Outline of Study to Promote CDM in Transport Sector to Resolve Global Warming Problem & Bio-diesel Fuel CDM Project

Transcription

1 Future CDM Workshop Montreal Canada Outline of Study to Promote CDM in Transport Sector to Resolve Global Warming Problem & Bio-diesel Fuel CDM Project Ryo Masutomo Japan Transport Cooperation Association (JTCA) 1

2 Introduction of JTCA (Japan Transport Cooperation Association) Semi-governmental Organization under Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT), Japan Promote the International Cooperation in Transport Sector 25 Regular Members and 33 Supporting Member Firms from Many sectors Environmental Issue is one of the most Important fields to support Japan MLIT Japan Foreign Countries Government JTCA Member Firms (JWA, Almec, PCI,.) Cooperation In the transport sector Private Sector University 2 International Cooperation by JTCA ( )

3 Contents Part I: Outline of Study to Promote CDM in Transport Sector (2003-March 2005) Background Outline of Study past 3 years Part II: Outline of Transport BDF-CDM (April 2005-Dec. 2005) Outline of Project New Methodology Applicability for Other Area Part III: Next Step (Dec ) Other Transport CDM 3

4 /3 2004/3 2005/3 History of Transport CDM Study by MLIT,JTCA Study to Promote CDM in Transport Sector to Resolve Global Warming Problem by MLIT,Japan (March March 2005) PART - I PART - II Preparation of Study Field Driving Test (16,000 km) Bangkok Driving Cycle by speed & car Emission Test (120 Vehicle) Emission Factor by speed & car Estimation of BKK CO2 Emission Classify Transport CDM candidate Select BDF-CDM as model case Emission Factor by Palm & Coconut Initial Project Plan of Transport BDF-CDM Detail F/S of Transport BDF-CDM New Methodology & Tentative PDD Final PDD 2006/3 PART - III Study on BRT CDM 4

5 Part I Outline of Study to Promote CDM in Transport Sector to Resolve Global Warming Problem Entrusted by MLIT, Japan (March 2003-March 2005) 5

6 Background 1 Importance of Transport CDM GHG emission from transport sector is over 20 % in Japan, more in Asian Countries About 90 % of it emitted from vehicle Is increasing rapidly in Asia Increasing of CO2 emission from Transport Sector Transport Industries Home 6

7 Background 2 Difficulties of Transport CDM Transport CDM project is difficult Because Many CO2 emission sources are moving Complicatedness of Urban Transport System It makes the Baseline Scenario difficult Lack of Basic Transport Data Low Cost Effectiveness for CO2 Credit Lack of Good sample of Transport CDM 7

8 Background 3 Background 3 How does Transport CDM promote? => To prepare Driving data (cycle) and emission factor Common basic data and method for calculation Baseline scenario by scientific method Accurate calculation method of GHG reduction Good sample of Transport CDM Project 8

9 Flow Chart of Study Flow Chart of Study Collect actual traffic data in Bangkok Develop Bangkok Driving Cycle & Emission Factor Develop Method of GHG Emission Estimation Identify and Promote of Feasibile Transport CDM Project Promotion of CDM in Transport Sector Effectiveness Reduction of GHGs Improvement of Urban Air Increase of Investment chance 9

10 1. Bangkok Driving Cycle Results of Study Results of Study 2. Emission Factors of Various Vehicles in Bangkok 3. Estimate CO2 Emission from Transport Sector in Bangkok 4. Preliminary Classification of Transport CDM project candidate 5. Identify Feasible Pilot CDM Project Sample CDM 10

11 How to use the outcome of Study How to use the outcome of Study Example of Using Emission Factors Emission Reduction Case 1. Improvement of Traffic Flow CO2 Emission Factor Increase of Vehicle Speed Case 2. Improvement of Emission by Hybrid vehicle Emission Reduction CO2 Emission Factor Usual car Hi-breed car 11

12 Nature of Transport Sector CDM Projects Certain Biodiesel Buses Impact to Public or commercial vehicles CNG Buses Biodiesel Trucks BRT Bus Exclusive lane Technological Options Biodiesel CNG Taxis Taxis CNG LPG Ethanol Trucks Taxis Taxis EV Car Sharing LRT Railway Intersection Improving EV LPG cars Hybrid cars Vehicle I/M Plate Number policy Fuel Price increasing Traffic Management /Infrastructure Options CNG cars Ethanol cars Impact to Private vehicles Park and Ride Road Pricing Uncertain By Dr. Atsushi Fukuda, Nihon University

13 International Seminar on Study to Promote CDM in Transport Sector to Resolve Global Warming Problem in Bangkok March 15,

14 Part II Outline of Palm Methyl Ester - Biodiesel Fuel production and use for transportation in Thailand (NM0142) (Study entrusted by MLIT, Japan) (April 2005-) 14

15 Identified Feasible Transport CDM Project is BDF-CDM in Last Study Basic Concept Chart at March 2005 Concept chart 15

16 Outline of Transport BDF-CDM at Now Outline of Transport BDF-CDM at Now BDF Products: 300 ton/day, 100,000 ton/ year Raw Material: CPO 124,000 ton/year (FFB: 730,000 ton/year) Raw material CPO procure from Suratthani and neighboring 3 provinces Location of Plant: near Bangkok Amount of CO2 Reduction: 217,000 ton/year Suratthani Port Initial Cost: 20 million US $ O & M Cost: 5.8 million US $/year Expected BDF Sales: 58 million US $/year (Ex plant price at 20 baht) Raw Material Cost: 52.7 million US $/year CO2 Credit: 1.5 million US $/year (at 7 $/ton) IRR: 3 % (without CDM), 14% (with CDM) 16

17 Outline of Transport BDF-CDM Project(2b) Comparison the Project with other CDM BDF-CDM Project in Thailand Windmill CDM Project Essaouira, Morocco Project Cost: 58 million US $ CO2 Reduction: 156,000ton/year Project Cost: 20 million US $ CO2 Reduction: 217,000ton/year = 80 windmills (1MW) 17

18 Outline of Transport BDF-CDM Project Outline of Transport BDF-CDM Project Merit of the Project (300 ton/day) for Host Country < Merit of CDM for Host Country > 1) Additional income by GHGs* reduction credit CO2 Credit: 1.5 million US $/year (at 7 $/ton, 300ton/d) 2) Technical & Financial Assistance for the Project Implementation 3) Spread Knowledge of Energy Saving Method & Technique 4) Indirect Merit from Natural Disaster Reduction (Contribution for Countermeasure of Global Warming) < Merit of BDF-CDM Project for Host Country > 1) Increase of Palm Farmer s Income 2) Promotion of Local Economy by Related Industries (Oil mill) Raw Material Cost: 52.7 million US $/year go to mill & farmer 3) Secure of National Security by Import Fossil Oil Reduction Light Oil Reduction: 58 million US $/year 4) Improvement of Air Pollution by BDF using Buses in the City => Most of Developing Countries can obtain Various Benefit 18

19 Number of approved methodologies for each sectoral scopes Consolidated Methodologies Small Scale Methodologies Methodology No approved methodology for Biodiesel CDM project Energy industries (renewable - / non-renewable sources) Energy distribution Energy demand Manufacturing industries Chemical industries Construction Transport Mining/mineral production Metal production Fugitive emissions from fuels (solid, oil and gas) Fugitive emissions from production and consumption of Solvent use Waste handling and disposal Afforestation and reforestation Agriculture As of 30 November,

20 Outline of New Methodology for the Project (1) Outline of New Methodology for the Project (1) - Name of the new methodology: Baseline methodology Baseline Methodology for Palm Methyl Ester or Coconut Methyl Ester Bio-diesel Fuel Production for Transportation using Life Cycle Assessment approach Monitoring methodology Monitoring Methodology for Palm Methyl Ester or Coconut Methyl Ester Bio-diesel Fuel Production for Transportation using Life Cycle Assessment approach Draft PDD Palm Methyl Ester-Biodiesel Fuel (PME-BDF) production and use for transportation in Thailand - Reference number on UNFCCC website NM Submission Submitted to the CDM EB on 3 October and now call for public inputs until 8 December ( ml?openall=1&cases=b) 20

21 Outline of New Methodology for the Project (2) The potential strengths of this new methodology Simplified, but transparent and conservative as well by a) limiting raw materials only to palm oil or coconut oil b) specifying the formation and purpose of entity just for bio-diesel production c) applying Life Cycle Assessment approach to calculate GHG emissions d) monitoring project specific parameters to ensure precise calculation of project emissions 21

22 Outline of New Methodology for the Project (3) Emission Reductions Emission reductions (ERs) are calculated as: ERs = Baseline emissions - Project emissions - Leakage For Thailand project case, ERs = 295,643-37,973-39,915 = 217,755 tco 2 e/yr Emission Reductions (tco 2 /year) 350, , , , , , ,755 Emission Reductions Leakage Project emissions 100,000 50,000 39,915 0 Baseline 37,973 Project 22

23 Barriers for Realization of the Project Barriers for Realization of the Project 1) Approval of New Methodology by Methodology Panel 2) Approval of Governments (Japan & Thailand) 3) Validation of PDD by CDM 4) Procurement of CPO at Stable Price 17 baht/ kg (Average ) Changes of CPO and FFB Price ( ) 23

24 Applicability for Other Area (1) Necessary BDF Plants in Thailand Thai Government Policy on BDF Replace 10 % of Diesel Oil by BDF in Million Liters / day diesel oil is assumed to consume in 2011 => 8 Million Liters /day BDF oil will be needed 8000 ton BDF is necessary everyday => 27 BDF Plants (300 ton/day class) is needed X 27 24

25 Applicability for Other Area(2) Applicability for Other Area(2) Palm & Coconut can grow all Tropical Area (Pink Color shows Tropical Area in Koeppen s Climate Classification) 25

26 Applicability for Other Area(2b) World Oil Palm Cultivation Area Distribution South America (5%) Africa (15%) Asia (80%) Colombia 0.3 2% Nigeria 1.6 9% Malaysia % Ecuador 0.2 2% Ivory Coast 0.5 3% Indonesia % Cost Rica 0.1 1% Unit: Million hectare Cameroon 0.3 2% Thailand % 26

27 Applicability for Other Area(2c) World Coconut Cultivation Area Distribution South America (10%) Africa (5%) Asia & Pacific (85%) Brazil 0.5 5% Tanzania 0.5 1% Philippine % Mexico 0.2 2% Madagascar 0.2 1% Indonesia % Pacific 0.3 3% Mozambique Unit: Million hectare 0.2 1% Thailand 0.3 3% 27

28 Applicability for Other Area (3) Applicability for Other Area (3) Applicable Country/Region of Transport BDF-CDM Geographical View All Tropical Area can introduce this project Especially Asia Region has high potentiality Political View Countries who; put political priority on rural economy and agriculture depend on imported crude oil for domestic energy use have big cities which suffer from air pollution by vehicle have big incentive to introduce this type project 28

29 Key Point & Perspective of Project Formation Key Point & Perspective of Project Formation Key Points of Project formation Assistance from Government (Regulation, Subsidies) Stable Procurement of Raw Material by using Long term Contract because market price of edible oil fluctuate much. Coordination among many stakeholder is necessary. (farmer, mill, petroleum company, user, government, project participant) Establishment of New Methodology Perspective of Project formation Importance of First Project Success 27 Plants (300 tpd) are necessary for realizing Government Policy Other Region especially South Asia has potentioal to introduce this project 29

30 Part III Next Step (Other Transport CDM) (December ) 30

31 Other Transport CDM Study (1) What is Next Task of Transport CDM promotion for JTCA 1. Utilization of Data & Information of Last Study ( ) 2. Preparation of Adequate Model & Monitoring Method 3. Study on Other Feasible Transport CDM 31

32 Other Transport CDM Study (2) Next Study related to Transport CDM We will conduct the following two study projects from now 1) Preliminary F/S of Bus Rapid Transit CDM in Bangkok (MLIT, Japan) 2) Study on Air Pollution Reduction by Subway Extension in Bangkok (JBIC) (a) Calculation of Vehicle Emission of every node of Bangkok road network by using data of previous study (b) Development of Proper Simulation Models for Predicting Urban Transport Demand and Its Impact for Air Pollution & CO2 32

33 END Thank you for your attention! Thank you for your attention! 33