The Business of Low Cost Carriers and their impact on the industry

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1 The Business of Low Cost Carriers and their impact on the industry Dr Frankie O Connell Tunis, Tunisia October 2008

2 Outline of Presentation Setting the scene Deregulation (The mechanism that have allowed LCCs to flourish) Market share of passenger traffic in Europe Competitive advantage of Low Cost Carriers over Network Airlines Cost structure of the Low Cost Carriers Examining the fundamentals that are driving the growth of low cost airlines Other factors that are driving the profits of low cost airlines

3 Airline Statistics for 2006 Passengers Transported Share of World s RPKs* Full Service Airlines 1.55 billion 80.3% Low Cost Carriers 352 million 10.5% Regional Airlines 209 million 4.0% Charter Airlines 76 million 5.3% Total 2.19 billion 100% * Share by top 200 world airlines Source: Airline Business, August 2007

4 Low Cost Carrier developments Low Cost Routes 2000 Low Cost Routes 2006 Source: CAA Short-Haul fleet for Network and Low Cost Carriers (October 2007) Leading Current Firm Options Leading Euro- Current Firm Options LCCs fleet orders Majors fleet orders easyjet Air France Ryanair Lufthansa Air Berlin British Airways SkyEurope Iberia Alitalia (75 MD-82s) SAS (42 MD-81/82/87)* Total orders leading LCCs Total orders leading Majors Source: * Excludes Aviation the 27 Q400s Strategy which(march were grounded 2005) inand October SkyEurope 2007 Source: ATI

5 The change in legislation that allowed low cost carriers to flourish European Airline Deregulation (3 phases) The three packages agreed by the European council of ministers 1 st Package ( ) - It abandoned the equal sharing of capacity on routes served by airlines of the two states. - It facilitated the entry new airlines by opening up new market access - Allowed agreements between community airlines relating to capacity, tariffs co-ordination, revenue pooling, runway slot allocation, CRS and pax handling 2 nd package ( ) - Further loosened constraints on pricing, capacity restrictions and market access - The end of immigration and customs controls between the 12 states Source: Council Directive of 14 December 1987 on fares for scheduled air services between Member States (87/601/EEC) and Council Decision of 14 December 1987 on the sharing of passenger capacity on scheduled air services between member states (87/602/EEC) Brussels: Commission of the European Communities

6 3rd Package Onwards (Full European Deregulation) - Creation of an effective Open Skies policy within Europe such that the European Community would become a single domestic market - Airlines from member states can operate with full traffic rights on any route within the EU without capacity restrictions - Governments may impose restrictions only on issues such as the environment - There are no price controls: Airlines can set their own fares and cargo tariffs (EU regulations 2409/92).This is why Ryanair can offer free flights - The airline must be majority owned and controlled by any of the member states or their nationals. Ryanair Hubs - Dublin - Stockholm Deutsche BA Ryanair KLM UK - Shannon - Frankfurt - London Stansted - Milan - London Luton - Rome - Brussels - Brussles - Barcelona Source: CEC (1992) Council Regulation No. 2407/92 on licensing of air carriers; Council Regulation No. 2408/92 on access Community air carriers to intra community air routes, and Concil Regulation No 2409/92 on fares and rates for air servives. Official Journal 24 August, Brussels: Commission of the European Communities

7 Traffic growth on the London to Barcelona route ,000,000 Passengers 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 Low Cost Carriers 1,000,000 Iberia 500,000 British Airways Source: CAA data

8 Deregulation has created many opportunities

9 Traffic growth on the London to Venice route (Trendline extrapolated from 1997 to 2006) 1,000, , , , , , , ,000 Extrapolated 200,000 Source: UK CAA, ,000

10 Change in traffic between the UK and Europe

11 Ryanair and easyjet top 6 country markets Source: OAG data Ryanair France Italy Ireland 1049 Germany 636 Spain UK Weekly departures Weekly departures, July 2008 data easyjet The UK is 2.5 times larger than the next biggest market in terms of weekly departures easyjet did operate to Cork, Shannon and Knock during 2005/06

12 Ryanair and easyjet s weekly departures in mainland Europe July 2008 data Switzerland Portugal Poland Netherlands Sweden Belgium Greece Czech Denmark Morocco Norway Latvia Hungary Slovakia Malta Austria Finland Lithania Cyprus Croatia Turkey Romania Gibralter Estonia Bulgaria Slovenia Egypt Weekly departures 400 Source: OAG data Ryanair easyjet Ryanair has no competition from easyjet in Ireland, Finland, Lithuania, Norway, Slovakia and Sweden, while easyjet has no competition at

13 The impact of low cost carriers on charter routes London to: Malaga Ibiza Alicante Tenerife (Canaries) Las Palmas (Canaries) 802, , , , , , , , , ,000 % decrease 2000 v % -49% -62% -26% -38% Forcing the charters to: Offer seat only flights Operate to destinations 4+ hours from London (e.g. Turkey/Egypt) Source: CAA data

14 (April 2007 data) UK Spain Irish Republic Italy Poland Germany Sweden Hungary Belgium Holland Czech Republic Norway Switzerland Finland Portugal Denmark Austria France Greece EU average 30% 0% 10% Source: OAG data, October % 30% 40% 50% 60%

15 British Airways operating results by region 00/01 05/06 2,500 2,000 1,896 1,500 1,055 1, ,000 The Americas Africa Middle East India Asia UK and Europe Source: BA till 2004/05 and estimated for 2005/06

16 The short-haul exposure of the European network airlines (2005 data) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% I M B ir a nn i F S A S us g in L r e A ia r e Ib Short Haul Source: Company Reports lia a it Al ce sa n n a ra th F f r Lu Ai Long Haul BA

17 The decline in Yields in the EU and US markets ( ) Index Source: IATA EU Short-haul US domestic 07E

18 Decline of intra-european business class passengers 35 % business class passengers BA BD 2003 KL Source: Analysis from the Association of European Airlines (TARRY, 2004) LH SK

19 Where are the low cost carrier passengers coming from? (A study of the German Market, 2002 data) Classification of low cost passengers 37% 100% 4% % Classification of new passengers 8% 15% 75% 75% 59% 6% 100% % % % 50% 25% 25% Total Other Otherwise travelled by rail Otherwise travelled by car Total No details Shift within airline market New passengers Otherwise would not have travelled 0 0 Source: NFO Intratest, 2002; Monitor Group Analysis, Hapag Lloyd, The Future of Air Travel conference, London, 8-9 November 2004

20 Passenger Traffic on Kuwait - Alexandria route , ,000 90,000 45, Other Airlines on route Jazerra Airways Source: Jazerra Airways

21 Passenger Traffic on Kuwait - Sharm El Sheikh route ,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Other airlines on route Jazerra Airways Source: Jazerra Airways

22 Low Cost Carriers in the Middle East are gaining market share (Capacity Share - Seats) Millions of Seats Nov 2001 Nov 2002 Nov 2003 Nov 2004 Full Service Source: OAG Nov 2005 LCC Nov 2006 Nov 2007

23 Air Arabia Air Arabia started with just two A320s - by mid 2008 has 14 has 30 more on order with options for a further 15 A320s Operates to 20 countries with 40 routes to some eclectic destinations such as Armenia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Sudan and Syria. Over 30% of its capacity is dedicated to serving 11 Indian destinations In 2007, Air Arabia carried 2.7 million passengers (up 53% on 2006) Has an average load factor of over 86% At its main base at Sharjah, Air Arabia has 60% of the airport s traffic

24 Number of destinations served by Air Arabia and Jazeera Air Arabia Jazeera Airways Source: Air Arabia, Jazeera Airways 58% of Air Arabia traffic is to Middle east countries: Wants more access Air Arabia will have 34 aircraft based at Sharjah by 2010 Jazeera has 35 aircraft on order

25 Air Arabia s break-even load factor and actual load factor % 80% 80% 79% 77% 73% ve i s res p 84% Im 70% 60% 40% 20% 0% Break-even load factor Source: Air Arabia 2007 Actual load factor

26 Market share of airlines in Europe (Seat capacity; June 2007 data) Others 47.0% TUIfly 2.0% Spanair 2.0% KLM 2.0% Turkish Airlines 3.0% Air Berlin 3.0% Alitalia 4.0% Luthansa 7.0% British Airways 4.0% Ryanair 7.0% Air France 6.0% Source: OAG, June 2007 Iberia 4.0% SAS 4.0% easyjet 5.0%

27 Market share of low cost airlines in Europe (Seat capacity, June 2007 data) Others 25.0% Ryanair 20% Thomsonfly 3.0% Vueling 3.0% Germanwings 3.0% Air Europa 3.0% Air One 4.0% easyjet 15% Air Berlin 9% Source: OAG, June 2007 Flybe 5.0% TUIfly 5.0% Spanair 5.0%

28 Direct competition between Ryanair and easyjet (December 2007 data) Ryanair Weekly Frequency easyjet Weekly Frequency Alicante Basel 3 Alicante Liverpool 7 Alicante London Stansted 7 Krakow Liverpool 3 Madrid Liverpool 3 Palma Liverpool 4 Palma London Stansted 7 Rome Ciampino East Midlands 7 Rome Ciampino Madrid 7 Valencia London Stansted 14 6 of the 10 key routes are between the UK and Spain Source: OAG Max December

29 The operation and cost model of Ryanair

30 The competitive advantage of the low cost carrier (2005 data) Lower compensation costs Higher crew productivity & commonality Reduced cabin crew 11.6c ( /ASK) High aircraft utilisation New generation aircraft and commonality Fuel hedging, winglets Labour 0.5 Aircraft and fuel 1.2 Direct sales only No GDS Fees No commission on ticket sales Distribution, product and overhead 2.2 Use of secondary airports Low ground handling charges Allows for quick aircraft turnarounds Airport charges, ground handling 20% more seats/aircraft 2.4 Seat Density c ( /ASK) Ryanair s cost advantage Average unit cost of British Airways, Air France and Lufthansa Note: Stage lengths are adjusted Source: IATA Airline Cost Performance, March 2007 Unit cost of Ryanair

31 Network airlines have been unable to close the cost gap on LCCs (Intra-EU, 800 km segment) European Network Airlines (i.e. Air France, Lufthansa and British Airways) Cost per ASK ( cent) 10-38% 8-52% -40% Easyjet -64% 6 4 Ryanair Source: IATA airline cost performance (2006)

32 Ryanair s cost structure (US$cents per ASK) 2007 Staff Costs Depreciation + Amortization Fuel and Oil Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul Marketing & Distribution1 Aircraft Rentals Route Charges Airport and Handling charges? Other Operating Expenses 2006 % difference 2007 v % +13.6% -15.3% +16.6% -10.0% - 8.8% -4.5% -5.7% Total Operating Costs (UScents/ASK) % 1 Ryanair opened a large number of routes in 2006/07 and added 3 bases. Source: Ryanair accounts

33

34 The competitive advantage of Air Arabia over Emirates (2006 data) Fuel and Oil 24.3c (AED cent per ASK) Employees 2.5 Aircraft Operating 2.3 Distribution 1.1 Handling 2.1 Seating Density Catering 0.6 Other Air Arabia s cost advantage over Emirates Unit cost of Emirates Note: Stage lengths are adjusted (AED cent per ASK) Unit cost of Air Arabia (AED cent per ASK) Source: IATA, Emirates, Air Arabia, SHUAA Capital

35 Operating Cost Comparison for Ryanair and Air Arabia (2007 data) 100% 90% 6.2% 15.2% 80% 11% 70% 60% 3.2% 4.2% 2.3% 2.5% 15.2% 13.8% 3.8% 11.3% 50% 40% 38% 30% 20% 10% 0% 39.4% 7.6% 12.3% 14% Ryanair Air Arabia Others Airports Route charges Aircraft Rentals Marketing & Distribution Maintenance Fuel Depreciation Staff The average age of Arabia s fleet is just 2 years No depreciation charge Air Arabia s route charges of 15.2% also include airport costs Arabia has 30% of its tickets sold via its website, 53% by travel agents in 2007

36 Airport Charges at various LCC bases (2007 data) Lack of secondary airports in MDEA region may not be a restriction $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 Sharjah Dubai Kuwait Bahrain Jeddah Riyadh Stansted Luton Airport charges for an A320 (MTOW 55 Tonnes with 75% load factor) Charges include landing, parking for 24 hours, passenger charge and security charge Source: IATA Airport and navigation charges

37

38 Sama s strategy and marketing As part of the SAMA s initial marketing campaign it gave away 10,000 free seats. All these seats were sold in less than 24 hours. According to the airline s own research the most important factors for its passengers when selecting a flight were: Price of Ticket (78%) Reliability/On-time schedule (68%). (Source: Quoted in Anna Aero 24th August 2007) With lower fares and more attention on customer service, Sama will stimulate the Saudi market while attracting passengers from Saudia. In Response Saudi will setup its own low cost carrier (source ATI 18th April 2007)

39 Principle reason for travelling on a low cost carrier Surveys conducted with Ryanair, Air Asia and Air Deccan 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Fare Ryanair Schedule Air Asia Air Deccan Source: O Connell and Williams (2005; 2006) Journal of Air Transport Management Other

40 The opportunities created by low cost carriers The LCCs had a very positive impact on the local economic community (Bypassing major cities) Hotels Restaurants Car rental facilities Triggered the formation of new tourism related industries At Cologne (Bonn) The average spending of each incoming passenger was 285 per passenger per trip Tourism The region earned 147 million from having the extra air traffic in 2003 Local Businesses (e.g. Frankfurt Hahn) The area surrounding Hahn reported an increase in the number of businesses from 30 in 1996 to 103 by 2003 Source:

41 Big Issue today is how to make additional revenue

42 Dynamic Packaging

43 Ryanair s Ancillary Revenues ( ) millions 2006 Hotels, travel insurance; excess baggage; sales of rail and bus tickets; debit/credit cards % diff 06 v 07 45% Car Rentals Revenues % In-flight Sales % Internet related services* % % Total *Commission from products sold on websites linked to Ryanair.com Ancillary Revenues made up around 16% of Ryanair s total revenues in 2007 up from 15.3% in 2006 Source: Ryanair

44 0% No leg room/comfort Poor punctuality Poor crew service Not company policy No seat allocation Europe No prestige No paper ticket Americas No or poor IFE system Poor business facilities 40% No or poor food/drinks No miles to earn No low fares when booking No lounges No frequent flyer program No connections No business class Inconvenient flight schedules Concerns over safety Behaviour of other passengers inconvenient Airport location Low Cost Carrier Drawbacks Asia Pacific 30% 20% 10% Source :IATA Corporate Air Travel Survey, 2006

45 Thanks very much

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