Poverty and Public Assistance For Children and Families in Maryland

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1 (PovTCA1999rev042706) Poverty and Public Assistance For Children and Families in Maryland Cynthia Taeuber The Jacob France Institute, University of Baltimore and U.S. Census Bureau Jane Staveley The Jacob France Institute, University of Baltimore Richard Larson The Family Investment Administration The Maryland Department of Human Resources June 2003 for The Family Investment Administration The Maryland Department of Human Resources

2 2 Poverty and Public Assistance For Children and Families in Maryland Cynthia Taeuber, Jane Staveley, and Richard Larson Executive Summary Overall, Maryland had a relatively strong economy in both 1989 and 1999 but wages among unskilled and semi-skilled workers eroded because of the increase of low-paying service jobs, the loss of higher-paying manufacturing jobs, and the failure of the minimum wage to keep pace with inflation. As a result, there wasn t much change in poverty rates between 1989 and In most jurisdictions, there was little difference between the number and share of Maryland s poor and the number and share receiving public assistance. Urban jurisdictions, however, were more likely to have more poor than public assistance recipients in Children Children in Baltimore City were more likely to be poor and more likely to receive public assistance than in any other jurisdiction. The children of Prince George s and Baltimore counties are also a noticeable part of Maryland s child poverty and public assistance caseloads. Poverty rate About 1 in 9 children in Maryland were poor in Baltimore City had the highest estimated 1999 poverty rate for children (33 percent) followed by the counties of Western Maryland and the Eastern Shore. There was little change in poverty rates for children from 1989 to 1999 for any county except Prince George s where the rate increased from about 7 to 10 percent. Number of poor children Maryland had about 439,000 poor people in Of these poor, about 142,000 were children under 18. In 1989, there were an estimated 128,500 poor children. There were fewer poor children in Baltimore City in 1999 than in Nevertheless, Baltimore City had the largest share of Maryland s poor children in both years.

3 3 Baltimore City had about 48,800 poor children in 1999, and more than other jurisdictions in Maryland and about one-third of the state s poor children. Another onethird lived in three counties: Prince George s (about 20,100), and in Montgomery and Baltimore counties (about 13,500 each). Anne Arundel County followed with about 8,100 poor children. Most counties in the Baltimore and Washington regions of Maryland experienced some increase in the number of poor children in 1999 compared with Prince George s County had roughly 7,900 more poor children in Baltimore City, with about 8,400 fewer poor children in 1999 than in 1989, was an exception. Most of the remaining counties had no significant change in the number of poor children over the decade. Changes in the receipt of public assistance for children Public assistance caseloads dropped dramatically from 1989 to 1999 in every jurisdiction. In Maryland, in 1999, there were about 142,000 poor children, an average of nearly 61,800 children a month received Temporary Cash Assistance (TCA). In 1989, an estimated 128,500 children were poor and, on average, about 118,300 children a month received benefits from Maryland s Aid to Families With Dependent Children (AFDC) program. Children in Baltimore City and Baltimore and Prince George's counties were relatively more likely than those in other areas to receive public assistance in Baltimore City had nearly 6 in 10 of Maryland s child recipients of public assistance. Children in Western Maryland and on the Eastern Shore experienced relatively high poverty rates in 1999 but the likelihood that they received public assistance was generally about average for the state. Mothers Heading Families Alone Number of poor families headed by mothers alone and receipt of public assistance The Census 2000 in Maryland counted about 191,000 families headed by mothers alone with children under 18 years related to them, an increase from About 43,800 were poor in On average, about 36,100 families of this type received public assistance each month in 1999, a reduction of about 43 percent from There was little difference in the

4 4 number of such families who were poor in 1989 (42,170) but more received public assistance that year (monthly average of 63,100). The number of poor families of this type, and the number receiving public assistance, was about the same in most counties in 1989 and In the urban counties of Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Montgomery, and Prince George s, however, the estimated number of poor families was slightly higher than the number receiving public assistance. Poverty rate The poverty rates of families headed by mothers alone generally declined from 1989 to Except for Baltimore City, the rates were lower in the Baltimore and Washington regions than in the rest of Maryland s counties in both 1989 and Baltimore City s share Baltimore City had the largest share of Maryland s poor female-headed families with related children (39 percent in 1999; 50 percent in 1989) and the highest percentage receiving public assistance (58 percent in 1999; 57 percent in 1989). The number of poor families of this type did decline in Baltimore City, however, with about 21,200 such families in 1989 and about 17,200 in Reasons for Differences Between Data Sets We expect the census estimates of poor to be higher than the counts of families and children who received benefits from public assistance programs. Not all poor people apply for public assistance and not all poor families are eligible for public assistance. Data collection methods and concepts differ among data sets. The poverty statistics are collected from a sample of the population, one source of error. There are coverage errors because the decennial census misses some people and counts others more than once.

5 5 Table of Contents Executive Summary 2 Introduction Changes in public assistance programs from 1989 to Data quality and the decennial censuses.. 10 Children Total Children: 1990 and 2000 Census Counts..11 Poor Children and Receipt of Public Assistance...17 Poverty rates among children Number of poor children.. 27 Share of Maryland s poor children in each county Table A. County s Estimated Share of Maryland s Poor Children: 1989 and Changes in public assistance, Number and share of poor children and public assistance child recipients Families Headed by Mothers Alone Total Families With Related Children Under 18 Headed by Mothers Alone...45 Poverty and Receipt of Public Assistance by Families With Related Children Headed by Mothers Alone.48 Changes in number of families headed by mothers alone who were poor compared with such families receiving public assistance...48 Poverty rates of families headed by mothers alone...58 Each county s share of Maryland s families headed by mothers alone who were poor compared with recipients of public assistance...61 Text Charts Children 1. Number of Children Under 18 in Maryland: 1990 and Percent Change in Population Under Age 18 in Maryland: Percentage of Population Under Age 18: 1990 and Poverty Rate of Children in Maryland: 1989 and 1999

6 6 5. Poverty and Public Assistance Rates of Children in Maryland: Poverty and Public Assistance Rates of Children in Maryland: Ratio of Public Assistance Rates to Poverty Rates for Children in Maryland: 1989 and Estimated Number of Poor Children in Maryland: 1989 and County's Share of Maryland's Poor Children: 1989 and Percent Change in Children Receiving Public Assistance in Maryland: Number of Child Recipients of AFDC in CY1989 and of TCA in CY1999: Maryland 12. County s Share of Maryland s Child Recipients of AFDC in CY1989 and of TCA in CY Number of Children Who Were Poor in 1989 Compared With Monthly Average AFDC Recipients in Calendar Year 1989: Maryland 14. Number of Children Who Were Poor in 1999 Compared With TCA Recipient Children in Calendar Year 1999: Maryland 15. County s Share of Maryland s Children Who Were Poor Compared with TCA Recipient Children in County s Share of Maryland s Children Who Were Poor Compared with Monthly Average AFDC Recipients in CY1989 Families Headed by Mothers Alone 17. Total Number of Female Householder Families, No Husband Present, With Related Children Under 18, 1990 and 2000: Maryland 18. Estimated Number of Poor Female-Headed Families, No Husband Present, With Related Children in Maryland: 1989 and Percent Change in Public Assistance Cases for Female-Headed Households With Related Children, No Husband Present, Maryland: Number of Female-Headed Families With Related Children Who Were Poor Compared With Number Who Received TCA in CY1999: Maryland 21. Number of Female-Headed Families With Related Children Who Were Poor Compared With Monthly Average AFDC Basic Cases in CY1989: Maryland 22. Poverty Rate of Female-Headed Families With Related Children in 1989 and 1999: Maryland 23. County s Share of Maryland s Female-Headed Families With Children Who Were Poor Compared With Those Receiving TCA in CY County s Share of Maryland s Female-Headed Families With Children Who Were Poor in 1989 Compared With Monthly Average AFDC Basic Cases in CY 1989

7 7 Text Tables 1. Poverty Status in 1999 of Families, by Family Type, by Work Experience of Householder and Spouse 2. Number of Children Under 18 in Maryland Counties: 1990 and Percentage of the Area s Population Under 18 and Percentage Change in Maryland s Counties: Poverty Rate of Children Under 18 in Maryland: 1989 and Poverty and Public Assistance Rates of Children in 1989 and 1999: Maryland 6. Census 2000 Estimates of Total Children, Poor Children in CY 1999, and TCA Child Recipients in CY 1999: Maryland Census Estimates of Total Children, Poor Children in CY 1989, and AFDC Child Recipients in CY 1989: Maryland 8. Estimated Number of Poor Children in 1989 and 1999: Maryland 9. Family Type and Presence of Children in 1990 and 2000: Maryland 10. Census 2000 Estimates of Female-Headed Families, No Husband Present, With Related Children Under 18 Who Were Poor in 1999 Compared With TCA Caseloads in 1999: Maryland Census Estimates of Female-Headed Families, No Husband Present, With Related Children Under 18 Who Were Poor in 1989 Compared with AFDC Caseloads in 1989: Maryland 12. Percentage Change in Public Assistance for Female-Headed Families, No Husband Present, With Related Children Under 18 from 1989 to 1999: Maryland 13. Poverty Rate in 1989 and 1999 of Female-Headed Families, No Husband Present, With Related Children Under 18: Maryland 14. County s Share of Female-Headed Families, No Husband Present, With Related Children Under 18 Who Were Poor in 1999 Compared with TCA Recipient Families in 1999: Maryland 15. County s Share of Female-Headed Families, No Husband Present, With Related Children Under 18 Who Were Poor in 1989 Compared with AFDC Recipient Families in 1989: Maryland Appendices A-1. Income Question in Census 2000 Sample (Long Form) A-2. Income Question in 1990 Census Sample (Long Form)

8 B. Subjects in 1990 and 2000 Censuses and Census in Which Subject Was First Asked C. Determination of Eligibility for TCA in

9 9 Poverty and Public Assistance For Children and Families in Maryland Cynthia Taeuber, Jane Staveley, and Richard Larson Introduction The purpose of this study is to examine changes in poverty and public assistance recipiency over the 1990s among Maryland s children and families headed by mothers alone. We also examine data quality issues and the correspondence between the poverty estimates from the 1990 and 2000 decennial censuses and program counts of children receiving assistance from Maryland s Temporary Cash Assistance (TCA) program. Changes in public assistance programs from 1989 to 1999 In 1989, public assistance was an entitlement program called Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC). In 1996, under the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity and Reconciliation Act (PRWORA), there was a significant change in how welfare programs were funded as well as in the philosophy of how assistance to needy families should be provided. PRWORA provided Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) Block Grants from the federal government to state governments. It instituted work requirements, supports to assist families to work, and limits to the time that families could receive public assistance. Maryland s State Plan for TANF described the shift as moving from an income maintenance perspective to one of investing in families through programs designed to help them move from welfare to work. 1 This includes support for childcare, work training, and travel costs. Maryland named its TANF program, Temporary Cash Assistance (TCA) and the original plan was in effect from January 1997 through December The second plan began in January 2000 and it was revised to improve its flexibility, develop programs that reach all families, promote success at work and, in some jurisdictions, turn welfare offices into comprehensive service centers. 2 Table 1. POVERTY STATUS IN 1999 OF FAMILIES, BY FAMILY TYPE, BY WORK EXPERIENCE 1 Maryland Department of Human Resources, Family Investment Administration, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, TANF State Plan, October 1, 2002, pg. I. 2 Ibid.

10 10 OF HOUSEHOLDER AND SPOUSE - Universe: Families Data Set: Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF 3) - Sample Data, PCT60 Data based on a sample. For further information on confidentiality protection, sampling and nonsampling errors, and definitions see Income in 1999 below poverty level Married-couple family Householder worked full-time, year-round in 1999 Total, below poverty level Total, Marriedcouple family Total, Householder worked fulltime, yearround in 1999 Spouse worked fulltime, yearround in 1999 Spouse worked less than full-time, year-round in 1999 Spouse did not work in 1999 Total State and County families Maryland 1,368,647 83,232 25,999 4, ,024 3,300 Allegany 19,010 1, Anne Arundel 129,964 4,626 1, Baltimore County 199,946 9,058 3, Calvert 20, Caroline 8, Carroll 41,425 1, Cecil 23,350 1, Charles 32,500 1, Dorchester 8, Frederick 52,278 1, Garrett 8, Harford 60,722 2, Howard 66,355 1, Kent 5, Montgomery 226,024 8,428 3, Prince George's 199,524 10,641 3, Queen Anne's 11, St. Mary's 22,590 1, Somerset 5, Talbot 9, Washington 34,235 2, Wicomico 21,893 1, Worcester 13, Baltimore City 148,167 27,864 5,

11 11 With welfare reform, many parents in low-income families moved into the work place 3 and the number of families receiving public assistance dropped dramatically. Data quality and the decennial censuses A source of error in the data is when respondents do not understand whether a question applies to them. Appendixes A-1 and A-2 show the Census 2000 and 1990 Census questions on income and the section that asks about cash public assistance. Census 2000 asked about any public assistance or welfare payments from the state or local welfare office in 1999 for each household member 15 years and older. From the data shown later in this report, it does not appear that respondent confusion about the question was a source of sizeable error. We expect the estimated number of poor to be higher than the counts of those receiving assistance because not all poor people apply for public assistance and not all are eligible. But, because data collection methods and concepts are not the same, there are differences in what sample surveys and program records measure. A previous report 4 focused on data quality issues related to the 1990 Census, particularly the issue of undercounting poor households and differences among race groups. We examined why there were apparent disparities between the 1990 Census sample estimates of poverty and the counts of children and families that received public assistance payments in 1989 from the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program. That report concluded that once we controlled for sampling error and differences in concepts, there were no real differences in the results except in Baltimore City. Once the sampling error of the poverty estimates from the census sample was taken into account, every county had a higher estimate of poor children than they had children in families receiving AFDC payments. In Baltimore City, 3 Women with no husband present headed about 50,000 of Maryland s more than 83,000 families that were poor in 1999 (Table 1). In about 5,300 of the 50,000 poor families headed by women alone, the age of the woman was 65 and older (U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000, STF3, Table P89). Baltimore City had about 28,000 of the state s total poor families and women with no husband present headed nearly 20,000 poor families; about 2,500 of these were women aged 65 and older. In Baltimore City, according to the responses to Census 2000, about half of Baltimore City s women heading families alone did not work in 1999, about 2,000 worked year round and full time (35 or more hours a week), and roughly 8,000 worked part time or part of the year. The Census Bureau did not produce a similar tabulation of the 1990 responses for comparison. 4 Cynthia Taeuber, Jane Staveley, and Richard Larson, Issues in Comparisons of Decennial Census Poverty Estimates With Public Assistance Caseloads in Maryland, paper for the National Association for Welfare Research and Statistics, August See:

12 12 however, about 10,000 more children received AFDC than the census estimated were poor. Sampling error and differences in the definition and reporting of income did not explain the unexpected results. We concluded that the most plausible explanation was the undercount of African-American children in the 1990 Census of Baltimore City. We cannot do a similar analysis of household coverage for Census Nationally, there is reason to believe there was an overcount of the population and relatively less difference than in the 1990 Census between the counts of Whites and those of other racial groups. We cannot extrapolate the national results to individual jurisdictions in Maryland. 5 Children Total Children: 1990 and 2000 Census Counts To set the context for the discussion below on poor children, we provide here a picture of change in the number of total children in Maryland s jurisdictions. Maryland had nearly 1.4 million children according to Census 2000, an increase of about 194,000 children since the 1990 Census was taken (Table 2, Chart 1). Only Baltimore City experienced a noticeable decline in the number of children over the 1990s. Allegany, Garrett, and Somerset counties also had slightly fewer children in 2000 than in While Baltimore City had the largest percentage decline in children over the decade (about 18,500 fewer children in 2000, a 10-percent decrease over the decade as shown in Chart 2), the proportion of the City s population under 18 increased somewhat (Chart 3). Children represented anywhere from twenty-to-thirty percent of the population in Maryland s counties in 1990 and The proportions increased a bit over the 1990s 5 (1) David A. Freedman and Kenneth W. Wachter, On the Likelihood of Improving the Accuracy of the Census Through Statistical Adjustment, Science and Statistics: A Festscrift for Terry Speed. Institute of Mathematical Statistics Monograph 40 (2003) pp D. R. Goldstein and S. Dudoit, eds. Available at: and (2) U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Testing, Experimentation, and Evaluation Program Summary, at

13 in the Baltimore and Washington regions. Southern Maryland counties generally had a higher proportion of children than did those in other regions (Table 3). 13

14 250, , , ,000 50,000 0 Chart 1. Only Baltimore City experienced a noticeable decline in children from Number of Children Under 18 in Maryland: 1990 and Census count Census 2000 count 14 BALTIMORE REGION Anne Arundel Baltimore County Carroll Harford Howard Baltimore City WASHINGTON REGION Frederick Montgomery Prince George's SOUTHERN MD Calvert Charles St. Mary WESTERN MD Allegany Garrett Washington UPPER EASTERN SHORE Caroline Cecil Kent Queen Anne's Talbot LOWER EASTERN SHORE Dorchester Somerset Wicomico Worcester Number Decline in number Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 and 2000 Censuses (SF1)

15 15 Table 2. Number of Children Under 18 in Maryland Counties: 1990 and 2000 Red - Decrease in number of children, State, Region, County 1990 Census count of children under 18 Census 2000 count of children under 18 Maryland 1,162,241 1,356,172 BALTIMORE REGION Anne Arundel 105, ,636 Baltimore County 151, ,363 Carroll 32,770 41,838 Harford 48,782 60,965 Howard 48,482 69,543 Baltimore City 179, ,353 WASHINGTON REGION Frederick 39,731 53,887 Montgomery 178, ,758 Prince George's 177, ,602 SOUTHERN MD Calvert 14,600 22,056 Charles 29,756 34,651 St. Mary 21,553 24,080 WESTERN MD Allegany 16,365 15,406 Garrett 7,620 7,484 Washington 27,536 30,914 UPPER EASTERN SHORE Caroline 7,100 7,978 Cecil 19,508 23,789 Kent 3,805 3,985 Queen Anne's 8,341 10,306 Talbot 6,433 7,324 LOWER EASTERN SHORE Dorchester 6,917 7,151 Somerset 4,727 4,579 Wicomico 18,110 20,965 Worcester 7,697 9,559 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 and 2000 Censuses (SF1)

16 Chart 2. Baltimore City had 10 percent fewer children in 2000 than in 1990 Percent Change in Population Under Age 18 in Maryland: Maryland BALTIMORE REGION Anne Arundel Baltimore County Carroll Harford Howard Baltimore City WASHINGTON REGION Frederick Montgomery Prince George's SOUTHERN MD Calvert Charles St. Mary WESTERN MD Allegany Garrett Washington UPPER EASTERN SHORE Caroline Cecil Kent Queen Anne's Talbot LOWER EASTERN SHORE Dorchester Somerset Wicomico Worcester Percent change Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census counts (SF1)

17 Chart 3. Children were a somewhat larger part of the Baltimore and Washington Region population in 2000 than in 1990 Percentage of Population Under Age 18: 1990 and Maryland BALTIMORE REGION Anne Arundel Baltimore County Carroll Harford Howard Baltimore City WASHINGTON REGION Frederick Montgomery Prince George's SOUTHERN MD Calvert Charles St. Mary WESTERN MD Allegany Garrett Washington UPPER EASTERN SHORE Caroline Cecil Kent Queen Anne's Talbot LOWER EASTERN SHORE Dorchester Somerset Wicomico Worcester Percent 1990 Census Census 2000 Decline Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 and 2000 Censuses (SF1)

18 18 Table 3. Percentage of the Area's Population Under 18 and Percentage Change in Maryland's Counties: Red - Decrease in number of children, State, Region, County Percentage of population under 18 in 1990 Percentage of population under 18 in 2000 Percentage change in count of children, Maryland BALTIMORE REGION Anne Arundel Baltimore County Carroll Harford Howard Baltimore City WASHINGTON REGION Frederick Montgomery Prince George's SOUTHERN MD Calvert Charles St. Mary WESTERN MD Allegany Garrett Washington UPPER EASTERN SHORE Caroline Cecil Kent Queen Anne's Talbot LOWER EASTERN SHORE Dorchester Somerset Wicomico Worcester Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 and 2000 Censuses, (SF1)

19 19 Poor Children and Receipt of Public Assistance Here we report on poverty among children and changes in their receipt of public assistance in 1989 and 1999 in Maryland, its regions, and its counties. Such statistics offer one way to evaluate the economic well being of the people of the state. Overall, Maryland had a relatively strong economy in both 1989 and In fact, Maryland s economy grew faster than the overall U.S. economy in According to a study of income inequality by Maryland s Department of Planning, during the latter half of the 1990s, Maryland experienced strong employment gains and rising real incomes while income inequality [grew] at about the same pace as it had in the previous decade. 7 The study points out that this was partly due to the erosion of wages among unskilled and semi-skilled workers because of the increase of low-paying service jobs, the loss of higher-paying manufacturing jobs, and two decades of the minimum wage failing to keep pace with inflation. Poverty rates among children Given the erosion of wages among those with lower-level work skills, it is not surprising to learn from the results of Census 2000 that in Maryland, even though the economy was strong overall, poverty 8 rates among children were about the same in 1999 as they were in 1989 (Chart 4 and Table 4). About 1 in 9 children in Maryland were poor in 6 Maryland Department of Planning, Maryland s Economy Drives Migration Population Gains, pg. 4, available at: Migr_idx.htm 7 Maryland Department of Planning, Income Inequality Continues to Grow in Maryland, pp. 1-2, available at: 8 The estimates of poverty in this report are based on interviewing a sample of the population. As with all surveys, the estimates may differ from the actual values. The appendix tables, and some of the charts, show 90-percent confidence intervals, a measure of the uncertainty of the estimates of poverty. The degree of uncertainty because of sampling variability is considered in the analyses in this report. Poverty refers to money income before taxes only (noncash benefits and assets, for example, are not included). Poverty is defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget in Statistical Policy Directive No. 14 (see: As stated on the Census Bureau s website, While the thresholds in some sense represent families' needs, the official poverty measure should be interpreted as a statistical yardstick rather than as a complete description of what people and families need to live. The income thresholds for poverty vary by family size and composition. For example, in 1999, the poverty threshold for a single parent and two children was $13,423 and for one with four children, it was $19,578. Additional information is available at

20 , 9 a poverty rate that was not significantly different from Maryland s children were somewhat more likely to be poor than the state s people who were 65 and older. It was only Prince George s County where the poverty rate of children increased over the decade, from about 7 percent to 10 percent. About one-third of Baltimore City s children were poor in both periods, the largest share of any jurisdiction. The counties of Western Maryland and the Eastern Shore had the next highest poverty rates for children. These were also the jurisdictions with the greatest degree of income inequality according to the study of the Maryland Department of Planning Nationally, the poverty rate for children was nearly 17 percent. See: Joseph Dalaker and Bernadette D. Proctor, U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, Series P60-210, Poverty in the United States: 1999, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, pg. v. 10 Maryland Department of Planning, op.cit., pg. 3.

21 Chart 4. Child poverty rates were highest in Baltimore City, Western Maryland, and the Eastern Shore Poverty Rate of Children in Maryland: 1989 and Census 2000 Census * * Difference in percentage of poor children between 1989 and 1999 is not statistically significant Increase in poverty rate, * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Maryland BALTIMORE REGION Anne Arundel Baltimore County Carroll Harford Howard Baltimore City WASHINGTON REGION Frederick Montgomery Prince George's SOUTHERN MD Calvert Charles St. Mary WESTERN MD Allegany Garrett Washington UPPER EASTERN SHORE Caroline Cecil Kent Queen Anne's Talbot LOWER EASTERN SHORE Dorchester Somerset Wicomico Worcester Rate * Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 Census (STF3, P117) and Census 2000 (SF3, P87)

22 Table 4. Poverty Rate of Children Under 18 in Maryland: 1989 and 1999 Red - increase in the estimated number of poor children, Other - Difference between 1989 and 1999 not statistically significant 1990 Census poverty rate, lower bound of 90-percent confidence interval 1990 Census poverty rate, upper bound of 90- percent confidence interval Census 2000 poverty rate, lower bound of 90- percent confidence interval State, Region, County Poverty rate for children, 1989 Poverty rate for children, 1999 Maryland Census 2000 poverty rate, lower bound of 90-percent confidence interval BALTIMORE REGION Anne Arundel Baltimore County Carroll Harford Howard Baltimore City WASHINGTON REGION Frederick Montgomery Prince George's SOUTHERN MD Calvert Charles St. Mary WESTERN MD Allegany Garrett Washington UPPER EASTERN SHORE Caroline Cecil Kent Queen Anne's Talbot LOWER EASTERN SHORE Dorchester Somerset Wicomico Worcester Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 Census (STF3, P117) and Census 2000 (SF3, P87)

23 The probability of children being poor and the probability of receiving public assistance were higher for Baltimore City than for any county (Charts 5, 6, Table 5). For example, in 1999, about 31 percent of Baltimore City s children were poor and 23 percent received TCA. While children in Western Maryland and on the Eastern Shore experienced relatively high poverty rates in 1999, the likelihood of children receiving public assistance there was generally about average for the state or somewhat less. By contrast, in 1989, the likelihood of children in those counties receiving public assistance was near or above the state average. 23

24 Chart 5. Baltimore City children were the most likely to be poor and to receive public assistance Poverty and Public Assistance Rates of Children in Maryland: Maryland BALTIMORE REGION Anne Arundel Baltimore County Carroll Harford Howard Baltimore City WASHINGTON REGION Frederick Montgomery Prince George's SOUTHERN MD Calvert Charles St. Mary WESTERN MD Allegany Garrett Washington UPPER EASTERN SHORE Caroline Cecil Kent Queen Anne's Talbot LOWER EASTERN SHORE Dorchester Somerset Wicomico Worcester Rate Poverty rate Public assistance rate Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 (SF3, P87) and MD Department of Human Resources tabulations prepared

25 Rate Chart 6. Poverty and public assistance rates were higher than average in Baltimore City, Western Maryland, and the Eastern Shore. Poverty and Public Assistance Rates of Children in Maryland: Maryland BALTIMORE REGION Anne Arundel Baltimore County Carroll Harford Howard Baltimore City WASHINGTON REGION Frederick Montgomery Prince George's SOUTHERN MD Calvert Charles St. Mary WESTERN MD Allegany Garrett Washington UPPER EASTERN SHORE Caroline Cecil Kent Queen Anne's Talbot LOWER EASTERN SHORE Dorchester Somerset Wicomico Worcester 1989 Poverty rate 1989 Public assistance rate Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 Census (STF3, P117) and MD Department of Human Resources, tabultions prepared by Jacob France Institute, U of Baltimore

26 26 Table 5. Poverty and Public Assistance Rates of Children in 1989 and 1999: Maryland State, Region, County Census 2000 poverty rate for all children under Census poverty rate for children under Public assistance rate, 1 children 1989 Public assistance rate, 1 children 1999 ratio of public assistance rate 1 to poverty rate, children 1989 ratio of public assistance rate 1 to poverty rate, children Maryland BALTIMORE REGION Anne Arundel Baltimore County Carroll Harford Howard Baltimore City WASHINGTON REGION Frederick Montgomery Prince George's SOUTHERN MD Calvert Charles St. Mary WESTERN MD Allegany Garrett Washington UPPER EASTERN SHORE Caroline Cecil Kent Queen Anne's Talbot LOWER EASTERN SHORE Dorchester Somerset Wicomico Worcester Rate = Monthly average count of children receiving public assistance in the calendar year divided by the census count of children Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 (P87), 1990 Census (P117); and MD Department of Human Resources, tabulations prepared by the Jacob France Institute, University of Baltimore

27 By 1999, public assistance caseloads had dropped dramatically compared with the 1989 levels. In Chart 7, we look at the ratio of public assistance to poverty rates for children, in which a score of 100 indicates the rates are equal. There was an extreme change in the patterns between 1989 and Kent and Garrett counties, with ratios of about 46, had the lowest ratios in Ten years later, every jurisdiction other than Baltimore City was well below the lowest 1989 ratio. In 1999, most counties had ratios below 20, with Kent County the lowest (7). No county came close to Baltimore City s ratio of 73. Prince George s and Baltimore counties were next highest with ratios of

28 Ratio Chart 7. Children in Baltimore City and Baltimore and Prince George's counties were relatively more likely than other areas to receive public assistance in 1999 Ratio of Public Assistance Rates to Poverty Rates for Children in Maryland: 1989 and Maryland BALTIMORE REGION Anne Arundel Baltimore County Carroll Harford Howard Baltimore City WASHINGTON REGION Frederick Montgomery Prince George's SOUTHERN MD Calvert Charles St. Mary WESTERN MD Allegany Garrett Washington UPPER EASTERN SHORE Caroline Cecil Kent Queen Anne's Talbot LOWER EASTERN SHORE Dorchester Somerset Wicomico Worcester 1989 ratio 1999 ratio Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 Census (STF3, P117), Census 2000 (SF3, P87) and MD Department of Human Resources tabulations prepared by the Jacob France Institute, U of Baltimore

29 29 Number of poor children The number of poor children in 1999 did not change appreciably from the 1989 numbers in most Maryland counties (Chart 8). The notable exceptions were the Baltimore and Washington regions, particularly in Baltimore City where the number of poor children decreased, and in Prince George s County where the number increased. The number of poor children increased somewhat in most of the other counties of the Baltimore and Washington Regions. The changes were not statistically significant in most of the remaining counties.

30 60,000 Numbe 40,000 20, Chart 8. Prince George's County had more poor children in 1999 than in 1989 while Baltimore City had fewer Estimated Number of Poor Children in Maryland: 1989 and Census estimate of poor children Census 2000 estimate of poor children * Difference in 1989 and 1999 estimates of poor children are not statistically significant * * * * * * * * * * * BALTIMORE REGION Anne Arundel Baltimore County Carroll Harford Howard Worcester Baltimore City WASHINGTON REGION Frederick Montgomery Prince George's SOUTHERN MD Calvert Charles St. Mary WESTERN MD Allegany Garrett Washington UPPER EASTERN SHORE Caroline Cecil Kent Queen Anne's Talbot LOWER EASTERN SHORE Dorchester Somerset Wicomico * * Significant increase in number of poor children Significant decrease in number of poor Source: U.S. Census Bureau, SF3, Census 2000 (P87) and 1990 Census (P117)

31 31 Share of Maryland s poor children in each county Even though the number of poor children decreased in Baltimore City, it continued to have the largest share of the state s poor children. One-third of Maryland s poor children in 1999, about 49,000, lived in the City of Baltimore (Chart 9). Notably, this was a decrease of about 8,400 poor children compared with Another one-third of Maryland s poor children lived in Baltimore County, Montgomery County, and Prince George s County. The only county that had a significantly higher percentage of the State s poor children in 1999 than in 1989 was Prince George s (Table A). Baltimore City had the only decline. Table A. County s Estimated Share of Maryland s Poor Children: 1989 and 1999 (Based on the Decennial Census Samples) Blue Decrease in estimated percentage of Maryland s poor children, Red -- Increase in estimated percentage of Maryland s poor children, Counties not shown did not have a statistically significant change in the percentage of Maryland s poor children over the decade 90-percent confidence interval of the estimate Jurisdiction Baltimore City % % Prince George s % % County Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 Census (P117) and Census 2000 (P87)

32 Chart 9. Baltimore City had the largest share of Maryland's poor children County's Share of Maryland's Poor Children: 1989 and BALTIMORE REGION Anne Arundel Baltimore County Carroll Harford Howard Baltimore City WASHINGTON REGION Frederick Montgomery Prince George's SOUTHERN MD Calvert Charles St. Mary WESTERN MD Allegany Garrett Washington UPPER EASTERN SHORE Caroline Cecil Kent Queen Anne's Talbot LOWER EASTERN SHORE Dorchester Somerset Wicomico Worcester Percent share * * Percentage of Maryalnd's poor children in 1989 Percentage of Maryland's poor children in 1999 *Difference in percentage of poor children between 1989 and 1999 is not statistically significant * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Source: U.S. Census Bureau, SF3, 1990 Census (P119) and Census 2000 (P87)

33 33 Changes in public assistance, With welfare reform, there came dramatic changes in the number of recipients of public assistance in every jurisdiction in Maryland. The 26-percent change in Prince George s county was less than in other counties (Chart 10). Kent and Allegany counties decreased public assistance cases for children by about 80 percent. But, as shown in Chart 11, the number of child recipients is relatively small for most counties and for these, it would be misleading to make too much of apparently dramatic percentage changes. Of Maryland s nearly 62,000 children receiving public assistance from the Temporary Cash Assistance Program (TCA) in 1999 (Table 6), Baltimore City had nearly 37,00 such children. The next highest number of cases was in Prince George s County with about 8,000 children. These were also the two jurisdictions with the highest number of children receiving public assistance in 1989 (Table 7). Baltimore City had nearly 6 in 10 of Maryland s child recipients of public assistance in both 1989 and 1999 (Chart 12). Prince George s and Baltimore counties together accounted for another 2 in 10 child recipient cases in 1999 and nearly that same share in 1989.

34 34 Chart 10. Every jurisdiction has reduced public assistance caseloads for children since 1989 Percent Change in Children Receiving Public Assistance in Maryland: Percent change Maryland Allegany Anne Arundel Baltimore County Calvert Caroline Carroll Cecil Charles Dorchester Frederick Garrett Harford Howard Kent Montgomery Prince George's Queen Anne's St. Mary's Somerset Talbot Washington Wicomico Worcester Baltimore City Source: Maryland Department of Humn Resources, tabulations prepared by the Jacob France Institute, University of Baltimore NOTE: Also see Chart 11. The number of cases is relatively small for most counties. For these, it would be misleading to make too much of apparently dramatic percentage changes.

35 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Chart 11. Baltimore City has more child recipients of public assistance than other jurisdictions Number of Child Recipients of AFDC in CY1989 and of TCA in CY1999: Maryland 35 Allegany Anne Arundel Baltimore County Calvert Caroline Carroll Cecil Charles Dorchester Frederick Garrett Harford Howard Kent Montgomery Prince George's Queen Anne's St. Mary's Somerset Talbot Washington Wicomico Worcester Baltimore City Number Number of child AFDC recipients in CY1989 Number of child TCA recipients in CY1999 Source: MD Department of Human Resources, FIA, tabultions prepared by Jacob France Institute, U of Baltimore

36 36 Table 6. Census 2000 Estimates of Total Children, Poor Children in CY1999, and TCA Child Recipients in CY1999: Maryland State, County Census 2000 estimate of children under 18 years old Total estimate, children under 18 1 Estimate of poor children, CY Lower bound of 90-percent confidence interval Upper bound of 90-percent confidence interval Counts of Children Under 18 Receiving TCA, Monthly average, CY Maryland 1,353, , , ,927 61,796 Allegany 15,348 2,674 2,431 2, Anne Arundel 123,209 8,147 7,653 8,641 2,028 Baltimore County 178,290 13,434 12,800 14,068 5,315 Calvert 22,057 1, , Caroline 7,992 1,210 1,047 1, Carroll 41,784 1,792 1,560 2, Cecil 23,792 2,217 1,995 2, Charles 34,661 2,398 2,131 2, Dorchester 7,151 1,348 1,176 1, Frederick 53,764 2,735 2,448 3, Garrett 7,497 1,254 1,088 1, Harford 60,766 3,722 3,388 4, Howard 69,299 2,831 2,539 3, Kent 4, Montgomery 220,580 13,516 12,880 14,152 2,016 Prince George's 214,522 20,108 19,335 20,881 8,010 Queen Anne's 10, St. Mary's 24,064 2,098 1,848 2, Somerset 4,572 1,300 1,106 1, Talbot 7, Washington 30,918 3,902 3,608 4, Wicomico 20,932 3,302 3,033 3,571 1,027 Worcester 9,552 1,638 1,448 1, Baltimore City 161,100 48,806 47,634 49,978 36,725 Footnotes for Table 6 1 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000, Summary File 3 (sample data),table P8. We used sample estimates of the number of children to be consistent with the poverty sample estimates. Complete counts are shown in SF1, Table P12. For Maryland, the complete count of children under 18 years old was 1,356,172. Age refers to age on April 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000, Summary File 3 (sample data),table P87 (see: Poverty status refers to total family income in 1999 and family status on April 1, Source: The Maryland Department of Human Resources, Family Investment Administration, Monthly Statistical Reports, June 1999 and June 2000.

37 37 Table Census Estimates of Total Children, Poor Children in CY1989, and AFDC Child Recipients in CY1989: Maryland 1990 Census estimate of children under 18 years old Counts of Total Estimate of Lower bound of Upper bound of Children Under 18 Receiving State, estimate, poor 90-percent 90-percent AFDC, Monthly children children, confidence confidence average, CY County under 18 1 CY interval interval Maryland 1,162, , , , ,304 Allegany 16,489 3,913 3,622 4,204 2,412 Anne Arundel 105,306 6,123 5,666 6,580 4,881 Baltimore County 151,489 10,917 10,307 11,527 7,921 Calvert 14, , Caroline 7, , Carroll 32,862 1,381 1,204 1, Cecil 19,162 1,782 1,583 1,981 1,201 Charles 29,712 1,664 1,471 1,857 1,824 Dorchester 6,891 1,341 1,170 1,512 1,062 Frederick 39,527 2,274 2,048 2,500 1,203 Garrett 7,690 1,423 1,247 1, Harford 48,782 3,239 2,907 3,571 1,725 Howard 48,504 1,797 1,549 2, Kent 3, Montgomery 177,120 9,058 8,501 9,615 5,530 Prince George's 178,430 12,216 11,571 12,861 10,818 Queen Anne's 8, St. Mary's 21,481 2,224 1,951 2,497 1,198 Somerset 4, , Talbot 6, Washington 27,642 3,383 3,109 3,657 2,398 Wicomico 18,293 2,816 2,567 3,065 1,931 Worcester 7,733 1, , Baltimore City 180,043 57,203 55,851 58,555 68,039 Footnotes for Table 7 11Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 Census, Summary Tape File 3 (sample data). We used sample estimates of the number of children to be consistent with the poverty sample estimates. Complete counts are shown in STF1. For Maryland, the complete count of children under 18 years old was 1,162,241. Age refers to age on April 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 Census, Summary Tape File 3 (sample data),table P117 (see: Poverty status refers to total family income in 1989 and family status on April 1, Source: The Maryland Department of Human Resources, Family Investment Administration, Monthly Statistical Reports, June 1989 and June 1990.

38 38 Chart 12. Baltimore City had the largest share of Maryland's child recipients of public assistance County's Share of Maryland's Child Recipients of AFDC in CY1989 and of TCA in CY1999 Percent 60 Percentage of Maryland's child AFDC recipients in CY1989 Percentage of Maryland's child TCA recipients in CY Allegany Anne Arundel Baltimore County Calvert Caroline Carroll Cecil Charles Dorchester Frederick Garrett Harford Howard Kent Source: MD Dept. of Human Resources, FIA, tabultions prepared by Jacob France Institute, University of Baltimore Montgomery Prince George's Queen Anne's St. Mary's Somerset Talbot Washington Wicomico Worcester Baltimore City

39 39 Number and share of poor children and public assistance child recipients Of Maryland s nearly 1.4 million children, an estimated 142,000 children were poor in This was a net increase of roughly 13,000 poor children from the 1989 estimate (Table 8). Maryland added 194,000 children to its population in that period. From 1989 to 1999, changes in public assistance programs greatly reduced the number of children receiving assistance. An average of about 61,800 children a month received Temporary Cash Assistance (TCA) in 1999 compared with about 118,300 in 1989 (Tables 6 and 7). 11 Decennial questions about income refer to the previous calendar year (1999 for Census 2000, 1989 for the 1990 Census).

40 40 Table 8. Estimated Number of Poor Children in 1989 and 1999: Maryland Black - Apparent change over the decade was not statistically significant Blue Decrease in the estimated number of poor children, Red Increase in the estimated number of poor children, Census 2000 estimate of poor children under 18 years old Lower Upper bound of bound of 90-percent 90-percent confidence confidence interval interval Estimate Estimate of poor of poor State, County children children Maryland 141, , , , , , LOWER EASTERN SHORE Dorchester 1,348 1,176 1,520 1,341 1,170 1, Somerset 1,300 1,106 1, , Wicomico 3,302 3,033 3,571 2,816 2,567 3, Worcester 1,638 1,448 1,828 1, , Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 Census (P117) and Census 2000 (P87) 1990 Census estimate of poor children under 18 years old Lower Upper bound of bound of 90-percent 90-percent confidence confidence interval interval Percent change in poor children BALTIMORE REGION Anne Arundel 8,147 7,653 8,641 6,123 5,666 6, Baltimore County 13,434 12,800 14,068 10,917 10,307 11, Carroll 1,792 1,560 2,024 1,381 1,204 1, Harford 3,722 3,388 4,056 3,239 2,907 3, Howard 2,831 2,539 3,123 1,797 1,549 2, Baltimore City 48,806 47,634 49,978 57,203 55,851 58, WASHINGTON REGION Frederick 2,735 2,448 3,022 2,274 2,048 2, Montgomery 13,516 12,880 14,152 9,058 8,501 9, Prince George's 20,108 19,335 20,881 12,216 11,571 12, SOUTHERN MD Calvert 1, , , Charles 2,398 2,131 2,665 1,664 1,471 1, St. Mary s 2,098 1,848 2,348 2,224 1,951 2, WESTERN MD Allegany 2,674 2,431 2,917 3,913 3,622 4, Garrett 1,254 1,088 1,420 1,423 1,247 1, Washington 3,902 3,608 4,196 3,383 3,109 3, UPPER EASTERN SHORE Caroline 1,210 1,047 1, , Cecil 2,217 1,995 2,439 1,782 1,583 1, Kent Queen Anne's Talbot

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