The role of genetically modified crops for food security
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1 The role of genetically modified crops for food security Matin Qaim University of Goettingen, Germany Mexico City, 29 September 2016
2 Achieving sustainable food security will require game-changing technologies from all areas of science Genetics / Breeding Agronomy Digital technologies Etc.
3 Common approaches in plant breeding Mass selection Backcrossing Wide crosses Conventional breeding ( natural and safe ) Hybridization Mutagenesis Marker-assisted selection Agrobacterium-mediated gene transfer Biolistics Genome editing Genetic engineering (GMOs) ( unnatural and risky )
4 GMOs: controversial topic The public and policy debate is primarily focused on risks Regulatory procedures were put in place treating GMOs very differently from other technologies However, 30 years of research and 20 years of commercial experience have shown that GM crops are not more risky than conventionally bred crops This conclusion was drawn by: WHO Union of German Academies of Science Brazilian Academy of Sciences FAO British Royal Society Mexican Academy of Sciences OECD British Medical Association Indian Academy of Sciences European Research Directorate French Academy of Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences EASAC (European Academies) French Academy of Medicine Nuffield Council on Bioethics International Council for Science National Academy of Sciences (USA) Etc. The public has not taken note of this scientific evidence
5 Beyond risks, what do we know about GM crop impacts?
6 Global area cultivated with GMOs Million ha Only two modified traits: 1. Herbicide tolerance 2. Insect resistance Total Developing countries Source: James (2015)
7 Impact studies Many impact studies carried out over the last 20 years: ü Focusing on different countries ü With different types of data ü With different methodologies ü With different results GMO supporters and opponents refer to their preferred studies in the debate, leading to further polarization Meta-analysis can be useful to: ü Draw broader lessons from the cumulated evidence ü Explain reasons for heterogeneity in impacts
8 Global meta-analysis of GM crop impacts Source: Klümper and Qaim (2014) 68.2*** Percent *** *** *** significant at 1% level -60 Crop yield (n=451) Pesticide quantity (n=121) Production cost (n=115) Farmer profit (n=136)
9 Breakdown by type of GM trait All GM crops Insect resistance Herbicide tolerance Yield 21.6*** 24.9*** 9.3** Pesticide quantity -36.9*** -41.7*** 2.4 Source: Klümper and Qaim (2014). In some regions, weed resistance to glyphosate has reduced the benefits of herbicide-tolerant crops over time.
10 Breakdown by geographical region Meta-regression results (percentage point effects) Yield Pesticide Farmer profit Developing country (dummy) 14.2*** -19.2*** 59.5*** Source: Klümper and Qaim (2014). Developing-country farmers benefit more, because: 1. They suffer more from pest and disease problems 2. Most GM technologies are not patented there, hence seeds are cheaper than in developed countries
11 What do we know about GM crop impacts in a small farm context?
12 Bt cotton adoption in India In 2015: 11.6 m ha (97%) Million ha Grown by 8 million smallholders
13 Impact analysis with panel data Survey of 530 farm households in four states Four waves of panel data ( ) Analysis of: impacts impact dynamics
14 Bt impact on insecticide use in India 7 Active ingredient (kg/ha) % -50% Source: Krishna and Qaim (2012) 0 Conventional Bt Bt Conventional
15 Bt impact on yield and farmer profit in India Bt effect Yield (kg/ha) 311*** (+24%) Profit ($/ha) 94*** (+50%) Change over time 0 / + 0 / + Bt impact on household living standard Bt effect Household consumption (US$) 321** (+18%) Calorie intake (kcal/person) 145*** (+5%) Sources: Kathage and Qaim (2012), Qaim and Kouser (2013).
16 Household income effects per ha of cotton Bt US$/ha $250/ha x 11.6 m = $2.9 billion Conventional Source: Subramanian and Qaim (2010) All households Extremely poor Moderately poor Non-poor
17 Future prospects Evidence suggests that GM crops can be beneficial for farmers and the environment Productivity increases also reduce market prices and make products more accessible for consumers So far, very limited range of GM technologies. Future technologies could be much more beneficial Many interesting GM technologies tested in the field: Drought-tolerant and salt-tolerant maize, rice, and wheat Maize and rice with higher nitrogen use efficiency Micronutrient-rich rice, sorghum, cassava, and banana Etc. Will these technologies ever be commercialized?
18 Serious overregulation Many countries in Africa and Asia have established EU-style regulatory systems (strict, complex, heavily politicized) Fuels public notion that GM crops are dangerous Makes technology unnecessarily expensive Contributes to industry concentration (multinationals) Contributes to focus on large countries and selected crops with large commercial potential Even humanitarian projects suffer from the same hurdles EU anti-biotech attitudes have far-reaching global implications Arguing that gene editing is different will not solve the broader issue that perceptions are driving science policies
19 Conclusion Game-changing technologies can only materialize when the global society is sufficiently open for them Issues of public acceptance can be overcome with honest science communication (more integrity in the debate) The CGIAR should play a bigger role in this endeavor, as this will be key for achieving sustainable food security Palgrave Macmillan, 2016
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