THE AFRICA 4G SPECTRUM VALUE REPORT: 4G VALUATION, OUTLOOK, AND BUSINESS MODELS IN AFRICAN MARKETS

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1 THE AFRICA 4G SPECTRUM VALUE REPORT: 4G VALUATION, OUTLOOK, AND BUSINESS MODELS IN AFRICAN MARKETS Xalam Analytics Spotlight Report Series May 2016 REPORT SUMMARY & TABLE OF CONTENTS CAMBRIDGE LONDON - DAKAR 1

2 Fresh. Deeper. Africa Digital Markets Analytics. It s Xalam. Xalam Analytics, LLC Part of the Light Reading Research Network 1 Mifflin Place, Harvard Sq., Suite 400, Cambridge, MA Tel: info@xalamanalytics.com Copyright 2015 by Xalam Analytics, LLC. All rights reserved. Please see important disclosures at the beginning of this document. We welcome all feedback on our research. Please feedback to: info@xalamanalytics.com 2

3 REPORT SUMMARY How much is African wireless spectrum worth? African governments have sold around $15bn worth of wireless spectrum since 1998, in three waves of awards covering 2G, 3G and now, 4G frequencies. By our estimates, Africa is sitting on around $5bn worth of 4G spectrum, and over the next 18 months, markets from Egypt to South Africa, Nigeria, Senegal and others will sell or seek to value a trove of frequencies that will pave the way for next generation digital services. And yet, even as they seek to precisely assess the value of the 4G spectrum on offer, buyers and sellers alike have surprisingly few independent tools for intra- African spectrum transaction benchmarking and value analysis. This report provides such a tool. For the Xalam Africa 4G Spectrum Value Report, we have developed what is arguably the most extensive independent, African-focused analysis of 3G and 4G spectrum value available. We have analyzed 60 spectrum transactions across 20 African markets over the past 10 years ( ), included in around 35 separate processes covering 1100MHz worth of 3G and/or 4G spectrum. The Xalam Africa 4G Spectrum Value Report assesses the value of various 4G bands in African markets and offers a qualitative and quantitative framework for estimating 4G spectrum value in the African context. In addition, the report provides projected value ranges for upcoming and/or anticipated 4G spectrum auctions, including for markets such as Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt and Senegal. Further, the report explores a range of issues related to 3G and 4G spectrum, from the business feasibility of 4G at current spectrum value points to the future of so-called spectrum asset companies. Main Phases of African Spectrum Licensing 2G Spectrum Licensing Phase ~$10bn in Proceeds* 3G Spectrum Licensing Phase ~$4bn in Proceeds 4G Spectrum Phase ? 3

4 KEY QUESTIONS EXPLORED IN THE REPORT (SAMPLE) The insights derived from that effort are distilled in this report, covering critical spectrum value questions and key points, including: What is the state of 4G LTE rollout on the African continent? Which spectrum bands dominate? Which bands are proving the most valuable in the African context? What is the TDD/FDD split? Which African markets have generated in the most in spectrum proceeds? What are the key drivers of 4G spectrum value in Africa? How does African 4G spectrum value compare to 3G? 2G? Why is African 4G spectrum valued higher than 3G spectrum? Should the 2.6GHz band be valued as 4G, or as FWA? How does African 4G spectrum value compares to 4G transactions in Western Europe? What is the estimated value of South Africa s 4G spectrum (2.6GHz, 700MHz, 800MHz)? What is the estimated value of Nigeria s 4G spectrum (2.6GHz, 700MHz, 800MHz)? Did Nigeria get fair value for the 700 MHz sold to MTN Nigeria? What is the fair value for upcoming 4G transactions in Senegal, Egypt? Did investments in 3G spectrum pay off? Are investments in 4G spectrum, at current price points worth it, given the business challenge of monetizing data? Who are Africa s spectrum 4G plays (companies whose primary value lies with their spectrum assets), and are they likely to sell? And more.. The Corporate/Premium version of this report includes a Pivot table covering 2G, 3G and 4G transactions, along with detailed value for each on a Price/MHz/Pop/Year benchmark basis, along with more than 50 supporting charts and data points in Excel format (See Report Specs). 4

5 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. 4G IN AFRICA: AN OVERVIEW 4G in Africa - Overview Africa 4G Overview 2016, the Year African 4G Took Off Tracking the Pace of African 4G Roll-Out Africa 4G vs. the World: Not Quite Dovetailing Global Trends (Yet) 4G Licensing Status in a Number of Key African Markets 2. AFRICA SPECTRUM OVERVIEW: WITH 4G, THE THIRD WAVE OF SPECTRUM IS HERE Africa spectrum Licensing: $16bn in Proceeds So Far, and More Is Coming Africa spectrum Licensing: Africa Sitting on ~$5bn in 4G Spectrum Value Analysis of African 4G Spectrum Proceeds by Band Markets that Have Generated the Most Proceeds from Selling Licenses 3. PARAMETERS OF VALUATION, OUR BENCHMARK SAMPLE AND DRIVERS OF VALUE Africa 4G Spectrum Valuation General Parameters Our Benchmark Valuation Sample: 60 Spectrum Transactions, More than 100 Value Points Our Valuation Sample: In Africa, Auctions are a Fluid Concept Mapping Our 3G/4G Transaction Sample Africa 4G Drivers of Value Africa 4G A Review of Spectrum Bands Mapping of Spectrum Bands in the African Context 4. A VISUAL MAPPING OF AFRICA S 3G AND 4G VALUATION Mapping Africa Spectrum Value Transaction Value vs. PPP Mapping Africa Spectrum Value Transaction Value vs. PPP by Band Mapping Africa Spectrum Value Transaction Value by Band 2G vs. 3G vs. 4G Blocks of Spectrum Matter to Value And 4G will be Pricier than 3G Was 5. VALUE ANALYSIS: THE 2100 MHZ (3G) BAND 2100 MHz The Second Most Prolific Phase of Spectrum Sales For Now Breaking Down 3G Spectrum Value: The 2100 MHz Band Breaking Down 3G Spectrum Value: The 2100 MHz Band 6. VALUE ANALYSIS: 800 MHZ BAND THE RESURRECTION OF A BAND Africa 4G: 800 MHz [Band 20] The Resurrection of a Band Nigeria 800 MHz Band The Evolution of a Band Breaking Down 4G Spectrum Value: The 800 MHz Band Mapping Out Africa s 800 MHz Band The 800 MHz Band More Expensive in Sub-Saharan Africa The 800 MHz Band s Value Inflation Africa s 4G 800 MHz Values A ~4x Discount from European Levels 7. VALUE ANALYSIS: THE 2.6 GHZ BAND BETWEEN 4G AND FWA VALUATION The Rise of the 2.6GHz Band 2016 Is the Year The Other Upper 2GHz Bands From African WiMAX to African LTE-TDD The 2.6 GHz Band The Largest Amount of Capacity Sold but the Lowest Proceeds Generated Breaking Down the 2600 MHz Band Value The 2.6 GHz Band Should it be Valued as 4G, or as FWA/WiMAX Spectrum? Africa s 2.6 GHz Band In Some Cases Pricier than in Europe.. 8. MAKING THE CASE: WAS AFRICAN 3G WORTH THE MONEY? Assessing 3G Returns in African Markets The Nigeria 3G Case Leader Returns vs. Challenger Returns The Egypt 3G Case Terrible Returns, but that Hardly Matters The Cote-d Ivoire 3G Case Some 3G Investments Do Generate Positive Returns A Summary View of 3G: The 4G Timing Problem, and Looking Beyond Economics 5

6 TABLE OF CONTENTS (2) 9. MAKING THE CASE: IS AFRICAN 4G WORTH THE MONEY? Is African 4G Spectrum Worth the Money? The Case for 4G More than the Net Present Value of Cash Flows Assessing 4G Value: Is It Worth It vs. Can You Handle It The Case for 4G Spectrum 10. A BENCHMARK VALUATION OF UPCOMING 4G SPECTRUM SALES BREAKING DOWN OUR BENCHMARK VALUATION APPROACH How We Estimated Spectrum Value On a Benchmark Basis VALUING NIGERIA S 2.6GHZ SPECTRUM Nigeria 4G Comparables Ghana and Morocco Come Closest Nigeria 2.6 GHz Auction Value Assessment How Much for Nigeria s 2.6 GHz? Nigeria 2.6 GHz A Challenging Market Context Will Make it Tough to Justify the Valuation The Problem with Stand-Alone 2.6 GHz Spectrum and the Lack of First Mover Advantage Nigeria 2.6 GHz Making the (Difficult) Case for GSM, FWA Operators NIGERIA: SCANNING THE 700 MHZ SALE TO MTN NIGERIA HOW MUCH IS IT REALLY WORTH? MTN Nigeria s 700 MHz Spectrum Genesis of a Conflict MTN Nigeria s 700 MHz Spectrum Was the Value High..or Too Low? Nigeria What s the True Value of MTN Nigeria s 700 MHz Spectrum HOW MUCH FOR SOUTH AFRICA S 4G SPECTRUM? South Africa s 4G Auction Any Time Now.. South Africa 4G Auction Looking for Comparables South Africa 4G Auction Assessing the Value of the Proposed 800 MHz Lot South Africa 4G Auction Assessing the Value of the Proposed 2600 MHz Lot South Africa 4G Auction Assessing the Full Value of the Non-Wholesale Lots South Africa 4G Auction The 700MHz Should be the Priciest Except Not SENEGAL A SQUABBLE OVER 4G SPECTRUM VALUE Senegal 4G Spectrum A Conflict Over 4G Value Senegal 4G Value Finding the Right Comparables What is the Fair Value for Senegal s 4G Licence? EGYPT 4G LICENCE ONCE AGAIN LOOKING TO BE AFRICA S HIGHEST VALUATION Egypt 4G Context Waiting for Godot Valuing Egypt s 4G Licence How Much is Too Much? 11. Africa s 4G Spectrum Plays: Visafone, Smile Communications, Intercellular and Others Acquiring a Spectrum Play vs. Acquiring a Spectrum Licence 4G Spectrum Plays - Breaking Down Visafone s Value 4G Spectrum Plays Smile Communications Nigeria 4G Spectrum Plays In Nigeria, a Narrow Window to Sell Intercellular Nigeria First Protect the Asset, then Sell the Asset 12. APPENDIX Africa 4G Spectrum Licensing Table LTE FDD Band Table LTE TDD Band Table 6

7 TABLE OF EXHIBITS & CHARTS Africa 4G Commercial Networks Mapping 2016 Africa Mobile Internet Subscriber Base From 2G to 4G Africa 4G Commercial Network Roll-Out Africa 4G Networks by Spectrum Band Distribution of Prime 4G LTE Bands Africa vs. Global Africa 4G Networks - TDD vs. FDD Table Summary Review of 4G Licensing Status in Key African Markets Main Phases of African Spectrum Licensing The 3G and 4G Phases of African Spectrum Licensing Distribution of Africa 4G Transaction Proceeds by Spectrum Band Distribution of Africa 4G Bandwidth Sold by Spectrum Band Average Revenue per MHz Generated in African 4G Transactions by Spectrum Band Africa Top Markets for Radio Spectrum License Proceeds 2G, 3G and 4G Our 3G/4G Transaction Sample by Frequency Band* Distribution of 3G/4G Transactions by Type in African Markets Mapping Our 3G/4G Transaction Sample Spectrum value is affected by a variety of factors Summary Review of the Key 4G Bands in the African Context Availability, Value Potential Table Summary Review of the Key Bands in the African Context Ecosystem, Coverage Capabilities and General Availability Median Value for Sample Frequency Bands in African Markets Median Value by Technology Generation and Spectrum Blocks in African Markets Proceeds from 3G Spectrum Sales in Key African Markets Africa 2100 MHz Spectrum Sales Summary Review Africa 2100 MHz Spectrum Value Ranges Per GDP/Capita/PPP Grouping Africa 3G: Transaction Values vs. GDP per PPP Mapping of Africa 4G LTE Networks in the 800 MHz Band Mapping of Africa 4G LTE Networks in the 800 MHz Band 800 MHz Spectrum Value in Nigeria 2007 to 2016 Africa 800 MHz Spectrum Sales Summary Review Africa 800 MHz Spectrum Value Ranges Per GDP/Capita/PPP Grouping 800MHz Band: Transaction Values vs. GDP per PPP Africa 800 MHz Spectrum Sales Summary Review How African 4G 800 MHz Spectrum Band Values Compare to Europe s Mapping of Africa 4G LTE Networks in the 2.6GHz Band Mapping of Africa 4G LTE Networks in the 2.3GHz/2.5GHz and 3.5 GHz Bands Africa 2600 MHz Spectrum Sales Summary Review Median Value for Sample Frequency Bands in African Markets Africa 2600 MHz/2300 MHz Spectrum Value Ranges 2600MHz Band: Transaction Values vs. GDP per PPP Valuation of 2.6GHz, 2.3 GHz in Sample African Markets - Value per PoP per MHz per Year Nigeria 3G Market Leader Evolution of Cumulative FCF Nigeria 3G Market Challenger Evolution of Cumulative FCF Egypt 3G Returns Assessment Market Leader Evolution of Cumulative FCF Cote-d Ivoire 3G Returns Assessment Market Leader Evolution of Cumulative FCF Number of Years of 3G Service When 4G Launched Sample Markets % Remaining Useful Life of the 3G Spectrum Asset at the Time 4G Launched Sample Markets The African 4G Predicament Licence Value as a Proportion of Operator Revenue Sample African Transactions Depreciated Licence Value Impact on EBITDA Annual Licence Cost Depreciation as % of Sales African Country Mapping by GDP per PPP African Country Mapping Mobile Services Market Size vs. Mobile Internet Contribution to Revenue Nigeria Mobile Market Size and Data Impact in the African Context Nigeria Africa Comparables on PPP Basis Nigeria 2.6GHz Licensing Framework Nigeria 2.6GHz: Nigeria Reserve Price Valuation vs. Sample Africa Transactions Nigeria 2.6 GHz Valuation Assumptions Nigeria 2.6GHz Band: Valuation Summary (for 4 lots of 10 MHz) Amount of MHz Sold in the 2.6GHz Band The Others Paid Less - Nigeria 2.6 GHz vs. Sample Nigeria Transactions 7

8 TABLE OF EXHIBITS & CHARTS (2) Valuation of MTN s 700 MHz vs, Other Markets What MTN Paid, vs. What MTN Would Have Paid if Valued as per Benchmark Africa Transactions Assuming 10 MHz What MTN Paid, vs. What MTN Would Have Paid if Valued as per Benchmark Africa Transactions Assuming 20 MHz South Africa Licensing Framework (Proposed) South Africa Mobile Market Size and Data Impact in the African Context South Africa Comparables on PPP Basis 800 MHz South Africa Value vs. African and European Transactions 2600 MHz South Africa Value vs. African and European Transactions Low/Median/High Valuation for South Africa s 4G Spectrum* - Per Year South Africa Estimated Value vs. Sample Comparable Transactions South Africa s 4G Spectrum Valuation by Available Bands Value Range of South Africa 700 MHz Wholesale vs. Non-Wholesale Blocks * Senegal 4G Licensing Framework January 2016 Senegal 4G Reserve Price vs. 3G and 2G Value Senegal Mobile Market Size and Data Impact in the African Context Senegal Comparables on PPP Basis Senegal 4G Licence: Key Valuation Assumptions How Our Estimate of Senegal s 4G Value Compares to the ARTP s Senegal Overall Licence Block Value vs. Other Markets Egypt Mobile Market Size and Data Impact in the African Context Nigeria Africa Comparables on PPP Basis Valuation of Egypt s 3G Spectrum vs. North African Comps Potential Price Points for Egypt s 4G Licence Sample Africa LTE Spectrum Plays Visafone Nigeria Subscriber Base Breaking Down Visafone Nigeria s Valuation 8

9 REPORT SPECS: 2 BUDGET OPTIONS Standard 1-5 Users US$ 1,500 Report Delivered in PDF Format Including: 120 pages Including 85 Charts & Valuation Visuals Summary 4G Transaction Table (PDF, including buyer, value, MHz sold, MHz/Pop/Year) Premium Corporate Licence US$ 2,000 Package delivered in Winzip, Box, or Dropbox, including: Report in PDF pages & 85 Charts & Valuation Visuals 50 Charts with underlying chart data in Excel format Africa 2G/3G/4G Transaction Table, in Excel Pivot Table Format (Including value, buyer, MHz, $/MHz/Pop/Year, Internet Contribution to Revenue, GDP per Capita, etc.) 9

10 About Xalam Analytics: Global Expertise, AME Research Depth LEADING GLOBAL MEDIA & RESEARCH AME COVERAGE FOCUS The Research arm of Light Reading, the leading global, community-driven media and research business A premier research and business intelligence firm focused on digital, enterprise and carrier markets in Africa and the Middle East Provides deep insight and comprehensive strategic guidance covering a full range of emerging telecom technologies and services Variety of custom services ranging from multi-client studies for in-depth technology innovation research to White Paper development and live strategy sessions in support of go to market strategies. EXTENSIVE TECH & INNOV EXPERTISE EXTENSIVE TECH RESEARCH PORTFOLIO XALAM ANALYTICS FOCUS ON BUSINESS VALUE, ECONOMICS, ANALYTICS ENTERPRISE & CARRIER SEGMENT FOCUS Building the first cloud-based business analytics platform dedicated to digital market analytics in AME. Unmatched country level depth of insights, across a matrix spanning more than 40 countries, SMEs to MNCs, and a dozen industry verticals Strategic focus on variety of enterprise and carrier services including IP voice, fixed and mobile broadband, corporate VPNs, cloud and data center services, M2M and metro/ld backhaul.

11 Xalam Analytics, LLC Part of the Light Reading Research Network US Office: 1 Mifflin Place, Harvard Sq. Suite 400 Cambridge, MA London Dakar Tel (US Office): info@xalamanalytics.com XALAM ANALYTICS Fiber. Cloud. Mobility Insights. In AME. Xalam 11

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