Trends in living arrangements of the Belgian elderly: the impact of Second Demographic Transition ( )

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1 Trends in living arrangements of the Belgian elderly: the impact of Second Demographic Transition ( ) Michel POULAIN Barcelona 26 June 2015

2 Questions addressed Living arrangements, with whom you live, is a key variable for assessing the wellbeing of older persons and their need for care and support. We identify trends in living arrangements of older people, with the special interest on those living alone. We try to detect a possible impact of the Second Demographic Transition for the elderly population, in the specific case of the Belgian population, followed up to 2013.

3 Data used Population census: 1961 (10% sample), 1970, 1981, 1991 and 2001 (exhaustive datasets). Data extracted from the Belgium National Population Register, that includes continuous information on marital status, household composition, place of residence, births and deaths at individual base from 1991 till Advantages: exhaustive coverage of the total population (large number of people) including living arrangements on every 1 st January and date of death (if occurring during the period). Limitations: administrative registration that could slightly differs from the de facto situation for living arrangement (e.g. under-coverage of those living in nursing homes for long term care or those cohabitating).

4 Concept of living arrangements The living arrangement is a variable describing the co-residence status of a person. It is based on the three following variables: 1. marital status, 2. household type, 3. family-related links of each person in household to each other member of the household

5 Typology of living arrangements A. Persons living alone Never married or ever-married living alone B. Persons living in a private household Person living with spouse in a married couple Person cohabiting with partner but not married Person living in another type of household with others that could be family-related or not living with others C. Persons living in a collective household

6 Absolute and relative increases of the male and female populations aged 65 and over from 1991 till 2013.

7 Change in the age-standardized number people aged 65+ by living arrangement (1991=100%)

8 Evolution of the proportion of those living alone with their spouse for three age groups

9 More old people cohabiting with a partner among 65+, mostly divorced or separated

10 Number of persons living alone, age 65+

11 240% 220% 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% Rela ve change of the absolute number of persons 65+ living alone Men alone never married Men alone divorced/separated Men alone widowed Women alone never married Women alone divorced/ separated Women alone widowed

12 More men and women living alone by marital status,

13 Proportion of living alone among never married men by age, cohort and year ( )

14 Proportion of living alone among widowed women by age, cohort and year ( )

15 Main factors explaining these changes 1. The pure demographic effect of unequal size of cohorts in age 65+ between 1991 and New cohorts arriving in older ages (in 65) have different demographic characteristics compared to older cohorts. 3. Changes in the behaviour of elderly in their later life (65+) that could influence the evolution of the number of those living alone.

16 Expected changes in behaviour of the elderly (1) Improvement of health and longevity - living longer in couple (less widows) but also living longer alone. Increasing number of people who are divorced or separated (among incoming cohorts but also among elderly). Decrease in remarriage and parallel increase in cohabitation including those living apart together (LAT). Less interest to go early in nursing home (nursing home as the last option). Less interest to join children from both side (postponing as long as possible the lost of independency, avoiding to disturb children, and for other psychological reasons).

17 Expected changes in behaviour of the elderly (2) Individualisation of the society living alone becomes more a voluntary choice than an obligation. Men are more able to live alone compared to past situation as the domestic tasks are more shared between spouses and they get experience. Women are economically more independent what makes it possible to live alone. Most of these changes could be seen as the result of the SDT as well as more global changes occurring in the post-modern society.

18 Policy implications Why we study elderly living alone? Are the needs of those living alone different from than those living with others? If YES, then absolute number are key information, or more importantly change in absolute numbers of those living alone. Can the needs be met? The availability of caregivers or financial implication are more linked to the trends in relative number of people living alone. Investigating these needs We have to assess if people living alone are in a different situation compared to those living with others in terms of health, need for care or institutionalisation.

19 Thank you!

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