Economic Impacts o fthe Shale Revolution in North America. Mark Nelson OGIF Xian, P. R. China September 25 th, 2013

Transcription

1 Economic Impacts o fthe Shale Revolution in North America Mark Nelson OGIF Xian, P. R. China September 25 th, 2013

2 Cautionary Statement The following presentation includes forward looking statements. These statements relate to future events, such as anticipated revenues, earnings, business strategies, competitive position or other aspects of our operations or operating results. Actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict such as oil and gas prices; refining and marketing margins; operational hazards and drilling risks; potential failure to achieve, and potential delays in achieving expected reserves or production levels from existing and future oil and gas development projects; unsuccessful exploratory activities; unexpected cost increases or technical difficulties in constructing, maintaining or modifying company facilities; international monetary conditions and exchange controls; potential liability for remedial actions under existing or future environmental regulations or from pending or future litigation; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; general domestic and international economic and political conditions, as well as changes in tax, environmental and other laws applicable to ConocoPhillips business and other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting ConocoPhillips business generally as set forth in ConocoPhillips filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Use of non GAAP financial information This presentation may include non GAAP financial measures, which help facilitate comparison of company operating performance across periods and with peer companies. Any non GAAP measures included herein will be accompanied by a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure in an appendix. Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and possible reserves. We use the term "resource" in this presentation that the SEC s guidelines prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the oil and gas disclosures in our Form 10 K and other reports and filings with the SEC. Copies are available from the SEC and from the ConocoPhillips website. 2

3 Economic Impacts of Shale Revolution in North America Today s Discussion Overview of the current North American shale developments Supply and demand impacts of shale gas on the gas market Implications of the new supply and demand balance on US economy Eagle Ford shale development and impacts on local economy Positive environmental impacts of shale developments Investment conditions that supported shale developments Conclusion: Shale gas revolution will provide significant benefit to the US economy for decades to come, and could provide similar benefits for the Chinese economy. 3

4 North American Shale Gas Plays 4 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Geographic diversity across the continent

5 Shale Gas Development in North America Shale gas has generated a rapid impact with long term future potential Shale Gas Production (Bcfd) North American Production (Bcfd) Eagle Ford Montney, Horn River Marcellus U.S. & Canada Demand Haynesville Fayetteville 60 Shale Production 8 4 Woodford Barnett Non Shale Production Source: Wood McKenzie % 20% 43% 52% 54% Shale % of Production 5

6 Shale Revolution and its Effect on the Economy Shale revolution in North America has had dramatic effect on the economy Lowered energy and feedstock costs Increased oil and gas investment and employment Multipliers of economic activity from that employment A re industrialization of the US Low cost energy with supply abundance Lower cost petrochemical feedstock Significant impacts to local economies Environmental benefits of gas utilization 6

7 Shale Gas Supply Demand Impacts in North America Lower prices and expanded gas supply Improved US competitiveness Lower input costs for manufacturing A tipping point in regards to costs/risk? A re shoring of jobs to the US? Rebalancing toward oil development improves overall economic returns for shale development New drilling equilibrium Price ($US/mscf) Source: EIA Natural Gas Market Demand vs Price $7.33 $ Quantity (Bcfd) Number of Rigs Gas Rigs American Chemistry Council S 1 S Market demand Oil Rigs Source: Baker Hughes 7

8 Key Areas of Impact to the National Economy Employment impacts Direct: Employment in shale gas production activities Indirect: Supported by purchases of supply chain Induced: Supported by the spending of those employed Significant revenues for federal, state and local tax bases Taxes from shale production Taxes on employment, sales taxes, etc Lower costs for manufacturing 8

9 Unconventional Resource Impact to Employment Employment in Unconventional Value Chain Number of workers Upstream 1,750,000 2,990,000 3,500,000 Midstream/Downstream 324,000 74,000 57,000 Petro Chemicals 53, , ,000 Totals 2,127,000 3,341,000 3,876,000 Induced 47% Direct 22% Source: IHS Indirect 31% 9

10 Tax Revenue Generation from Shale Developments Millions USD Activity Upstream Energy 63, , ,300 1,436,300 Midstream/ Downstream 9,800 2,200 1,700 63,100 Petro Chemicals 1,700 10,400 12, ,200 Total Government Revenue Private Lease Payments 74, , ,400 1,614, ,100 11,700 90% of all tax revenues generate from the upstream oil and gas production Tax revenue benefits split ~50%/50% between federal and state/local entities Income taxes, sales and severance taxes, royalties, etc Source: IHS 10

11 Shale Gas Impacts on Petrochem Industry in US 11 Creating competitive advantage for US manufacturers for decades Lower cost energy/electricity supplies Low cost ethane feed stock Reliable supplies at reasonable pricing Thru Mar 2013, 100 new petrochemical investments announced Over $70 B investment 1.2 million job years of employment thru 2020 Export focused projects Source: American Chemistry Council Report Million barrels per day Cents per gallon 2.6 NGL Production Growth Mt. Belvieu Prices Propane Ethane

12 12 Local Economic Benefits of Eagle Ford Development 2012 $46 Billion in economic impact (green counties) Oil and gas production Mid and downstream investments 86,000 full time jobs $3.3 Billion in salaries $3.0 Billion in royalties $800 MM in local taxes $1.1 Billion in state taxes $250 MM in sales tax increases Housing, schools hospitals, universities Additional benefits for surrounding six counties (orange) 30,000 full time jobs $250 MM in state revenues University of Texas San Antonio Institute for Economic Development

13 ConocoPhillips Activities in Eagle Ford Focus on condensate window Operating 11 rigs (industry ~200) Leader in drilling efficiency Shift to pad drilling Integrated operations center provides real time field surveillance Eagle Ford Spud to Rig Release (Days per 10,000 ft) COP s Base and Development Production Mboepd (net) Base Production Development Production Source: ConocoPhillips 13

14 Polling Results: Perceptions of the Oil and Gas Industry The community recognizes the benefit of oil and gas industry presence. 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Karnes City, TX Kenedy, TX Eagle Ford Polling Project July 19,

15 Polling Results: Perceptions of the Oil and Gas Industry 70% 60% 50% Does the oil and gas industry bring value to your community? 93% Karnes City, TX Kenedy, TX 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Completely Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Completely Disagree 93% of our sample either Agreed or Completely Agreed that the oil and gas industry brings value to their communities. When asked how the industry brings value, we received multiple responses. The larger the word, the more it was mentioned in the response. 15

16 Environmental Benefits of Shale Gas Revolution Gas fired power generation provides Clean Energy for Crowded Places Clean burning Half the greenhouse gas emissions of coal Small acreage and water footprint Can site closer to demand Combined cycle gas powered plants use less water than coal fired or nuclear plants No solids disposal issues A 10% decrease in the cost of electrical power in the U.S. for average consumer Fuel Source Kg CO 2 per MWh Biomass 1358 Coal 1022 Oil 760 Natural Gas 516 Renewables 0 Source: California State Polytechnic University 16

17 U.S. Shale Gas Helped Reduce CO 2 Emissions Electricity generation (TWh/yr) Renewables Natural Gas +21% CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel electricity generation (Million MT) 6,500 6, Coal 5,500 1% 2 Nuclear, Hydro, Other 5, , Gas displacement of coal has been key driver in reducing CO 2 emissions Source: U.S. Department for Energy, Short Term Energy Outlook, May 2013.

18 Investment Conditions that Support Shale Development Access to technical and geologic data Lower barriers to access to shale resources Timely government approvals for such access Terms that are appropriate for characteristics of shale development More transparent access to infrastructure (pipelines) and market Balanced regulations; economics and environmental stewardship 18

19 Looking to the Future Shale is the great energy story of 21 st century Economic benefits nationally and locally are transformational Direct: Employment, output, and taxes Indirect: Supported by supply chain purchases Induced: Supported by the spending of those employed Economic competitiveness for industries from lower cost, stable supplies of gas Environmental benefits to society from greater utilization of gas in energy mix

20 20 Thank You