Alternative Scenario: Economic imbalance and the end of the Commodity Supercycle. Rafael Leão Parallaxis Chief Economist
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1 Alternative Scenario: Economic imbalance and the end of the Commodity Supercycle Rafael Leão Parallaxis Chief Economist
2 A New World after 2008 crisis Central Banks Balance Sheet (USD bi) FED BCE BOJ 0 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Source: Bloomberg
3 A New World after 2008 crisis...
4 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 A New World after 2008 crisis... 8,00 7,00 US Germany Italy Spain Yield 2y Bonds (% p.y.) 6,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 0,00-1,00 Source: Bloomberg
5 Jan-00 Jun-00 Nov-00 Apr-01 Sep-01 Feb-02 Jul-02 Dec-02 May-03 Oct-03 Mar-04 Aug-04 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 A New World after 2008 crisis... Merchandise world trade (fixed base 2005=100) Source: Netherland Bureau of Economic Policy
6 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 The Commodity Party is over ,00 Commodity Research Bureau (Spot index) 550,00 500,00 450,00 400,00 350,00 300,00 250,00 200,00 150,00 Source: Bloomberg
7 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 GSCI (Var.%) The Commodity Party is over... 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 0,0-10,0-20,0-30,0-40,0-50,0 GSCI GS Commodity Index vs. Brazil Total GDP (Acum. q/q %) Brazil Total GDP (RHS) 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0-2,0 BR GDP (var.%) Source: Bloomberg
8 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Emerging Markets FX are suffering EM Exchange Rates (fixed base 2008=100) ARS/US$ AUD/US$ BRL/US$ MXN/US$ Guarani/US$ Rublo/US$ Peso do Uruguai/US$ Source: Bloomberg
9 Our hypothesis for a New World... Bretton Woods System operated as a Global Surplus Recycling Mechanism (GSRM) until ; Its purpose? To prevent the build-up of systematic surpluses in some countries and of persistent deficits in others. After Bretton Woods System collapses, USA emerged as a new GSRM; Allowed by the exorbitant privilege of US Dollar; USA Trade & Fiscal deficit -> Recycling German/Japan/China surpluses -> Capital flow to Wall Street -> Financialization (CDOs, CDSs, and others new derivatives) -> Flow back to the originating countries -> Ample liquidity, price escalation. The global economy stepped into a new pace of growth after 2008 crisis; USA lost its capacity to operate as GSRM Unbearable twin deficit problem (Trade & Fiscal), loss of dynamism and sluggish growth; EU Faces its own problem, due to its incapacity to recycle internal surpluses (Ger.)/deficits (Greek); China - Decelerating due to macroeconomic rebalancing; A world in a New Normal -> Lower and more erratic growth, under its potential;
10 Modeling these hypothesis to some countries Country Name Series Name ¹ 2016¹ United States GDP growth (annual %) 4,1 1,0 1,8 2,8 3,8 3,3 2,7 1,8-0,3-2,8 2,5 1,6 2,3 2,2 2,4 2,6 2,8 1,5 China GDP growth (annual %) 8,4 8,3 9,1 10,0 10,1 11,4 12,7 14,2 9,6 9,2 10,6 9,5 7,8 7,7 7,4 6,8 6,3 5,4 Euro area GDP growth (annual %) 3,9 2,1 1,0 0,7 2,3 1,7 3,3 3,1 0,5-4,5 2,1 1,7-0,8-0,4 0,9 1,5 1,6 1,2 Brazil GDP growth (annual %) 4,4 1,3 3,1 1,2 5,7 3,1 4,0 6,0 5,0-0,2 7,6 3,9 1,8 2,7 0,1-3,0-2,0 0,7 Argentina GDP growth (annual %) -0,8-4,4-10,9 8,8 9,0 9,2 8,4 8,0 3,1 0,1 9,5 8,4 0,8 2,9 0,5 0,4-0,7 0,5 Uruguay GDP growth (annual %) -1,9-3,8-7,7 0,8 5,0 7,5 4,1 6,5 7,2 4,2 7,8 5,2 3,3 5,1 3,5 2,5 2,2 0,4 Paraguay GDP growth (annual %) -2,3-0,8 0,0 4,3 4,1 2,1 4,8 5,4 6,4-4,0 13,1 4,3-1,2 14,2 4,4 3,0 3,8 0,8 Source: Weo/IMF - Forecasts¹: Parallaxis Avg ¹ US 50% below its potential; China 40% below its potential; EU 50% below its potential; Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay & Paraguay - 80% below its potential (New Normal + End of Commodity Cycle);
11 Modeling these hypothesis to some countries Avg Country Name Series Name ¹ 2016¹ 2025¹ United States CPI Rate (annual %) 3,4 2,8 1,6 2,3 2,7 3,4 3,2 2,9 3,8-0,4 1,6 3,2 2,1 1,5 1,3 0,1 1,1 1,6 China CPI Rate (annual %) 0,3 0,7-0,7 1,1 3,8 1,8 1,6 4,8 5,9-0,7 3,2 5,5 2,6 2,6 1,4 1,5 1,8 1,2 Euro area CPI Rate (annual %) 2,3 2,6 2,2 2,1 2,1 2,0 2,1 2,1 3,2 0,2 1,5 2,6 2,4 1,3 0,5 0,2 1,0 1,4 Brazil CPI Rate (annual %) 7,0 6,8 8,5 14,7 6,6 6,9 4,2 3,6 5,7 4,9 5,0 6,6 5,4 6,2 6,3 10,0 6,5 6,0 Argentina CPI Rate (annual %) -0,9-1,1 25,9 13,4 4,4 9,7 10,9 8,8 8,6 6,3 10,5 9,8 10,0 10,6 21,4 16,8 25,6 11,5 Uruguay CPI Rate (annual %) 4,8 4,4 14,0 19,4 9,2 4,7 6,4 8,1 7,9 7,1 6,7 8,1 8,1 8,6 8,9 8,4 8,1 9,0 Paraguay CPI Rate (annual %) 9,0 7,3 10,5 14,2 4,3 6,8 9,6 8,1 10,2 2,6 4,7 8,3 3,7 2,7 5,0 3,3 4,2 8,6 Source: UNCTAD - Forecasts¹: Parallaxis Avg Country Name Series Name ¹ 2016¹ 2025¹ United States Raw Agri. Com. Production (annual %) 2,2-1,2-2,2 3,0 6,9-1,5-0,5 4,2 1,9 1,8-0,4-2,8-2,6 8,4 2,8 1,5 2,3 2,1 China Raw Agri. Com. Production (annual %) -5,1-2,3 1,1-2,6 7,4 2,1 3,0 3,4 4,8 0,9 2,0 3,0 2,9 0,9 0,7 3,6 4,2 3,3 Brazil Raw Agri. Com. Production (annual %) 8,7 5,1 10,0 4,9 5,9 5,2 5,1 6,6-2,6 7,1 6,2-1,8 5,7 4,0 4,3 4,9 5,2 5,5 Argentina Raw Agri. Com. Production (annual %) 8,2-1,2 4,4 0,6 16,6-0,8 13,5 1,5-20,3 34,2-6,6-10,6 11,1 6,4 5,0 0,9 4,7 3,3 Uruguay Raw Agri. Com. Production (annual %) 2,9-25,6 29,4 15,8 18,6 9,3 9,1-6,5 5,0 17,6-7,6 11,1 9,9-3,5-2,4 4,9 3,4 3,7 Paraguay Raw Agri. Com. Production (annual %) 9,6 3,4 19,4-5,2 6,4 5,9 28,8 0,7-12,9 39,7 3,9-28,5 52,2-0,7 6,0 14,7 11,8 12,4 Source: USDA - Forecasts¹: Parallaxis
12 Thank you!!! Rafael Leão Partner Chief Economist ContactMe: T: parallaxis.com.br Rua São Bento, 329/Sala 94 Centro/São Paulo-SP Associação Brasileira do Agronegócio Brazilian Agribusiness Association T: abag.com.br Av. Paulista andar - Conj São Paulo SP
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