GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
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1 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Professor Richard Barkham, PhD MRICS Global Chief Economist
2 MIDDLE EAST CRISIS 2
3 3
4 SO HERE S GDP GROWTH WITH RECESSIONS HIGHLIGHTED U.S. GDP growth % Change, Y-o-Y GEOPOLITICS CREATES 6.0 NOISE, 4.0 NOT RECESSIONS Jun-80 Jul-81 Aug-82 Sep-83 Oct-84 Nov-85 Dec-86 Jan-88 Feb-89 Mar-90 Apr-91 May-92 Jun-93 Jul-94 Aug-95 Sep-96 Oct-97 Nov-98 Dec-99 Jan-01 Feb-02 Mar-03 Apr-04 May-05 Jun-06 Jul-07 Aug-08 Sep-09 Oct-10 Nov-11 Dec-12 Jan-14 Source: Macrobond, CBRE Research.
5 GEOPOLITICS CREATES NOISE, NOT RECESSION 8.0 U.S. Embassy Bombed in Beirut 6.0 % Change, Y-o-Y Indira Gandhi Assassinated Iran/Iraq War Ends Tiananmen Square Fall of Soviet Union Regan Maastricht Treaty shot Mandela freed Glasnot Iran/Iraq War Falklands War Iraq invades Kuwait 1 st Gulf War Berlin Wall falls British rule of Hong Kong ends Creation of the Euro U.S. Invasion of Iraq September 11th Madrid bombing Russo Georgian War Gaza war Tsunami, Japan Jun-80 Jun-81 Jun-82 Jun-83 Jun-84 Jun-85 Jun-86 Jun-87 Jun-88 Jun-89 Jun-90 Jun-91 Jun-92 Jun-93 Jun-94 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 ISIS enters Syrian War Syrian Civil Crimean crisis War Source: Macrobond, CBRE Research. 5
6 INTEREST RATES CAUSE RECESSION, NOT GEOPOLITICS % 9.28% 6.53% 5.3% Jun-80 Aug-81 Oct-82 Dec-83 Feb-85 Apr-86 Jun-87 Aug-88 Oct-89 Dec-90 Feb-92 Apr-93 Jun-94 Aug-95 Oct-96 Dec-97 Feb-99 Apr-00 Jun-01 Aug-02 Oct-03 Dec-04 Feb-06 Apr-07 Jun-08 Aug-09 Oct-10 Dec-11 Feb-13 Apr-14 % Change, Y-o-Y Source: Macrobond, CBRE Research.
7 PERSPECTIVES ON HEALTH CRISES Date Epidemic Total Number of Fatalities Location U.S. GDP Growth H1N1 75,000,000 Europe, U.S. 8% H3N2 1,000,000 Worldwide 7.10% HIV/AIDS 35,000,000 Worldwide 146% Ebola 4,493 Africa, Europe, U.S. 2.6% 2009 H1N1 10,000 (U.S.) Worldwide -0.2% Source: World Health Organization. 7
8 VOLATILE BUT POSITIVE GLOBAL OUTLOOK TO 2018 GDP growth % Per Annum Source: Macrobond, CBRE Research. United States Non-OECD OECD Forecast Zone of danger 8
9 THE U.S. RECOVERY HAS BEEN WEAK SO FAR U.S. GDP Growth % Change, Y-o-Y Jun-80 May-81 Apr-82 Mar-83 Feb-84 Jan-85 Dec-85 Nov-86 Oct-87 Sep-88 Aug-89 Jul-90 Jun-91 May-92 Apr-93 Mar-94 Feb-95 Jan-96 Dec-96 Nov-97 Oct-98 Sep-99 Aug-00 Jul-01 Jun-02 May-03 Apr-04 Mar-05 Feb-06 Jan-07 Dec-07 Nov-08 Oct-09 Sep-10 Aug-11 Jul-12 Jun-13 May-14 Source: Macrobond, CBRE Research.
10 HELD BACK BY FISCAL CONTRACTION Government spending less taxes as % of GDP % of GDP Fiscal headwind Source: Macrobond, CBRE Research. 10
11 AND CONSUMER DE-LEVERAGING U.S. household debt to income ratio Ratio value Year Average De-leveraging headwind Mar-80 Apr-81 May-82 Jun-83 Jul-84 Aug-85 Sep-86 Oct-87 Nov-88 Dec-89 Jan-91 Feb-92 Mar-93 Apr-94 May-95 Jun-96 Jul-97 Aug-98 Sep-99 Oct-00 Nov-01 Dec-02 Jan-04 Feb-05 Mar-06 Apr-07 May-08 Jun-09 Jul-10 Aug-11 Sep-12 Oct-13 Source: Macrobond, CBRE Research. Debt to Income Ratio 11
12 AND WEAKNESS IN THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR Single-family housing starts Thousands Long-run average Headwind from housing market 8/1/1982 7/1/1983 6/1/1984 5/1/1985 4/1/1986 3/1/1987 2/1/1988 1/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/1991 9/1/1992 8/1/1993 7/1/1994 6/1/1995 5/1/1996 4/1/1997 3/1/1998 2/1/1999 1/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2002 9/1/2003 8/1/2004 7/1/2005 6/1/2006 5/1/2007 4/1/2008 3/1/2009 2/1/2010 1/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2013 Source: Macrobond, CBRE Research. 12
13 PENT UP DEMAND SHOULD BOOST CONSTRUCTION U.S Household Formation Millions per annum Supressed household formation Net number of households formed (LHS) 30-year average (RHS) Source: Macrobond, CBRE Research.
14 FALLING UNEMPLOYMENT WILL BOOST SPENDING Unemployment, Broad Definition U.6. (%) Official, Claimant Count Unemployment (%) Gap is narrowing Unemployment % Jan-94 Sep-94 May-95 Jan-96 Sep-96 May-97 Jan-98 Sep-98 May-99 Jan-00 Sep-00 May-01 Jan-02 Sep-02 May-03 Jan-04 Sep-04 May-05 Jan-06 Sep-06 May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14 Source: Macrobond, CBRE Research. 14
15 SO HOW LONG CAN THIS EXPANSION LAST? U.S. GDP Growth % Change, Y-o-Y Years 9 Years 7 Years 9 Years? Jun-80 Jun-81 Jun-82 Jun-83 Jun-84 Jun-85 Jun-86 Jun-87 Jun-88 Jun-89 Jun-90 Jun-91 Jun-92 Jun-93 Jun-94 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Source: Macrobond, CBRE Research. 15
16 BUT INTEREST RATES WILL TREND UP SLOWLY % Nominal 7.0 Central bank policy rate Interest rate, 10 year government bonds Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 Source: Oxford Economics, CBRE Research.
17 HOW WILL THE FALL IN OIL PRICES IMPACT? Current U.S. Dollars Source: HIS Global Insight 17
18 CHINA IS THE KEY EXTERNAL RISK
19 REAL ESTATE IS IN RETREAT China regional house prices % Change, Y-o-Y Beijing Guangzhou Shanghai Shenzhen Source: Macrobond, CBRE Research. 19
20 GROWTH HAS BEEN UNBALANCED China Consumption and Investment as % of GDP % of GDP Consumption Investment Source: Macrobond, CBRE Research. 20
21 THE SLOW DOWN IN CHINA IS NOT TOO BAD, SO FAR China GDP Growth % Y-o-Y China s new normal Source: Macrobond, CBRE Research. 21
22 THE EUROZONE IS NOT THE NEW JAPAN
23 EUROPE STARES AT DEFLATION? Eurozone Inflation % Y-o-Y 5 All Items Excluding Food & Energy Inflation to pick up Jan-01 Jun-01 Nov-01 Apr-02 Sep-02 Feb-03 Jul-03 Dec-03 May-04 Oct-04 Mar-05 Aug-05 Jan-06 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Source: Macrobond, CBRE Research. 23
24 EUROZONE ECONOMIC SENTIMENT IS RISING Relative to January May 2014 Average UK Hungary Ireland Germany Sweden EU Average Greece Portugal Spain Czech Republic Belgium Denmark Netherlands Poland Italy Romania Austria France Finland Difference from the long-term average 24 June-August 2014 June-August 2013
25 HOW DOES THIS AFFECT DENVER? 25
26 DENVER UNEMPLOYMENT Unemployment (%) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 26 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Denver Unemloyment U.S. Unemployment
27 DENVER OFFICE Unemployment (%) Denver Office Rent Growth Denver Unemployment Two year rent growth 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% Forecast 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, U.S. BLS. 27
28 DENVER OFFICE LEASING ACTIVITY BY INDUSTRY ( YTD) Technology 17% 14% Financial Services 5% 6% 6% 8% 8% 9% 14% 12% Energy Telecommunications Business Services Manufacturing-Transportation Healthcare Government Source: CBRE Research, Q
29 RENTAL GROWTH ( ) Cumulative Rent Growth (%) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Denver All U.S. -10% Retail Industrial Multifamily Source: CBRE Research Econometric Advisors. 29
30 DENVER ABSORPTION AND COMPLETIONS TO 2017 Sq. Ft. 25,000 Completions Absorption 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Office Retail Industrial Multifamily Source: CBRE Research Econometric Advisors. 30
31 DENVER RENT GROWTH TO 2017 Rent Growth (%) 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Office Retail Industrial Multifamily Source: CBRE Research Econometric Advisors. 31
32 CAPITALIZATION RATES Denver Average Capitalization Rates and Forecast Cap Rate (%) Office Industrial Multifamily Retail Forecast Source: CBRE EA, Real Capital Analytics, CBRE Research, Q
33 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Professor Richard Barkham, PhD MRICS Global Chief Economist
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