Innovations in Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis

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1 Innovations in Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis OCHA POLICY AND RESEARCH CONFERENCE 12 December 2011 George Mu ammar Spatial Analyst, Food Security Analysis Service VAM - Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping Branch World Food Programme of the United Nations

2 WFP s Mission WFP is the food aid arm of the United Nations system. Food aid is one of the many instruments that can help to promote food security, which is defined as access of all people at all times to food needed for an active and healthy life. WFP will concentrate its efforts and resources on the neediest people. WFP will focus on those aspects [ ] where food-based interventions are most useful. Food Security Analysis Service / VAM Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping 250 staff, mostly national staff / national consultants Present in 77 countries

3 Food Security Information and Outcome time Measurement Strategy C F. S. V. A. FSMMS F.S. & Markets Monitoring System Emergency F.S. Assessment / CFSVA (2) Adjustment Feedback Early Warning Contingency Plan Shock event EMOP PRRO CP Phase- out hand-over Outcome Measurement Feedback Adjustment Emergency F.S. Assessment EMOP

4 Key questions: CFSVA (Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis) Who are the hungry poor and vulnerable? How many are they? Where do they live? Why are they hungry? What are the trends/dynamics? What type of assistance would make a difference? Cameroon Moldova Gambia Sudan Nepal Kenya Guinea-Bissau China Sierra Leone Zambia Liberia Pakistan Senegal Indonesia Tanzania Yemen Mozambique Myanmar Cote d Ivoire Central African Republic Congo Chad Mauritania Malawi Guinea Dominican Republic Rwanda China Timor Leste Benin Uganda Ghana Liberia Burundi Cambodia Burkina Faso Mozambique Pakistan Nicaragua Iraq, Haiti Sao Tome and Principe Afghanistan DR Congo Mali Sierra Leone Cameroon

5 Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Assessment Food security all people, all times, have access to sufficient.food.. to meet their needs. (WFS - FAO 1996) Proxy indicator: Food Consumption Based on 7 day recall of diet diversity of household Number of foods eaten in 7 days Households 3,600,000 3,200,000 2,800,000 2,400,000 2,000,000 1,600,000 1,200, , ,000 0 North Sudan Darfur Current Food Security poor borderline adequate Southern + 3 Areas Sudan

6 Livelihood Analysis Households have different & multiple, livelihoods strategies to secure income and food Estimated annual income ($/household) agriculture production crop sale market gardening brewing unskilled labour handicrafts petty trade income porter gov allowance livestock rearing livestock sale cash crop sale fishing skilled labour natural resources trading salaries-wages begging other ordinary farmers farmers - small livestock farmers - remittances petty traders farmers -artisan unskilled laborers skilled labor, trader wage earners

7 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Coping Mechanisms 0 1 Poor Wealthy 2 3 Wealth 4 5 deciles % 3 rooms Grass roof No toilet Cooking wood Sleeping mats Bed Table Bicycle Motorcycle Hand tractor Cattle Poultry 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Households have reserves, wealth, coping mechanisms, networks Proxy: the asset wealth index Proportion of households Proportion of households Wealth Index

8 Understanding Vulnerability an example

9 Spatial Statistics Applied to Household data CFSVA Outputs : Representative at broad strata. However indicators are frequently required at smaller units, e.g. for geographical targeting of WFP interventions. Through the use of spatial statistics (GWR, others) and geostatistics CFSVA outputs are downscaled to smaller administrative units or continuous grids. This is based on a modelling the relationship of each indicator to other independent variables: Population density Accessibility (roads) Access to Water Hypsography (Slope) Forest Cover Land Cover Type Cropping Area Irrigated Area

10 Africa RiskView : Quantifying and Monitoring Drought-Related Food Security Risk Aims to quantify and monitor weather-related food security risk in Africa. Estimates the direct impact of observed weather data on vulnerable populations Focus currently on drought WRSI and Scaling Factor Vulnerability Costs estimates

11 Shock Impact Modelling Simulation in collaboration with FAO SIMS is based on Agriculture Household Model (Singh, Squire and Strauss ). SIMS is being applied in 7 countries: Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Malawi, Burkina Faso, Cambodia and Tajikistan.

12 Food Security Monitoring and evoucher Food Aid 11 Beneficiary receives scratch card 22 Beneficiary takes scratch card to retail store Retail store provides required ration Retail Agent receives electronic payment from WFP through MTZL system

13 Food Security Monitoring System Lite

14 Thank You! George Mu ammar Spatial Analyst, Food Security Analysis Service VAM - Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping Branch World Food Programme of the United

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