Gas Decline Curves in the Marcellus Shale Play. Terry Engelder Pennsylvania State University

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1 Gas Decline Curves in the Marcellus Shale Play Terry Engelder Pennsylvania State University

2 Madison Avenue call in What happens if Marcellus production leads to a glut of gas? Fall 2007 roll out of Marcellus 10/07-1/12 42 months Marcellus Talk #242 Cumulative Attendance 14,747 1/08-10/11 > 319 reporters 10/07-1/12 public testimony > 1000 hours

3 Yesterday Bentek: Spot market: $1.00 Mcf in near future

4 Days before present for USA gas business: Natural Gas Price Collapse 1 day - Bentek prediction: $1 spot market gas 860 days - Madison Avenue rolls out Marcellus Model for Pennsylvania Natural Gas Production 2920 days - Devon shifts to Barnett horizontals 4475 days - Mitchell massive slickwater frack 12,045 days - First Appalachian horizontal well Shale Gas Shale Gas

5 Days before present for USA gas business: Petroleum Price Collapse 1 day - Bentek prediction: $1 spot market gas 860 days - Madison Avenue rolls out Marcellus Pennsylvania Petroleum Production 2920 days - Devon shifts to Barnett horizontals 4475 days - Mitchell massive slickwater frack 12,045 days - First Appalachian horizontal well

6

7 Oil and gas production rates decline as a function of time. Loss of reservoir pressure is cause. Fitting a line through performance history and assuming this same line trends into the future forms the basis for decline curve analysis. Decline curve analysis is a graphical procedure used for analyzing declining production rates and forecasting future performance of oil and gas wells. Physics of the process captured only indirectly!

8 Arps (1945 & 1956) formulated a comprehensive set of line equations defining exponential, hyperbolic and harmonic decline curves. Brons (1963) and Fetkovich (1983) recognized that exponential decline reflects a single phase, incompressible fluid production from a closed reservoir. This is a constant pressure solution to the diffusivity equation

9 Closed Reservoir (Sandstone) {steady decline = same decline rate each period} Reservoir Boundary Flow to well is governed by a diffusion equation known as Darcey s Law (requires pressure gradient) Reservoir so permeable that pressure is brought down immediately throughout reservoir

10 Arps Exponential Equation (a single phase, incompressible fluid production from a closed reservoir) (gas drive maintains pressure gradient) q i = initial production q(t) = production with time (t - days) D i = initial decline rate (t -1 ) ( t) q 1 = q D e i i t Reservoir so permeable that pressure is brought down immediately throughout reservoir

11 Arps Exponential Equation (a single phase, incompressible fluid production from a closed reservoir) (gas drive maintains pressure) Rate time data by log-log curve matching ( t) q 1 = q D e i i t Semilog rate-time curve Dimensionless Time (D i t) Dimensionless time (D i t) Rate (q(t)/qi) Rate (q(t)/qi) D i = 1 t -1

12 Arps Exponential Equation (a single phase, incompressible fluid production from a closed reservoir) (gas drive maintains pressure) 1 Standard decline curve ( t) q 1 = t q i e 14 Cumulative production curve Rate (q(t)/qi) Cumulative Production Time Time Oriskany Sandstone in the Appalachian Basin

13 Open Reservoir (Shale) {decline rate decreases each year} Reservoir so impermeable that pressure is brought down gradually across reservoir

14 Fetkovich (1980) (developed a comprehensive set of type curves) q q ( t) i = 1 1 [ 1+ bdit]b dimensionless flow rate dimensionless time D i = 1 t -1

15 Flow Rate relative to Initial Flow Rate Rate (q(t)/qi) Arps Rate-Time Equations Time (t) Dissolved Gas-Drive Reservoir Gas Shale q q ( t) i = Exponential Decline (b=0) Arps Hyperbolic (b=0.5) Harmonic Decline (b=1) 1 1 [ 1+ bdit]b Arps Hyperbolic Decline (b=1.3) D i = 1 t -1

16 Cumulative Production Curves Gas Shale Produces for Long Time 35 Cululative Production Dissolved Gas-Drive Reservoir Depletes Rapidly Exponential Hyperbolic (b<1) Harmonic Hyperbolic (b>1) Time

17 Closed reservoir (sandstone-like) decline

18 De Golyer and MacNaughton takes a Barnett decline curve and fits the latter portion to a straight line. hyperbolic decline exponential decline open reservoir closed reservoir

19 Jenkins & Ilk, 2010 AAPG 4 horizontal wells (map view) Open Reservoir vertical hole Drainage area expands around each stimulated reservoir volume

20 Jenkins & Ilk, 2010 AAPG 4 horizontal wells Closed Reservoir Drainage interference prevents further expansion of reservoir volume

21 132 shot; 11 fractured; 19 natural 162 wells 157 wells (10 yrs) 138 wells (20 yrs) b = Initial Decline = 31 % 71 wells (30 yrs) Exponential behavior not observed Vanorsdale, 1985, SPE 14446

22 Antero (Harrison Cty, WVA) PIP = 10 MMcf/d Chesapeake Marcellus Pro Forma

23 Normalized Production: 8 Logan County (WVA) gas wells Production Period (8 to 23 years) 1 Vanorsdale s Data (20 years) Percentage of Best Year 0.1 Chesapeake Pro Forma Decline Curve Years Arbitrary County ---- Arbitrary Wells Vertical Gas Wells

24 Chesapeake (Marshall Cty, WVA) Percentage of Best Month Month Chesapeake Marcellus Pro Forma

25 278 MMcf R. SMITH 2H MONTHLY FLOWRATE/MAX MONTH OF PRODUCTION 392 MMcf

26 171 MMcf R. SMITH 1H MONTHLY FLOWRATE/MAX MONTH OF PRODUCTION 278 MMcf R. SMITH 2H MONTHLY FLOWRATE/IP MMcf R. SMITH 3H MONTH OF PRODUCTION MONTHLY FLOWRATE/MAX MONTH OF PRODUCTION

27 Texas A&M: Power Law-Exponential Decline Modified to power law loss-ratio rate decline ( ) = n t n D t D i e q t q 1 ( ) [ ] n D i t t D i e q t q =

28 Production Plot H Gas Rate (Mcfd) bcf Dry Gas Area First Year Decline 73% Instaneous Decline Rate 465% B 1.65 Initial Production (Mcfd) 8,961 Exp Year 10 Exp Rate 5% Years of Production Calculated EUR (Mcf) 9,408,637 8,611, /23/09 04/02/10 07/11/10 10/19/10 01/27/11 05/07/11 08/15/11 11/23/11 Days on production Gas Rate DC

29 Production Plot Bradford County: Semi log 10,000,000 1,000,000 Gas Rate (Mcfd) 100,000 10,000 1,000 DC Production Data First Year Decline 60% Instaneous Decline Rate 220% B 1.70 Initial Production (Mcfd) 4,500 Exp Year 10 Exp Rate 5% Years of Production Calculated EUR (Mcf) 6,742,318 7,396, Days on production

30 Early Stimulation and Joints at Taughannock Falls propping causes microseismic events S H Perfs S H

31 Reasons for Long Hyperbolic decline in Marcellus Horizontal well has access to unbounded reservoir in the vertical direction Natural fractures allow access to much larger reservoir volume Drainage more complete in naturally fractured gas shale

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