of production taxes. The deductions incorporate the normal direct costs of operating the wells, ad valorem taxes, recompletion costs, development costs, production facility and pipeline costs. The future net income is before the deduction of state and federal income taxes and general administrative overhead, and has not been adjusted for outstanding loans that may exist nor does it include any adjustment for cash on hand or undistributed income. Liquid hydrocarbon reserves account for approximately 100 percent of the total future gross revenue from probable reserves reported herein. Liquid hydrocarbon reserves account for approximately 100 percent of the total future gross revenue from possible reserves reported herein. The discounted future net income shown above was calculated using a discount rate of 10 percent per annum compounded monthly. Future net income was discounted at four other discount rates which were also compounded monthly. These results are shown in summary form as follows.
5 Page 3 Discount Rate Percent Discounted Future Net Income ($M) As of December 1, 2015 Total Total Probable Possible Reserves Reserves 5 $2,359,398 $1, $ 460,102 $ $ 176,586 $ $ 27,720 $ The results shown above are presented for your information and should not be construed as our estimate of fair market value.
6 Page 4 Summary of Oil and Gas Reserves and Resources Name of Asset/Country: Linc Energy Umiat Alaska/United States of America Category Gross Attributable to Licence (MMbbl / Bcf) Net Attributable to Issuer Remarks (MMbbl / Bcf) Change from previous update (%) Reserves Oil Reserves 1P 0 0 N/A 2P % 3P % 1P: Proved 2P: Proved + Probable 3P: Proved + Probable + Possible MMbbl: Millions of barrels Bcf: Billions of cubic feet Name of Qualified Person: James L. Baird \s\ James L. Baird Date: Professional Society Affiliation / Membership: Colorado Licensed Professional Engineer No
7 Page 5 Working Interest (%) Use of Property Expiration Date No. Lease ID Lessor Sale Tract No. & Legal Description Acreage Net Revenue Interest (%) Tract 2002-L-016 T. 1 N., R. 1 W., Umiat Meridian, Alaska - Section 19: acres; Section 20: acres; Section 21: acres; Section 22: acres; Section 23: acres; Section 24: acres; Section 25: acres; Section 26: acres; Section 27: acres; Section 28: acres; Section 29: acres; Section 30: acres; Section 31: acres; Section 32: acres; Section 33: acres; Section 34: acres; Section 35: acres; Section 36: acres. This Tract 2002-L-016 contains 11, acres, more or less. Acreage calculated using a mathematical formula in conjunction with a GIS program. Renaissance Umiat, LLC 87.5% Property Description ALASKA OIL AND GAS LEASES 11, /31/2022 Unless HBU AA Tract 991-L-005 9/30/2019 Unless HBU oil and gas Renaissance Umiat, LLC 100.0% 6, T. 1 S., R. 1 E., Umiat Meridian, Alaska - Section 5: acres; Section 6: acres; and T. 1 S., R. 1 W., Umiat Meridian, Alaska - Section 1: acres; Section 2: acres; Section 3: acres; Section 4: acres; Section 5: acres; Section 6: acres; Section 7: acres; Section 8: acres; Section 9: acres; Section 10: acres; Section 15: acres; Section 16: acres; Section 17: acres; Section 18: acres; Section 19: acres. This Tract 991-L-005 contains 6, acres, more or less. Acreage calculated using a mathematical formula in conjunction with a GIS program. Tract FH U.S.A. (BLM) Renaissance Umiat, LLC 80.0% Renaissance Umiat, LLC 80.0% Renaissance Umiat, LLC 100.0% oil and gas U.S.A. (BLM) AA Renaissance Umiat, LLC 100.0% oil and gas /31/2016 Unless HBU T. 1 S., R. 1 W., Umiat Meridian, Alaska - Section 1: acres; Section 2: acres; Section 3: acres; Section 10: acres; Section 11: acres; Section 15: acres. This tract contains acres, more or less. Surveyed by protraction, the bed of the Colville River. State of Alaska ADL
8 Page 6 Property Overview Historical and Geologic Background for Umiat Field The Umiat Field is located in the southeastern portion of the National Petroleum Reserve (NPRA) on the central part of the North Slope on the leading edge of the Brooks Range Fold Belt. It is north of the Arctic circle, approximately 100 miles southwest of Prudhoe Bay, 180 miles southeast of Point Barrow, and 92 miles due west of the Trans-Alaskan Pipeline System (TAPS). Figure 1 - Geographic Location of the Umiat Field Umiat field is located on a shallow thrust belt structure associated with the Cretaceous Brooks Range organic event to the south. It occurs on the eastern boundary of NPRA and could be easily mapped in the field by U.S.G.S. geologists, prior to any regional seismic surveys. Natives collected oil from surface seeps to substitute for whale oil in their lamps. The seeps attracted the Navy to conduct a summer drilling program in the late 1940 s into the early 1950 s. Eleven wells were drilled to various depths and were cored and tested. Several wells were logged with primitive SP, resistivity, and GR (rare) tools. In 1979, an additional well, Husky Seabee No. 1, was drilled downstructure to 15,611, as part of the U.S.G.S. evaluation program operated by Husky Oil. Logs over the shallow reservoir interval in the Seabee well are of poor quality due to the large hole size. Potential targets for the well were deeper so the surface section was not optimized for proper petrophysical evaluation. The best quality, porous and permeable sands are informally named the Upper and Lower Grandstand members of the middle Cretaceous Nanushuk Group. The Lower Grandstand is Linc Energy s primary target, as the sands are thicker and more continuous than those of the Upper Grandstand (shallower, secondary objective later in field development).
9 Page 7 Both the Upper and Lower Grandstand are very shallow compared to most reservoirs around the world. Challenges exist due to low pressure and ice (permafrost) in the pore system of the sandstones. A chilled mud system is now used during drilling to mitigate formation damage from melting and refreezing within the permafrost. This was a learning from the original Navy drilling program. A significant portion of the Upper Grandstand in Umiat lies within the permafrost zone. As presently mapped with very limited well control, 50-60% of the Lower Grandstand reservoir is within the permafrost interval. Figure 2: 2013 interpretation of the top of the Lower Grandstand Linc Energy drilled two wells: Umiat 18 in the winter of 2013 and Umiat 23H in the winter of Umiat 18 was successfully cored through the entire Lower Grandstand with 100% recovery. The core was extensively sampled and tested at Weatherford Labs in Houston. The core was saturated with light (38 api) oil, but the well would not flow, even after exhaustive production testing. Core summation of fluids analyses confirmed relatively lower oil saturations in Umiat 18. Also, only 58 of the 316 thick Lower Grandstand reservoir occurred below the permafrost in Umiat 18. Umiat 23H was drilled as a horizontal, inverted well design through the upper (best) of three Lower Grandstand sands. Oil was recovered at a sustained rate of up to 200 BOPD (Figure 6). The entire Lower Grandstand interval in Umiat 23H was below the permafrost contact, and no significant water was encountered during testing.
10 Page 8 Figure 3: Geologic Cross Section of Umiat Field Figure 4: Stratigraphic Section of the Umiat Field
11 Page 9 Figure 5: Umiat No Well Log over Lower Grandstand
12 Page 10 Figure 6: Umiat No. 23H March, 2014 Well Test Results SIMULATION MODEL STUDY The September 12, 2013 report issued by Ryder Scott Company (RSC) relied on a highresolution sector-based numerical simulation model for the estimation of reserves. In 2014, Linc hired PRA Consultants to develop a full-field numerical simulation model for the Lower Grand Stand (LGS) formation. This new model is based on the latest available geologic information and is believed to be more realistic regarding the extent of the reservoir. The following table highlights the differences among the models:
13 Page 11 Lower Lower Grandstand Grandstand Ryder-Scott PRA 1/ Acre 2014 Full Field Sector-Base Reservoir Model Model Parameters Parameter Parameter Model Size (Cells) 60 x 120 x x 45 x 34 Total Number of Cells 180, ,450 Cell Dimensions (feet) 50 x 50 x ' x 450' x 10' Number of Active Cells 90, ,447 Average Depth (feet) ' Reservoir thickness (feet) ' Reservoir Net to Gross Ratio 1 1 Average Porosity (percent) Average Permeability (md) K v /K h Ration (fraction) Rock Compressibility (1/psi) 6.00E E-06 Reservoir Temperature ( o F) Initialization Parameters Parameter Parameter Initial Reservoir Pressure ' ss GOC (feet-ss) WOC (feet-ss) 2, OOIP (MSTB) 9, ,266 OGIP (MMSCF) ,587 Oil Density (lb/ft 3 ) Water Density (lb/ft 3 ) Gas Density (air=1) Oil Gravity ( o API) Bubble Point Pressure (P b ) (psia) Oil Formation Volume Factor at P b (rb/stb) Oil Viscosity at P b Initial Gas-Oil Ratio (scf/stb) Initial Water Saturation (percent) K ro S w con 1 1 K rg S lcon K rw S orw Well Limits /Constraints Parameter Parameter Minimum Producer Bottom Hole Pressure (psia) Maximum Injector Bottom Hole Pressure (psia) The OOIP in the RSC sector-based model reflects a small portion of the reservoir, so it is difficult to compare it with the new PRA model. The PRA full-field model initializes at 302 million STBO for the OOIP estimate. The updated geological characterization of the PRA model is believed to have captured the sand quality variation due to depositional changes within the Lower Grand Stand. Effective porosity and permeability/porosity relationships were updated through petrophysical characterization work, as can be seen in the next two figures.
14 Page 12 Figure 7: Cross-plot of Total Porosity vs Effective Porosity
15 Page 13 Figure 8: Cross-plot of Porsity vs Permeability However, none of the numerical simulation models that were developed to date account for the natural fractured nature of the reservoir. Thus, the vertical communication among various strata is expected to be better than what is calculated through the simulation models. The primary use of the LGS full-field model was to evaluate various development scenarios that can improve the Net Present Value (NPV) of the project. A number of required drilling pads and wells were studied for water injection and gas injection cases. Figure 9 and Figure 10 present potential development scenarios for water injection and gas injection patterns given the existing knowledge and modeling capabilities.
16 Page 14 Figure 9: Water Injection Development Pattern The existing development plan calls for five (5) drilling pads, each with six (6) to nine (9) possible wells to cover the LGS reservoir. The total plan calls for 35 wells, 24 producers and 11 injectors. The previous schematic highlights the locations of the injection wells for the water injection scenario. The simulation model was the basis for the probable reserve case. Using the same well placement choices, the following schematic highlights the locations of the injection wells for the gas injection scenario. Figure 10: Gas Injection Development Pattern
17 Page 15 As can be seen in these schematics shown in Figures 9 and 10 there are infinite number of combinations for well directions, well lengths, number of pads and wells possible for the field development. It is very likely that better solutions will be found to improve the project economics. From the percent oil recovery perspective, the results of the model predictions are more pessimistic than the earlier (2013) RSC model. For example for the gas injection case, the RSC model recovery estimate was ~44%, while the PRA model estimate is ~36%. The PRA model also estimates ~36% recovery for water injection. Overall, for the LGS formation, the PRA model with the aforementioned development scenario predicts recovery of 110 million STB of oil over an estimated field productive life of 30 years. The following plot shows the anticipated oil production rate under the water injection scenario. As can be seen, after 30 years of operation the predicted oil production rate is approximately 4000 barrels per day. Hence, there is ample room to optimize the project economics by accelerating the deferred production. This was achieved by projecting the modeled forecast on a 3.5% decline to a 50 year life. Figure 11: Production Forecast for Water Injection Case
18 Page 16 Reserves Included in This Report The probable and possible reserves included herein conform to the definitions of reserves sponsored and approved by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), the World Petroleum Council (WPC), the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) and the Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers (SPEE) as set forth in the 2007 SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE Petroleum Resources Management System (SPE-PRMS) based on escalated price and constant cost parameters (SPE- PRMS forecast case). The estimated quantities of reserves presented in this report, based on escalated price and cost parameters (SPE-PRMS forecast case), may differ significantly from the quantities which would be estimated using constant price and cost parameters (SPE-PRMS constant case). An abridged version of the SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE reserves terms and definitions used herein are included as attachments to this report and entitled Petroleum Reserves Definitions. Reserves Classification Recoverable petroleum resources may be classified according to the SPE-PRMS into one of three principal resource classifications: prospective resources, contingent resources, or reserves. Discovered petroleum resources may be classified as either contingent resources or as reserves depending on the chance that if a project is implemented it will reach commercial producing status (i.e. chance of commerciality). The distinction between various classifications of resources and reserves relates to their discovery status and increasing chance of commerciality. Commerciality is not solely determined based on the economic status of a project which refers to the situation where the income from an operation exceeds the expenses involved in, or attributable to, that operation. Conditions addressed in the determination of commerciality also include technological, economic, legal, environmental, social, and governmental factors. While economic factors are generally related to costs and product prices, the underlying influences include, but are not limited to, market conditions, transportation and processing infrastructure, fiscal terms and taxes. At Linc s request, this report addresses only the reserves attributable to the properties evaluated herein and not the resources, if any. Reserves Uncertainty All reserve estimates involve an assessment of the uncertainty relating the likelihood that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the estimated quantities determined as of the date the estimate is made. The uncertainty depends chiefly on the amount of reliable geologic and engineering data available at the time of the estimate and the interpretation of these data. Estimates will generally be revised only as additional geologic or engineering data becomes available or as economic conditions change. Reserves are those quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable by application of development projects to known accumulations from a given date forward under defined conditions. The relative degree of uncertainty may be conveyed by placing reserves into one of two principal classifications, either proved or unproved. Proved oil and gas reserves are those quantities of petroleum which, by analysis of geoscience and engineering data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be commercially recoverable, from a given date forward, from known reservoirs and under defined economic conditions, operating methods, and government regulations. Proved reserves are not included in this report although the short term well test of the Umiat #23H well produced hydrocarbons at a rate of 200 bopd. At the current time, there is not an approved plan for primary production which includes state and governmental approvals, development wells, production facility & infrastructure, access roads, pipeline, marketing
19 Page 17 contracts or other related investments. The Proved reserve term is referenced here for comparison to Probable and Possible reserves. Unproved reserves are less certain to be recovered than proved reserves and may be further sub-classified as probable and possible reserves to denote progressively increasing uncertainty in their recoverability. Probable reserves are those additional reserves which analysis of geoscience and engineering data indicate are less likely to be recovered than proved reserves but more certain to be recovered than possible reserves. For probable reserves, it is equally likely that actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater than or less than the sum of the estimated proved plus probable reserves (cumulative 2P volumes). Possible reserves are those additional reserves which analysis of geoscience and engineering data indicate are less likely to be recovered than probable reserves. For possible reserves, the total quantities ultimately recovered from the project have a low probability to exceed the sum of the proved plus probable plus possible reserves (cumulative 3P volumes). The reserves included herein were estimated using deterministic methods and presented as incremental quantities. Under the deterministic incremental approach, discrete quantities of reserves are estimated and assigned separately as proved, probable or possible based on their individual level of uncertainty. The reserves and income quantities attributable to the different reserve classifications that are included herein have not been adjusted to reflect these varying degrees of risk associated with them and thus are not comparable. Petroleum quantities classified as reserves should not be aggregated with each other without due consideration of the significant differences in the criteria associated with their classification. Moreover, estimates of reserves may increase or decrease as a result of future operations, effects of regulation by governmental agencies or geopolitical risks. As a result, the estimates of oil and gas reserves have an intrinsic uncertainty. The reserves included in this report are therefore estimates only and should not be construed as being exact quantities. They may or may not be actually recovered, and if recovered, the revenues therefrom and the actual costs related thereto could be more or less than the estimated amounts. Possible Effects of Regulation Linc s operations may be subject to various levels of governmental controls and regulations. These controls and regulations may include matters relating to land tenure and leasing, the legal rights to produce hydrocarbons, drilling and production practices, environmental protection, marketing and pricing policies, royalties, various taxes and levies including income tax and are subject to change from time to time. Such changes in governmental regulations and policies may cause volumes of reserves actually recovered and amounts of income actually received to differ significantly from the estimated quantities. The reserves reported herein are limited to the period prior to expiration of current lease contracts providing the legal right to produce or a revenue interest in such production unless there is a reasonable expectation that an extension, a renewal or a new contract will be granted. A reasonable expectation is noted as representing a high degree of confidence that an extension, a renewal or new contract will be granted. The prices and economic return received for these net volumes can vary significantly based on the terms of these contracts. Therefore, when applicable, Ryder Scott reviewed the fiscal terms of such contracts including the Alaska State ACES tax structure as recently modified and ratified by Alaska SB 21. This complex tax structure and its impacts were calculated by Linc and not independently verified in detail. The ACES structure had been in place 5 years when SB21 was signed on May 21, 2013, with the hope of stimulating oil and gas investment. The changes outlined in SB21 took effect January 1, 2014 and are always subject to revision and amendment.
20 Page 18 The estimates of reserves presented herein were based upon a detailed 2014 study of the properties in which Linc owns an interest; however, we have not made any field examination of the properties. No consideration was given in this report to potential environmental liabilities that may exist nor were any costs included for potential liability to restore and clean up damages, if any, caused by past operating practices. Methodology Employed for Estimates of Reserves The estimation of reserve quantities involves two distinct determinations. The first determination results in the estimation of the quantities of recoverable oil and gas and the second determination results in the estimation of the uncertainty associated with those estimated quantities. The process of estimating the quantities of recoverable oil and gas reserves relies on the use of certain generally accepted analytical procedures. These analytical procedures fall into three broad categories or methods: (1) performance-based methods, (2) volumetric-based methods and (3) analogy. These methods may be used singularly or in combination by the reserve evaluator in the process of estimating the quantities of reserves. Reserve evaluators must select the method or combination of methods which in their professional judgment is most appropriate given the nature and amount of reliable geoscience and engineering data available at the time of the estimate, the established or anticipated performance characteristics of the reservoir being evaluated, and the stage of development or producing maturity of the property. In many cases, the analysis of the available geoscience and engineering data and the subsequent interpretation of this data may indicate a range of possible outcomes in an estimate, irrespective of the method selected by the evaluator. When a range in the quantity of recoverable hydrocarbons is identified, the evaluator must determine the uncertainty associated with the incremental quantities of those recoverable hydrocarbons. If the quantities are estimated using the deterministic incremental approach, the uncertainty for each discrete incremental quantity is addressed by the reserve category assigned by the evaluator. Therefore, it is the categorization of incremental recoverable quantities that addresses the inherent uncertainty in the estimated quantities reported. Estimates of reserve quantities and their associated categories or classifications may be revised in the future as additional geoscience or engineering data become available. Furthermore, estimates of the recoverable quantities and their associated categories or classifications may also be revised due to other factors such as changes in economic conditions, results of future operations, effects of regulation by governmental agencies or geopolitical or economic risks as previously noted herein. The reserves for the properties included herein were estimated by performance methods, volumetric methods, analogy and reservoir simulation methods, or a combination of methods. In general, reserves attributable to wells and/or reservoirs were estimated by simulation methods. These performance methods include, but may not be limited to, well analysis, material balance and reservoir simulation which utilized extrapolations of historical well test and pressure data available through September, 2015 in those cases where such data were considered to be definitive. The data used in this analysis were furnished to Ryder Scott by Linc and were considered sufficient for the purpose therof. These methods were used where there were inadequate long term historical performance data to establish a definitive trend and where the use of production performance data as a basis for the estimates was considered to be inappropriate. Reserves attributable to non-producing and undeveloped reserves included herein were estimated by the reservoir simulation method, analogy, or a combination of methods. The volumetric analysis utilized pertinent well and seismic data furnished to Ryder Scott by Linc or which we have obtained from public data sources that were available through September, The data utilized from
21 Page 19 the well and seismic data incorporated into our volumetric analysis were considered sufficient for the purpose thereof. Assumptions and Data Considered for Estimates of Reserves To estimate recoverable oil and gas reserves and related future net cash flows, we consider many factors and assumptions including, but not limited to, the use of reservoir parameters derived from geological, geophysical and engineering data which cannot be measured directly, economic criteria based on the cost and price assumptions as noted herein, and forecasts of future production rates. Under the SPE-PRMS Section and Table 3, proved reserves must be demonstrated to be commercially recoverable under defined economic conditions, operating methods and governmental regulations from a given date forward. We have applied the same criteria for commercially recoverable to the probable and possible reserves included in this report. Linc has informed us that they have furnished us all of the material accounts, records, geological and engineering data, and reports and other data required for this investigation. In preparing our forecasts of future production and income, we have relied upon data furnished by Linc with respect to property interests owned, production and well tests from examined wells, normal direct costs of operating the wells or leases, other costs such as transportation and/or processing fees, ad valorem and production taxes, recompletion and development costs, development plans, abandonment costs after salvage, product prices, geological structural and isochore maps, well logs, core analyses, and pressure measurements. Ryder Scott reviewed such factual data for its reasonableness; however, we have not conducted an independent verification of the data supplied by Linc. In summary, we consider the assumptions, data, methods and analytical procedures used in this report appropriate for the purpose hereof, and we have used all such methods and procedures that we consider necessary and appropriate to prepare the estimates of reserves herein. Future Production Rates Forecasts of future production rates are built upon historical performance from wells that were tested when drilled between 1944 and 2014 and geologic descriptions that allow an updated full field simulation of hypothetical wells to be drilled in the future. For reserves not yet on production, sales were estimated to commence at an anticipated date furnished by Linc. Test data and other related information were used to estimate the anticipated initial production rates for those wells or locations that are not currently producing. Wells or locations that are not currently producing may start producing earlier or later than anticipated in our estimates due to unforeseen factors causing a change in the timing to initiate production. Such factors may include delays due to weather, the availability of rigs, the sequence of drilling, completing and/or recompleting wells and/or constraints set by regulatory bodies. The future production rates from wells currently on production or wells or locations that are not currently producing may be more or less than estimated because of changes including, but not limited to, reservoir performance, operating conditions related to surface facilities, compression and artificial lift, pipeline capacity and/or operating conditions, producing market demand and/or allowables or other constraints set by regulatory bodies.
22 Page 20 Hydrocarbon Prices The future hydrocarbon price parameters and escalations used in this report were specified by Linc and are noted below. Estimates of future price parameters have been revised in the past because of changes in governmental policies, changes in hydrocarbon supply and demand, and variations in general economic conditions. The price parameters used in this report may be revised in the future for similar reasons. Oil and Condensate The future ANS West Coast price is estimated to average $67.49/bbl for the remainder of 2015, $66.03 for 2016, $86.66 for 2017, $89.06 for 2018, $97.51 for 2019, $ for 2020, $ for 2021, $ for 2022, $ for 2023, $ for 2024 and held constant thereafter. Product prices which were actually used for each property reflect adjustments for gravity, quality, local conditions, gathering and transportation fees and/or distance from market, referred to herein as differentials. The differentials used in the preparation of this report were furnished to us by Linc. The differentials furnished by Linc were reviewed by us for their reasonableness using information furnished by Linc for this purpose. The effects of derivative instruments designated as price hedges of oil and gas quantities are not reflected in our estimated individual property evaluations. Costs Operating costs for the leases and wells in this report are based on the operating expense estimates provided by Linc and include only those costs directly applicable to the leases or wells. A net cost of $12/bbl was applied to future wells based on traditional cost for existing North Slope of Alaska producers and held constant for the life of the project. No deduction was made for loan repayments, interest expenses, or exploration and development prepayments that were not charged directly to the leases or wells. Development costs were furnished to us by Linc and are based on authorizations for expenditure for the proposed work or actual costs for similar projects Linc s estimates of zero abandonment costs after salvage value for onshore properties were used in this report. Ryder Scott has not performed a detailed study of the abandonment costs or the salvage value and makes no warranty for Linc s estimate. Because of the direct relationship between volumes of probable and possible undeveloped reserves and development plans, we include in the probable and possible undeveloped category only reserves assigned to undeveloped locations that we have been assured will definitely be drilled. Linc has assured us of their intent and ability to proceed with the development activities included in this report, and that they are not aware of any legal, regulatory or political obstacles that would significantly alter their plans. Current costs were held constant throughout the life of the properties. Standards of Independence and Professional Qualification Ryder Scott is an independent petroleum engineering consulting firm that has been providing petroleum consulting services throughout the world since Ryder Scott is employee-owned and maintains offices in Houston, Texas; Denver, Colorado; and Calgary, Alberta, Canada. We have over
23 Page 21 eighty engineers and geoscientists on our permanent staff. By virtue of the size of our firm and the large number of clients for which we provide services, no single client or job represents a material portion of our annual revenue. We do not serve as officers or directors of any privately-owned or publicly-traded oil and gas company and are separate and independent from the operating and investment decision-making process of our clients. This allows us to bring the highest level of independence and objectivity to each engagement for our services. Ryder Scott actively participates in industry related professional societies and organizes an annual public forum focused on the subject of reserves evaluations and SEC regulations. Many of our staff have authored or co-authored technical papers on the subject of reserves related topics. We encourage our staff to maintain and enhance their professional skills by actively participating in ongoing continuing education. Prior to becoming an officer of the Company, Ryder Scott requires that staff engineers and geoscientists have received professional accreditation in the form of a registered or certified professional engineer's license or a registered or certified professional geoscientist's license, or the equivalent thereof, from an appropriate governmental authority or a recognized self-regulating professional organization. We are independent petroleum engineers with respect to Linc. Neither we nor any of our employees have any financial interest in the subject properties and neither the employment to do this work nor the compensation is contingent on our estimates of reserves for the properties which were reviewed. The results of this study, presented herein, are based on technical analysis conducted by teams of geoscientists and engineers from Ryder Scott. The professional qualifications of the undersigned, the technical person primarily responsible for overseeing the evaluation of the reserves information discussed in this report, are included as an attachment to this letter. Terms of Usage This report was prepared for the exclusive use and sole benefit of Linc Energy and may not be put to other use without our prior written consent for such use. The data and work papers used in the preparation of this report are available for examination by authorized parties in our offices. Please contact us if we can be of further service. Very truly yours, RYDER SCOTT COMPANY, LP. TBPE Firm Registration No. F-1580 JLB /pl James L. Baird, P.E. Colorado License No Managing Senior Vice President
24 Professional Qualifications of Primary Technical Person The conclusions presented in this report are the result of technical analysis conducted by teams of geoscientists and engineers from Ryder Scott Company, L.P. James Larry Baird was the primary technical person responsible for overseeing the estimate of the reserves. Mr. Baird, an employee of Ryder Scott Company, L.P. (Ryder Scott) since 2006, is a Managing Senior Vice President and also serves as Manager of the Denver office, responsible for coordinating and supervising staff and consulting engineers of the company in ongoing reservoir evaluation studies worldwide. Before joining Ryder Scott, Mr. Baird served in a number of engineering positions with Gulf Oil Corporation ( ), Northern Natural Gas ( ) and Questar Exploration & Production ( ). For more information regarding Mr. Baird s geographic and job specific experience, please refer to the Ryder Scott Company website at Mr. Baird earned a Bachelor of Science degree in Petroleum Engineering from the University of Missouri at Rolla in 1970 and is a registered Professional Engineer in the States of Colorado and Utah. He is also a member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers. In addition to gaining experience and competency through prior work experience, several state Boards of Professional Engineers require a minimum number of hours of continuing education annually, including at least one hour in the area of professional ethics, which Mr. Baird fulfills as part of his registration in four states. As part of his continuing education, Mr. Baird attends internally presented training as well as public forums relating to the definitions and disclosure guidelines contained in the United States Securities and Exchange Commission Title 17, Code of Federal Regulations, Modernization of Oil and Gas Reporting, and Final Rule released January 14, 2009 in the Federal Register. Mr. Baird attends additional hours of formalized external training covering such topics as the SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE Petroleum Resources Management System, reservoir engineering and petroleum economics evaluation methods, procedures and software and ethics for consultants. Based on his educational background, professional training and more than 45 years of practical experience in the estimation and evaluation of petroleum reserves, Mr. Baird has attained the professional qualifications as a Reserves Estimator and Reserves Auditor set forth in Article III of the Standards Pertaining to the Estimating and Auditing of Oil and Gas Reserves Information promulgated by the Society of Petroleum Engineers as of February 19, 2007.
25 PETROLEUM RESERVES DEFINITIONS As Adapted From: PETROLEUM RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SPE-PRMS) Sponsored and Approved by: SOCIETY OF PETROLEUM ENGINEERS (SPE), WORLD PETROLEUM COUNCIL (WPC) AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF PETROLEUM GEOLOGISTS (AAPG) SOCIETY OF PETROLEUM EVALUATION ENGINEERS (SPEE) PREAMBLE Reserves are those quantities of petroleum which are anticipated to be commercially recovered from known accumulations from a given date forward under defined conditions. All reserve estimates involve some degree of uncertainty. The uncertainty depends chiefly on the amount of reliable geologic and engineering data available at the time of the estimate and the interpretation of these data. The relative degree of uncertainty may be conveyed by placing reserves into one of two principal classifications, either proved or unproved. Unproved reserves are less certain to be recovered than proved reserves and may be further sub-classified as probable and possible reserves to denote progressively increasing uncertainty in their recoverability. Estimation of reserves is done under conditions of uncertainty. The method of estimation is called deterministic if a single best estimate of reserves is made based on known geological, engineering, and economic data. The method of estimation is called probabilistic when the known geological, engineering, and economic data are used to generate a range of estimates and their associated probabilities. Identifying reserves as proved, probable, and possible has been the most frequent classification method and gives an indication of the probability of recovery. Because of the differences in uncertainty, caution should be exercised when aggregating reserves of different classifications. Reserves estimates will generally be revised as additional geologic or engineering data becomes available or as economic conditions change. Reserves may be attributed to either natural energy or improved recovery methods. Improved recovery methods include all methods for supplementing natural energy or altering natural forces in the reservoir to increase ultimate recovery. Examples of such methods are pressure maintenance, cycling, waterflooding, thermal methods, chemical flooding, and the use of miscible and immiscible displacement fluids. Other improved recovery methods may be developed in the future as petroleum technology continues to evolve. Reserves may be attributed to either conventional or unconventional petroleum accumulations under the SPE-PRMS. Petroleum accumulations are considered as either conventional or unconventional based on the nature of their in-place characteristics, extraction method applied, or degree of processing prior to sale. Examples of unconventional petroleum accumulations include coalbed or coalseam methane (CBM/CSM), basin-centered gas, shale gas, gas hydrates, natural bitumen and oil shale deposits. These unconventional accumulations may require specialized extraction technology and/or significant processing prior to sale. The SPE-PRMS acknowledges unconventional petroleum accumulations as reserves regardless of their in-place characteristics, the extraction method applied, or the degree of processing required.
26 PETROLEUM RESERVES DEFINITIONS Page 2 Reserves do not include quantities of petroleum being held in inventory and may be reduced for usage, processing losses and/or non-hydrocarbons that must be removed prior to sale. SPE-PRMS RESERVES DEFINITIONS In March 2007, the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), World Petroleum Council (WPC), American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG), and Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers (SPEE) jointly approved the Petroleum Resources Management System ( SPE-PRMS ). The SPE- PRMS consolidates, builds on, and replaces guidance previously contained in the 2000 Petroleum Resources Classification and Definitions and the 2001 Guidelines for the Evaluation of Petroleum Reserves and Resources publications. The intent of the SPE, WPC, AAPG and SPEE in approving additional classifications beyond proved reserves is to facilitate consistency among professionals using such terms. In presenting these definitions, none of these organizations are recommending public disclosure of reserves classified as unproved. Public disclosure of the quantities classified as unproved reserves is left to the discretion of the countries or companies involved and should not be construed as replacing guidelines for public disclosures under the guidelines established by regulatory and/or other governmental agencies. Reference should be made to the full SPE-PRMS for the complete definitions and guidelines as the following definitions, descriptions and explanations rely wholly or in part on excerpts from the SPE- PRMS document (direct passages excerpted from the SPE-PRMS document are denoted in italics herein). RESERVES (SPE-PRMS DEFINITIONS) The SPE-PRMS Section 1.1 and Table 1 define reserves as follows: Reserves. Reserves are those quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable by application of development projects to known accumulations from a given date forward under defined conditions. Reserves must satisfy four criteria: they must be discovered, recoverable, commercial and remaining based on the development project(s) applied. Reserves are further subdivided in accordance with the level of certainty associated with the estimates and may be sub-classified based on project maturity and/or characterized by their development and production status. ADDITIONAL TERMS USED IN RESERVES EVALUATIONS (SPE-PRMS DEFINITIONS) The SPE-PRMS Sections 2.3, 2.3.4, 2.4 and Appendix A define the following terms as follows: Improved recovery. Improved Recovery is the extraction of additional petroleum, beyond Primary Recovery, from naturally occurring reservoirs by supplementing the natural forces in the reservoir. It includes waterflooding and gas injection for pressure maintenance, secondary processes, tertiary processes and any other means of supplementing natural reservoir recovery processes. Improved recovery also includes thermal and chemical processes to improve the in-situ mobility of viscous forms of petroleum. (Also called Enhanced Recovery.) Improved recovery projects must meet the same Reserves commerciality criteria as primary recovery projects. There should be an expectation that the project will be economic and that the entity
27 PETROLEUM RESERVES DEFINITIONS Page 3 has committed to implement the project in a reasonable time frame (generally within 5 years; further delays should be clearly justified). If there is significant project risk, forecast incremental recoveries may be similarly categorized but should be classified as Contingent Resources. The judgment on commerciality is based on pilot testing within the subject reservoir or by comparison to a reservoir with analogous rock and fluid properties and where a similar established improved recovery project has been successfully applied. Incremental recoveries through improved recovery methods that have yet to be established through routine, commercially successful applications are included as Reserves only after a favorable production response from the subject reservoir from either (a) a representative pilot or (b) an installed program, where the response provides support for the analysis on which the project is based. Similar to improved recovery projects applied to conventional reservoirs, successful pilots or operating projects in the subject reservoir or successful projects in analogous reservoirs may be required to establish a distribution of recovery efficiencies for non-conventional accumulations. Such pilot projects may evaluate both the extraction efficiency and the efficiency of unconventional processing facilities to derive sales products prior to custody transfer. These incremental recoveries in commercial projects are categorized into Proved, Probable, and Possible Reserves based on certainty derived from engineering analysis and analogous applications in similar reservoirs. Commercial. When a project is commercial, this implies that the essential social, environmental and economic conditions are met, including political, legal, regulatory and contractual conditions. In addition, a project is commercial if the degree of commitment is such that the accumulation is expected to be developed and placed on production within a reasonable time frame. While 5 years is recommended as a benchmark, a longer time frame could be applied where for example, development of economic projects are deferred at the option of the producer for, among other things, market-related reasons, or to meet contractual or strategic objectives. In all cases, the justification for classification as Reserves should be clearly documented. PROVED RESERVES (SPE-PRMS DEFINITIONS) The SPE-PRMS Section and Table 3 define proved oil and gas reserves as follows: Proved oil and gas reserves. Proved Reserves are those quantities of petroleum, which by analysis of geoscience and engineering data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be commercially recoverable, from a given date forward, from known reservoirs under defined economic conditions, operating methods, and government regulations. If deterministic methods are used, the term reasonable certainty is intended to express a high degree of confidence that the quantities will be recovered. If probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 90% probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimate. The area of the reservoir considered as Proved includes: (1) the area delineated by drilling and defined by fluid contacts, if any, and (2) adjacent undrilled portions of the reservoir that can reasonably be judged as continuous with it and commercially productive on the basis of available geoscience and engineering data.
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