Latin America Economic Outlook

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1 Latin America Economic Outlook

2 Latin America Current Outlook Ø Lower commodity prices remain undermining growth in the region Ø Commodity exports continue adjusting to lower prices Ø Relief from abroad - external environment for Latam s currencies has marginally improved Ø Tightening monetary cycle has been contained by weak activity, less pressure over exchange rate and Fed signals of only two rate hikes in 2016 / 2

3 China What comes next? And if China slowdown reveals itself as a hard landing? China market economy? Yuan a new depreciation? 28,0 Exports to China as a % of total exports Exports to China as a % of country s GDP 8,0 28,0 Imports from China as a % of total imports Imports from China as a % of country s GDP 8,0 24,5 7,0 24,5 7,0 21,0 6,0 21,0 6,0 17,5 5,0 17,5 5,0 14,0 4,0 14,0 4,0 10,5 3,0 10,5 3,0 7,0 2,0 7,0 2,0 3,5 1,0 3,5 1,0 0,0 Chile Brazil Peru Colombia Argentina Ecuador Mexico 0,0 0,0 Peru Chile Colombia Mexico Argentina Brazil Ecuador 0,0 Source: Central Banks and National Statistic Institutes Source: Central Banks and National Statistic Institutes / 3

4 External sector dependence on commodity Exports of primary products as a share of total exports Latam Exports per GDP Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Source: Cepal 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 33% 26% 18% 13% 13% 13% Mexico Chile Peru Colombia Argentina Brazil Source: Central Banks / 4

5 Exchange rate : Recent relief from abroad Commodity Prices (index number May =100) 120 Soya Oil Copper Iron Ore 250 Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia Peru Argentina /30/ 6/30/ 7/31/ 8/31/ 9/30/ 10/31/ 11/30/ 12/31/ 1/31/ 2/28/ 3/31/ 4/30/ 5/31/ 6/30/ 7/31/ 8/31/ 9/30/ 10/31/ 11/30/ 12/31/ 1/31/2016 2/29/2016 3/31/2016 Source: Index Mundi Source: Central Banks / 5

6 Manufacturing: No bright spot Industrial Production (index number jan =100) Manufacturing exports (index number jan =100) 140 Brazil Chile Colombia Peru Mexico Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia Peru jan/14 feb/14 mar/14 apr/14 may/14 jun/14 jul/14 aug/14 sep/14 oct/14 nov/14 dec/14 jan/15 feb/15 mar/15 apr/15 may/15 jun/15 jul/15 aug/15 sep/15 oct/15 nov/15 dec/15 jan/16 feb/16 Source: National Statistical Institutes Source: Central Banks / 6

7 Inflation has shown resilience at higher levels Mexico Colombia Chile Peru Brazil Argentina Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic Ene 2016 Feb 2016 Mar / 7

8 Tightening monetary cycle has been generally contained 40,00 Chile Peru Colombia Mexico Brazil Argentina 35,00 30,00 25,00 20,00 15,00 10,00 5,00 0,00 ene.2008 mar.2008 may.2008 jul.2008 sept.2008 nov.2008 ene.2009 mar.2009 may.2009 jul.2009 sept.2009 nov.2009 ene.2010 mar.2010 may.2010 jul.2010 sept.2010 nov.2010 ene.2011 mar.2011 may.2011 jul.2011 sept.2011 nov.2011 ene.2012 mar.2012 may.2012 jul.2012 sept.2012 nov.2012 ene.2013 mar.2013 may.2013 jul.2013 sept.2013 nov.2013 ene. mar. may. jul. sept. nov. ene. mar. may. jul. sept. nov. ene.2016 mar.2016 Source: Central Banks / 8

9 Country Risk Assessments / 1

10 Country Risk Assessments Country Risk Assessment 2016 January Mars June October January March June October January March Business Climate Chile A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A3 A3 A3 A2 Colombia A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 Mexico A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 Peru A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 B Brazil A3î A4 A4 A4 A4 A4î A4î B C C A4 Ecuador B B B B B Bî Bî C C C B Argentina C C C C C C C C C C C Venezuela C Cî Cî D D D D D D D D / 2

11 GDP growth in Latin America ,1 2,1 2 3,1 2,6 2,5 2,3 3,3 3,3 1 0, ,5-1 -0,1-0, ,8 Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Mexico Peru Latin America / 11

12 Brazil: Did it hit the rock? Retail Sales ( y-o-y % change) Number of Chapter XI requests (acc. along the year) 15,0 10,0 Industrial Production ( y-o-y % change) , , , , ,0 jan/13 mar/13 may/13 jul/13 sep/13 nov/13 jan/14 mar/14 may/14 jul/14 sep/14 nov/14 jan/15 mar/15 may/15 jul/15 sep/15 nov/15 jan/ Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: IBGE Source: Serasa / 12

13 Trade Balance improvment has been driven by freefall in imports ü Exports: 5.2 % in the 1Q2016 YoY ü Imports: 33.4 % in the 1Q16 YoY Export Revenues Import Revenues ene-11 abr-11 jul-11 oct-11 ene-12 abr-12 jul-12 oct-12 ene-13 abr-13 jul-13 oct-13 ene-14 abr-14 jul-14 oct-14 ene-15 abr-15 jul-15 oct-15 ene-16 Source: MDIC, data in index number jan 2011 = 100 Exports to Argentina (Jan - Mar 2016) Total (million USD) % change YoY Total ,4 Passenger car ,6 Parts for vehicles and tractors ,5 Freight vehicle and tractors ,4 Polymers of ethylene, propylene and styrene 86-3,5 Tyres 79 1,7 Engines for vehicles, car and parts 62-39,7 Iron or steel steel rolled products 57-36,6 Iron ore and its concentrates 51-57,0 Chassis with engine and bodyworks for vehicles 51 52,6 Other products ,2 Imports from Argentina (Jan -Mar 2016) Total (million USD) % change YoY Total ,9 Freight vehicle and passenger car ,6 Wheat in grain ,1 Parts for vehicles and tractors 98-26,8 Polymers of ethylene, propylene and styrene 75-30,7 Vegetables prepared/preserved in acetic acid 60 10,4 Fresh or chilled garlics 55 65,5 Whole or party not roasted malt 54 9,2 Perfume products, toilet and cosmetics 43-14,5 Bairley grains 38-12,6 Other products ,2 / 13

14 Brazil - Job positions have been closed ü 1.7 million employments were destroyed in one year until February ,0 9,5 9,0 8,5 8,0 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 Unemployment rate (q-o-q % change) Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Job Positions Sector Balance Change in 12 months acc. Transformation industry ,31 Civil construction ,31 Services ,09 Trade ,39 Public administration ,68 Mineral extraction ,76 Industrial service of public utility ,37 Agro ,66 Total ,14 Source: Caged / 14

15 Sector Risk Assessments in 2016 / 15

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