Canada s Energy Future

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1 Canada s Energy Future Canadian Responsible Investment Conference Victoria June 20, 2011 Dave Collyer, President The Global Energy Context Significant energy demand growth: Population, standards of living Need all forms of energy: Increasing role for renewables Continuing reliance on hydrocarbons Increasing role for nonconventional crude oil & natural gas Technology is a key lever for sustainable growth Production Cost competitiveness Environmental performance Global Primary Energy Demand Current Policies Scenario

2 Canada s Energy Circumstances Abundant resources. Energy development / production key economic driver. Competitiveness challenges. Large exporter (particularly compared to OECD). Regional diversity in energy production & consumption. High per capita energy consumption. Relatively clean electricity generation sector. Mixed track record on value added and clean tech. High level of connectivity with U.S. Global Crude Oil Reserves by Country billion barrels Includes 170 billion barrels of oil sands reserves World Oil Reserves Restricted (79%) Open to Private Sector 30 Open to Private Sector Oil Sands 56% Other 44% Saudi Arabia Ve nezuela Canada Iran Iraq Kuwait Abu Dhabi Russia Libya Nigeria Kazhakhstan Qatar China United States Source: Oil & Gas Journal Dec. 2010

3 Canadian Oil Sands and Conventional Oil Production Forecast ( ) 5,000 4,500 Actual Forecast thousand bpd 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Atlantic Canada In Situ Mining 1,000 Conventional Heavy 500 Pentanes/Condensate Conventional Light Canadian & U.S. Jobs & Economic Benefits Construction & operations Upstream Pipelines Upgraders & refineries Employment Direct & indirect Supply of goods and services Economic benefits (CERI study - over 25 years) Economic impact generated $2.1 trillion (Canada) & $520 billion (U.S.) Employment 11.7 million person-years (Canada) & 5.7 million person-years (U.S.) Federal & provincial tax ~ $400 billion; provincial royalties $300 billion

4 Canadian Public Opinion - Oil & Gas Is it in Canada s best interest to have a strong oil and gas sector? 8% - Don t Know 14% - Not in Canada s Interest 78% - Yes, in Canada s Interest Canadian Public Opinion Which is the best goal when it comes to the oil sands? To develop the oil sands with an effort to limit the environmental impacts To stop the development of the oil sands altogether To focus on maximizing the full economic benefits of the oil sands resource Total 74% 17% 9% Conservative 78% 4% 18% Liberal 79% 12% 9% NDP 65% 31% 4% Green 58% 38% 4% BQ 78% 20% 2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

5 Social License & Oil Sands Oil Sands Social License = Performance + Communications 3E policy framework Robust regional planning: System-wide metrics Effective monitoring Transparent data 3 rd party validation World class regulation Technology & innovation Collaboration Proactive Transparent Verifiable Visible leadership Broad portfolio: mainstream social media directly & via 3 rd parties Canada, U.S., Europe, Asia Responsible Canadian Energy Oil Sands Report Principles & Performance Measurement & Reporting Transparency

6 Global Energy-Related GHG Emissions Global Emissions Canada s Emissions OECD Europe Non-OECD Europe & Eurasia Industrial Processes & Waste Japan Transport Agriculture & Forestry China India Oil Sands Canada Australia/New Zealand Residential Other Fossil Fuel Other Manufacturing, Commercial & Construction United States Electricity & Heat Generation GHG emissions from oil sands: ~ 1/1000th of global GHG emissions 6.5% of Canada s GHG emissions 11 North American GHG Emissions (2009): Coal-Fired Power and Oil Sands AK OR MT ND MN Legend NV AZ UT 100 megatonnes 50 megatonnes 15 megatonnes WY NM CO SD NE KS OK TX IA MO AR LA WI IL MS TN IN AL MI KY OH GA WV FL SC VA NC NY NJ NH Canadian oil sands Canadian coal-fired power generating plants U.S. Coal fired power generating plants Sources: U.S. DOE/EIA & Environment Canada

7 Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions Energy Efficiency Using less energy input Reducing energy waste/losses Capturing waste heat Cogeneration power/steam g co2 eq./mj Oil Sands GHG Emissions/bbl 29% Improved recovery processes Lower temperature extraction Additives to reduce use of both water and energy (steam) Use of electricity rather than steam Underground combustion rather than steam Carbon capture & sequestration Most effective at upgraders CAPP Climate Policy Principles Principles Balance - 3Es Efficiency efficient actions Technology stimulate investment Predictability & stability support investment Competitiveness compatibility w/ major trading partners Distributional Fairness share cost burden equitably Harmonization across jurisdictions in Canada Administrative simplicity National carbon policy framework consistent with above principles

8 Canada s Energy Future Parallel Paths Approach - Prosperity from growth in responsible hydrocarbon production and renewable energy. Why? Recognizes need for change Recognizes Canadian reality Takes best of both approach Keeps options for future open Provides an opportunity to find common ground among diverse interests Market- Based Principles Primary reliance on market forces to drive energy production and consumption (targeted intervention to address barriers to entry and enable market-based solutions) Costs of transformation of energy system should ultimately be borne by consumers making informed choices Key Enablers for Parallel Paths 3E policy framework environment, economy, energy New paradigm in technology & innovation - collaboration Fiscal competitiveness and regulatory reform Market diversification & growth (commodities + technology) Unwavering commitment to continuous improvement in environmental and social performance across the energy system Progressive shift to lower carbon domestic energy supply and use - enabled in part by a balanced, pragmatic carbon policy Action on energy conservation and efficiency Broad and sustained commitment to energy education A step change toward developing the workforce of the future

9 Royal Society of Canada Report Environmental & Health Impacts of Canada s Oil Sands Industry Science-based, independent analysis of the environmental aspects of Canada s oil sands Addresses many of the issues and perceptions of oil sands development: Reclamation is not keeping pace, but sustainable reclamation is achievable Water use does not threaten viability of the Athabasca River No impact on Athabasca water quality/ecosystem and no evidence of impact on human health in downstream communities Tailings technologies are emerging, but tailings inventory is growing GHG emissions per barrel are reducing but growing production creates a challenge in meeting international commitments Minimal impacts on regional air quality December 2010

10 Full Cycle GHG Emissions 120 g CO2e/MJ gasoline Range of Common U.S. Imported Crude Oils On a life cycle basis, oil sands have similar GHG emissions to other sources of oil Full cycle emissions or wells to wheels is the appropriate measure to use in setting carbon policies 20 GHG Emissions from Production and Refining 0 Saudi Mexico Iraq Venezuela Nigeria Imported Wtd. Avg. US Gulf Coast California Heavy Oil Sands Avg GHG Emissions from Gasoline Consumption Source: Jacobs Consultancy, Life Cycle Assessment Comparison for North America and Imported Crudes, June 2009

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