The Economic Impacts from Operation of Canada s Energy Pipelines
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1 The Economic Impacts from Operation of Canada s Energy Pipelines A SPECIAL REPORT PREPARED FOR THE CANADIAN ENERGY PIPELINE ASSOCIATION by Angevine Economic Consulting Ltd. October 2013
2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 1 Results of the I-O Model Simulations A. Impacts from operation of crude oil transmission pipelines 2 B. Impacts from operation of crude oil and NGL transmission pipelines (combined) 3 C. Impacts from operation of Canada s natural gas transmission pipelines 5 D. Impacts from operation of all transmission pipelines:crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas 8 E. Impact summary 9 Detailed Methodology 10 Energy Pipelines Included in the Analysis 12 THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM OPERATION OF CANADA S ENERGY PIPELINES OCTOBER 2013
3 THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM OPERATION OF CANADA S ENERGY PIPELINES Introduction This report is a summary of the findings from using the most recent (2009) version of the Statistics Canada Interregional Input/Output (I-O) Model to evaluate the Canadian economic impacts from the operation of Canada s energy transmission pipelines. The analysis was undertaken by Gerry Angevine of Angevine Economic Consulting Ltd., in collaboration with Rick DeWolf of R. DeWolf Consulting during the summer of 2013 on behalf of the Canadian Energy Pipeline Association (CEPA). The data required to perform the analysis, essentially gross operating revenues was obtained from annual reports and information filings submitted to regulatory authorities. In the case of private, non-regulated companies, CEPA helpfully provided some information; in other cases the required operating revenue data was estimated. 1 THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM OPERATION OF CANADA S ENERGY PIPELINES OCTOBER 2013
4 Results of I-O Model Simulations A. Impacts from operation of crude oil transmission pipelines Table 1 summarizes the impacts on GDP, labour income and jobs from operation of Canada s crude oil transmission pipelines in The I-O Model simulation results suggest that GDP was boosted by an estimated $3.4 billion with almost half of the effect focused on Alberta, and a quarter in Saskatchewan. At $1.3 billion, the direct impact on GDP in Alberta was a bit more than half of the direct impacts in the country as a whole. In part, this is because the large crude oil transmission companies are headquartered there. About 43 per cent of the estimated $830 million impact on labour income was realized in Alberta, 23 per cent on Saskatchewan, and 14 per cent in Ontario. As with GDP, significant impacts occurred in all parts of Canada, but especially in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario. According to the Model, operation of the crude oil pipelines gave rise to more than 11,000 fulltime equivalent jobs of which one-third were in Alberta, one-fifth in Saskatchewan and 16 per cent in Ontario. Table 1 Economic Impacts from Operation of Crude Oil Transmission Pipelines Gross Domestic Product Millions of 2012 $ BC AB SK MB ON QC Other Canada Direct , ,360.5 Indirect Direct & Indirect , ,096.5 Induced Total , ,418.1 Labour Income Millions of 2012 $ BC AB SK MB ON QC Other Canada Direct Indirect Direct & Indirect Induced Total Number of Full-time Equivalent Jobs BC AB SK MB ON QC Other Canada Direct , ,263 Indirect 574 2,011 1, , ,110 Direct & Indirect 649 2,853 2, , ,373 Induced ,959 Total 971 3,794 2,721 1,027 1, ,332 2 THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM OPERATION OF CANADA S ENERGY PIPELINES OCTOBER 2013
5 B. Impacts from operation of crude oil and NGL transmission pipelines (combined) Table 2 summarizes the impacts on the three major economic indicators from operation of both crude oil and NGL transmission pipelines. The distribution of the effects is much the same as in the crude oil alone scenario with the main difference being that the overall impacts are a bit greater. The overall impact on GDP, for example, is $270 million greater at $3.7 billion and labour income is boosted by an additional $65 million to total $895 million. In addition with NGL transmission included, the system supports approximately 12,000 full-time job equivalents about 800 more than in the crude-oil-only scenario. In each case, the lion s share of the incremental impacts occurs in Alberta. Table 2 Economic Impacts from Operation of Crude Oil and NGL Transmission Pipelines Gross Domestic Product Millions of 2012 $ BC AB SK MB ON QC Other Canada Direct , ,550.0 Indirect Direct & Indirect , ,342.5 Induced Total , ,689.0 Labour Income Millions of 2012 $ BC AB SK MB ON QC Other Canada Direct Indirect Direct & Indirect Induced Total Number of Full-time Equivalent Jobs BC AB SK MB ON QC Other Canada Direct , ,417 Indirect 600 2,231 1, , ,553 Direct & Indirect 675 3,176 2, , ,970 Induced 342 1, ,184 Total 1,017 4,216 2,842 1,060 2, ,154 3 THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM OPERATION OF CANADA S ENERGY PIPELINES OCTOBER 2013
6 Table 3 illustrates for each province, the industries where the jobs supported by operation of the oil and liquids transmission pipelines are concentrated. In almost every case, most of the jobs are in the transportation and warehousing industry classification, followed by finance, insurance and real estate; professional and technical services; and administration, waste management and remediation industries. Operation of these pipelines also supports a large number of positions in the wholesale and retail trade industries, especially in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Ontario. In both Ontario and Quebec, manufacturing industries account for a larger proportion of the total number of positions arising from operation of the pipelines than in the other provinces. Table 3 Full-Time Equivalent Jobs from Crude Oil and NGL Pipeline Operation* QC ON MB SK AB BC NWT Canada Crop and animal production Mining, quarrying, and oil & gas extraction Utilities Repair construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing ,185 1, ,057 Information and cultural industries Finance, insurance, real estate, & leasing ,583 Professional, scientific & technical services ,254 Administration & support, waste management, & remediation ,204 Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment and recreation Accommodation and food services Other services (except public administration) Non-profit institutions serving households Government education services Other municipal government services Total 808 2,010 1,060 2,842 4,216 1, ,154 * Total values do not reflect the sum of individual cells as industries and jurisdictions with relatively minor jobs impacts have been omitted. Source: Statistics Canada natural gas transmission pipeline impact analysis, Table THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM OPERATION OF CANADA S ENERGY PIPELINES OCTOBER 2013
7 C. Impacts from operation of Canada s natural gas transmission pipelines The impacts from operation of Canada s natural gas transmission lines are summarized in Table 4. For confidentiality reasons, Statistics Canada could not break out the direct and indirect effects for New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, these were estimated by assuming that for those provinces the relationships of direct and indirect impacts to the sum of both types of impacts is the same as for Saskatchewan and Manitoba combined. At about $5 billion, the annual boost to GDP is almost $1.5 billion greater than in the crude oil and liquids transmission. Alberta realizes about 40 per cent of the total GDP impact, or $2 billion. Ontario benefits to the extent of about 22 per cent of the total, followed by Saskatchewan with 15 per cent. Labour income is boosted by about a billion dollars a year through the operation of the natural gas transmission pipelines, with the direct impacts accounting for more than half of the total, and the indirect effects about 30 per cent. Thirty-five per cent of the total impact is felt in Alberta, but as much as 24 per cent of the support for labour income occurs in Ontario where, as with GDP, the indirect and induced effects are quite substantial. 5 THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM OPERATION OF CANADA S ENERGY PIPELINES OCTOBER 2013
8 According to the Model, operation of the natural gas transmission pipelines is associated with almost 13,000 full-time equivalent jobs. Alberta and Ontario each receive about 26 per cent of the employment benefit. Saskatchewan and British Columbia also benefit from substantial shares. Table 4 Economic Impacts from Operation of Natural Gas Transmission Pipelines Gross Domestic Product Millions of 2012 $ BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS Other Canada Direct , ,277.1 Indirect Direct & Indirect , , ,756.7 Induced Total , , ,135.6 Labour Income Millions of 2012 $ BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS Other Canada Direct Indirect Direct & Indirect Induced Total ,052.8 Number of Full-time Equivalent Jobs BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS Other Canada Direct 271 1,581 1, ,533 Indirect 1, , ,798 Direct & Indirect 1,392 2,470 1, , ,331 Induced , ,534 Total 1,898 3,375 2, , ,865 6 THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM OPERATION OF CANADA S ENERGY PIPELINES OCTOBER 2013
9 As with the crude oil and NGL transmission pipelines, the I-O Model results shine some light on the industries where jobs supported by operation of the natural gas transmission lines would be concentrated. The industries most affected are indicated by the summary provided in Table 5. Similar to the oil and liquids transmission case, the transportation and warehousing; finance, insurance and real estate; professional and technical services; administration, waste management and remediation industries; and wholesale and retail trade industries benefit the most. But with natural gas transmission the repair construction industry is impacted to a greater extent for some reason than with liquids transmission. Table 5 Full-time Equivalent Jobs from Operation of Natural Gas Transmission Pipelines* NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC Canada Crop and animal production Mining, quarrying, and oil & gas extraction Utilities Repair construction ,193 Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing , ,183 1, ,948 Information and cultural industries Finance, insurance, real estate, & leasing Professional, scientific & technical services Administration & support, waste management, & remediation , Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment and recreation Accommodation and food services Other services (except public administration) Non-profit institutions serving households Government education services Other municipal government services Total , ,195 3,375 1,898 12,865 * Total values do not reflect the sum of individual cells as industries and jurisdictions with relatively minor jobs impacts have been omitted. 7 THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM OPERATION OF CANADA S ENERGY PIPELINES OCTOBER 2013
10 D. Impacts from operation of all transmission pipelines: crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas As indicated in Table 6, operation of all of Canada s energy transmission pipelines contributed $8.8 billion to GDP in 2012 according to the I-O Model simulation $3.9 billion in Alberta alone, $1.6 billion in Saskatchewan, and $1.4 billion in Ontario. Each of those provinces and Manitoba were beneficiaries of large direct impacts. Labour income was impacted by energy pipeline transmission to the extent of nearly $2 billion. This was concentrated in Alberta (40 per cent), Ontario (20 per cent) and Saskatchewan (19 per cent). Table 6 Impacts from Operation of Crude Oil, NGL & Natural Gas Transmission Pipelines Gross Domestic Product Millions of 2012 $ BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS Other Canada Direct , , ,827.1 Indirect ,272.1 Direct & Indirect , , , ,099.2 Induced Total , , , ,824.6 Labour Income Millions of 2012 $ BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS Other Canada Direct Indirect Direct & Indirect ,612.1 Induced Total ,947.3 Number of Full-time Equivalent Jobs BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS Other Canada Direct 346 2,526 2, ,950 Indirect 1,721 3,120 1, , ,351 Direct & Indirect 2,067 5,646 4,123 1,406 3, ,301 Induced 848 1, , ,718 Total 2,915 7,591 5,037 1,858 5,360 1, ,019 8 THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM OPERATION OF CANADA S ENERGY PIPELINES OCTOBER 2013
11 Operation of all of the energy transmission pipelines sustained an estimated 25,000 full-time equivalent jobs in Canada in 2012, thereby supporting many households. About half of these were in Alberta and Saskatchewan, but other provinces also benefited considerably, especially Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec. As already noted, about $8.8 billion in terms of 2012 dollars would be added to Canada s GDP by operation of the crude oil, NGL and natural gas transmission pipelines in a single year. Over a thirtyyear period approximately $130 billion would be added to GDP in terms of 2012 dollars assuming that gross revenue from operations increases at an annual rate of 2.2 per cent during the period and that a discount rate of 7.7 per cent is appropriate for calculating the present value of the stream of additions to GDP. This also assumes that the coefficients in the current version of the I-O Model continue to be valid which, of course, won t be the case. In the overly simplistic case where the revenue growth rate and the discount rate are assumed to be identical, the contributions to GDP over a 30-year period would simply sum to $8.8 billion x 30 or about $264 billion in terms of 2012 dollars. As more transmission pipelines are added, such as liquid pipeline expansion to the west and east coasts, and natural gas from northeast British Columbia to LNG processing and export facilities in the vicinity of Kitimat and Prince Rupert, the overall annual contributions from operation of the pipeline system to GDP, labour income and jobs in a wide range of industries will mount. E. Impact summary Table 7 provides a summary of the impact from operation of Canada s energy transmission pipeline system during 2012 on the Gross Domestic Product, Labour Income and Jobs. Table 7 Summary: Overall Impacts from Operation of Canada s Energy Transmission Pipelines in 2012 Crude oil and NGL transmission Model Version GDP ($ billions) Labour Income ($ billions) Full-time Job-equivalent Open* ,970 Closed ,154 Natural gas transmission Open* ,331 Total Closed ,865 Open* ,301 Closed ,019 * Excludes induced effects 9 THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM OPERATION OF CANADA S ENERGY PIPELINES OCTOBER 2013
12 Detailed Methodology This report is a summary of the findings from using the most recent (2009) version of the Statistics Canada Interregional Input/Output (I-O) Model to evaluate the Canadian economic impacts from the operation of Canada s energy transmission pipelines. The analysis was undertaken by Gerry Angevine of Angevine Economic Consulting Ltd., in collaboration with Rick DeWolf of R. DeWolf Consulting during the summer of 2013 on behalf of the Canadian Energy Pipeline Association (CEPA). The data required to perform the analysis, essentially gross operating revenues was obtained from annual reports and information filings submitted to regulatory authorities. In the case of private, non-regulated companies CEPA helpfully provided some information; in other cases the required operating revenue data was estimated. Essentially, the I-O framework is a data accounting structure that is consistent with the national income and expenditure system of accounts. In this case, the statistical relationships embedded in the I-O framework were used to estimate the direct, indirect and induced impacts from transmission pipeline operations on Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP), labour income and employment (full-time job equivalents). Total annual gross revenues from the operation of crude oil and liquids transmission pipelines and natural gas transmission pipelines in 2012 were assigned separately to the appropriate industry classifications in the Model on a provincial/territorial basis. For pipelines that had segments in more than one province or territory, shares of their annual revenue equivalent to the per centage share of head office administrative expenses of total expenses were assigned to the province where the company was headquartered. The remaining revenue was allocated to each of the provinces in which the pipeline in question operated on the basis of estimated throughput volumes. Since the Model was shocked according to the annual gross revenue of pipelines of several kinds, if the 2012 operating revenue of one or more of the larger companies was unusually high or low as the result of special, non-recurring circumstances then the impacts reported here for its/their respective group(s) of pipelines are too high or low, accordingly. In any case, the estimates generated by the Model are simply that. That is, the numbers presented in any of the results tables provided in this report cannot be taken to imply exact measures. Rather, they are indicative only of general levels of magnitude, subject, of course, to the limitations of the methodology. The Model provides information for each of three kinds of impacts: direct, indirect and induced. Direct impacts measure the initial requirements of additional output. The direct impact on the output of an industry is the change in output required to meet a one dollar change in final demand. Associated with this change, there will be direct impacts on GDP, jobs, and imports. 10 THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM OPERATION OF CANADA S ENERGY PIPELINES OCTOBER 2013
13 Indirect impacts arise from inter-industry purchases as other industries respond to the increased demands of the industry that is shocked in the model. This includes all the chain reactions to output along the production stream since each of the products purchased will require, in turn, the production of various inputs. Induced impacts measure the changes in the production of goods and services in response to consumer expenditures induced by the increase in household income (i.e., wages) generated by the production of the direct and indirect requirements. For confidentiality reasons Statistics Canada is unwilling to break out the direct and indirect impacts for provinces in which there is only one or two pipelines of a particular kind (e.g. gas transmission) unless the pipelines consent to allow this. For this reason, direct and indirect impacts were not available for gas transmission in the case of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. For natural gas transmission, the estimated direct and indirect effects for both New Brunswick and Nova Scotia are based on the shares of the direct and indirect effects with respect to the sum of those effects for Saskatchewan and Manitoba combined. 1 All dollar values used in the analysis were in terms of 2012 constant dollars. No adjustments were needed to accommodate inflation because the I-O Model elements are structural coefficients rather than income or expenditure components. Input-Output Models utilize fixed coefficients which do not take economies of scale, technological changes, externalities, or price changes into account. Because firms typically adjust production technologies in time (during which the I-O technological coefficients become outdated) impact analyses based on I-O Models may overestimate the effects. For example, as production technologies are introduced to improve operating efficiencies, the annual economic impacts of operations on final demand will tend to be reduced from those indicated by the Model. For this reason one must exercise considerable caution when projecting I-O Model results for a particular year. The fact that I-O Model analysis is inherently static (zero adjustment period) and there is no way to account for negative (i.e. offsetting) impacts as workers leave one job to go to another (pipeline construction instead of farming, for example), or for the consequences of higher prices arising from increased final demand, also suggests that the impacts are at risk of being overstated even for the year at hand. It is generally acknowledged that the open version of the model which does not address the induced (consumption) effects underestimates the economic impacts and that the closed version, which does, overestimates them because of the assumption of constant consumption behavior and fixed expenditure relative to income. For this reason the two measures are often considered as indicating the lower and upper bounds of the impacts. 1 This assumes that the relationship of direct effects to indirect effects in both Nova Scotia and New Brunswick are approximately the same as in Saskatchewan and Manitoba combined. 11 THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM OPERATION OF CANADA S ENERGY PIPELINES OCTOBER 2013
14 Energy Pipelines Included in the Analysis The major energy pipelines in the business of transmitting crude oil, liquids or natural gas that were included in the analysis are listed below. Where a pipeline or pipeline system extends into the United States, only revenues with respect to operations in Canada were included. Crude oil transmission (including diluent) Access Pipeline Enbridge Athabasca and Waupisoo Pipelines Enbridge Line 9 Enbridge Mainline (ex. revenues from refined petroleum product and NGL transportation) Enbridge Norman Wells to Zama Enbridge Saskatchewan System (excluding gathering portions) Enbridge Southern Lights Inter Pipeline Fund (3 oil sands lines) Kinder Morgan Canada Inc. Trans Mountain Pipeline Pembina Pipeline (bitumen and conventional heavy oil pipeline business) Plains Midstream Canada s Aurora, Bodo, Milk River, Wapella, Rangeland and Rainbow Pipelines Portland-Montreal Pipeline Spectra (Express) Pipeline Suncor Oil Sands Pipeline TransCanada Keystone Pipeline NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS (NGL) TRANSMISSION 2 AltaGas Ltd. Eastern Delivery Kinder Morgan Canada Cochin Pipeline Enbridge Mainline (NGL portion of total revenue) Keyera pipeline to Edmonton Terminal Plains Midstream Canada s Windsor-Sarnia and Sarnia Downstream Pipelines and System 2 Trans Mountain carries some NGLs but the revenue share was not provided. Instead, that revenue is included with crude oil. Similarly data on the Spectra NGL line from Alberta to Manitoba was not available. 12 THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM OPERATION OF CANADA S ENERGY PIPELINES OCTOBER 2013
15 NATURAL GAS TRANSMISSION Alliance AltaGas ATCO Pipelines Emera Brunswick Pipeline Manitoba Hydro (Centra Gas MB transmission component) Many Islands Pipeline PNG West (part only: rest considered to be distribution) Spectra Maritimes & Northeast Spectra Union Gas Limited (transmission and storage component) Spectra Westcoast Transmission TransCanada Alberta System (NGTL, but ex. gathering portion) TransCanada BC TransCanada Foothills Zones 6, 7, and 9 TransCanada Mainline TransCanada TQM TransGas (except gathering) 13 THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM OPERATION OF CANADA S ENERGY PIPELINES OCTOBER 2013
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