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9 M J M j {1,..., J M } i j u ij = X j β αp j + ξ j + ζ ig + (1 σ)ϵ ij, X j ξ j j ϵ ij ζ ig g
10 i ζ + (1 σ)ϵ σ δ j = X j β α i p j + ξ j j D g = ( ) k g δk 1 σ s j = ( ) δj 1 σ Dg σ (1 + Dg 1 σ ), l ij > 0 i j l ij = l j i j j L j = Ms j l j, M s j j
11 λ λ s j 1 s 0 ( ) ( ) sj sj (s j ) (s 0 ) = X j β αp j + ξ j + σ δ j + σ, 1 s 0 1 s 0 σ s j s
12 e j = αp j (1 s j ) ( ) e j = α 1 σ 1 σ s j 1 s 0 (1 σs j ) p j
13 (Ljt) = β 0 + β 1 G jt + β 2 G jt + ϕ j + µ t + ϵ jt, L jt j t G jt G jt j t t (β 1 ) 1
14 ϕ j µ t G jt = (0.0578) 1 (q it ) = ( m M β m 1(t couponstart = m) couponstart ) + β after G jt + ϕ j + µ t + ϵ jt, (β m ) 1 m
15 E[L j ] α j,m = ((β m ) 1)E[L j ], m = 1,..., M, after m mc = mc =
16 mc = π j = 0.5p d j q G j p j qj G mc + α jt1,1(1 mc) + δ t 1 T 1 t 2 T 2 α jt2,2 ( pj qj G + α ) j,1 (1 mc), α j,1 α jt1,1 j t 1 α jt2,2 t 2 T 1 T 2 p d j p j q G j δ = 0.9 λ α 1 α 1 (1 λ) λ [ π j = 0.5p d j qj G p j qj G mc p j qj G + t 1 T 1 α jt1,1(1 mc) + δ t 1 T 1 α jt1,1(1 λ) λ t 2 T 2 α jt2,2 (1 mc). λ ] (1 mc) λ λ
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18 i ϵ ij E[CS] = α j J G { δj 1 σ } 1 + { } δj, 1 σ j J 0 α J G J 0
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24 σ R 2 p < 0.05 p < 0.01 p < 0.001
25 < < <
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