CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOOD SECURITY IN PAKISTAN. Arif Mahmood Chief Meteorologist Pakistan Meteorological Department.

Transcription

1 CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOOD SECURITY IN PAKISTAN Arif Mahmood Chief Meteorologist Pakistan Meteorological Department

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3 The country Profile The country has a long latitudinal extent stretching from the Arabian Sea in the south to the Himalayan mountains in north. It is located in sub-tropics and partially in temperate region 2

4 PAKISTAN PAKISTAN GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION 3

5 SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE Population: 161 million Growth Rate: 2.06% Literacy rate: 51% Male 53% Female 29% GDP (per capita): $982 Population below poverty line:32% Urban 22% Rural 39% Major Crops Wheat Rice Sugarcane Maize 4

6 The Climate Climatologically, most parts of Pakistan are arid to semi-arid with significant spatial and temporal variability in climatic parameters 59% of the annual rainfall is due to monsoon rains; a dominant hydrometeorological re-source for Pakistan 5

7 The Climate Greater Himalayan region above 35 N receives winter precipitation mostly in the form of snow and ice. The snow melt contribution keeps the rivers perennial throughout the year 6

8 The Climate The coastal climate is confined to a narrow strip along the coast in the south and southeast, while the north is dominated by the mountain climate. In between the climate is broadly of typical continental nature Coastal areas are vulnerable to sea level rise, Storm surges & associated flash flooding 7

9 The Climate Hot dry summers, Temperatures upto 53 0 c (127 0 F) Rainfall Annual average (weighted): 278 mm South: North: mm mm Monsoon Share: 59% 8

10 AGRICULTURE Largest sector of Economy (24% of GDP) 68% population rural; directly or indirectly depends on agriculture Industries almost entirely agro based >80% exports agro based Predominantly depends on irrigation 9

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12 Recent Trends in Climate Change (Pakistan) Rise in mean temp. of C in arid coastal are as, arid mountains and hyper arid plains 10-15% decrease in both winter and summer rainfall in coastal belt and hyper arid plains 18-32% increase in rainfall in monsoon zone especially the sub-humid and humid areas. 11

13 Recent Trends in Climate Change (Pakistan) 5% decrease in relative humidity in Balochistan 0.5 to 0.7% Increase in solar radiation over southern half of country. 3-5% decrease in cloud cover in central Pakistan with increase in sunshine hours 12

14 Recent Trends in Climate Change (Pakistan) 3-5% increase in Evapotranspirative rate due to 0.9 C temp. increase. Expanding aridity outside monsoon zone and arid regions 5% Increase in net irrigation water requirement with no change in rainfall % departure of rainfall from normal during strong EL Nino events 13

15 Recent Trends in Climate Change (Pakistan) Frequency of extreme events such as heavy rain, flash floods, dust/thunder/hailstorms, heat waves, density and persistence of fog is on rise. The intensity of systems also increased during last quarter of the 20th century. There is a visible shift in weather pattern from the normal. Viral and pollen ailments have been reported more common. 14

16 Evidence of Climate Change in Recent Past History s worst floods in Jhelum river in Pakistan Severe urban storm flooding in Lahore, Pakistan due to 500 mm rainfall in 24 hours on 20 th July Dokriani glacier in Himalayas, India retreated at a record pace. The glacier retreated 66 feet in 1998 despite severe winter. 15

17 Evidence of Climate Change in Recent Past The Gangorti glacier is retreating 98 feet per year. At this rate scientists predict the loss of all central and eastern Himalayan glaciers by 2035 Severe Cyclonic Storm hit the coastal areas of Pakistan and India History s worst drought in Pakistan 621 mm rainfall in Islamabad during 10 hours in the month of July causing history s worst flash floods in twin cities 16

18 Evidence of Climate Change in Recent Past Feb 2003 Feb 2003 July 2003 On 17 th Feb, four to five inches of rain fell in Hyderabad region. The storms acted like a mini tornado and damaged infrastructure. 9 people were reported dead. On 19 th Feb, 2 to 4 inches of rain associated with a suction vortex affected eastern Punjab which uprooted trees & electric poles, threw away heavy equipment Hundreds of villages of lower Sindh were 17 affected by flash floods.

19 Evidence of Climate Change in Recent Past Winter 2005 Record heavy snowfall in northern areas caused havoc and resulted in loss of lives and damage to property. Also heavy rains in Balochistan caused flash flooding and damage to properties and loss of lives. More than 5 million people affected and 832 people died due to extreme weather 18 conditions.

20 Maximum daily precipitation (mm) trend in northern parts of Pakistan from Balakot Dir Kakul Islamabad Jhelum Murree Muzaffarabad Sialkot

21 Maximum daily precipitation (mm) trend in MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF RAINFALL(mm) IN 24HRS IN CENTRAL PARTS OF PAKISTAN Central parts of Pakistan from A M O U N T (m m ) Lahore Faisalabad Multan D.I.Khan Quetta Zhob STATIONS

22 Maximum daily precipitation (mm) trend in Southern parts of Pakistan from MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF RAINFALL(mm) IN 24HRS IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF PAKISTAN A M O U N T ( m m ) Lasbella Pasni JacobabadNawabshah Chhor Hyderabad Badin Karachi STATIONS

23 IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES AND ECONOMY Less snowfall, slow deposits & glacierization Reduced river flows Reduction in storage of water in dams Less rainfall in arid areas, prolonged droughts 22

24 IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES AND AGRICULTURE Extreme weather events pose serious threat to food security. Farmer are more concerned to extreme events. They realize that not the 364 days of normal weather that scares them, but the one day of flash flooding. 23

25 IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES AND AGRICULTURE Heat-wave in sub-continent in 2005, reduced agricultural yields in affected countries by between 10 to 40% of the harvests for that year 24

26 Water Availability Situation Gross per capita water availability in Pakistan will decline from ~ 1350 m 3 /yr in 2001 to as low as ~ 858 m 3 /yr in 2025 Source: WAPDA 25

27 FOUR DIMENSIONS OF FOOD SECURITY AVAILABILITY production distribution exchange FOOD SECURITY ACCESS income food aid STABILITY supplies access UTILIZATION nutrient content food safety human health 26

28 LINKS BETWEEN CC & FOOD SECURITY All four dimensions of food security are likely to be affected by climate change The links between cc and food security have to date largely been explored in relation to food availability, particularly crop productivity 27

29 Vulnerability of Agriculture in Pakistan Increasing temperatures Changes in average rainfall Increased variability of Monsoon Changes in availability of irrigation water Water-stressed conditions in Arid and Semi-arid areas Extreme events, such as floods, droughts, heat waves, cold waves, cyclones, etc. 28

30 Impacts on Crop Productivity Wheat 29

31 Past trend in wheat yield in Faisalabad district ( ) Yield (kg/ha) Y = x t = (0.60) (15.37) Yield decrease not significant Year 30

32 Past trend of national average wheat yield ( ) Yield (kg/ha) y = x t = (35.89) (25.5) Yield Increase over the 44 year period =38.54 ± 1.07 kg/ha/year Years Wheat yield Linear (Wheat yield) 31

33 Impact of rise in temperature on wheat Growing Season Length in Northern & Southern Pakistan Temperature C (increase over baseline) Growing Season Length (Days) Northern Pakistan Southern Pakistan Mountainous Region (Humid) Sub-Mountainous Region (Sub-humid) Plains (Semi-arid) Plains (Arid) Baseline

34 Effect of rise in temperature on Wheat yields in agro-climatic zones of Pakistan (other factors remaining constant) W h e a t Y ie ld ( k g /h a ) Temperature Change ( o C) Northern Mountainous (Humid) Northern Sub- Mountainous (Sub-humid) Southern Plains (Semi arid) Southern Plains (Arid) 33

35 Effect of increase in CO 2 concentration W heat Yield (kg/ha) on wheat yield (other factors remaining constant) Southern Semiarid Plains Southern Arid Plains Northern Submountainous region Northern Mountainous Region CO 2 Concentration (ppm) 34

36 Wheat Yield in different agroclimatic zones of Pakistan under A2 Scenarios Wheat Yield (kg/ha) Base 2020s 2050s 2080s Northern Mountainous Region Southern Semi-arid Plains Northern Sub mountainous Southern Arid Plains 35

37 Climate Change Impact on Wheat Production in Pakistan by 2085 (A2 and B2 Scenarios ) Region Northern Mountainous Northern Submountainous Share in National Production (%) Baseline Yield (kg ha -1 ) % Change in yield in 2080 A2 Scenario B2 Scenario Southern Semi arid Plains Southern Arid Plains Pakistan

38 Rice 37

39 Effect of rise in Temperature on Growing Season Length of Rice in Semi arid areas of Punjab (Basmati Super transplanted in 1 st Week of July) Temperature ( C) Growing Season Length (Days) Baseline (increase over baseline)

40 Past trend of national average Rice yield ( ) Yield (Kg/ha) y = x t = (12.4) (22.1) Yield Increase over the 44 year period = 22.4 ± 1.8 kg/ha/year Years Rice Yield Linear (Rice Yield) 39

41 Effect of rise in temperature on Basmati rice yields in Southern Semi-arid Plains of Pakistan (other factors remaining constant) 4500 Rice Yield (kg/ha) Temperature change ( C) 40

42 Effect of rise in CO2 Concentration on Basmati Rice Yield (other factors remaining constant) Rice Yield (kg/ha) CO 2 Concentration (ppm) 41

43 Basmati Rice Yield in Southern Semi-arid Plains of Pakistan under A2 and B2 Scenarios Rice yield (kg/ha) Southern Semi -arid Plains A2 Southern Semi-arid Plains B Year Yield decrease by 2085:18% in A2 and 15% in B2 Scenarios 42

44 RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE There are two key ways of responding to climate change: - Adapt to the changes - Reduce through mitigation measures the sources (emission abatement) or enhance the sinks (sequestration) of GHG 43

45 RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE Both adaptation and mitigation measures are needed to ensure food security Mitigation measures are needed because agriculture contributes to CC. GHG emissions from the food and agriculture sector contribute over 30% of the current annual total emissions (agriculture 13.5%, deforestation 17.4%). 44

46 RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE The most stringent efforts cannot prevent further impacts of CC in the next few decades, which makes adaptation essential, particularly in addressing near-term impacts 45

47 RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE Two types of adaptation Autonomous adaptation may be insufficient given the projected magnitude of future changes in climate. Planned adaptation measures, i.e., response strategies, often multi-sectoral and involving individual citizens and national governments aimed at altering the adaptive capacity of the agricultural systems will be required. 46

48 CONCLUSION o o o o o o o Increasing temperature trends have shown reduced production of wheat and rice Rainfall may affect the rice production adversely while increasing CO2 will affect positively The growing season length has shrunk causing reduction in crop productions A2 scenario project increased yield in mountainous humid region by 2080 whereas reduced yield in other zones Though wheat projected yield in northern zones is likely to increase but has little contribution to total yield Projected yield of wheat and rice in A2 and B2 scenarios is likely to reduce Water availability is also likely to reduce and might have adverse affects on social and agriculture sectors 47

49 CONCLUSION o o o Impacts of climate change are likely to be felt most severely in developing countries like Pakistan because of resource and infrastructure constraints. The macro strategy may be rapid sustainable and equitable development that will increase income levels, education and technical skills, improve public food distribution, disaster preparedness and management, health care systems and reduce vulnerability. Micro strategy involves the management of sectors most sensitive to the climate change. This means developing new institutions or modifying existing ones to promote adaptation to climate change 48

50 Few Topics for Consideration o Adaptation strategies for Agriculture sector in relation to hydrometeorological changes in the region. o Quantitaive Vulnerability assessment of hydrometeorological resources during next century. o o Suitable Micro Strategies to promote adaptation in agri-sector to climate change. Climate Change Impact on renewable resources in the region. 49

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