The Global Economic Outlook: Advanced and Emerging Economies

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1 43 rd Meeting of IDB Chief Economists of Central Banks and Finance Ministries The Global Economic Outlook: Advanced and Emerging Economies 13 April 2016 Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist ECOSCOPE blog: oecdecoscope.wordpress.com/

2 Topics Stronger global growth remains elusive Global trade downshift, investment, supply chain links China and the US rebalancing medium term prospects Price Inflation, asset inflation, exposures Policy recommendations to support more robust growth 2

3 Global growth forecasts: Revised down and growth flat in 2016 GDP forecasts Forecasts in Feb 2016 vs. Nov 2015 % pts Source: OECD Economic Outlook databases; and OECD calculations. World USA GBR Euro area DEU CAN 3

4 Investment is mixed generally weak or sluggish, except China Real fixed investment 1. OECD commodity exporters includes Australia, Canada, Chile, Mexico and Norway. Source: OECD Economic Outlook database. 4

5 TRADE OUTLOOK GVCS AND COMMODITIES 5

6 Slowdown in global trade growth Reflects and accentuates weak GDP growth Global trade volumes and GDP Note: World trade is goods plus services trade volumes. World GDP growth is measured at purchasing power parities. Source: OECD Economic Outlook database. 6

7 China Rebalancing: Implications for trade and commodities % of GDP Saving and investment Current account balance (rhs) Saving rate Investment rate % of GDP % Consumption and investment growth % Retail sales Fixed Asset Investment Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan

8 Nature of GVC trade may be changing China less processing/assembling, more at home % of goods exports Export by custom regime % of goods imports Import by custom regime Processing and Assembling Processing with Imported Material Ordinary Trade Processing and Assembling Processing with Imported Material Ordinary Trade

9 Sluggish Investment, GVC intensive accentuates trade slowdown Length of GVCs by Industry,

10 Investment, GVCs and China trade slowdown centres on East Asia Trade goods and services, volume % change 10 Avg % change EA15 EU27 USA JPN CHN DAE WLD 0 Source: OECD Economic Outlook Database

11 China and Latin America Trade Links Like, Not like Asia Annual exports to China, values US$ billion China share of total merchandise exports Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru % 80 25% 60 20% 15% 40 10% 20 5% % Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Source: OECD and IMF DOTS. 11

12 Investment in Latin America has been falling Real fixed investment Per cent of GDP 27 World Euro area Latin America and the Caribbean Source: IMF

13 Latin America: low participation in GVCs Attenuates transmission through that channel Backward GVC participation ratios, cross-country comparison as a percentage of country s gross exports (2011) Source: Kowalski et al (2015). 13

14 In particular, intra-regional integration in GVCs in Latin America is very low Backward participation Forward participation Source: Kowalski et al (2015). 14

15 China knock-on effects where in LatAm? slowdown among other EMEs, commodity price falls Q annual GDP growth (%) Change in GDP growth Y-o-y growth in 2015 Q4 compared to 2014 Q4 Commodity prices and China s share of global consumption Turkey India Korea Indonesia Mexico Philippines Chile South Africa Malaysia Russia Brazil % pts Intensive trade with China is where merchandise exports to China were above 2% of GDP in Source: OECD National Accounts database; IMF; UNCTAD. 15

16 MEDIUM TERM PROSPECTS 16

17 Rebalancing in China Consistent with Plan Objectives? Composition of growth in China Note: Manufacturing (secondary) includes construction. Source: Chinese National Bureau of Statistics; and People s Bank of China. 17

18 U.S. Growth Sustain global rebound alone? Contributions to quarterly US GDP growth Source: OECD Economic Outlook database 18

19 Question after global rebalancing China like the US or Germany? 19

20 FINANCIAL OUTLOOK 20

21 Sluggish demand leads to low inflation and weak wage growth in advanced economies Core inflation Compensation per employee Note: Latest month available. Core inflation is for consumer prices excluding food and energy. The private consumption deflator is used for the United States. Source: OECD Economic Outlook databases. 21

22 But inflation is high and rising in Latin America 15 World Inflation Annual end of period, per cent Euro area 12 Latin America and the Caribbean Emerging and developing Asia Source: IMF. 22

23 Financial markets are reassessing prospects, triggering lower and/or more volatile equity prices Share prices in major markets Volatility Index (VIX) of US equity prices Source: Thomson Reuters. 23

24 RMB/$ appears key to financial turmoil technical factors, herding, but also communication RMB/USD exchange rate and VIX Index Source: Thomson Reuters. 24

25 Risks of financial instability are substantial, particularly for EMEs Nominal effective exchange rates EMEs sovereign bond spreads EMBI Composite, basis points Source: Thomson Reuters. 25

26 In Latin America, sovereign spreads have increased and capital flows decreased EMBI basis point change EMBI versus Capital Inflows :Q3 Latin America Brazil Other EMEs Chile Mexico Colombia Peru Uruguay Ecuador Argentina 0 15 EMBI basis point change Brazil EMBI versus NEER :Q3 Latin America Other EMEs Mexico Colombia Chile Uruguay Peru Ecuador Change in gross capital inflows (GDP pp) -200 Percent change in nominal effective exchange rate Source: IMF. 26

27 Some EMEs are vulnerable to exchange rate shocks and high domestic debt Credit to corporations has increased Percent of GDP External liabilities are significant Percent of GDP, 2014 or latest available Note: Credit to non-financial corporates. For South Africa, 2008 rather than Source: OECD November 2015 Economic Outlook database; BIS; and OECD calculations. 27

28 A stronger collective policy response is needed. For advanced economies 28

29 Monetary policy working alone is not sufficient to support global demand Central bank balance sheets US federal funds rate expectations Note: Policy rate shows the top of the target range. 1. Future overnight market interest rates derived from overnight index swap rates. Source: Thomson Reuters; Bloomberg; and OECD calculations. 29

30 Fiscal policy is contractionary in many major economies, although not in China Change in the underlying primary balance Tighter policy Tighter policy Note: For China, change in the general government balance as a per cent of GDP from Source: OECD Economic Outlook databases. 30

31 Interest rates are very low, providing an opportunity to borrow and invest 2-year government bond yields Government bond yields have fallen and some are now negative over short horizons Source: Thomson Reuters. 31

32 Collective fiscal action promotes growth and fiscal sustainability 1 st year effects of a ½ per cent of GDP public investment stimulus by all OECD economies Change from baseline Collective action should focus on public investment and pro-growth structural policies Note: Simulation using the NiGEM model, based on a two-year increase in the level of government investment equivalent to ½ per cent of GDP per annum in all OECD countries. The euro area figures are a weighted average of Germany, France and Italy. Source: OECD calculations. 32

33 The pace of structural reforms shows insufficient ambition Responsiveness to OECD Going for Growth recommendations Share of recommendations implemented Note: Calculated for all countries for which recommendations are available. Emerging market economies include Brazil, Chile, China, Columbia, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Turkey and South Africa; Mexico and Turkey only prior to Advanced includes the rest of the OECD. Source: OECD Going for Growth 2016 (forthcoming). 33

34 In the EU, much more progress is needed to boost investment and productivity Juncker investment plan disappoints Deleveraging is needed for financial health Household and non-financial corporate debt Harmonising and reducing regulation in the EU could raise FDI, and boost trade intensity by 10-25% Deleveraging proceeded faster and further in the US than the euro area Source: European Commission; Eurostat; and Fournier et al. (2015). Source: Eurostat; OECD Main Statistical Database; and OECD National Accounts Database. 34

35 Summary Global growth flat-lined due to continued subdued global trade and investment China internal rebalancing changes GVCs Emerging market economies growth models have been exposed by the slowdown in trade and falling commodity prices Despite the boost from low commodity prices and interest rates, the most likely scenario is weak global growth in 2016 and 2017 Substantial downside risks centre on financial market volatility and emerging market debt In advanced economies, collective fiscal action and more ambition on structural policies would raise global growth and reduce financial risks Prepared by Eduardo Olaberria and William Witheridge. 35

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