Global economic outlook and Latin America
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1 Global economic outlook and Latin America Luis Oscar Herrera BTG Pactual Andean Region & Argentina October, 2015 For additional information, please read carefully the notice at the end of this presentation.
2 Transitioning from the post-financial crisis world Latin America stuck in the middle of all US recovery and FED interest-rate liftoff China s slowdown, deleverage and demand rebalancing 2
3 Agenda My five key takeaways from the Lima meetings 3
4 1 Global growth rotation and the new mediocrity 4
5 Mediocre global outlook, but not the end of the world World GDP growth (% y/y, PPP adjusted) 6,0 5, ,0 4,0 3,0 4,2 3,4 3,3 3,4 3,1 3,6 3,8 World AECs ,0 US ,0 0, Other EMEs China Advanced Economies EMEs China Source: IMF WEO October
6 Global growth rotation EMs and resource exporters slowdown, modest pickup in AEs Emerging economies (GDP %y/y) Advanced economies (GDP %y/y) 16,0 6,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 4,0 2,0 8,0 0,0 6,0-2,0 4,0 2,0 0,0-2,0 0, ,0-6,0-8, Commodity exporters China EMEs ex China Japan United States Eurozone Source: IMF WEO October
7 2 Commodities glut to drag on 7
8 Commodities prices to remain low-for-long Faltering demand, new capacity and lower production costs Metals & oil real prices (index, 2000=100) Metals & oil world production (2000=100) Metals Oil World GDP Copper Oil Iron Ore (RHS) Source: IMF WEO October 2015, ICSG October 2015 EIA October
9 Commodity exporters will face an uphill climb GDP growth (% y/y) Investment (% GDP) ,7 3,8 2,9 1,7 EMEs: Commodity Other EMEs exporters ,2 22,2 EMEs: Commodity exporters 23, ,0 Other EMEs Current account balance (% GDP) Fiscal balance (% GDP) ,1-1,8-1,9-2,7 EMEs: Commodity Other EMEs exporters ,9-5,7 EMEs: Commodity exporters -4,5-4,3 Other EMEs
10 3 Risk rotation and capital retrenchment from EMEs 10
11 Tighter financial conditions in EMs will continue Fear of the FED, weaker growth and external deficits Capital inflows to EMEs (US$ billions) Asset prices in LatAm (January 2010=100) Taper Tantrum Portfolio inflows Other inflows Total inflows Taper Tantrum Credit Equities Currencies Source: IIF October 2015 & Bloomberg 11
12 Stronger national and sovereign balance sheets in EMs But higher leverage of non-financial corporations in EMs International Reserves in LatAm-6 (%) Corporate debt in EMs (US$bn) % GDP %M2 % External Debt EMs excluding China China EMs (% GDP, RHS) LatAm-6 corresponds to the simple average of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay Source: World Bank Development Indicators, IMF Global Financial Stability Report October
13 4 Latin America s golden years are over And they will not return for a long time
14 Latin America s Golden Decade: Rising GDP per head, falling poverty and lower inequality LatAm GDP per head (% advanced econ., PPP) LatAm income distribution (Gini Index) , ,3 32, Source: World Economic Outlook October 2015, World Bank Development Indicators. 14
15 GDP per capita %y/y China and the commodities super-cycle It was good while it lasted LatAm & China GDP growth (% y/y) LatAm GDP & ToT (% y/y, avg ) ,0 5,0 Peru ,0 Colombia 2 8 3,0 Chile LatAm China ,0 1,0 y = 0,22x + 2,42 R² = 0,25 0,0-5,0 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 ToT %y/y Source: Bloomberg, including consensus forecasts up to 3Q15, World Bank WDI 15
16 Rising fiscal and external gaps after the 2008/09 crisis Funded mainly through FDI and local currency debt LatAm current account deficit (% GDP) 3,0 1,5 LatAm fiscal deficit (% GDP) 3,0 1,5 0,0 0,2 0,0-1,0-1,5-1,5-3,0-4,5-2,9-3,3-3,0-4,5-3,9-6, ,0-5, Source: IMF WEO October
17 Rising public and private leverage Loose monetary and fiscal policies after the crisis Gross government debt (% GDP) Domestic credit private sector (% GDP) Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru 0 Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Source: IMF WEO October
18 Low and uneven growth in LatAm Latam-8 GDP growth (% y/y, PPP adjusted) 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0-1, : 2.8% y/y -0,6 0, LatAm Mercosur -2,8-1,9 1,7 Brazil Pacific Alliance 2,4 2,7 3,5 Mexico 2,3 2,8 3,2 Andean-3 2,6 3,7 3.8 LatAm-8 corresponds to the GDP weighted average of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela. Source: BTG Pactual and IMF WEO October
19 is at the crossroads Smooth normalization or going from mediocre to miserable 19
20 China slowdown, deleverage and demand rebalancing A tough balancing act 20
21 U.S. Fed interest rate liftoff Which way? 21
22 Negative TFP growth in Latin America Economic growth driven by labor and capital accumulation Labor growth: LatAm vs RoW (% y/y) TFP growth: LatAm vs RoW (% y/y) 3,0 1,5 1,2 2,5 2,0 1,5 2,0 2,3 1,7 1,7 1,0 0,5 0,5 0,3 0,6 0,1 1,0 0,9 0,8 0,0 0,5-0,5 0,0 Latin America EME & LDCs OECD -1,0-0,6 Latin America EME & LDCs OECD Source: The Conference Board The Conference Board Total Economy Database, May
23 Global economic outlook and Latin America Luis Oscar Herrera BTG Pactual Andean Region & Argentina October, 2015 For additional information, please read carefully the notice at the end of this presentation.
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