Global Economic Governance and Foreign Exchange Policy of Japan. Kiyoto IDO Vice Chairman Institute for International Economic Studies

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1 Global Economic Governance and Foreign Exchange Policy of Japan Kiyoto IDO Vice Chairman Institute for International Economic Studies

2 Member Countries and Governments of Asian Forums APEC EAS ASEAN Brunei, Indonesia ( ) Malaysia, the Philippines Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia India( ) Japan( ), China( ), Korea( ) Australia ( ), New Zealand ASEAN+3 US( ) Russia( ) Canada( ) Papua New Guinea Hong Kong, Chinese Taipei Mexico( ), Chile, Peru ( ): G20 members Reference: Other G20 members are Argentina, Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, UK, EU 1

3 History of Chinese and Japanese Currency Exchange Systems China Used an official exchange rate for government-led planned trade 1980 Accession to the IMF, introduction of foreign currency convertible notes 1981 Introduction of a dual exchange rate system with an official rate and a market rate 1994 Abolition of the dual exchange rate system and foreign currency convertible notes Unification of exchange rates / transition to a managed floating exchange rate regime (dollar-peg system, in effect) Establishment of the Shanghai Foreign Exchange Trading Center Introduction of a foreign exchange concentration system 1996 年 Transition IMF8 条国へ移行 to an Article ( 経常取引の自由化 8 country of the ) IMF (liberalization of current transactions) 2001 Accession to the WTO 2005 (Jul 21) Transition to a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies Revaluation of the yuan by 2% from 1USD=8.28CNY to 1USD=8.11CNY * Fixed exchange rate introduced, in effect, from July Floating rate reintroduced after announcement of easing controls on the yuan 2009 年人民元による貿易決済の解禁 Lifting of bans on trade settlements in yuan 2011 (Aug.) Official lifting of ban on direct foreign investment in yuan 2011 (Oct.) Official lifting of ban on direct domestic investment in yuan 2015 (Aug.) Introduction of a renewed calculation method of the yuan s central parity rate against the dollar to devaluate the yuan 1949 Decision on a fixed exchange rate of 1USD=360JPY 1950 Introduction of a foreign exchange concentration system 1952 Accession to the IMF 1955 Accession to GATT 1960 円為替 自由円勘定の導入 Introduction of yen exchanges and free yen accounts 1964 年 Transition IMF8 条国に移行 to an Article, 8 accession country to of the OECD IMF Abolition of the foreign exchange budget 1971 (Aug.) Nixon Shock (Dec.) Revaluation of the yen to 1USD=308JPY 1972 Abolition of the foreign exchange concentration system 1973 (Feb.) Transition to a floating exchange rate 1980 Revision of the Foreign Exchange Control Law (from a principally license-oriented regime to liberalization) 1984 Japan-U.S. Yen-Dollar Committee 1985 Plaza Accord Japan Abolition of the real demand rule for futures transactions 1998 Revision of the Foreign Exchange Control Law (abolition of the authorized foreign exchange bank system, full deregulation of foreign exchange transactions) 2

4 USD/JPY Exchange Rate (1971 to present) (yen) 400 Nixon Shock Carter's Dollar Defence Plaza Accord Louvre Accord Rubin's "strong-dollar policy" Great East Japan Earthquake Lehman collapse Abenomics 100 Japan's current account surplus expands 50 1USD=79 yen 1USD=75 yen (Source) Federal Reserve, Institution for International Economic Studies (Note) As of September 2,

5 PPP and the Dollar-Yen Exchange Rate (yen) USD/JPY exchange rate (monthly average) Purchasing Power Parity (CPI) Purchasing Power Parity (PPI) (Source) Consumer Price Index (CPI): Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan; US Department of Labor; Producer Price Index (PPI): Bank of Japan, US Department of Labor; USD/JPY exchange rate: Bank of Japan (Note 1) Based on monthly average exchange rate for March 1973 (265.3 yen per US dollar) (Note 2) As of July

6 Trends in the Yen Real effective Exchange Rate (monthly) average=100 The nominal effective exchange rate is obtained by first calculating the weighted average (geometric mean) of the yen's exchange rates against other major currencies, using the annual value of Japan's trade with the respective countries and regions as weights. A base period is determined to convert the weighted average into an index. The nominal effective exchange rate is adjusted to incorporate inflation rate differences to calculate the real effective exchange rate. Aug (154.11JPY) Nov (123.16JPY) Apr (83.53JPY) Dec (102.61JPY) Jan (90.35JPY) Jul (78.96JPY) Appreciation Depreciation Sep (1USD=236.91JPY) Apr (158.50JPY) Aug (144.76JPY) Feb (133.53JPY) Jul (121.56JPY) Jul (103.97JPY) (Source) Bank of Japan 5

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