KMA-APCC-CNU updates for dynamical seasonal climate prediction
|
|
|
- Ashlie Mason
- 7 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Nov 2016, WGSIP18 KMA-APCC-CNU updates for dynamical seasonal climate prediction Jee-Hoon Jeong Chonnam National University Page 1 JH JEONG
2 I. Soil moisture initialization for KMA operational seasonal forecast (CNU-UNIST team) KMA-Met Office Joint Seasonal Forecasting System KMA: the same configuration with Met Offices. Only, initial condition of weather model is different Initial Field ERA-interim soil moisture for hindcast, But climatology for forecast ICE OCEAN KMA NWP(N512L70) ICE OCEAN Met Office NWP Hindcast Forecast GloSea5 GloSea5 Ensemble Prediction Results Joint System Results Page 2 JH JEONG
3 2016 summer heatwave in Korea/East Asia Nearly 1-month long heatwave in Korea/East Asia this summer Dry condition from spring (JULES-JRA55 soil moisture) Dry condition atmospheric high pressure system led such a mega heatwave Page 3 JH JEONG
4 Soil moisture initialization from offline JULES(GloSea5 s LSM) run JULES-JRA55 soil moisture is quite consistent with JULES-observation soil moisture Atmospheric forcing's from JRA-55 reanalysis Precipitation is adjusted to meet observed monthly precipitation Scaling of soil moisture in considering bias between JULES and GloSea5 Hindcast was performed to examine the impact on skill Page 4 JH JEONG
5 Skill (R) comparison: GloSea5 hindcast before 1~30 days mean Tsfc forecast skill (R) for 1996~2009 after Page 5 JH JEONG UNIST Climate Environment Modeling Laboratory
6 II. KMA/NIMS-SNU: stratospheric influences on dynamical climate prediction for East Asia Polar Vortex There is a strong correlation between polar vortex and Eurasian temperature Anomalously warm Dec 2015 Was associated with strong polar vortex Work led by SNU: prof S.-W. Son, KMA/NIMS: Dr. H.-S. Kang Page 6 JH JEONG
7 II. KMA/NIMS-SNU: stratospheric influences on dynamical climate prediction for East Asia QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) MJO signal strengthened during easterly phase of QBO MJO-extratropic teleconnection is strengthened during easterly phase of MJO Page 7 JH JEONG Higher MJO prediction skill during EQBO
8 II. Skill of polar vortex and QBO in GloSea5 forecast Polar vortex QBO Polar vortex: 1-2 month predictable Polar vortex: predictable more than 6 months Two factors will be utilized for winter seasonal climate prediction by KMA (dynamical-statistical) Page 8 JH JEONG
9 III. updates for APCC Page 9
10 DMME: SCM Forecast (2008JFM-2015DJF) SCM: Simple Composite MME (Multi-Model Ensemble) Improvements of prediction skill Real time forecast APCC MME Hindcast skill of each year s MME Page 10 The skill of forecasts has continuously increased. - SCM MME outperforms individual models
11 Experimental: Prob. ENSO Category & Strength Forecast OBS 3M Mean Nino 3.4 Index: Definition: based on 3-month mean Nino 3.4 index (+1.5 o C /+1.0 o C /+0.5/-0.5 o C/-1.0 o C /- 1.5 o C : Strong/Moderate/Weak El Nino/La Nina) Parametric estimator using a Gaussian fitting method for categorical probabilities Simple composite of the individual model s probabilities with equal weightings Forecast Page 11 To become fully operational in 2017
12 Development of in-house seasonal forecast model : Seamless Coupled Prediction System (SCoPS) OASIS3-MCT Tau over water LH, SH Radiation fluxes Total water fluxes SST Surface current ECHAM v5.3 T159, L31 Once a day (36 variables) Height, Wind Humidity, Temperature Radiation fluxes Rainfall, Snowfall Ice fraction Ice surface temperature Albedo POP v deg, L40 SST, SSS Surface current SSH gradient Ice freeze/melt heat fluxes CICE v4.1 Ice fraction Stress between ocean and ice Melting fresh water flux Salt flux Net ocean-ice heat flux Shortwave ice to ocean Page 12 12
13 Development of in-house seasonal forecast model : Seamless Coupled Prediction System (SCoPS) Integrated Atmosphere-Ocean Initialization Scheme 3-D Atmospheric Initialization Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF) CFSR atmosphere variable XBT & ARGO ocean variable Hindcast Simulation Total Ensemble members : 10 Time lagged forecasting with perturbation ensemble spread by EAKF ATM/OCN/ICE ICs: the 1 st, 5 th of every month (5 perturbation initial data) Hindcast period: (33 years) / Forecast period: 2015-present 7month integration Page 13
14 Multi Model Subseasonal forecast of BSISO (Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation) The canonical northward propagating component The AMS pre-monsoon and onset component Page 14 Lee, J.-Y., B. Wang, M. C. Wheeler, X. Fu, D.E. Waliser, and I.-S. Kang, 2013: Real-time multivariate indices for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region. Clim. Dyn., 40,
15 Multi Model Subseasonal forecast (from July 2013) : BSISO (Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation, Lee et al. 2013) Page 15 Participating models NCEP BoM ECMWF UKMO CWB CFS GFS POAMA EPS MOGREPS-15 CWB EPS T119
16 Multi Model Subseasonal forecast (from July 2013) : User friendly information from BSISO forecast Heavy Rainfall Probability Forecast (left) and its Skill Assessment over Mekong river basin (right) ECMWF ECMWF Page 16
17 Page 17 Thanks!
18 Experimental: Forecast skill for ENSO Category ENSO Category Forecast: , All seasons ENSO Intensity Forecast: , All seasons E: El Nino N: ENSO-neutral L: La Nina SE: Strong El Nino ME: Moderate El Nino WE: Weak El Nino SL : Strong La Nina ML: Moderate La Nina WL: Weak La Nina Page 18 To become operational in 2017
19 Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecast : South Pacific Ocean seasonal TCs track density forecast Contour: Seasonal TC track density in each grid Shaded: Anomaly compared to the climatology Page 19
20 Predictability of East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) in APCC MME Forecast System Selection of EAWM Index Predictability of EAWM in climate models Prediction skill of EAWM Index Prediction skill in hindcasts Fig 1. The temporal correlation coefficients between the observed and simulated normalized DJF-mean EAWM indices for the period Dashed lines denote the threshold values for the 95% and 99% significance levels. Representability of the T2m ano. related to EAWM Fig 3. Correlation coefficients between observed and simulated indices from POAMA for different lead months. Red solid line and blue dotted line indicate original and modified index, respectively. Prediction skill in real-time forecasts Page 20 Fig 2. Scatter plots of the normalized EAWM index vs DJFmean surface temperature anomalies averaged over East Asia ( E, N) for the period based on the EAWM index defined by Wang and Chen (2014). The strong (weak) EAWM year with cold (warm) winter defined in Table 3 is shown at the lower right (left) corner with blue (red) Model hindcast period : Model forecast period :
21 Development of in-house seasonal forecast model : Seamless Coupled Prediction System (SCoPS) East Asian Summer Monsoon East Asian Winter Monsoon Li and Yang (2010) COR: 0.24/0.46 Wang and Fan (1999) Lee et al. (2014) COR: 0.44/0.69 COR: 0.51/0.74 COR: 0.23/0.58 SCoPS predicts EASM and EAWM related circulation better than APCC CCSM3 21 Page 21
22 Skill assessment for BSISO real-time forecast Page 22 - ECMWF produces skillful BSISO1 forecasts up to a lead time of close to 30 days, while the same level of skill in other models extends only to a lead time of about 10 days. - Predictable period of BSISO2 is about 8 ~ 20 days.
23 Multi Model Subseasonal forecast (from July 2013) : Possible application of BSISO forecast BSISO forecasts service Probability forecast of heavy rainfall estimated by BSISO forecasts Week-1 forecast Week-2 forecast Flood Inundation Mapping.. BSISO index = f (Amplitude, Phase) Page 23
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 May 2011
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 May 2011 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 29 June 2015
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 29 June 2015 Outline Summary Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
A Comparison of the Atmospheric Response to ENSO in Coupled and Uncoupled Model Simulations
JANUARY 2009 N O T E S A N D C O R R E S P O N D E N C E 479 A Comparison of the Atmospheric Response to ENSO in Coupled and Uncoupled Model Simulations BHASKAR JHA RSIS, Climate Prediction Center, Camp
Monsoon Variability and Extreme Weather Events
Monsoon Variability and Extreme Weather Events M Rajeevan National Climate Centre India Meteorological Department Pune 411 005 rajeevan@imdpune.gov.in Outline of the presentation Monsoon rainfall Variability
Improving Hydrological Predictions
Improving Hydrological Predictions Catherine Senior MOSAC, November 10th, 2011 How well do we simulate the water cycle? GPCP 10 years of Day 1 forecast Equatorial Variability on Synoptic scales (2-6 days)
IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATION CENTRE
IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATION CENTRE CLIMATE WATCH REF: ICPAC/CW/No.32 May 2016 EL NIÑO STATUS OVER EASTERN EQUATORIAL OCEAN REGION AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS OVER THE GREATER HORN OF FRICA DURING
Queensland rainfall past, present and future
Queensland rainfall past, present and future Historically, Queensland has had a variable climate, and recent weather has reminded us of that fact. After experiencing the longest drought in recorded history,
Mechanisms of an extraordinary East Asian summer monsoon event in July 2011
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39,, doi:10.1029/2011gl050378, 2012 Mechanisms of an extraordinary East Asian summer monsoon event in July 2011 Kyong-Hwan Seo, 1 Jun-Hyeok Son, 1 Seung-Eon Lee, 1 Tomohiko
Fundamentals of Climate Change (PCC 587): Water Vapor
Fundamentals of Climate Change (PCC 587): Water Vapor DARGAN M. W. FRIERSON UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON, DEPARTMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES DAY 2: 9/30/13 Water Water is a remarkable molecule Water vapor
Decadal predictions using the higher resolution HiGEM climate model Len Shaffrey, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading
Decadal predictions using the higher resolution HiGEM climate model Len Shaffrey, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading Dave Stevens, Ian Stevens, Dan Hodson, Jon Robson, Ed Hawkins,
Relation between Indian monsoon variability and SST
Relation between Indian monsoon variability and SST V. Krishnamurthy 1,2 and Ben P. Kirtman 1,3 1 Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Institute of Global Environment and Society, Inc. Calverton, Maryland
CLIVAR WGSIP. Strategy for Development of Seasonal Prediction
CLIVAR WGSIP Strategy for Development of Seasonal Prediction Adam Scaife and Ben Kirtman CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction April 2011 CLIVAR WGSIP Working Group on Seasonal to
SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOLAR CYCLE DURING THE LAST 130 YEARS
SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOLAR CYCLE DURING THE LAST 130 YEARS Kalevi Mursula, Ville Maliniemi, Timo Asikainen ReSoLVE Centre of Excellence Department of
How To Understand Cloud Radiative Effects
A Climatology of Surface Radiation, Cloud Cover, and Cloud Radiative Effects for the ARM Tropical Western Pacific Sites. Chuck Long, Casey Burleyson, Jennifer Comstock, Zhe Feng September 11, 2014 Presented
Proposals of Summer Placement Programme 2015
Proposals of Summer Placement Programme 2015 Division Project Title Job description Subject and year of study required A2 Impact of dual-polarization Doppler radar data on Mathematics or short-term related
Decadal/Interdecadal variations in ENSO predictability in a hybrid coupled model from 1881-2000
Decadal/Interdecadal variations in ENSO predictability in a hybrid coupled model from 1881-2000 Ziwang Deng and Youmin Tang Environmental Science and Engineering, University of Northern British Columbia,
Real-time monitoring and forecast of the West African monsoon intraseasonal variability: from 2011 to 2013
Real-time monitoring and forecast of the West African monsoon intraseasonal variability: from 2011 to 2013 P.Peyrillé 1, R. Roehrig 1, F. Couvreux 1, E. Poan 1, J.-P. Lafore 1, N. Chapelon 4, O. Ndiaye
Jessica Blunden, Ph.D., Scientist, ERT Inc., Climate Monitoring Branch, NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D, Acting Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D., Director,, and Chair of the Subcommittee on Global Change Research Jessica
MOGREPS status and activities
MOGREPS status and activities by Warren Tennant with contributions from Rob Neal, Sarah Beare, Neill Bowler & Richard Swinbank Crown copyright Met Office 32 nd EWGLAM and 17 th SRNWP meetings 1 Contents
The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation A changing climate leads to changes in extreme weather and climate events 2 How do changes
Projections, Predictions, or Trends?
Projections, Predictions, or Trends? The challenges of projecting changes to fire regimes under climate change Bec Harris 9-11 th October, 2013 What are we looking for? Aims differ, and are more or less
A Project to Create Bias-Corrected Marine Climate Observations from ICOADS
A Project to Create Bias-Corrected Marine Climate Observations from ICOADS Shawn R. Smith 1, Mark A. Bourassa 1, Scott Woodruff 2, Steve Worley 3, Elizabeth Kent 4, Simon Josey 4, Nick Rayner 5, and Richard
Performance Metrics for Climate Models: WDAC advancements towards routine modeling benchmarks
Performance Metrics for Climate Models: WDAC advancements towards routine modeling benchmarks Peter Gleckler* Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison () LLNL, USA * Representing WDAC and
Improving Dynamical Prediction of Seasonal Mean Monsoon & Extended Range Prediction of Active-Break Spells
Annual Cycle Improving Dynamical Prediction of Seasonal Mean Monsoon & Extended Range Prediction of Active-Break Spells M Rajeevan National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Gadanki Inputs: Dr Suryachandra
Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong
Diurnal and Semi-diurnal Variations of Rainfall in Southeast China Judy Huang and Johnny Chan Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre School of Energy and Environment City University of Hong Kong
Temporal variation in snow cover over sea ice in Antarctica using AMSR-E data product
Temporal variation in snow cover over sea ice in Antarctica using AMSR-E data product Michael J. Lewis Ph.D. Student, Department of Earth and Environmental Science University of Texas at San Antonio ABSTRACT
Indian Ocean and Monsoon
Indo-French Workshop on Atmospheric Sciences 3-5 October 2013, New Delhi (Organised by MoES and CEFIPRA) Indian Ocean and Monsoon Satheesh C. Shenoi Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services
South Africa. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. A. Karmalkar 1, C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles South Africa A. Karmalkar 1, C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate
Item 4.1: Atmospheric Observation Panel for Climate Recent climatic events, observing-system changes and report from 17 th Session of AOPC
SC-XX, 4-7 September 2012 Item 4.1: Atmospheric Observation Panel for Climate Recent climatic events, observing-system changes and report from 17 th Session of AOPC Adrian Simmons European Centre for Medium-Range
Climate Change in North Carolina
Climate Change in North Carolina Dr. Chip Konrad Director of the The Southeast Regional Climate Center Associate Professor Department of Geography University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill The Southeast
II. Related Activities
(1) Global Cloud Resolving Model Simulations toward Numerical Weather Forecasting in the Tropics (FY2005-2010) (2) Scale Interaction and Large-Scale Variation of the Ocean Circulation (FY2006-2011) (3)
Climate Extremes Research: Recent Findings and New Direc8ons
Climate Extremes Research: Recent Findings and New Direc8ons Kenneth Kunkel NOAA Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites North Carolina State University and National Climatic Data Center h#p://assessment.globalchange.gov
Armenian State Hydrometeorological and Monitoring Service
Armenian State Hydrometeorological and Monitoring Service Offenbach 1 Armenia: IN BRIEF Armenia is located in Southern Caucasus region, bordering with Iran, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. The total territory
CGC1D1: Interactions in the Physical Environment Factors that Affect Climate
Name: Date: Day/Period: CGC1D1: Interactions in the Physical Environment Factors that Affect Climate Chapter 12 in the Making Connections textbook deals with Climate Connections. Use pages 127-144 to fill
Development of an Integrated Data Product for Hawaii Climate
Development of an Integrated Data Product for Hawaii Climate Jan Hafner, Shang-Ping Xie (PI)(IPRC/SOEST U. of Hawaii) Yi-Leng Chen (Co-I) (Meteorology Dept. Univ. of Hawaii) contribution Georgette Holmes
STRATEGY & Parametrized Convection
for WP4.1.3 // meeting, 22 Sept 2005 morning, Francoise Guichard some inferences from the EUROCS project EUROCS: european project on cloud systems in NWP/climate models European Component of GCSS (GEWEX
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Review of possible impact on agricultural production in 2014/15 following the increased probability of occurrence
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Review of possible impact on agricultural production in 2014/15 following the increased probability of occurrence EL NIÑO Definition and historical episodes El Niño
Evaluating the Impact of Cloud-Aerosol- Precipitation Interaction (CAPI) Schemes on Rainfall Forecast in the NGGPS
Introduction Evaluating the Impact of Cloud-Aerosol- Precipitation Interaction (CAPI) Schemes on Rainfall Forecast in the NGGPS Zhanqing Li and Seoung-Soo Lee University of Maryland NOAA/NCEP/EMC Collaborators
An Assessment of Errors in the Simulation of Atmospheric Interannual Variability in Uncoupled AGCM Simulations
2204 J O U R N A L O F C L I M A T E VOLUME 21 An Assessment of Errors in the Simulation of Atmospheric Interannual Variability in Uncoupled AGCM Simulations ARUN KUMAR NOAA/Climate Prediction Center,
SST-Forced Atmospheric Variability in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model
VOLUME 18 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 1 OCTOBER 2005 SST-Forced Atmospheric Variability in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model ARUN KUMAR, QIN ZHANG, PEITAO PENG, AND BHASKAR JHA Climate Prediction Center,
Supporting Online Material for
www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/science.1182274/dc1 Supporting Online Material for Asian Monsoon Transport of Pollution to the Stratosphere William J. Randel,* Mijeong Park, Louisa Emmons, Doug Kinnison,
Future Projections of Precipitation Characteristics in East Asia Simulated by the MRI CGCM2
ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, VOL. 22, NO. 4, 2005, 467 478 Future Projections of Precipitation Characteristics in East Asia Simulated by the MRI CGCM2 Akio KITOH, Masahiro HOSAKA, Yukimasa ADACHI,
Cloud-SST feedback in southeastern tropical Atlantic anomalous events
Click Here for Full Article JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 112,, doi:10.1029/2006jc003626, 2007 Cloud-SST feedback in southeastern tropical Atlantic anomalous events Bohua Huang 1,2 and Zeng-Zhen
Real-time Ocean Forecasting Needs at NCEP National Weather Service
Real-time Ocean Forecasting Needs at NCEP National Weather Service D.B. Rao NCEP Environmental Modeling Center December, 2005 HYCOM Annual Meeting, Miami, FL COMMERCE ENVIRONMENT STATE/LOCAL PLANNING HEALTH
Forecast of July-August-September 2015 season rainfall in the Sahel and other regions of tropical North Africa: updated forecast
Forecast of July-August-September 2015 season rainfall in the Sahel and other regions of tropical North Africa: updated forecast Issued 2 July 2015 1 FORECAST OF JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER 2015 SEASON RAINFALL
Developing Continuous SCM/CRM Forcing Using NWP Products Constrained by ARM Observations
Developing Continuous SCM/CRM Forcing Using NWP Products Constrained by ARM Observations S. C. Xie, R. T. Cederwall, and J. J. Yio Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore, California M. H. Zhang
Evaluation of clouds in GCMs using ARM-data: A time-step approach
Evaluation of clouds in GCMs using ARM-data: A time-step approach K. Van Weverberg 1, C. Morcrette 1, H.-Y. Ma 2, S. Klein 2, M. Ahlgrimm 3, R. Forbes 3 and J. Petch 1 MACCBET Symposium, Royal Meteorological
GCMs with Implicit and Explicit cloudrain processes for simulation of extreme precipitation frequency
GCMs with Implicit and Explicit cloudrain processes for simulation of extreme precipitation frequency In Sik Kang Seoul National University Young Min Yang (UH) and Wei Kuo Tao (GSFC) Content 1. Conventional
Hong Kong Observatory Summer Placement Programme 2015
Annex I Hong Kong Observatory Summer Placement Programme 2015 Training Programme : An Observatory mentor with relevant expertise will supervise the students. Training Period : 8 weeks, starting from 8
Real-time monitoring and forecast of intraseasonal variability during the 2011 African Monsoon
Real-time monitoring and forecast of intraseasonal variability during the 211 African Monsoon R. Roehrig 1, F. Couvreux 1, E. Poan 1, P. Peyrillé 1, J.-P. Lafore 1, O. Ndiaye 2, A. Diongue-Niang 2, F.
Super-parametrization in climate and what do we learn from high-resolution
Super-parametrization in climate and what do we learn from high-resolution Marat Khairoutdinov Stony Brook University USA ECMWF Annual Seminar, 1-4 September 2015 scales-separation parameterized convection
Extraseasonal ensemble numerical predictions of winter climate over China
Chinese Science Bulletin 2003 Vol. 48 No. 19 2121 2125 Extraseasonal ensemble numerical predictions of winter climate over China LANG Xianmei, WANG Huijun & JIANG Dabang Nansen-Zhu International Research
The Recent Storms and Floods in the UK. February 2014
The Recent Storms and Floods in the UK February 2014 Recent_Storms_Briefing_Final - 1 Crown copyright 2008 Summary This winter the UK has been affected very severely by an exceptional run of winter storms,
Selecting members of the QUMP perturbed-physics ensemble for use with PRECIS
Selecting members of the QUMP perturbed-physics ensemble for use with PRECIS Isn t one model enough? Carol McSweeney and Richard Jones Met Office Hadley Centre, September 2010 Downscaling a single GCM
Tropical Stationary Wave Response to ENSO: Diabatic Heating Influence on the Indian summer monsoon
Tropical Stationary Wave Response to ENSO: Diabatic Heating Influence on the Indian summer monsoon Youkyoung Jang 2*, David M. Straus 1, 2 1 Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Science College
Titelmasterformat durch Klicken. bearbeiten
Evaluation of a Fully Coupled Atmospheric Hydrological Modeling System for the Sissili Watershed in the West African Sudanian Savannah Titelmasterformat durch Klicken June, 11, 2014 1 st European Fully
Impact of microphysics on cloud-system resolving model simulations of deep convection and SpCAM
Impact of microphysics on cloud-system resolving model simulations of deep convection and SpCAM Hugh Morrison and Wojciech Grabowski NCAR* (MMM Division, NESL) Marat Khairoutdinov Stony Brook University
Data Assimilation and Operational Oceanography: The Mercator experience
www.mercator.eu.org Data Assimilation and Operational Oceanography: The Mercator experience Benoît Tranchant btranchant@mercator-ocean.fr And the Mercator-Ocean Assimilation Team (Marie Drevillon, Elisabeth
Experience on District Level Agro Met Services LS Rathore
Experience on District Level Agro Met Services LS Rathore Head Agro Met Services India Meteorological Department & Advisor, Ministry of Earth Sciences Government of India Out Line of Presentation Conceptual
Suvarchal Kumar Cheedela
Single Column Models and Low Cloud Feedbacks Suvarchal Kumar Cheedela Berichte zur Erdsystemforschung Reports on Earth System Science 148 2014 Berichte zur Erdsystemforschung 148 2014 Single Column Models
2. The map below shows high-pressure and low-pressure weather systems in the United States.
1. Which weather instrument has most improved the accuracy of weather forecasts over the past 40 years? 1) thermometer 3) weather satellite 2) sling psychrometer 4) weather balloon 6. Wind velocity is
Very High Resolution Arctic System Reanalysis for 2000-2011
Very High Resolution Arctic System Reanalysis for 2000-2011 David H. Bromwich, Lesheng Bai,, Keith Hines, and Sheng-Hung Wang Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center The Ohio State University
The 2015-2016 El Niño event: expected impact on food security and main response scenarios in East and Southern Africa
The 2015-2016 El Niño event: expected impact on food security and main response scenarios in East and Southern Africa Update 27 th October 2015 Felix Rembold, Olivier Leo, Thierry Nègre, Neil Hubbard 2015
Distribution of seasonal rainfall in the East Asian monsoon region
TAC-0/679 For Author s Correction Only Theor. Appl. Climatol. 000, 1 18 (2002) DOI 10.1007/s00704-002-0679-3 1 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China 2 Atmospheric Sciences
Can latent heat release have a negative effect on polar low intensity?
Can latent heat release have a negative effect on polar low intensity? Ivan Føre, Jon Egill Kristjansson, Erik W. Kolstad, Thomas J. Bracegirdle and Øyvind Sætra Polar lows: are intense mesoscale cyclones
IMPACT OF SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY-AMERENUE QUANTUM WEATHER PROJECT MESONET DATA ON WRF-ARW FORECASTS
IMPACT OF SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY-AMERENUE QUANTUM WEATHER PROJECT MESONET DATA ON WRF-ARW FORECASTS M. J. Mueller, R. W. Pasken, W. Dannevik, T. P. Eichler Saint Louis University Department of Earth and
Lecture 4: Pressure and Wind
Lecture 4: Pressure and Wind Pressure, Measurement, Distribution Forces Affect Wind Geostrophic Balance Winds in Upper Atmosphere Near-Surface Winds Hydrostatic Balance (why the sky isn t falling!) Thermal
The ozone hole indirect effect: Cloud-radiative anomalies accompanying the poleward shift of the eddy-driven jet in the Southern Hemisphere
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL., 1 5, doi:1.1/grl.575, 1 The ozone hole indirect effect: Cloud-radiative anomalies accompanying the poleward shift of the eddy-driven jet in the Southern Hemisphere Kevin
8.5 Comparing Canadian Climates (Lab)
These 3 climate graphs and tables of data show average temperatures and precipitation for each month in Victoria, Winnipeg and Whitehorse: Figure 1.1 Month J F M A M J J A S O N D Year Precipitation 139
CHAPTER 6 The atmosphere in motion
CHAPTER 6 The atmosphere in motion This chapter provides a broad view of why the wind blows at the surface and in the atmosphere in order to explain the patterns of mean wind flow around the globe. Descriptively
ATMS 310 Jet Streams
ATMS 310 Jet Streams Jet Streams A jet stream is an intense (30+ m/s in upper troposphere, 15+ m/s lower troposphere), narrow (width at least ½ order magnitude less than the length) horizontal current
Application of Numerical Weather Prediction Models for Drought Monitoring. Gregor Gregorič Jožef Roškar Environmental Agency of Slovenia
Application of Numerical Weather Prediction Models for Drought Monitoring Gregor Gregorič Jožef Roškar Environmental Agency of Slovenia Contents 1. Introduction 2. Numerical Weather Prediction Models -
Climate Change in Mexico implications for the insurance and reinsurance market
Climate Change in Mexico implications for the insurance and reinsurance market Eberhard Faust Geo Risks Research Munich Reinsurance Company 1980 April 2008: Billion & Ten Billion Dollar Losses The costliest
TOPIC: CLOUD CLASSIFICATION
INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, DELHI DEPARTMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE ASL720: Satellite Meteorology and Remote Sensing TERM PAPER TOPIC: CLOUD CLASSIFICATION Group Members: Anil Kumar (2010ME10649) Mayank
THE INFLUENCE OF LA NINA ON AFRICAN RAINFALL
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY Int. J. Climatol. 20: 1761 1776 (2000) THE INFLUENCE OF LA NINA ON AFRICAN RAINFALL S.E. NICHOLSON* and J.C. SELATO Florida State Uni ersity, Department of Meteorology,
Develop a Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model with Data Assimilation Capabilities
Develop a Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model with Data Assimilation Capabilities W. Carlisle Thacker Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway Miami, FL, 33149 Phone: (305)
A decadal solar effect in the tropics in July August
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 66 (2004) 1767 1778 www.elsevier.com/locate/jastp A decadal solar effect in the tropics in July August Harry van Loon a, Gerald A. Meehl b,, Julie M.
Heavy Rainfall from Hurricane Connie August 1955 By Michael Kozar and Richard Grumm National Weather Service, State College, PA 16803
Heavy Rainfall from Hurricane Connie August 1955 By Michael Kozar and Richard Grumm National Weather Service, State College, PA 16803 1. Introduction Hurricane Connie became the first hurricane of the
How does snow melt? Principles of snow melt. Energy balance. GEO4430 snow hydrology 21.03.2006. Energy flux onto a unit surface:
Principles of snow melt How does snow melt? We need energy to melt snow/ ice. GEO443 snow hydrology 21.3.26 E = m L h we s K = ρ h = w w we f E ρ L L f f Thomas V. Schuler t.v.schuler@geo.uio.no E energy
Climate Change on the Prairie:
Climate Change on the Prairie: A Basic Guide to Climate Change in the High Plains Region - UPDATE Global Climate Change Why does the climate change? The Earth s climate has changed throughout history and
DoD Interest in Seasonal & Sub-seasonal Climate Prediction
DoD Interest in Seasonal & Sub-seasonal Climate Prediction Maj Ryan Harris Director of Operations 14th Weather Squadron Asheville, NC Approved for Public Release Distribution Unlimited 31 March 2015 Overview
Domestic Policy Framework on Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Resources: Case Study for India. Working Together to Respond to Climate Change
Domestic Policy Framework on Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Resources: Case Study for India Working Together to Respond to Climate Change WATER ACCOUNTING OF INDIA S TOTAL WATER RESOURCES Unutilizable
What the Heck are Low-Cloud Feedbacks? Takanobu Yamaguchi Rachel R. McCrary Anna B. Harper
What the Heck are Low-Cloud Feedbacks? Takanobu Yamaguchi Rachel R. McCrary Anna B. Harper IPCC Cloud feedbacks remain the largest source of uncertainty. Roadmap 1. Low cloud primer 2. Radiation and low
Water & Climate Review
Water & Climate Review 1. The cross section below shows the direction of air flowing over a mountain. Points A and B are at the same elevation on opposite sides of the mountain. 4. The graph below shows
Baudouin Raoult, Iryna Rozum, Dick Dee
ECMWF contribution to the EU funded CHARME Project: A Significant Event Viewer tool Matthew Manoussakis Baudouin Raoult, Iryna Rozum, Dick Dee 5th Workshop on the use of GIS/OGC standards in meteorology
Orbital-Scale Climate Change
Orbital-Scale Climate Change Climate Needed for Ice Age Warm winter and non-frozen oceans so lots of evaporation and snowfall Cool summer so that ice does not melt Ice Age Model When ice growing ocean
Increasing Atmospheric Poleward Energy Transport with Global Warming
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL.???, XXXX, DOI:1.129/, Increasing Atmospheric Poleward Energy Transport with Global Warming Yen-Ting Hwang, 1 Dargan M. W. Frierson, 1 Most state-of-the-art global climate
REGIONAL CLIMATE AND DOWNSCALING
REGIONAL CLIMATE AND DOWNSCALING Regional Climate Modelling at the Hungarian Meteorological Service ANDRÁS HORÁNYI (horanyi( horanyi.a@.a@met.hu) Special thanks: : Gabriella Csima,, Péter Szabó, Gabriella
Tropical Cloud Population
Tropical Cloud Population Before Satellites Visual Observation View from and aircraft flying over the South China Sea Radiosonde Data Hot tower hypothesis Riehl & Malkus 1958 Satellite Observations Post
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2015
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2015 We anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons
Drought in the Czech Republic in 2015 A preliminary summary
Drought in the Czech Republic in 2015 A preliminary summary October 2015, Prague DISCLAIMER All data used in this preliminary report are operational and might be a subject of change during quality control.
Georgia Performance Standards Framework for Natural Disasters 6 th Grade
The following instructional plan is part of a GaDOE collection of Unit Frameworks, Performance Tasks, examples of Student Work, and Teacher Commentary. Many more GaDOE approved instructional plans are
The Oceans Role in Climate
The Oceans Role in Climate Martin H. Visbeck A Numerical Portrait of the Oceans The oceans of the world cover nearly seventy percent of its surface. The largest is the Pacific, which contains fifty percent
Understanding and Improving CRM and GCM Simulations of Cloud Systems with ARM Observations. Final Report
Understanding and Improving CRM and GCM Simulations of Cloud Systems with ARM Observations Final Report Principal Investigator: Xiaoqing Wu, Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State
ESCI 107/109 The Atmosphere Lesson 2 Solar and Terrestrial Radiation
ESCI 107/109 The Atmosphere Lesson 2 Solar and Terrestrial Radiation Reading: Meteorology Today, Chapters 2 and 3 EARTH-SUN GEOMETRY The Earth has an elliptical orbit around the sun The average Earth-Sun
Extra-Tropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate:
Extra-Tropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate: Observational Evidence of Trends in Frequencies and Intensities in the North Pacific, North Atlantic, & Great Lakes Regions David Levinson Scientific Services
Application of global 1-degree data sets to simulate runoff from MOPEX experimental river basins
18 Large Sample Basin Experiments for Hydrological Model Parameterization: Results of the Model Parameter Experiment. IAHS Publ. 37, 26. Application of global 1-degree data sets to simulate from experimental
CLIMATE, WATER & LIVING PATTERNS THINGS
CLIMATE, WATER & LIVING PATTERNS NAME THE SIX MAJOR CLIMATE REGIONS DESCRIBE EACH CLIMATE REGION TELL THE FIVE FACTORS THAT AFFECT CLIMATE EXPLAIN HOW THOSE FACTORS AFFECT CLIMATE DESCRIBE HOW CLIMATES
Chapter Overview. Seasons. Earth s Seasons. Distribution of Solar Energy. Solar Energy on Earth. CHAPTER 6 Air-Sea Interaction
Chapter Overview CHAPTER 6 Air-Sea Interaction The atmosphere and the ocean are one independent system. Earth has seasons because of the tilt on its axis. There are three major wind belts in each hemisphere.