May 26, 2003 PRESENT STATE OF THE ECONOMY AND FUTURE PROSPECTS. Dr. Ashfaque H. Khan Director General (Debt Office) Ministry of Finance

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1 May 26, 2003 PRESENT STATE OF THE ECONOMY AND FUTURE PROSPECTS By Dr. Ashfaque H. Khan Director General (Debt Office) Ministry of Finance

2 OUTLINE OF THE PRESENTATION! IMMEDIATE PAST! MAJOR ECONOMIC CHALLENGES! PRESENT STATE OF THE ECONOMY! FUTURE PROSPECTS OF PAKISTAN S ECONOMY

3

4 PAKISTAN S MAJOR ECONOMIC CHALLENGES " How to achieve debt sustainability? " How to revive investment and economic growth? " How to prevent people falling below the poverty line? " How to improve governance?

5 WHY WE LANDED INTO SUCH DIFFICULTIES?! PAKISTAN SUSTAINED A VERY LARGE (7.0 % OF GDP) FISCAL DEFICIT FOR A VERY LONG PERIOD OF TIME (TWO DECADES).! PAKISTAN ALSO SUSTAINED A LARGE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT (5% OF GDP) FOR ABOUT ONE DECADE (1990s)

6 DOMESTIC DEBT CONTINUED TO RISE AT AN ASTRONOMICAL RATE (Billion Rupees)

7 EXTERNAL DEBT AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE LIABILITIES INCREASED (Billion US $)

8 WHAT HAVE BEEN THE IMPLICATIONS? Debt Servicing as % of total revenue surged (Percent)

9 DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURE CONTINUED TO DECLINE AS % OF GDP (Percent)

10 BOTH INVESTMENT AND GDP GROWTH SLOWED TOTAL INVESTMENT AS % OF GDP (Percent) s

11 BOTH INVESTMENT AND GDP GROWTH SLOWED REAL GDP GROWTH (Percent) s Economic Growth Slowed

12 INCIDENCE OF POVERTY RURAL TOTAL URBAN

13 WHAT POLICIES WE PURSUED? Stabilization policy to reduce twin deficits (budget and current account deficits) with a view to attaining debt sustainability. Wide ranging Structural Reform to remove impediments for private sector development, raising investment and growth. Launched a credible and monitor able program for poverty alleviation. Transparency and consistency in policy and civil service reforms to improve governance.

14

15 Despite series of domestic and external shocks such as: " unprecedented drought, " the events of September 11, " the military build up of India

16 Pakistan s economy has made significant progress during the last three years. " The economy is now more stable " economic policies are transparent and predictable " confidence of the private sector is restored to a larger extent;

17 " expatriate Pakistanis are bringing their capital back; " stock market is buoyant; " external balance of payments are in comfortable position;

18 " foreign exchange reserves have crossed $ 10 billion and are sufficient to finance 11 months of imports; " exchange rate is stable; " inflation is low and interest rates are declining; " domestic and external debt have declined;

19 " fiscal deficit has been lowered and current account balance is in surplus; " tax collection is growing; " exports have picked up, " and lastly, Pakistan s credit rating in international capital markets has improved.

20 Let me add some statistics: Fiscal Side: CBR Tax collection is Above Target. Rs billion as against the target of Rs. 309 billion. Tax collection is up by 15 percent during the July-March, Fiscal Deficit down to 4.6 percent of GDP from an average of 7.0 percent.

21 FISCAL DEFICIT (As % of GDP) s

22 Domestic Debt Declines from 52% to 43% of GDP) (E) Domestic Debt as % of GDP continued to rise during the 1980s and most part of the 1990s.

23 Domestic Debt grew almost twice the size of income growth until Growth in Domestic Debt slowed Percent s-I 1980s-II 1980s

24 # Cost of financing domestic debt has also declined from 12.5% in end-june 1999 to 7.5% in end-december # Debt servicing as percent of total revenue has declined from 66 percent to 44 percent in # Declining trend in development spending has been arrested. As opposed to 3.0 percent, development spending is 3.3 percent to GDP in # Inflation at 3.5 percent during July-March is below the target of 4.0 percent. It is much lower than the average of 10 percent during the 1990s

25 POVERTY AND SOCIAL SECTOR SPENDING INCREASED (Billion Rs) (T)

26 BOTH INVESTMENT AND GROWTH PICKING UP TOTAL INVESTMENT AS % OF GDP s Investment continued to decline until

27 BOTH INVESTMENT AND GROWTH PICKING UP REAL GDP GROWTH (Percent) s

28 $ Interest rates are falling. Weighted average lending rate down from 14 percent in June 2001 to 9.36 percent in February $ Private sector credit is up by 52.7 percent. $ Industrial production during July- February is up by 8.0 percent. $ Stock market has remained buoyant during July-March KSE-100 index has increased from 1770 points to 2716 points up by 53.4 percent.

29 Pakistan has been the most profitable Pakistan has been the most profitable market in the world. Japan China Indonesia Taiwan Philippine Korea Hong Kong Thailand Singapore Malaysia India Sri Lanka Pakistan

30 EXTERNAL SECTOR " Both exports and imports have picked up despite uncertain global environment. " Exports are up by 20 percent and imports by 23 percent during July-March

31 Exports are up by 20 percent so far. EXPORTS ($ Million)

32 IMPORTS ($ Million) Imports are up by 23 percent. Sign of Economic Revival and good for revenue

33 REMITTANCES STOOD AT $ 2.9 BILLION AND ARE UP BY 105 PERCENT DURING JULY-FEBRUARY REMITTANCES ARE LIKELY TO TOUCHED AT ALL TIME HIGH OF $ 4.3 BILLION US $ Rising flow of remittances is an example of confidence of the expatriate Pakistanis on the country s economy.

34 FOREIGN INVESTMENT HAS ALSO PICKED UP. AS AGAINST $ 247 MILLION, FOREIGN INVESTMENT STOOD AT $ 640 MILLION IN THE FIRST EIGHT MONTHS OF THE CURRENT FISCAL YEAR. IT IS EXPECTED TO TOUCH $ 1.0 BILLION THIS YEAR Improved Economic Indicators are encouraging Foreign Investment in the country.

35 CURRENT ACCOUNT HAS TURNED SURPLUS AS OPPOSED TO A DEFICIT OF 5.0 PERCENT OF GDP. DURING JULY-FEBRUARY CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS HAS REACHED $ 2.7 BILLION. IT IS LIKELY TO TOUCH $ 3.0 BILLION IN THIS YEAR (E) Current Account Deficit ranged between $ 2.0 billion to $ 4.5 billion during most part of the 1990s.

36 FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES HAVE CROSSED $ 10 BILLION AND LIKELY TO REACH $ 11.0 BILLION BY THE END OF OUR RESERVES ARE SUFFICIENT TO FINANCE 11 MONTHS OF IMPORTS April 9,03

37 " STONG BRUILD UP IN RESERVES HAS STRENGTHEND PAKISTANI RUPEE VIZ US DOLLAR. EXCHANGE RATE HAS APPRECIATED BY 11 PERCENT SINCE JULY 3, " PAKISTAN S TOTAL STOCK OF EXTERNAL DEBT AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE LIABILITIES HAVE DECLINED BY $ 3.0 BILLION.

38 EXTERNAL DEBT LIABILITIES (BILLION $)

39 " PAKISTAN NET DEBT AND LIABILTIES STOOD AT $ 37 BILLION IN END-JUNE 2000 AND EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO $ 26 BILLION BY END-JUNE 2003 A REDUCTION OF $ 11 BILLION IN 3 YEARS. " EXTERNAL DEBT BURDEN HAS ALSO DECLINED SIGNIFICANTLY.

40 EXTERNAL DEBT AS PERCENT OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNINGS

41 INCIDENCE OF POVERTY RURAL TOTAL URBAN

42 FUTURE PROSPECTS " Per capita income to rise by 46 percent in 5 years, i.e. from $ 427 to $ 623. " Poverty to be reduced by 25 percent from the current level of 31.8 percent to 23.8 percent. " Taking real GDP growth to 6 percent in 5 years from the current year target of 4.5 percent.

43 FUTURE PROSPECTS " Investment as percentage of GDP to rise to 18 percent from the current level of percent. " Saving rate rising from the current level of 15 percent to 16.5 percent.

44 FUTURE PROSPECTS " Inflation to remain below 5 percent. " Fiscal deficit declining to less than 3 percent of GDP in 5 years. " Development spending rising to 4.1 percent of GDP from the current level of 3.3 percent. " Public debt as % of GDP is targeted to decline to 76 percent in 5 years from the current level of 90 percent.

45 RISKS/DANGER " Tax culture not gaining grounds. " We may become fiscally irresponsible. " We may use gimmicks to resolve economic problems.

46 PRE-REQUISITE REQUISITE TO ACHIEVE TARGETS " We must continue to pursue consistent and transparent economic policies. " Complete the On Going Structural Reform Program. " Continue to work to reduce social gap. " We must continue to remain fiscally responsible. " We must Avoid Being the Victim of Lobbies.

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