NATURAL GAS UP ON BULLISH EIA STORAGE REPORT

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1 Daily Letter 1 Energy -- Oil and Gas, Exploration and Production John Gerdes jgerdes@canaccordgenuity.com NATURAL GAS UP ON BULLISH EIA STORAGE REPORT Storage overview The EIA reported an 89 Bcf storage build, 3 Bcf below the 92 Bcf build consensus. The East region showed a 46 Bcf build, the Producing region a 32 Bcf build and the West region showed an 11 Bcf build. Storage stands at 2,053 Bcf, ~24.9% below last year and ~3.9% below the five-year average. The data suggests the market is ~5.8 Bcfpd oversupplied on a weather-normalized quarterly moving average basis. Notably, gas was up $0.04 in response to the storage report. Supply/demand trends Over the past four weeks, gas-fired power demand has run 9.8 Bcfpd lower y/y, Canadian net imports are up 0.8 Bcfpd, Mexican net exports flat y/y, and LNG send-out is down ~0.3 Bcfpd y/y. Industrial demand has been ~1.2 Bcfpd higher y/y the past month. The price relationship between coal and gas has evolved toward incremental strength in coal-fired power generation and corresponding weakness in gas-fired power generation. In 2013, we anticipate coal-fired power generation should rise 100+ TWh (or ~2.3 Bcfpd), while gas-fired power generation should decline ~90 TWh (or ~1.9 Bcfpd). Recent U.S. supply data indicate Feb. 13 production averaged 66.2 Bcfpd, implying a more accelerated recovery from ~1.2 Bcfpd erosion observed late- 12 and early- 13 than our prior expectation. We anticipate U.S. supply was stable from Feb. 13 through Apr. 13 near ~66.2 Bcfpd and will erode fractionally thereafter in 13. In our optimistic view, rig activity should accelerate from ~350 rigs to ~400 rigs by mid-year and average ~435 rigs in 2H/13. Thesis In the wake of extremely weak gas prices, the E&P industry cut gas-directed activity by almost 60% to ~350 rigs recently, which is solidly below the ~550 gas rigs we estimate are necessary to maintain long-term market equilibrium. Reversion to colder-than-normal late winter weather and the potential onset of sustained US onshore supply erosion appear to firmly support our ~$4 average gas price this year. Our average 13 gas price forecast reflects an unchanged outlook for $4.25 in 3Q/13 and $4.50 in 4Q/13. In 14, given the need to increase gas-directed drilling activity ~40% (~550 gas rigs) to maintain market equilibrium, a ~$5.25 NYMEX gas price signal seems necessary assuming the E&P industry is comfortable remaining ~20% free cash flow negative. Canaccord Genuity is the global capital markets group of Canaccord Financial Inc. (CF : TSX CF. : LSE) The recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the Investment Analyst s personal, independent and objective views about any and all the Designated Investments and Relevant Issuers discussed herein. For important information, please see the Important Disclosures section in the appendix of this document or visit Canaccord Genuity s Online Disclosure Database.

2 Daily Letter 2 US STORAGE Inventory picture On May 17, US gas in storage was 2,053 Bcf, ~24.9% below last year and ~3.9% below the five-year average. Cooling season to date, a net gas storage build of 336 Bcf is above last year s 272 Bcf build and below the five-year average 427 Bcf build. Figure 1: US natural gas storage 4000 US Natural gas inventories (Bcf) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Five-year range Five-year average f Year-ago comparison Last week s 89 Bcf injection was less than last year s 95 Bcf build as degree days were up ~42% compared to year-ago levels. Figure 2: Y/Y comparison of changes in US gas storage Injections/(Withdraws) (Bcf) (25) (50) (75) (100) (125) (150) (175) (200) (225) (250) (275) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012 Injections/(Withdrawals) (Bcf) 2013 Injections/(Withdrawals) (Bcf)

3 Daily Letter 3 WEATHER DATA Weather-normalized change Assuming the same weather as last year, US storage data implies a ~5.8 Bcfpd y/y oversupply condition on a quarterly moving average basis. Figure 3: Weather-normalized Y/Y storage change vs. gas price Over/(Under) Supply (Bcfpd, 13-Wk. MA) (2) (4) $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 NYMEX Natural Gas Price ($/Mmbtu) (6) 1/09 7/09 1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12 1/13 $0 Over/(Under) Supply Gas Price Source: EIA, Bloomberg, Canaccord Genuity Degree days Customer-weighted degree days were 58 last week, up ~42% y/y and 1.5% above the long-term average. Cooling season to date, TDDs are ~14% higher than year-ago levels and ~3% above the long-term average. Figure 4: Total degree days Total Degree Days Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Source: NOAA, Canaccord Genuity Long-term Range Long-term Average

4 Daily Letter 4 Forecast NOAA forecasts 52 TDDs this week, down 5.5% y/y and 7% below seasonal norms. In its latest 6-10 day forecast, NOAA forecasts colder-than-normal conditions along the western US and warmer-than-normal weather in central and eastern U.S. Figure 5: 6-10 day temperature forecast Source: NOAA, Canaccord Genuity For June through August, NOAA predicts warmer-than-normal temperatures across the U.S. and normal temperatures in the northern U.S and West Coast. Figure 6: March-May temperature forecast Source: NOAA, Canaccord Genuity

5 Daily Letter 5 US GAS MARKET THESIS Substantive gas-to-coal power displacement now necessary to rebalance the gas market Since the start of the last year s injection-season, a ~900 Bcf y/y storage overhang has inverted to ~800 Bcf less gas in storage as a consequence of 4+ Bcfpd stronger gas-fired power demand in 12 and slightly colder-than-normal 12/ 13 winter weather. Gas-fired power generation, in a low gas price environment, served as the corrective mechanism to eliminate the storage surplus. As we suggested then, natural gas prices reached their nadir last April. Yet, the necessity of low gas prices, and corresponding anomalous strength in gas-fired power demand, has receded and gas-fired power demand should decrease significantly this year. Given our ~$4 gas price expectation this year, we expect gas-fired power to fall 2+ Bcfpd in 13 as coal-fired generation recaptures last year s transitory coal-to-gas switching, which is normalized for underlying structural de-emphasis in coal-fired generation. Maintaining gas price forecast this year, increasing gas price next year $0.25 to $5.25 We are largely maintaining our expectation that NYMEX gas prices average $4 in 13 and increasing our long-term forecast $0.25 to $5.25. Our analysis/outlook implies the marginal cost of supply resides outside the Marcellus Shale and requires ~$5.25 gas to capitalize certain non-marcellus gas assets sufficiently to generate modest growth. Our 13 estimate is in line with the strip, while our long-term forecast is ~$1 above the 14 strip. Gas-directed drilling overcorrected to the downside with extraordinarily weak gas prices In the wake of extremely weak gas prices, the E&P industry cut gas-directed activity by almost 60% to ~350 rigs recently, which is solidly below the ~550 gas rigs necessary to maintain long-term market equilibrium. Gas storage meaningfully lower y/y entering the 13/ 14 heating-season As shown in the chart below, gas in storage exited the 12/ 13 heating season ~800 Bcf below year ago levels, against the backdrop of only ~2% colder-than-normal winter weather. Our analysis suggests November 13 gas-in-storage should approximate 3,200 Bcf, which would be ~700 Bcf below last year and ~600 Bcf below 10/ 11. If this storage trajectory materializes, we expect natural gas to approach $5 late this year. Storage should struggle to exceed 3 Tcf entering the 13/ 14 heating season In 12, storage entering the cooling season was ~900 Bcf above year-ago levels though exited the 12/ 13 heating season ~700 Bcf below a year ago. We project a storage refill in 13 comparable to 12 (~1,400 Bcf) as supply and demand erode similarly (1.2/1.1 Bcfpd). Normalized inventories, mild US supply erosion implies need to increase gas-directed activity We expect US gas supply to erode fractionally this summer assuming gas-directed drilling activity averages ~400 rigs the first three quarters of this year. In 2H13, we expect gasdirected rig activity to modestly incline assuming gas prices recover to $4+. Without a $4+ gas price signal and corresponding increase in gas-directed drilling, our November 13 storage projection of ~3,200 Bcf could actually prove optimistic. Overall, our expectation is the US gas rig count averages ~430 rigs this year. Our US gas supply projection this year includes ~3.0 Bcfpd gas production growth associated with oil-directed drilling activity. Our associated gas supply projection anticipates a relatively stable oil rig count at ~1,350 rigs.

6 Daily Letter 6 US US GAS MARKET OUTLOOK Figure 7: US storage outlook Withdrawal Season Injection Season Withdrawal Season 11/12-03/13 (1) 4/13-10/13 (2) 11/13-03/14 (1) Bcfpd Bcf Bcfpd Bcf Bcfpd Bcf Prior Period Injection/(Withdraw) (1322) 1436 (2221) Fundamentals vs. Prior Period: Supply: U.S LNG Imports (0.3) (39) (0.2) (47) (0.2) (27) Canadian Imports, net Exports (1.0) (158) (1.3) (268) (0.7) (105) Total Supply Change (0.8) (116) (1.2) (267) (0.7) (113) Demand: Industrial Gas-fired Power (0.6) (97) (2.4) (516) (1.2) (176) Temperature/Conservation Variance (0.0) (0) (0.2) (40) Total Demand Change (1.6) (340) (0.7) (110) Net Over/(Under) Supply (1) (4.5) (899) (0.1) (3) Beginning Storage Storage Injection/(Withdraw) (2221) 1510 (2224) Ending Storage Notes: (1) Y/Y comparison over 151-day withdrawal season. (2) Y/Y comparison over 214-day injection season. Figure 8: Natural gas market outlook Natural Gas Price Forecast ($/Mmbtu) E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Canaccord Genuity $4.39 $4.04 $2.79 $4.02 $5.25 $ Futures Market $4.39 $4.04 $2.79 $4.02 $4.36 $4.43 $ U.S. Real GDP 2.39% 1.81% 2.20% 2.25% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% Incremental Y/Y Change (Bcfpd) Supply: U.S Canadian Imports (net of exports) (0.2) (1.3) (0.7) (1.1) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) LNG Imports (0.1) (0.2) (0.5) (0.3) (0.0) Total Supply Change (1.2) Demand: Industrial Gas-fired Power (2.1) (0.6) Total Demand Change (1.1) Storage (Bcf) April 1, November 1,

7 Daily Letter 7 US STORAGE MODEL Figure 9: 13 cooling season Total Degree Days Storage Injection Inventory Level Injection/TDD Week Date Current Yr Ago 16-Yr Avg Current Yr Ago 16-Yr Avg Current Yr Ago 16-Yr Avg Current Yr Ago 16-Yr Avg 14 4/5/ (14) (0.1) /12/ /19/ /26/ /3/ /10/ /17/ /24/ /31/ /7/ /14/ /21/ /28/ /5/ /12/ /19/ /26/ /2/ /9/ /16/ /23/ /30/ /6/ /13/ /20/ /27/ /4/ /11/ /18/ /25/ Total: Average: Figure 10: 13/ 14 heating season Total Degree Days Storage Withdrawal Inventory Level Withdrawal/TDD Week Date Current Yr Ago 17-Yr Avg Current Yr Ago 17-Yr Avg Current Yr Ago 17-Yr Avg Current Yr Ago 17-Yr Avg 44 11/1/ /8/ (2) (18) (14) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) 46 11/15/ (17) (38) (33) (0.1) (0.3) (0.2) 47 11/22/ (59) 4 (34) (0.4) 0.0 (0.2) 48 11/29/ (79) (73) (90) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) 49 12/6/ (132) 2 (107) (0.7) 0.0 (0.6) 50 12/13/ (142) (82) (127) (0.7) (0.5) (0.7) 51 12/20/ (136) (72) (117) (0.7) (0.5) (0.6) 52 12/27/ (139) (135) (122) (0.7) (0.7) (0.6) 1 1/3/ (148) (201) (124) (0.8) (0.9) (0.7) 2 1/10/ (173) (148) (174) (0.8) (0.9) (0.8) 3 1/17/ (182) (172) (168) (0.9) (0.9) (0.8) 4 1/24/ (171) (194) (155) (0.8) (0.9) (0.7) 5 1/31/ (153) (118) (139) (0.8) (0.7) (0.7) 6 2/7/ (158) (157) (138) (0.8) (0.8) (0.7) 7 2/14/ (154) (127) (118) (0.8) (0.7) (0.6) 8 2/21/ (135) (171) (105) (0.8) (0.9) (0.6) 9 2/28/ (123) (146) (81) (0.7) (0.8) (0.5) 10 3/7/ (65) (145) (66) (0.4) (0.9) (0.4) 11 3/14/ (25) (62) (39) (0.2) (0.5) (0.3) 12 3/21/ (13) (95) (9) (0.1) (0.6) (0.1) 13 3/28/ (30) (94) (13) (0.3) (0.7) (0.1) Total: (2224) (2221) (1953) Average: (101) (101) (89) (0.5) (0.6) (0.5)

8 Daily Letter 8 Investment risks 1) The future revenues, profitability and cash flow of the exploration and production companies covered in this report will depend substantially upon the prices and demand for oil and natural gas. The markets for these commodities are volatile and even relatively modest drops in prices can significantly affect an upstream oil and gas company's financial results and impede its growth. Prices for oil and natural gas fluctuate widely in response to a variety of factors beyond the control of an individual company, including relatively minor changes in supply and/or demand. 2) Estimating oil and gas reserves is complex and inherently imprecise. Actual future production, oil and natural gas prices, revenues, taxes, development expenditures, operating expenses and quantities of recoverable oil and gas reserves is likely to vary from estimates, perhaps significantly. In addition, individual companies may adjust estimates of proven reserves to reflect production history, results of exploration and development, prevailing oil and natural gas prices and other factors, many of which are beyond their control.

9 Daily Letter 9 APPENDIX: IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Analyst Certification: Distribution of Ratings: Global Stock Ratings (as of 28 March 2013) Canaccord Genuity Ratings System: Each authoring analyst of Canaccord Genuity whose name appears on the front page of this research hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in this research accurately reflect the authoring analyst s personal, independent and objective views about any and all of the designated investments or relevant issuers discussed herein that are within such authoring analyst s coverage universe and (ii) no part of the authoring analyst s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the authoring analyst in the research. Coverage Universe IB Clients Rating # % % Buy % 34.0% Speculative Buy % 55.0% Hold % 13.0% Sell % 6.0% 1004* 100.0% *Total includes stocks that are Under Review BUY: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of over 10% during the next 12 months. HOLD: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of 0-10% during the next 12 months. SELL: The stock is expected to generate negative risk-adjusted returns during the next 12 months. NOT RATED: Canaccord Genuity does not provide research coverage of the relevant issuer. Risk-adjusted return refers to the expected return in relation to the amount of risk associated with the designated investment or the relevant issuer. Risk Qualifier: SPECULATIVE: Stocks bear significantly higher risk that typically cannot be valued by normal fundamental criteria. Investments in the stock may result in material loss. Canaccord Genuity is the business name used by certain wholly owned subsidiaries of Canaccord Financial Inc., including Canaccord Genuity Inc., Canaccord Genuity Limited, Canaccord Genuity Corp., and Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited, an affiliated company that is 50%-owned by Canaccord Financial Inc. The authoring analysts who are responsible for the preparation of this research are employed by Canaccord Genuity Corp. a Canadian broker-dealer with principal offices located in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, Montreal, or Canaccord Genuity Inc., a US broker-dealer with principal offices located in Boston, New York, San Francisco and Houston, a US broker-dealer with principal offices located in New York or Canaccord Genuity Limited., a UK broker-dealer with principal offices located in London and Edinburgh (UK), or Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited, an Australian broker-dealer with principal offices located in Sydney and Melbourne. In the event that this is compendium research (covering six or more relevant issuers), Canaccord Genuity and its affiliated companies may choose to provide by reference specific disclosures of the subject companies or its policies and procedures regarding the dissemination of research. To access this material or for more information, please refer to or send a request to Canaccord Genuity Corp. Research, Attn: Disclosures, P.O. Box Pacific Centre, Granville Street, Vancouver, BC, Canada V7Y 1H2 or disclosures@canaccordgenuity.com. The authoring analysts who are responsible for the preparation of this research have received (or will receive) compensation based upon (among other factors) the Corporate Finance/Investment Banking revenues and general profits of Canaccord Genuity. However, such authoring analysts have not received, and will not receive, compensation that is directly based upon or linked to one or more specific Corporate Finance/Investment Banking activities, or to recommendations contained in the research. Canaccord Genuity and its affiliated companies may have a Corporate Finance/Investment Banking or other relationship with the issuer that is the subject of this research and may trade in any of the designated investments mentioned herein either for their own account or the accounts of their customers, in good faith or in the normal course of market making. Accordingly, Canaccord Genuity or their affiliated companies, principals or employees (other than the authoring analyst(s) who prepared this research) may at any time have a long or short position in any such designated investments, related designated investments or in options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon. Some regulators require that a firm must establish, implement and make available a policy for managing conflicts of interest arising as a result of publication or distribution of research. This research has been prepared in accordance with Canaccord Genuity s policy on managing conflicts of interest, and information barriers or firewalls have been used where appropriate. Canaccord Genuity s policy is available upon request. The information contained in this research has been compiled by Canaccord Genuity from sources believed to

10 Daily Letter 10 be reliable, but (with the exception of the information about Canaccord Genuity) no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Canaccord Genuity, its affiliated companies or any other person as to its fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness. Canaccord Genuity has not independently verified the facts, assumptions, and estimates contained herein. All estimates, opinions and other information contained in this research constitute Canaccord Genuity s judgement as of the date of this research, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility or liability. Canaccord Genuity s salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and our proprietary trading desk that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Canaccord Genuity s affiliates, principal trading desk, and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research. This research is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any designated investments discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be prohibited. As a result, the designated investments discussed in this research may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. This research is not, and under no circumstances should be construed as, a solicitation to act as a securities broker or dealer in any jurisdiction by any person or company that is not legally permitted to carry on the business of a securities broker or dealer in that jurisdiction. 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This research is distributed in the United Kingdom and elsewhere Europe, as third party research by Canaccord Genuity Limited, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. This research is for distribution only to persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients only and is exempt from the general restrictions in section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 on the communication of invitations or inducements to engage in investment activity on the grounds that it is being distributed in the United Kingdom only to persons of a kind described in Article 19(5) (Investment Professionals) and 49(2) (High Net Worth companies, unincorporated associations etc) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended). It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. This material is not for distribution in the United Kingdom or elsewhere in Europe to retail clients, as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority. This research is sent to you by Canaccord Genuity Wealth (International) Limited (CGWI) for information purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to purchase or sell investments or related financial instruments. This research has been produced by an affiliate of CGWI for circulation to its institutional clients and also CGWI. Its contents have been approved by CGWI and we are providing it to you on the basis that we believe it to be of interest to you. This statement should be read in conjunction with your client agreement, CGWI's current terms of business and the other disclosures and disclaimers contained within this research. If you are in any doubt, you should consult your financial adviser. CGWI is licensed and regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission, the Jersey Financial Services Commission and the Isle of Man Financial Supervision Commission. CGWI is registered in Guernsey and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Canaccord Financial Inc. This research is distributed in Australia by Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited ABN holder of AFS Licence No To the extent that this research contains any advice, this is limited to general advice only. Recipients should take into account their own personal circumstances before making an investment decision. Clients wishing to effect any transactions in any financial products discussed in the research should do so through a qualified representative of Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited. Canaccord

11 Daily Letter 11 Genuity Wealth Management is a division of Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited. Additional information is available on request. Copyright Canaccord Genuity Corp Member IIROC/Canadian Investor Protection Fund Copyright Canaccord Genuity Limited Member LSE, authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Copyright Canaccord Genuity Inc Member FINRA/SIPC Copyright Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited Authorized and regulated by ASIC. All rights reserved. All material presented in this document, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Canaccord Genuity Corp., Canaccord Genuity Limited, Canaccord Genuity Inc. or Canaccord Financial Inc. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of the entities listed above.

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