The Lodging Conference Adam Lair, MAI Managing Director, Senior

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1 The Lodging Conference 2016 Adam Lair, MAI Managing Director, Senior

2 Transaction Volume in Billions U.S. Hotel Transaction Volume ($2.5M+) $45 $200,000 $40 $176,068 $180,000 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 52% 15% $148,895 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 Average Price per Key $0 $60,000 Sales Volume ($ in Billions) Price Per Key Source: Real Capital Analytics (RCA)

3 Transaction Volume in Billions $7 U.S. Hotel Transaction Volume ($2.5-10M) $60,000 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 8% $50,903 $54,775 $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 Average Price per Key $1 $35,000 28% $0 $30,000 Sales Volume ($ in Billions) Price Per Key Source: Real Capital Analytics (RCA)

4 Transaction Volume in Billions $40 U.S. Hotel Transaction Volume ($10M+) $300,000 $35 $278,104 $280,000 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 50% 19% $225,954 $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 Average Price per Key $5 $140,000 $0 $120,000 Sales Volume ($ in Billions) Price Per Key Source: Real Capital Analytics (RCA)

5 Transaction Volume in Billions $40 U.S. Hotel Transaction Volume ($10M+ by Type) $30 $20 $10 $0 $9 $8 $11 $9 $8 $7 $5 $3 $25 $15 $19 $18 $16 $2 $3 $14 $12 $11 $5 $2 $7 $2 77% 37% $6 $1 $14 $ H 2016H Average Price per Key Individual Portfolio Source: Real Capital Analytics (RCA)

6 Trends in Transaction Price Per Room Year Hotels Sold $10M+ % Change Average Price Per Room % Change 2016H % $225,954-19% 2015H , % 248,216 19% % 209,414 5% % 198,707 4% % 190,913-3% % 197,050 6% % 185,129 46% % 126,843-30% % 182,257 4% % 175,887-9% % 193,925 22% ,550 Year Hotels Sold $2.5 10M % Change Average Price Per Room % Change 2016H % $54,775 8% 2015H , % 52,352 6% % 49,225 6% % 46,361 6% % 43,840 4% % 42,312 4% % 40,681-1% % 41,254-23% % 53,245 3% % 51,762 2% % 50,525 0% , Source: Real Capital Analytics (RCA)

7 Historical Hotel Buyer Makeup Source: Real Capital Analytics (RCA)

8 H Sales by Price per Room ($10M+) $750k+ $ k 60 $ k $ k $ k <$100k 32 47% % H 2015H 2016H 43% Source: Real Capital Analytics (RCA)

9 Top 20 Active Markets by Volume 2016H Market $ Volume (Millions) $/Room # Properties NYC Metro $2,333.2 $385, DC Metro , Chicago , SF Metro , LA Metro , So Fla , Boston , Seattle , Orlando , Tampa , Atlanta , Phoenix , Portland ,932 7 San Diego ,504 8 Nashville , Dallas , Denver , Detroit , Hawaii ,223 4 Minneapolis , Source: Real Capital Analytics (RCA)

10 Historical Hotel Lender Makeup Source: Real Capital Analytics (RCA)

11 Cap Rates Extracted from Sales Increasing 10.0% 9.5% 9.2% 9.1% 9.0% 8.5% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 8.6% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.4% % 7.5% 7.0% 7.7% 7.3% 7.3% 7.1% 7.0% 7.7% 7.7% 7.8% 7.6% 7.6% /16 July 6.5% 6.0% HVS - Limited/Select- Service RCA - Limited-Service HVS - Full-Service RCA - Full-Service Source: HVS & RCA

12 IRRs Decline Despite Rising Cap Rates Full-Service Select-Serv & Extended-Stay Limited-Service Source: HVS

13 15.0 Equity Yields Consistent with IRRs Full-Service Select-Serv & Extended-Stay Limited-Service Source: HVS

14 Hotels Maintain Return Premium Over Other Property Types 12.0 Full-Service Lodging Luxury Lodging Select-Service Lodging Limited-Service Lodging Regional Mall CBD Office Suburban Office Apartment Source: PWC Real Estate Investor Survey

15 Soft Landing for Values Through 2018, Recovery % 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% % -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% HVI Occupancy ADR RevPAR Source: HVS/STR Hotel Valuation Index

16 Top 10 HVI Markets Oakland 12% 6 San Francisco 7% 2 San Jose 10% 7 Las Vegas 7% 3 Huntsville 9% 8 Sacramento 6% 4 Los Angeles 8% 9 Phoenix 5% 5 Charlotte 8% 10 New Orleans 5% Source: HVS/STR Hotel Valuation Index

17 Bottom 10 HVI Markets Albuquerque 2% 67 Denver 3% 63 Portland 2% 68 Cleveland 4% 64 Miami 3% 69 Atlantic City 4% 65 Hartford 3% 70 New York 8% 66 Chicago 3% 71 Tallahassee 11% Source: HVS/STR Hotel Valuation Index

18 Markets with Most & Least Supply Through 2019 Nashville, TN New York, NY Charleston, SC Milwaukee, WI Cleveland, OH New Orleans, LA Indianapolis, IN Columbus, OH Houston, TX Dallas/Fort Worth, TX Syracuse, NY Jacksonville, FL West Palm Beach, FL Rochester, NY Long Island, NY Santa Fe, NM San Francisco/San Mateo, CA Tucson, AZ Reno, NV Atlantic City, NJ 8.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Source: HVS

19 Supply Growth Peaks Through 2019 (STR Top 25 Markets) Detroit Houston Atlanta Chicago Dallas Minneapolis Nashville Anaheim Boston Los Angeles Miami New Orleans Denver Oahu Orlando San Diego San Francisco St. Louis Norfolk Philadelphia Tampa New York Phoenix Seattle Washington, D.C Source: HVS

20 Key Takeaways Investor makeup will dictate transactions and pricing in the near term. Transaction levels for 2016 should be well short of 2015 and just short of Transactions should increase in 2017, but growth will be limited by a widening buy-sell gap and the availability of capital. Primary, gateway markets will continue to be attractive to investors, particularly foreign capital. Capitalization rates are expected to rise slightly due to more conservative underwriting on higherpriced assets. Supply remains a concern in primary markets, although the availability of construction financing could limit the amount of new supply that comes to fruition. Few storm clouds are on the horizon for occupancy and ADR. Most markets expected to experience steady growth over the next few years. Underlying values should grow slightly and peak in 2017 on the strength of improving fundamentals, although leverage remains the limiting factor. Strong recovery expected in 2019 as stable fundamentals combine with loosening capital availability, a return to an ideal investor mix, and a more certain outlook on the near-term investment cycle

21 Adam R. Lair, MAI Managing Director, Senior Partner +1 (504) Superior results through unrivalled hospitality intelligence. Everywhere

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