Indo-Pacific Ocean Environment Variation and Air-sea Interaction IPOVAI Project Proposal

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1 NEW PROJECT PROPOSAL Indo-Pacific Ocean Environment Variation and Air-sea Interaction IPOVAI Project Proposal Dr. Prof. Fangli Qiao First Institute of Oceanography, SOA, China May 2015, Phuket, Thailand

2 Outline 1. Scientific background 2. Objective 3. Project contents 4. Outcome 5. Working plan 6. Relationship with on-going projects

3 1. Scientific background Why we need this project?

4 Science Drivers for IPOVAI ENSO Monsoons system Tropical Cyclones Strong interannual variations and complicated ocean circulation system While lack of forecasting system Cyclone Indian Ocean Dipole ITF MJO Indian Ocean is the most poorly investigated region except the southern ocean

5 EASM SAM NWPM AM Monsoon circulation and precipitation in Asian- Australian Region (Boreal summer minus boreal winter) Monsoon: derived from the Arabic word for season Character: Seasonal reversal of the wind direction

6 Low prediction ability on Monsoon Based on 25 CMIP5 climate models Low ability on precipitation prediction The monsoon onset is too late Summer Asian monsoon is too weak while the NWPM too strong The prediction ability based on 5 climate models(wang et al, 2004) Sperber et al,2012, CD 6

7 Tropical Cyclones

8 It has been a great challenge for accurate prediction of Typhoon/Hurricane ( ) Rappaport et al, 2012, BAMS 8

9 Tragic disaster by super typhoon Haiyan, more than 4000 died,11.8 M people affected. Accurate. Typhoon prediction is urgently needed

10

11 2. Objective

12 Project objectives Get new findings on air-sea interaction through insitu observation by considering surface wave; Improve our scientific understanding on the role of surface wave in air-sea interaction in the Indo-Pacific Oceans, and get new parameterization on air-sea fluxes especially for high wind conditions; Improve the prediction ability of typhoon intensity and Asian monsoon system.

13 What s new in IPOVAI: Surface wave To identify the effects of surface wave in air-sea interaction, based on our previous research on wave s effects in ocean mixing; To get new parameterization on air-sea fluxes; To establish new Typhoon and monsoon prediction system.

14 3-D global ocean circulation models Pacific Atlantic Indian Pacific Atlantic 35N With waveinduce mixing 35S Without wave effects World Ocean Atlas Along 35N transect in Aug. Along 35S transect in Feb.

15 Vertical Temperature Distributions Pacific Atlantic Indian Pacific Atlantic With wave-induce mixing Without wave-induce mixing World Ocean Atlas Along 35N transect in Aug. Along 35S transect in Feb.

16 Water vapor transport in Australian-Asian Monsoon area No Bv With Bv Bv effect Data Song and Qiao et al, 2012, JAS

17 3. Project contents

18 Concept model of IPOVAI Project Forecasting system Air-Sea interaction Advanced Observation Scientific research 18

19 Multi-scale Interaction Evaluation and Diagnosis of Predictability Mechanism and Model Predictability Mechanism Analysis Dynamic Process Typhoon Monsoon Dynamic Process Mechanism analysis Western Pacific Circulation, Warm Pool Inter-Ocean Exchange Propagation of climate signal Northern Indian Ocean Circulation Air-Sea Interaction 2015/5/23

20 Interface between ocean and atmosphere is critical because of air-sea fluxes Wave dependent momentum flux e.g., Janssen & Viterbo, 1997 Sensible and Latent Heat e.g., Veron et al., 2008 Marine Aerosol Production e.g., O Dowd & de Leeuw, 2007 Momentum Fluxes Heat Fluxes Wave driven turbulence and langmuir circulations e.g., Babanin et al., 2006, 2009 Qiao et al., 2003 Mass Fluxes Bubble injection by breaking waves e.g., Woolf, 1993 Albedo whitecapping waves e.g., Frouin et al., 2001 MIZ Extent e.g., Squire et al., 1995 More effort should be conducted for the observation over air-sea interface

21 IIOE 50 th Anniversary Planning: This project can also contribute to IIOE-2 as contribution from WESTPAC Spearheaded by IOGOOS, IOP and SIBER Supported by SCOR and UNESCO/IOC International planning committee formed, the IIOE-2 Reference Group

22 Workshops/Symposium We would like to organize an Open Science meeting in late 2015 if approved by IOC/WESTPAC, and annually workshops will be organized ; To identify the common interest and communicate on scientific progresses, generate the annual report. New Generation Model Development New coupled models on Monsoon and Typhoon will be developed through considering new parameterization of air-sea fluxes, especially the effects of surface wave.

23 In Situ Observation The needed observation in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific will be discussed during Open Science Meeting and will be addressed in Science/Implementation plan of IPOVAI, if approved. Capacity Building Will be combined with the annual training course organized by the UNESCO/IOC-ODC center.

24 4. Outcome

25 Outcome Advance our understanding on the internal dynamical features of the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean natural variability, especially the role of surface wave in air-sea fluxes. Expected update methodology emerging from this project, which are relevant to typhoon and monsoon prediction, will become useful tools for the numerical modelers. The air-sea coupled models on Typhoon and monsoon will be shared among all participants.

26 Steering Committee Dr. Fangli Qiao, First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, China Dr. Dake Chen, Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, China Dr. Alexander V. Babanin, Swinburne University of Technology, Australia Dr. Fredolin Tangang, National University of Malaysia (UKM), Malaysia Dr. Somkiat Khokiattiwong, Phuket Marine Biological Center, Thailand Dr. Shangping Xie, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA Dr. Le Dinh Mau, Institute of Oceanography, Viet Nam Others are welcomed 26

27 TOR of Steering Committee Review the regional concerns on IPOVAI, and identify the project requirements; Promote efficient and cost-effective implementation of this Project and prepare recommendations to the IOC Sub- Commission for the Western Pacific; Ensure effective interaction and communication with other potential international organizations, such as CLIVAR and SCOR etc; Identify the resources necessary to meet IPOVAI project needs. 27

28 IPOVAI will also be a strong support and implementation of IPON (Indo-Pacific Ocean Observations and Services Network)

29 5. Working Plan

30 We hope the project could be during , and working plan for is as follows Activities Workshop Objectives Communication for the scientific outcome Expected outcomes Identify the common interest, generate the annual report Date and Place One Open Science meeting and two workshops will be organized in 2015,2016,2017 in China and WESTPAC states In situ observation Collect data on air-sea interaction The database 2016,2017 in Indian Ocean and western Pacific Capacity building Training the early careers The skilled researcher , annually in China Model develop and transplant New coupled and ocean models Coupled model In China and WESTPAC member states

31 Estimated budgets Three millions USD are now available from PI, supported by international cooperation projects of State Oceanic administration and NFSC. Thirty thousands USD from IOC/WESTPAC are expected for WS and CB. Contribution from participants are highly welcomed.

32 6. Relationship with on-going projects

33 The on-going projects of OFS and MOMSEI are solid base for the coming IPOVAI, and OFS is ocean forecasting system based on ocean model, sharing data and experience on model development; MOMSEI has focused on observation and process study, which can also do data sharing. In southeast Asia, OFS will establish the ocean forecasting ability, and IPOVAI can initiate the regional climate prediction.

34 If IPOVAI can be approved by IOC/WESTPAC, we will: To organize a working group to draft IPOVAI science/ implementation plan; To organize an Open Science Meeting in late 2015 to discuss, refine and approve draft IPOVAI science/ implementation plan; To seek the possibility to endorse this project by other leading international organization/programm such as WCRP.

35 More effort to understand, protect ocean and climate, also to guarantee our better future Thanks!

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