Over the past decade, Brazil has emerged as one of the World s Largest Economies
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1 BRAZIL Over the past decade, Brazil has emerged as one of the World s Largest Economies Ranking by total GDP Country US$ in billions (2012) 1. United States $16, China $8, Japan $5, Germany $3, France $2, United Kingdom $2, Brazil $2, Russia $2, Italy $2, India $1, Canada $1,721.45
2 BRAZIL The past year has been a rough ride Brazil s GDP growth: 2013: 2.5% 2014 (forecast): 0.9% Brazil s economy contracted during the first two quarters of 2014.
3 BRAZIL What is holding Brazil back? Social Stratification The upper 20% of the population earns 65% of the income. 20% to 30% of the country lives below the poverty line. Huge disparity in wealth, education, and general well being between the classes. Lack of Infrastructure Brazil has not made sufficient infrastructure investments to accommodate growth. Would need to triple spending on worthwhile projects over the next 5 years to catch up. Corruption/Bureaucracy Complicated labor laws, tax system, government regulation, and lack of transparency continue to hinder foreign investment. Commodities Pricing The price of oil fell by 18% over the past two years and the Brazilian real has depreciated by 18% against the US Dollar during this same time span.
4 BRAZIL Office Market: Quick Stats Class A Vacancy 18% in São Paulo and 12% in Rio de Janeiro. Badly Oversupplied: Marginal submarket in São Paulo and Barra submarket in Rio de Janeiro. Cap rates for highest quality properties in the 8% to 9% range in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.
5 OFFICE SALE Property Details PROPERTY NAME CITY MARKET LOCATION STORIES GLA COMPLETION DATE Faria Lima 3500 São Paulo, SP Faria Lima/Jardins 5 22,700 m 2 244,340 ft Sale Details Buyer: Brookfield Buyers LP Seller: Tishman Speyer Brazil Fund I Sale Date: September 2014 Price: R$685.0 million US$291.5 million Price/m 2 : R$30,176 Price/ft 2 : US$1,192 Interest: 100% Cap Rate: 8.2% Occupancy at Sale: 100% leased to Itaú Unibanco siila.com
6 BRAZIL Retail Market: Quick Stats New deliveries: 1.2 million m 2 in 2013 and 1.4 million m 2 forecast for Cap rates for institutional quality centers in the 6% to 9% range in São Paulo and Rio. GROC Ratios for well managed centers are typically in the 12%-15% range.
7 SHOPPING CENTER SALE Property Details PROPERTY NAME CITY MARKET LOCATION STORES GLA COMPLETION DATE JK Iguatemi São Paulo São Paulo ,293 m 2 379,890 ft Sale Details Buyer: Iguatemi/TIAA-CREF Seller: WTorre Sale Date: February 2014 Price: R$1,272 million Price: US$573 million Price/m 2 : R$36,041 Price/ft 2 : US$1,508 Interest: Iguatemi 14% / TIAA-CREF 36% Cap Rate: 6.0% Anchor Tenants: Miu Miu, Chanel, Lanvin, Prada e Daslu. siila.com
8 BRAZIL Logistics Market: Quick Stats Overall industrial vacancy rate in Brazil is 18%. Rio has low vacancy due to land constraints. Approximately 1.8 million square meters of new space in the pipeline. Monthly rents for new space range from R$18.50 R$27.00 per square meter depending on location.
9 BRAZIL Housing Market: Quick Stats In São Paulo housing prices have more than tripled over the past 6 years. Minha Casa Minha Vida program difficult for developers due to fixed prices and construction/ delivery exposure. Still significant pent up demand, but prices are moderating. Smaller unit sizes becoming more prominent.
10 Riding the bull market! MEXICO
11 MEXICO Retail Market Mexico Investor Survey siila.com
12 MEXICO Recent Sale Transactions: Retail Galerias Guadalajara August ,893 square meters (GLA) One of the largest fashion malls in Mexico Total GLA: 71,893 m 2, 230 small shops, 40 food, 30 kiosks Anchor: Liverpool, Sears; Other large tenants: C&B, Sanborn s, Cinepolis Sale Price: US$255.8 million, US$3,509 per m 2 Buyer: Fibra Uno Seller: Fondo Comercial Mexicano Cap Rate: 8.20%, 90.0% Occupied Payment: US$54.7 million cash US$201.1 million in debt siila.com
13 MEXICO Industrial Market Mexico Investor Survey MARKET NOTES: Mexico City remains strong and stable. Monterrey making steady improvement. Bajio market is on fire. Juarez is coming back. siila.com
14 MEXICO Recent Sale Transactions: Office Corporative Masaryk 111 (Polanco) August ,250 square meters (GLA) Sale Price: US$109.8 million, US$4,182 per m 2 Buyer: Fibra Uno Seller: Confidential Cap Rate: 7.60%, 100.0% Occupied Financing: US$63.0 million (Banamex) Total GLA: Office: 24,400 m 2 Retail: 1,850 m 2, siila.com
15 COLOMBIA Foreign Direct Investment Record high of US$15.8 billion in 2012, new record in 2013 with $16.8 billion and new high in projected in 2014 of approximately $18.5 billion. Investment in local stocks and debt increased 20% to US$4.9 billion. Significant pent up demand for most types of commercial real estate. Housing prices are cooling after a decade of rising prices. Business friendly government. Increasing partnership opportunities for foreign investors Historical FDI US$B
16 Significant Retail Development: Opportunity for growth 52 shopping centers under development in Colombia Changing ownership structure away from fractured interests Rising land prices main challenge for developers Second tier cities becoming more attractive 350,000 m2 expected to be delivered in 2015 third largest in Latam after Brazil and Mexico Argentina Peru Chile Colombia Mexico Brazil Latin America Shopping Center GLA 2014 (square feet in millions) COLOMBIA
17 OTHER LATIN AMERICAN MARKETS Panama Canal expansion to be completed in GDP growth forecast to exceed 7.0 percent. US dollar currency gives the country a stability advantage over other markets. Chile Small market with high barriers to entry. Most real estate owned by local investors. Peru Growing middle class and increasing economic growth. Political /economic uncertainty is still too great for most foreign investors. Argentina Volatile political and economic environment. High government debt. Lack of capital for new development.
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